A systematic scoping review evaluating sugar-sweetened beverage taxation from a systems perspective.

Systems thinking can reveal surprising, counterintuitive or unintended reactions to population health interventions (PHIs), yet this lens has rarely been applied to sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxation. Using a systematic scoping review approach, we identified 329 papers concerning SSB taxation, of which 45 considered influences and impacts of SSB taxation jointly, involving methodological approaches that may prove promising for operationalizing a systems informed approach to PHI evaluation. Influences and impacts concerning SSB taxation may be cyclically linked, and studies that consider both enable us to identify implications beyond a predicted linear effect. Only three studies explicitly used systems thinking informed methods. Finally, we developed an illustrative, feedback-oriented conceptual framework, emphasizing the processes that could result in an SSB tax being increased, maintained, eroded or repealed over time. Such a framework could be used to synthesize evidence from non-systems informed evaluations, leading to novel research questions and further policy development.

Estimated impact of the UK soft drinks industry levy on childhood hospital admissions for carious tooth extractions: interrupted time series analysis.

Introduction: Tooth extraction due to dental caries is associated with socioeconomic deprivation and is a major reason for elective childhood hospital admissions in England. Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages is a risk factor for dental caries. We examined whether the soft drinks industry levy (SDIL), announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018, was associated with changes in incidence rates of hospital admissions for carious tooth extraction in children, 22 months post-SDIL implementation. Methods: Changes in incidence rates of monthly National Health Service hospital admissions for extraction of teeth due to a primary diagnosis of dental caries (International Classification of Diseases; ICD-10 code: K02) in England, between January 2012 and February 2020, were estimated using interrupted time series and compared with a counterfactual scenario where SDIL was not announced or implemented. Periodical changes in admissions, autocorrelation and population structure were accounted for. Estimates were calculated overall, by Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) fifths and by age group (0-4 years, 5-9 years, 10-14 years, 15-18 years). Results: Compared with the counterfactual scenario, there was a relative reduction of 12.1% (95% CI 17.0% to 7.2%) in hospital admissions for carious tooth extractions in all children (0-18 years). Children aged 0-4 years and 5-9 years had relative reductions of 28.6% (95% CI 35.6% to 21.5%) and 5.5% (95% CI 10.5% to 0.5%), respectively; no change was observed for older children. Reductions were observed in children living in most IMD areas regardless of deprivation. Conclusion: The UK SDIL was associated with reductions in incidence rates of childhood hospital admissions for carious tooth extractions, across most areas regardless of deprivation status and especially in younger children. Trial registration number: ISRCTN18042742.

Trust and transparency in times of crisis: Results from an online survey during the first wave (April 2020) of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK.

BACKGROUND: The success of a government's COVID-19 control strategy relies on public trust and broad acceptance of response measures. We investigated public perceptions of the UK government's COVID-19 response, focusing on the relationship between trust and perceived transparency, during the first wave (April 2020) of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom. METHODS: Anonymous survey data were collected (2020-04-06 to 2020-04-22) from 9,322 respondents, aged 20+ using an online questionnaire shared primarily through Facebook. We took an embedded-mixed-methods approach to data analysis. Missing data were imputed via multiple imputation. Binomial & multinomial logistic regression were used to detect associations between demographic characteristics and perceptions or opinions of the UK government's response to COVID-19. Structural topic modelling (STM), qualitative thematic coding of sub-sets of responses were then used to perform a thematic analysis of topics that were of interest to key demographic groups. RESULTS: Most respondents (95.1%) supported government enforcement of behaviour change. While 52.1% of respondents thought the government was making good decisions, differences were apparent across demographic groups, for example respondents from Scotland had lower odds of responding positively than respondents in London. Higher educational levels saw decreasing odds of having a positive opinion of the government response and decreasing household income associated with decreasing positive opinion. Of respondents who thought the government was not making good decisions 60% believed the economy was being prioritised over people and their health. Positive views on government decision-making were associated with positive views on government transparency about the COVID-19 response. Qualitative analysis about perceptions of government transparency highlighted five key themes: (1) the justification of opacity due to the condition of crisis, (2) generalised mistrust of politics, (3) concerns about the role of scientific evidence, (4) quality of government communication and (5) questions about political decision-making processes. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that trust is not homogenous across communities, and that generalised mistrust, concerns about the transparent use and communication of evidence and insights into decision-making processes can affect perceptions of the government's pandemic response. We recommend targeted community engagement, tailored to the experiences of different groups and a new focus on accountability and openness around how decisions are made in the response to the UK COVID-19 pandemic.

Behavioral Change Towards Reduced Intensity Physical Activity Is Disproportionately Prevalent Among Adults With Serious Health Issues or Self-Perception of High Risk During the UK COVID-19 Lockdown.

Objectives: We assessed whether lockdown had a disproportionate impact on physical activity behavior in groups who were, or who perceived themselves to be, at heightened risk from COVID-19. Methods: Physical activity intensity (none, mild, moderate, or vigorous) before and during the UK COVID-19 lockdown was self-reported by 9,190 adults between 2020-04-06 and 2020-04-22. Physician-diagnosed health conditions and topic composition of open-ended text on participants' coping strategies were tested for associations with changes in physical activity. Results: Most (63.9%) participants maintained their normal physical activity intensity during lockdown, 25.0% changed toward less intensive activity and 11.1% were doing more. Doing less intensive physical activity was associated with obesity (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.08-1.42), hypertension (OR 1.25, 1.10-1.40), lung disease (OR 1.23, 1.08-1.38), depression (OR 2.05, 1.89-2.21), and disability (OR 2.13, 1.87-2.39). Being female (OR 1.25, 1.12-1.38), living alone (OR 1.20, 1.05-1.34), or without access to a garden (OR 1.74, 1.56-1.91) were also associated with doing less intensive physical activity, but being in the highest income group (OR 1.73, 1.37-2.09) or having school-age children (OR 1.29, 1.10-1.49) were associated with doing more. Younger adults were more likely to change their PA behavior compared to older adults. Structural topic modeling of narratives on coping strategies revealed associations between changes in physical activity and perceptions of personal or familial risks at work or at home. Conclusions: Policies on maintaining or improving physical activity intensity during lockdowns should consider (1) vulnerable groups of adults including those with chronic diseases or self-perceptions of being at risk and (2) the importance of access to green or open spaces in which to exercise.

Cultural Engagement Is a Risk-Reducing Factor for Frailty Incidence and Progression.

OBJECTIVES: Given that frailty is a multifaceted health condition of increasing importance to policy-makers and care providers, it is relevant to consider whether multimodal interventions could provide combined psychophysiological support. As studies have demonstrated the beneficial effects of cultural engagement (including visiting museums/theatre/cinema) for many of the components of frailty, this study sought to explore whether community cultural engagement is associated both with a reduced risk of becoming frail and a slower trajectory of frailty progression in older adults. METHODS: We used data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing to measure frequency of cultural engagement and both incident frailty and frailty progression over the following 10 years in 4,575 adults. RESULTS: Our analyses used competing risks regression models and multilevel growth curve models adjusting for socioeconomic, health behaviors, social confounders, and subthreshold symptoms of frailty. There was a dose-response relationship between increasing frequency of cultural engagement and both incidence and progression of frailty (attendance every few months or more: incidence subhazard ratio = 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.63 to 0.996; trajectory coefficient = -0.0039, 95% CI = -0.0059 to -0.0019). DISCUSSION: Older adults who engaged in cultural activities every few months or more had a reduced risk of becoming frail and a slower progression of frailty over time. Findings are in line with current calls for multimodal, multifactor, community approaches to support health in older age.

Birthweight, lifetime obesity and physical functioning in mid-adulthood: a nationwide birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is scant on long-term implications of childhood obesity and body mass index (BMI) gains over the life-course for poor physical functioning (PF). The objective was to establish whether (i) birthweight and BMI across the life-course, (ii) BMI gains at specific life-stages and (iii) age of obesity onset were associated with PF at 50 y. METHODS: In the 1958 British birth cohort (n = 8674), BMI (kg/m2) was calculated using height and weight [measured (7, 11, 16, 33 and 45 y); self-reported (23 and 50 y)]. PF was assessed at 50 y using the validated PF subscale of the Short-form 36 survey; the bottom (gender-specific) 10% was classified as poor PF. Missing data were imputed via multiple imputation. Associations were examined using logistic regression, adjusting for health and social factors. RESULTS: Birthweight was not associated with PF. At each adult age, odds of poor PF were highest for obese (vs normal), e.g. for 23 y obesity the odds ratio (OR)adjusted for poor PF was 2.28 (1.34, 3.91) and 2.67 (1.72, 4.14) in males and females respectively. BMI gains were associated with poor PF, e.g. for females, ORadjusted per standard deviation (SD) in BMI gain 16-23 y was 1.28 (1.13, 1.46); for BMI gains 45-50 y it was 1.36 (1.11, 1.65). Longer duration of obesity was associated with poor PF, e.g. in males, ORadjusted was 2.32 (1.26, 4.29) for childhood obesity onset and 1.50 (1.16, 1.96) for mid-adulthood onset (vs never obese, P-trend < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Obesity, BMI gains, and earlier obesity onset were associated with poor PF in mid-adulthood, reinforcing the importance of preventing and delaying obesity onset.

Determinants of frailty development and progression using a multidimensional frailty index: Evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

OBJECTIVE: To identify modifiable risk factors for development and progression of frailty in older adults living in England, as conceptualised by a multidimensional frailty index (FI). METHODS: Data from participants aged 50 and over from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) was used to examine potential determinants of frailty, using a 56-item FI comprised of self-reported health conditions, disabilities, cognitive function, hearing, eyesight, depressive symptoms and ability to carry out activities of daily living. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to measure frailty development (n = 7420) and linear regression models to measure frailty progression over 12 years follow-up (n = 8780). RESULTS: Increasing age (HR: 1.08 (CI: 1.08-1.09)), being in the lowest wealth quintile (HR: 1.79 (CI: 1.54-2.08)), lack of educational qualifications (HR: 1.19 (CI: 1.09-1.30)), obesity (HR: 1.33 (CI: 1.18-1.50) and a high waist-hip ratio (HR: 1.25 (CI: 1.13-1.38)), being a current or previous smoker (HR: 1.29 (CI: 1.18-1.41)), pain (HR: 1.39 (CI: 1.34-1.45)), sedentary behaviour (HR: 2.17 (CI: 1.76-2.78) and lower body strength (HR: 1.07 (CI: 1.06-1.08)), were all significant risk factors for frailty progression and incidence after simultaneous adjustment for all examined factors. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study suggest that there may be scope to reduce both frailty incidence and progression by trialling interventions aimed at reducing obesity and sedentary behaviour, increasing intensity of physical activity, and improving success of smoking cessation tools. Furthermore, improving educational outcomes and reducing poverty may also reduce inequalities in frailty.

Volunteering is associated with increased survival in able-bodied participants of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

BACKGROUND: Volunteering has been linked to reduced mortality in older adults, but the mechanisms explaining this effect remain unclear. This study investigated whether volunteering is associated with increased survival in participants of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing and whether differences in survival are modified by functional disabilities. METHODS: A multivariate Cox Proportional Hazards model was used to estimate the association of volunteering with survival over a period of 10.9 years in 10 324 participants, while controlling for selected confounders. To investigate effect modification by disability, the analyses were repeated in participants with and without self-reported functional disabilities. RESULTS: Volunteering was associated with a reduced probability of death from all causes in univariate analyses (HR=0.65, CI 0.58 to 0.73, p<0.0001), but adjustment for covariates rendered this association non-significant (HR=0.90, CI 0.79 to 1.01, p=0.07). Able-bodied volunteers had significantly increased survival compared with able-bodied non-volunteers (HR=0.81, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.95, p=0.009). There was no significant survival advantage among disabled volunteers, compared with disabled non-volunteers (HR=1.06, CI 0.88 to 1.29, p=0.53). CONCLUSIONS: Volunteering is associated with reduced mortality in older adults in England, but this effect appears to be limited to volunteers who report no disabilities.