ABSTRACT
BackgroundRepeated vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 increases serological response in kidney transplant recipients (KTR) with high interindividual variability. No decision support tool exists to predict SARS-CoV-2 vaccination response in KTR. MethodsWe developed, internally and externally validated five different multivariable prediction models of serological response after the third and fourth vaccine dose against SARS-CoV-2 in KTR. Using 27 candidate predictor variables, we applied statistical and machine learning approaches including logistic regression (LR), LASSO-regularized LR, random forest, and gradient boosted regression trees. For development and internal validation, data from 585 vaccinations were used. External validation was performed in four independent, international validation datasets comprising 191, 184, 254, and 323 vaccinations, respectively. FindingsLASSO-regularized LR performed on the whole development dataset yielded a 23- and 11- variable model, respectively. External validation showed AUC-ROC of 0.855, 0.749, 0.828, and 0.787 for the sparser 11-variable model, yielding an overall performance 0.819. InterpretationAn 11-variable LASSO-regularized LR model predicts vaccination response in KTR with good overall accuracy. Implemented as an online tool, it can guide decisions when choosing between different immunization strategies to improve protection against COVID-19 in KTR.
ABSTRACT
ImportanceResponse to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in kidney transplant recipients (KTR) is severely reduced. Heterologous 3rd vaccination combining mRNA and vector vaccines did not increase seroconversion at four weeks after vaccination but evolution of antibody levels beyond the first month remain unknown. ObjectiveTo assess changes in antibody response following a 3rd vaccination with mRNA or vector vaccine in KTR from month one to month three after vaccination. Design, Setting and ParticipantsThree-month follow-up (pre-specified secondary endpoint) of a single-center, single-blinded, 1:1 randomized, controlled trial on 3rd vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 in 201 KTR who did not develop SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antibodies following two doses of an mRNA vaccine. Intervention(s)mRNA (BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273) or vector (Ad26COVS1) as 3rd SARS-CoV-2 vaccine Main Outcomes and MeasuresMain outcome was seroconversion at the second follow-up between 60-120 days after the 3rd vaccination. Subsequently, higher cut-off levels associated with neutralizing capacity and protective immunity were applied (i.e. >15, >100, >141 and >264 BAU/mL). In addition, trajectories of antibody levels from month one to month three were analyzed. Finally, SARS-CoV-2 specific CD4 and CD8 T-cells at four weeks were compared among the 18 top responders in both groups. ResultsA total of 169 patients were available for the three-month follow-up. Overall, seroconversion at three months was similar between both groups (45% versus 50% for mRNA and vector group, respectively; OR=1.24, 95%CI=[0.65, 2.37], p=0.539). However, when applying higher cut-off levels, a significantly larger number of individual in the vector group reached antibody levels > 141 and > 264 BAU/mL at the three-month follow-up (141 BAU/mL: 4% vs. 15% OR=4.96, 95%CI=[1.29, 28.21], p=0.009 and 264 BAU/mL: 1% vs. 10% OR=8.75, 95%CI=[1.13, 396.17], p=0.018 for mRNA vs. vector vaccine group, respectively). In line, antibody levels in seroconverted patients further increased from month one to month three in the vector group while remaining unchanged in the mRNA group (median increase: mRNA= 1.35 U/mL and vector = 27.6 U/mL, p = 0.004). Of particular note, there was no difference in the CD4 and CD8 T-cell response between the mRNA and vector vaccine group at month one. Conclusions and RelevanceDespite a similar overall seroconversion rate at three months following 3rd vaccination in KTR, a heterologous 3rd booster vaccination with Ad26COVS1 resulted in significantly higher antibody levels in responders. Trial RegistrationEurdraCT: 2021-002927-39
