Predicting the onset of diabetes-related complications after a diabetes diagnosis with machine learning algorithms.

AIMS: Using machine learning algorithms and administrative data, we aimed to predict the risk of being diagnosed with several diabetes-related complications after one-, two- and three-year post-diabetes diagnosis. METHODS: We used longitudinal data from administrative registers of 610,019 individuals in Catalonia with a diagnosis of diabetes and checked the presence of several complications after diabetes onset from 2013 to 2017: hypertension, renal failure, myocardial infarction, cardiovascular disease, retinopathy, congestive heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral vascular disease and stroke. Four different machine learning (ML) algorithms (logistic regression (LR), Decision tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB)) will be used to assess their prediction performance and to evaluate the prediction accuracy of complications changes over the period considered. RESULTS: 610,019 people with diabetes were included. After three years since diabetes diagnosis, the area under the curve values ranged from 60% (retinopathy) to 69% (congestive heart failure), whereas accuracy rates varied between 60% (retinopathy) to 75% (hypertension). RF was the most relevant technique for hypertension, myocardial and retinopathy, and LR for the rest of the comorbidities. The Shapley additive explanations values showed that age was associated with an elevated risk for all diabetes-related complications except retinopathy. Gender, other comorbidities, co-payment levels and age were the most relevant factors for comorbidity diagnosis prediction. CONCLUSIONS: Our ML models allow for the identification of individuals newly diagnosed with diabetes who are at increased risk of developing diabetes-related complications. The prediction performance varied across complications but within acceptable ranges as prediction tools.

Does becoming an informal caregiver make your health worse? A longitudinal analysis across Europe.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether becoming an informal caregiver in Europe has a significant effect on health status, compared with non-informal caregivers, distinguishing by place of residence (in or outside the home of the care receivers) and country. And to determine whether there is an adaptation effect after the passage of time. METHODS: The Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (2004-2017) was used. Propensity score matching was applied to analyse the differences in the health status of people who became informal carers between different periods and those who did not. We considered short-term (2-3 years after the shock) and medium-term effects (4-5 years). RESULTS: In the short term, the probability of those who became informal caregivers being depressed was 3.7% points (p.p.) higher than among their counterparts, being higher among those who lived in the care recipients' homes (12.8 p.p.) and those providing care outside and at home (12.9 p.p.). Significant differences in the probability of being depressed were also observed by country (Southern and Eastern Europe), and in countries with low expenditure on long-term care (LTC). Those effects remained in the medium term. No significant effects were found in cancer, stroke, heart attack and diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: The results might help to concentrate a major effort of any policy in the field of mental health on the period immediately after the negative shock, especially for those caregivers who live with the care receiver, for those in Southern and Eastern Europe and in countries with low expenditure on LTC.

Healthcare cost expenditures associated to frailty and sarcopenia.

OBJECTIVES: Frailty and sarcopenia have been related with adverse events, including hospitalization. However, its combined effect with hospitalization-related outcomes, including costs, has not been previously investigated. Our purpose was to explore how frailty, sarcopenia and its interaction could impact on healthcare expenditures. METHODS: 1358 community-dwelling older adults from the Toledo Study of Healthy Ageing (TSHA) were included. Sarcopenia was measured using the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health criteria fitted to our cohort. Frailty was defined according to Frailty Trait Scale 5 (FTS5) and the Frailty Index fitted to the cut-off points of TSHA population. Hospitalization costs were taken from hospital records and costs were attributed according to Diagnostic-Related Groups, using as the cost base year 2015. Two-part regression models were used to analyze the relationship between frailty and sarcopenia and hospital admission, number of hospitalizations, length of stay and hospitalization costs. RESULTS: Sarcopenia was associated only with the probability of being admitted to hospital. Frailty was also associated with higher hospital use, regardless of the frailty tool used, but in addition increased hospital admission costs at follow-up by 23.72% per year and by 19.73% in the full model compared with non-frail individuals. The presence of sarcopenia did not increase the costs of frailty but, by opposite, frailty significantly increased the costs in people with sarcopenia, reaching by 46-56%/patient/year at follow-up. Older adults with frailty and sarcopenia had a higher risk of hospitalization, disregarding the tool used to assess frailty, and higher hospitalization costs (FTS5) in the full model, at the cross-sectional and at the follow-up level. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty is associated with increased hospitalization costs and accounts for the potential effects of sarcopenia.

Physical performance measures in frailty screening: diagnostic and prognostic accuracy in the Toledo Study of Healthy Ageing.

INTRODUCTION: The present study aimed to explore the diagnostic and prognostic accuracy of standard and population-specific Physical Performance Measures (PPMs) cut-off points for frailty screening. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Population-based study including 2328 subjects from the Toledo Study of Healthy Aging (age = 76.37 ± 6.78). Data related to frailty status and PPMs was collected at baseline visit (2011-2013). Mortality and hospitalization were ascertained up to March 2019 and December 2017, respectively, whereas disability onset and worsening were evaluated in the 2015-2017 visit. METHODS: Gait speed and Short Physical Performance Battery population-specific cut-off points for frailty were computed using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis. Head-to-head comparison of associations with adverse events against existing reference values (SPPB≤6, GS < 0.8 m/s) and classical (Frailty Phenotype, Frailty Index) and newly incorporated frailty tools (12- and 5-item Frailty Trait Scale) were explored through logistic and Cox regressions. Predictive ability was compared through areas under the curves (AUCs) for disability onset/worsening and integrated AUCs for mortality and hospitalization (time-censoring adverse events). RESULTS: PPMs population-specific cut-off points (SPPB ≤7 and GS ≤ 0.75 m/s for males; SPPB ≤4 and GS ≤ 0.5 for females) outperformed published reference thresholds in terms of diagnostic accuracy. Frailty identified through PPMs was associated with adverse events (death, hospitalization and incident disability) similarly to that assessed using the newly incorporated tools and showed similar prognostic accuracy (mortality [IAUCs≈0.7], hospitalization [IAUCs≈0.8] and disability onset/worsening [AUCs≈0.62]), except for the tool used to assess frailty. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that PPMs might serve as the first screen to identify candidates for further frailty assessment and exploration of underlying mechanisms, allowing opportunistic on-time screening in different settings (community and primary care) in which frailty instruments are rarely implementable.

The Effects of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 on the Reported Mental Health Symptoms of Nonprofessional Carers: An Analysis Across Europe.

OBJECTIVES: This study tries to analyze how the crisis generated by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has affected the reported mental health symptoms of informal caregivers in different European countries. METHODS: The Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe-COVID-19 was used, collecting information from the beginning of June 2020 to August 2020 about individuals' state of health and the care they received. Several probit regression models were used to analyze the differences in the probability of (1) being sad or depressed, (2) being anxious or nervous, (3) having difficulty sleeping, and (4) feeling lonely, between individuals who provided informal care and individuals who did not. Several subanalyses by geographic area, mortality rates due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and long-term care expenditure were also performed. RESULTS: Since the outbreak of COVID-19, informal caregivers have had a higher probability of being sad or depressed of 8 percentage points (p.p.), a 7.1 p.p. higher probability of being anxious or nervous, and a 5.9 p.p. higher probability of having difficulty sleeping than non-caregivers. Informal caregivers in Southern Europe have had an 8 p.p. higher probability of being sad or depressed than non-caregivers. In Eastern Europe, this difference in probability reaches 9.7 p.p. Finally, in countries with higher mortality rates due to COVID-19, there have been greater differences in terms of being sad or depressed between caregivers and non-caregivers, regardless of expenditure on long-term care. CONCLUSIONS: Since the outbreak of COVID-19, informal caregivers in Europe have had a higher probability of reporting mental health symptoms than non-caregivers.

The employment situation of people living with HIV: a closer look at the effects of the 2008 economic crisis.

This study aims to assess the determinants of employment probabilities among people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) during a 15-year period (2001-2016) in Spain, focusing on the possible effects of occurrences such as the 2008 economic crisis. The probability of people living with HIV having a job was evaluated by applying several multivariate probit regression models. Differences between the employment status of people living with HIV and that of the general population were evaluated by applying genetic matching regression models. With respect to the former evaluation, for people living with HIV, the period before the crisis (2001-2007) was associated with a probability of being employed that was 2.43 percentage points (p.p.) higher than during the crisis, and the period after the crisis (2014-2016) with a probability that was 7.58 p.p. lower than during the crisis. Greater effects were also observed among males, the probability of being in employment before the economic crisis being higher (by 2.26 p.p.) and lower after the crisis (- 3.41 p.p.) than among women, and among those infected through drug use (6.18 p.p. and - 7.34 p.p. before and after the crisis, respectively), than among those infected through sex. When analysing the differences with respect to the general population, people living with HIV reported lower probabilities of being employed: by - 18 p.p. before the crisis, by - 15 p.p. during the crisis (years 2008-2013) and by - 10 p.p. after the crisis, implying a convergence in the prospects of employment with the passage of the years. Those differences were greater for people of basic educational level (- 23 to - 16 p.p.), a weaker immune system (- 34 p.p. to - 21 p.p.) and those infected through the use of drugs (- 31 p.p. to - 26 p.p.). Although the results suggest that the economic crisis had a greater effect on the employment prospects of people living with HIV, and that effect is still felt by that group, our findings also point towards a convergence of their employment prospects with those of the general population, over the 15-year period assessed. An analysis of the employment situation of people living with HIV might have helped when designing job-seeking methods and policies on the working environment, especially through the 15-year period considered, when the economic crisis had a greater effect on the job market.

Assessing the Effect of Including Social Costs in Economic Evaluations of Diabetes-Related Interventions: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: The economic burden of diabetes from a societal perspective is well documented in the cost-of-illness literature. However, the effect of considering social costs in the results and conclusions of economic evaluations of diabetes-related interventions remains unknown. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the inclusion of social costs (productivity losses and/or informal care) might change the results and conclusions of economic evaluations of diabetes-related interventions. METHODS: A systematic review was designed and launched on Medline and the Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry from the University of Tufts, from the year 2000 until 2018. Included studies had to fulfil the following criteria: i) being an original study published in a scientific journal, ii) being an economic evaluation of an intervention on diabetes, iii) including social costs, iv) being written in English, v) using quality-adjusted life years as outcome, and vi) separating the results according to the perspective applied. RESULTS: From the 691 records identified, 47 studies (6.8%) were selected. Productivity losses were included in 45 of the selected articles (73% used the human capital approach) whereas informal care costs in only 13 (when stated, the opportunity cost method was used in seven studies and the replacement cost in one). The 47 studies resulted in 110 economic evaluation estimations. The inclusion of social costs changed the conclusions in 8 estimations (17%), 6 of them switching from not cost-effective from the healthcare perspective to cost-effective or dominant from the societal perspective. Considering social costs altered the results from cost-effective to dominant in 9 estimations (19%). CONCLUSION: When social costs are considered, the results and conclusions of economic evaluations performed in diabetes-related interventions can alter. Wide methodological variations have been observed, which limit the comparability of studies and advocate for the inclusion of a wider perspective via the consideration of social costs in economic evaluations and methodological guidelines relating to their estimation and valuation.

Dependent, Poorer, and More Care-Demanding? An Analysis of the Relationship between Being Dependent, Household Income, and Formal and Informal Care Use in Spain.

Population ageing is one of the current challenges that most societies are facing, with great implications for health systems and social services, including long-term care. This increasing long-term care use is particularly rising for dependent older people, motivating the implementation of regional dependency laws to ensure their care needs' coverage. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) from the year 2004 until 2017, the aim of this study is to assess the impact that the Spanish System for Personal Autonomy and Dependency might have on (i) household income, according to different needs for care levels, by running Generalized Linear Models (GLMs); and (ii) formal and informal care use depending on the income-related determinant through the performance of logit random-effects regression models. We show that the different degrees of needs for personal care are associated with a lower household income, being associated with an income reduction from €3300 to nearly €3800, depending on the covariates included, per year for the more severely in-need-for-care older adults. Moreover, our findings point towards a higher use of formal and informal care services by the moderate and severe dependents groups, regardless of the household income group and time period. Bearing in mind the demographic ageing, our results highlight the need for the identification of potentially vulnerable populations and the efficient planification of long-term care systems and social support services.

Can the Consideration of Societal Costs Change the Recommendation of Economic Evaluations in the Field of Rare Diseases? An Empirical Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To analyze whether the adoption of a societal perspective would alter the results and conclusions of economic evaluations for rare disease-related healthcare technologies. METHODS: A search strategy involving all the active substances considered as orphan drugs by the European Medicines Agency plus a list of 76 rare diseases combined with economic-related terms was conducted on Medline and the Cost-Effectiveness Registry from the beginning of 2000 until November 2018. We included studies that considered quality-adjusted life years as an outcome, were published in a scientific journal, were written in English, included informal care costs or productivity losses, and separated the results according to the applied perspective. RESULTS: We found 14 articles that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Productivity losses were considered in 12 studies, the human capital approach being the method most frequently used. Exclusively, informal care was considered in 2 articles, being valued through the opportunity cost method. The 14 articles selected resulted in 26 economic evaluation estimations, from which incremental cost-utility ratio values changed from cost-effective to dominant in 3 estimates, but the consideration of societal costs only modified the authors' conclusion in 1 study. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of societal costs in the economic evaluation of rare diseases did not affect the conclusions of the studies except in a single specific case. In those studies where the societal perspective was considered, we did not find significant changes in the economic evaluation results due to the higher costs of treatments and the low quality-adjusted life-years gained.

Considering the societal perspective in economic evaluations: a systematic review in the case of depression.

BACKGROUND: Depressive disorders are associated with a high burden of disease. However, due to the burden posed by the disease on not only the sufferers, but also on their relatives, there is an ongoing debate about which costs to include and, hence, which perspective should be applied. Therefore, the aim of this paper was to examine whether the change between healthcare payer and societal perspective leads to different conclusions of cost-utility analyses in the case of depression. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted to identify economic evaluations of interventions in depression, launched on Medline and the Cost-Effectiveness Registry of the Tufts University using a ten-year time horizon (2008-2018). In a two-stepped screening process, cost-utility studies were selected by means of specified inclusion and exclusion criteria. Subsequently, relevant findings was extracted and, if not fully stated, calculated by the authors of this work. RESULTS: Overall, 53 articles with 92 complete economic evaluations, reporting costs from healthcare payer/provider and societal perspective, were identified. More precisely, 22 estimations (24%) changed their results regarding the cost-effectiveness quadrant when the societal perspective was included. Furthermore, 5% of the ICURs resulted in cost-effectiveness regarding the chosen threshold (2% of them became dominant) when societal costs were included. However, another four estimations (4%) showed the opposite result: these interventions were no longer cost-effective after the inclusion of societal costs. CONCLUSIONS: Summarising the disparities in results and applied methods, the results show that societal costs might alter the conclusions in cost-utility analyses. Hence, the relevance of the perspectives chosen should be taken into account when carrying out an economic evaluation. This systematic review demonstrates that the results of economic evaluations can be affected by different methods available for estimating non-healthcare costs.

Malnutrition Prevalence and Burden on Healthcare Resource Use Among Spanish Community-Living Older Adults: Results of a Longitudinal Analysis.

PURPOSE: Little is known about the economic burden that malnutrition or its risk imposes on community-dwelling older adults. Using cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, we assessed the impact of malnutrition risk on healthcare utilization and costs in a cohort of older adults living in Spanish community. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data from 1660 older (range 66-98 years), community-living adults participating in the Toledo Study on Healthy Ageing, waves 2 (year 2011-2013) and 3 (year 2015), were analyzed. Nutritional status categories were defined according to the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) criteria, using a two-step approach. First, screening for malnutrition risk. Once positive, individuals were classified as malnourished according to some phenotypic (body mass index, grip strength, and unintentional weight loss) and etiologic (disease burden/inflammation and reduced food intake or assimilation) criteria. Outcomes assessed included healthcare resources (hospital admissions, number of hospitalizations, length of hospital stay per hospitalization, and number of medications). RESULTS: Fifteen percent of the population was found to be at risk of malnutrition, while 12.6% was malnourished. Overall, patients from both groups were older, had lower functional status, and had more comorbidities compared to well-nourished counterparts (p<0.05). Results of our cross-sectional analysis showed that being at-risk/malnourished was associated with greater medication utilization, higher rates of hospital admission and longer stays, and higher hospitalization costs. However, when adjusting for covariates, malnutrition/risk was associated only with higher hospitalization costs (range: 11-13%). Longitudinal analysis results indicated that malnutrition/risk was significantly associated with more frequent hospitalizations, longer lengths of stay, higher hospitalization costs, and polypharmacy at follow-up. CONCLUSION: Malnutrition or its risk, found in over one of four older adults in the Toledo community, was associated with higher healthcare resource use and increased costs. Such findings suggest that malnutrition risk-screening for older adults, and provision of nutrition counseling and care when needed, hold potential to improve their health and to lower costs of care in the Spanish healthcare system.

Are quality-adjusted medical prices declining for chronic disease? Evidence from diabetes care in four health systems.

Improvements in medical treatment have contributed to rising health spending. Yet there is relatively little evidence on whether the spending increase is "worth it" in the sense of producing better health outcomes of commensurate value-a critical question for understanding productivity in the health sector and, as that sector grows, for deriving an accurate quality-adjusted price index for an entire economy. We analyze individual-level panel data on medical spending and health outcomes for 123,548 patients with type 2 diabetes in four health systems: Japan, The Netherlands, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Using a "cost-of-living" method that measures value based on improved survival, we find a positive net value of diabetes care: the value of improved survival outweighs the added costs of care in each of the four health systems. This finding is robust to accounting for selective survival, end-of-life spending, and a range of values for a life-year or fraction of benefits attributable to medical care. Since the estimates do not include the value from improved quality of life, they are conservative. We, therefore, conclude that the increase in medical spending for management of diabetes is offset by an increase in quality.

The Association Between Poor Glycemic Control and Health Care Costs in People With Diabetes: A Population-Based Study.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the differences in health care costs according to glycemic control in people with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data on health care resource utilization from 100,391 people with type 2 diabetes were extracted from the electronic database used at the Catalan Health Institute. Multivariate regression models were carried out to test the impact of glycemic control (HbA1c) on total health care, hospital admission, and medication costs; model 1 adjusted for a variety of covariates, and model 2 also included micro- and macrovascular complications. Glycemic control was classified as good for HbA1c <7%, fair for ≥7% to <8%, poor for ≥8% to <10%, and very poor for ≥10%. RESULTS: Mean per patient annual direct medical costs were €3,039 ± SD €6,581. Worse glycemic control was associated with higher total health care costs: compared with good glycemic control, health care costs increased by 18% (€509.82) and 23% (€661.35) in patients with very poor and poor glycemic control, respectively, when unadjusted and by €428.3 and €395.1, respectively, in model 2. Medication costs increased by 12% in patients with fair control and by 28% in those with very poor control (model 2). Patients with poor control had a higher probability of hospitalization than those with good control (5% in model 2) and a greater average cost when hospitalization occurred (€811). CONCLUSIONS: Poor glycemic control was directly related to higher total health care, hospitalization, and medication costs. Preventive strategies and good glycemic control in people with type 2 diabetes could reduce the economic impact associated with this disease.

Costs of people with diabetes in relation to average glucose control: an empirical approach controlling for year of onset cohorts.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impact of glycaemic control and time since diabetes diagnosis on care costs incurred by people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Random-effects linear regression models were run to test the impact of average glucose control (HbA1c) and time since diabetes diagnosis on total care spending in people with T2DM, adjusting for year of onset and other covariates. Two datasets were linked, Vektis (healthcare costs reimbursed by the Dutch mandatory health insurance) and Zodiac (clinical and sociodemographic data). The sample includes 22,612 observations, grouped in 5653 individuals from the Northern part of the Netherlands, covering 4 years (2008-2011). RESULTS: A 1% point increase in HbA1c is associated with a 2.2% higher total care costs. However, when treatment modality is included, the results are modified. A 1% point increase (11 mol/mol) in HbA1c is significantly associated with 3.4% higher total care costs for individuals without glucose-lowering treatment. Being treated with insulin is significantly associated with an increase in costs of 30-38% for every additional percentage point of HbA1c, depending on the covariates included. Without controlling for year of onset, an additional year of diabetes duration relates to 2.6% higher care costs, while this is 4.9% controlling for year of onset. The effect of HbA1c and diabetes duration differs between types of costs. CONCLUSION: HbA1c, insulin treatment and diabetes duration are the main drivers of increasing care costs. The results signal the relevance of controlling for HbA1c together with treatment modality, diabetes duration and year of diagnosis effects.

Socioeconomic differences in the associations between diabetes and hospital admission and mortality among older adults in Europe.

The aim of this study is to explain the trends in socioeconomic inequality and diabetes outcomes in terms of hospital admission and death in old European people. The sample includes 73,301 individuals, across 16 European countries taken from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). People being diagnosed of diabetes were more likely to be admitted to hospital than those without diabetes, although its effect dropped after controlling for clinical and functional complications. Largest asscociations were observed in women, people aged 50-65 years old, with medium educational level and medium household income. Diabetes was significant and positively related to mortality in the whole sample. Diabetes is significantly associated with mortality risk especially in males, oldest old people, low education and medium income people. These findings have important implications for public policies to reduce socioeconomic-related health inequalities.

Performance of people with diabetes in the labor market: An empirical approach controlling for complications.

This paper introduces a framework for modelling the impact that diabetes has on employment status and wages, improving the existing literature by controlling for diabetes-related complications. Using the last wave of the Spanish National Health Survey, we find that 1710 adults out of the original sample of 36,087 have diabetes, reporting higher rates of unemployment. Our empirical results suggest that persons with diabetes, compared with non-diabetic persons, have poorer labor outcomes in terms of length of unemployment and lower income. However, diabetes is not significantly associated with unemployment probabilities, suggesting that the burden of diabetes on employment is mediated by lifestyle factors and clinical and functional complications. In addition, there are mixed outcomes to this econometric approach, depending on age and gender, among other factors. This interesting finding has several implications for research and policy on strategies to get lower health inequalities.

Diabetes-Associated Factors as Predictors of Nursing Home Admission and Costs in the Elderly Across Europe.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the main factors associated with the use of nursing home facilities and to calculate their costs among older people with diabetes in Europe. METHODS: The sample included 48,464 individuals aged 50 years and older in 12 European countries participating in the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe study from 2004 to 2010. Cost data were obtained from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the World Bank. Logit regressions were used to assess the impact of diabetes, comorbidities, and functional status on the frequency of nursing home admission. Etiologic fractions were calculated to obtain the nursing home costs attributable to diabetes and its clinical and functional complications. RESULTS: Diabetes is a predictor for institutionalization. When adjusted for clinical and functional complications, impairment of physical function [mild: odds ratio (OR) 3.27; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.60-4.19; moderate: OR 8.48, 95% CI 6.02-13.09; severe: OR 12.53, 95% CI 8.03-19.98] and cognition (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.60-2.68), as well as stroke (OR 2.08, 95% CI 1.61-2.80) showed the strongest association with increased risk of institutionalization. Moreover, this relationship between diabetes, function, and cost was age-dependent, increasing as people get older. Total average nursing home costs incurred by patients with diabetes reached nearly US $13/capita, ranging between countries from US $61 to $0.5. Diabetes-related complications accounted for one-third of these costs (US $4) and, of these, 78% resulted from functional impairment. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes is associated with higher risk of institutionalization even after adjusting for complications. Among them, functional impairment explains the major part of the association between diabetes and nursing home admission and leads to increasing costs.

Risk of Care Home Placement following Acute Hospital Admission: Effects of a Pay-for-Performance Scheme for Dementia.

INTRODUCTION: The Quality and Outcomes Framework, or QOF, rewards primary care doctors (GPs) in the UK for providing certain types of care. Since 2006, GPs have been paid to identify patients with dementia and to conduct an annual review of their mental and physical health. During the review, the GP also assesses the carer's support needs, including impact of caring, and ensures that services are co-ordinated across care settings. In principle, this type of care should reduce the risk of admission to long-term residential care directly from an acute hospital ward, a phenomenon considered to be indicative of poor quality care. However, this potential effect has not previously been tested. METHODS: Using English data from 2006/07 to 2010/11, we ran multilevel logit models to assess the impact of the QOF review on the risk of care home placement following emergency admission to acute hospital. Emergency admissions were defined for (a) people with a primary diagnosis of dementia and (b) people with dementia admitted for treatment of an ambulatory care sensitive condition. We adjusted for a wide range of potential confounding factors. RESULTS: Over the study period, 19% of individuals admitted to hospital with a primary diagnosis of dementia (N = 31,120) were discharged to a care home; of those admitted for an ambulatory care sensitive condition (N = 139,267), the corresponding figure was 14%. Risk factors for subsequent care home placement included older age, female gender, vascular dementia, incontinence, fall, hip fracture, and number of comorbidities. Better performance on the QOF review was associated with a lower risk of care home placement but only when the admission was for an ambulatory care sensitive condition. CONCLUSIONS: The QOF dementia review may help to reduce the risk of long-term care home placement following acute hospital admission.