Quantifying alcohol-attributable disability-adjusted life years to others than the drinker in Aotearoa/New Zealand: A modelling study based on administrative data.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Quantifying the health burden of alcohol has largely focused upon harm to drinkers, which is an underestimate. There is a growing literature on alcohol's harm to others (HTO), but it lacks the systematic transfer of HTO into a comparative risk assessment framework. This study calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD), interpersonal violence and traffic injury due to another's drinking. DESIGN: This study is a disease burden analysis, using modelling of DALYs for New Zealand in 2018. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The study took place among the Aotearoa/New Zealand population in 2018. MEASUREMENTS: The involvement of others' drinking was obtained from prevalence, alcohol-attributable fraction studies and administrative data. Disability weights (DW) for FASD were adapted from fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS) weights using a Beta-Pert probability distribution; for interpersonal injury, DWs used hospital events linked with injury compensation; for traffic injury, DWs used hospital events. Populations were stratified by ethnicity, age group and gender. A descriptive comparison was made with a previous estimate of DALYs for drinkers. FINDINGS: In 2018, 78 277 healthy life years were lost in Aotearoa/New Zealand due to alcohol's HTO. The main contributor (90.3%) was FASD, then traffic crashes (6.3%) and interpersonal violence (3.4%). The indigenous population, Maori, was impacted at a higher rate (DALYs among Maori were 25 per 1000 population; among non-Maori 15 per 1000 population). The burden of HTO was greater than that to drinkers (DALYs HTO = 78 277; DALYs drinkers = 60 174). CONCLUSIONS: Disability from fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD) appears to be a major contributor to alcohol's harm to others in Aotearoa/New Zealand. Taking FASD into account, the health burden of harm to others is larger than harm to the drinker in Aotearoa/New Zealand, and ethnicity differences show inequity in harm to others. Quantification of the burden of harm informs the value of implementing effective alcohol policies and should include the full range of harms.

Exploring Differences in Daily Vaping of Nicotine and Cannabis among People Who Use Drugs in New Zealand.

Background: Little is known about daily vaping of different substances, particularly cannabis. Aim: To explore daily vaping of cannabis and nicotine products in a sample of people who use drugs in New Zealand. Method: The online New Zealand Drug Trends convenience survey (N = 23,500) was promoted to those aged 16+ via a targeted Facebook™ campaign, with 9,042 reporting vaping in the past six months. Multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to identify predictors of daily vaping of: (i) nicotine e-liquids, (ii) no-nicotine e-liquids, (iii) cannabis e-liquids/oils, (iv)cannabis herb. Results: Forty-two percent of past 6-month vapers used a vaporizing device "daily or near daily" (n = 3,508). Nicotine was most common substance used by daily vapers (96%), followed by dry herb cannabis (12%), no-nicotine e-liquids (10%) and cannabis e-liquid (6%). Daily vaping of no-nicotine e-liquids was associated with abstinence from tobacco use. Frequency of cannabis use was negatively correlated with daily vaping of nicotine liquids and positively correlated with daily vaping of no-nicotine and herbal cannabis. Younger age strongly predicted daily vaping of nicotine and no-nicotine liquids, but the reverse association was observed for daily vaping of herbal cannabis. Maori were less likely to daily vape cannabis herb than NZ Europeans. Daily vaping of both cannabis e-liquid and cannabis herb was associated with medicinal cannabis use. Conclusion: Daily vapers of nicotine and cannabis differed by several characteristics. Younger age group is at risk of daily vaping nicotine and non-nicotine, while herbal cannabis vaping is associated with older and medicinal use, suggesting a need for a nuanced vape policy response.

Foetal alcohol spectrum disorder in Aotearoa, New Zealand: Estimates of prevalence and indications of inequity.

INTRODUCTION: Foetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD) is 100% caused by alcohol. The lifelong disability caused by prenatal alcohol exposure cannot be reversed. Lack of reliable national prevalence estimates of FASD is common internationally and true of Aotearoa, New Zealand. This study modelled the national prevalence of FASD and differences by ethnicity. METHODS: FASD prevalence was estimated from self-reported data on any alcohol use during pregnancy for 2012/2013 and 2018/2019, combined with risk estimates for FASD from a meta-analysis of case-ascertainment or clinic-based studies in seven other countries. A sensitivity analysis using four more recent active case ascertainment studies was performed to account for the possibility of underestimation. RESULTS: We estimated FASD prevalence in the general population to be 1.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0%; 2.7%) in the 2012/2013 year. For Maori, the prevalence was significantly higher than for Pasifika and Asian populations. In the 2018/2019 year, FASD prevalence was 1.3% (95% CI 0.9%; 1.9%). For Maori, the prevalence was significantly higher than for Pasifika and Asian populations. The sensitivity analysis estimated the prevalence of FASD in the 2018/2019 year to range between 1.1% and 3.9% and for Maori, from 1.7% to 6.3%. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: This study used methodology from comparative risk assessments, using the best available national data. These findings are probably underestimates but indicate a disproportionate experience of FASD by Maori compared with some ethnicities. The findings support the need for policy and prevention initiatives to support alcohol-free pregnancies to reduce lifelong disability caused by prenatal alcohol exposure.

Fingerprints as Predictors of Schizophrenia: A Deep Learning Study.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: The existing developmental bond between fingerprint generation and growth of the central nervous system points to a potential use of fingerprints as risk markers in schizophrenia. However, the high complexity of fingerprints geometrical patterns may require flexible algorithms capable of characterizing such complexity. STUDY DESIGN: Based on an initial sample of scanned fingerprints from 612 patients with a diagnosis of non-affective psychosis and 844 healthy subjects, we have built deep learning classification algorithms based on convolutional neural networks. Previously, the general architecture of the network was chosen from exploratory fittings carried out with an independent fingerprint dataset from the National Institute of Standards and Technology. The network architecture was then applied for building classification algorithms (patients vs controls) based on single fingers and multi-input models. Unbiased estimates of classification accuracy were obtained by applying a 5-fold cross-validation scheme. STUDY RESULTS: The highest level of accuracy from networks based on single fingers was achieved by the right thumb network (weighted validation accuracy = 68%), while the highest accuracy from the multi-input models was attained by the model that simultaneously used images from the left thumb, index and middle fingers (weighted validation accuracy = 70%). CONCLUSION: Although fitted models were based on data from patients with a well established diagnosis, since fingerprints remain lifelong stable after birth, our results imply that fingerprints may be applied as early predictors of psychosis. Specially, if they are used in high prevalence subpopulations such as those of individuals at high risk for psychosis.

Estimating child maltreatment cases that could be alcohol-attributable in New Zealand.

AIMS: Children are an important group harmed by others' alcohol consumption. This study (1) compared the risk of occurrence of child maltreatment among children exposed versus not exposed to parents with an alcohol-attributable hospitalization or service use for mental health/addiction and (2) conducted sensitivity analyses to estimate the cases of child maltreatment that could be attributable to alcohol under two different conditions in New Zealand. DESIGN: A cohort study conducted among children 0-17 years and their parents (years 2000-2017) using the Statistics New Zealand Integrated Data Infrastructure. The New Zealand Health Survey 2017 was also used. SETTING: New Zealand. PARTICIPANTS: 58 359 children aged 0-17 years and their parents. MEASUREMENTS: Survival analysis based on a Bayesian piecewise exponential model was used to estimate the risk of time to first substantiated child maltreatment event (identified from social service, hospital, mortality and police data) related to exposure to parents with an alcohol-attributable hospitalization or who used a mental health/addiction service (versus no exposure). Potential confounders were included for parents and children. The sensitivity analyses (i) estimated an alcohol-attributable admissions/service use fraction for maltreatment in 2017 and (ii) calculated a population-attributable fraction using the relative risk from the cohort and prevalence of hazardous drinking (AUDIT 8+) among parents in 2017. FINDINGS: There was a 65.1% [1.65; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.46-1.86] increased risk of child maltreatment if a child was exposed to parents who had an alcohol-attributable hospitalized or mental health/addictions service use. The sensitivity analyses estimated that in 2017 14.6% (CI = 14.0-15.3%) and 11.4% (95% CI = 8.4-14.3%) of the documented cases of child maltreatment in New Zealand could be attributable to parents with severe or hazardous consumption. CONCLUSIONS: In New Zealand, exposure to parents with an alcohol-attributable hospitalization or service use is a risk factor for substantiated child maltreatment.

Effective alcohol policies and lifetime abstinence: An analysis of the International Alcohol Control policy index.

INTRODUCTION: Alcohol abstinence remains common among adults globally, although low and middle-income countries are experiencing declines in abstention. The effect of alcohol policies on lifetime abstinence is poorly understood. The International Alcohol Control (IAC) policy index was developed to benchmark and monitor the uptake of effective alcohol policies and has shown strong associations with alcohol per capita consumption and drinking patterns. Uniquely, the index incorporates both policy 'stringency' and 'impact', reflecting policy implementation and enforcement, across effective policies. Here we assessed the association of the IAC policy index with lifetime abstinence in a diverse sample of jurisdictions. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the relationship between the IAC policy index score, and its components, and lifetime abstinence among adults (15+ years) in 13 high and middle-income jurisdictions. We examined the correlations for each component of the index and stringency and impact separately. RESULTS: Overall, the total IAC policy index scores were positively correlated with lifetime abstinence (r = 0.76), as were both the stringency (r = 0.62) and impact (r = 0.82) scores. Marketing restrictions showed higher correlations with lifetime abstinence than other policy domains (r = 0.80), including restrictions on physical availability, pricing policies and drink-driving prevention. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that restricting alcohol marketing could be an important policy for the protection of alcohol abstention. The IAC policy index may be a useful tool to benchmark the performance of alcohol policy in supporting alcohol abstention in high and middle-income countries.

Benchmarking alcohol policy based on stringency and impact: The International Alcohol Control (IAC) policy index.

This study developed a measurement tool to assess stringency and 'on-the-ground' impact of four key alcohol policy domains to create an alcohol policy index suitable for benchmarking alcohol policy and assessing change over time in middle- and high-income countries. It involved a collaboration between researchers in 12 diverse countries: New Zealand; Australia; England; Scotland; Netherlands; Vietnam; Thailand; South Africa; Turkey; Chile; Saint Kitts and Nevis and Mongolia. Data on the four most effective alcohol policy domains (availability, pricing policy, alcohol marketing, drink driving) were used to create an alcohol policy index based on their association with alcohol per capita consumption (APC) of commercial (recorded) alcohol. An innovation was the inclusion of measures of impact along with the stringency of the legislation or regulation. The resulting International Alcohol Control (IAC) Policy Index showed a very high negative correlation (-0.91) with recorded APC. Greater affordability of alcohol, an impact measure taking into account prices paid and countries' Gross Domestic Product, was predictive of higher APC (-0.80). Countries in which more modes of alcohol marketing are legally allowed and used had higher APC. Legislation on outlet density and drink driving predicted APC whereas trading hours did not. While stringency and impact measures varied between domains in terms of relationship with APC, overall, there was a strong correlation between impact and stringency (0.77). The IAC Policy Index, which includes measures of policy stringency and 'on-the-ground' impacts in relation to four key policy areas, was found to be strongly associated with commercial alcohol consumed in a number of diverse country settings. It showed a larger relationship than previous indices that include more policy dimensions. The index provides a relatively simple tool for benchmarking and communication with policy makers to encourage a strong focus on uptake of these four most effective alcohol policies.

Predictors of using social media to purchase drugs in New Zealand: Findings from a large-scale online survey.

BACKGROUND: There are increasing reports of social media being used to buy and sell illegal drugs internationally. Studies of social media drug markets to date have largely involved general explorations of social media drug transactions in select countries. Social media drug markets may operate differently for different drug types and in different country contexts. AIMS: To identify predictors of the use of social media to purchase cannabis, methamphetamine, LSD and ecstasy/MDMA in New Zealand using a large-scale online survey sample. METHODS: The annual New Zealand Drug Trends Survey (NZDTS), an online convenience survey promoted via targeted Facebook™ campaign, was completed by 23,500 respondents aged 16+. Logistic regression models were fitted to identify demographic, drug use and drug market predictors of reporting the use of social media to purchase cannabis, methamphetamine, LSD and ecstasy/MDMA. RESULTS: Fifty-one percent of the sample had purchased cannabis, methamphetamine, ecstasy/MDMA or LSD in the past six months, of which 22% had done so via social media (n = 2,650). Cannabis was the drug type most purchased from social media among drug purchasers (24%), followed by ecstasy/MDMA (13%). Sixty percent of social media purchasers had used Facebook™, 48% Snapchat™, and 20% Instagram™. The leading advantages of social media purchasing were "high convenience" (74%), and "fast transaction speed" (43%). Younger age was a significant predictor of social media purchasing for all drug types (particularly among 16-17 year olds). Purchasing from someone identified as a "drug dealer" was a predictor of social media purchasing among respondents for all drug types. CONCLUSION: Social media drug markets may have significant implications for drug purchasing by youth through providing greater access to supply and breaking down age-related barriers between social supply and commercial drug markets. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating social media platforms into youth drug prevention and harm minimisation strategies.

Changes in the incidence of assault after restrictions on late-night alcohol sales in New Zealand: evaluation of a natural experiment using hospitalization and police data.

AIMS: To estimate the effect of national restrictions on late-night availability of alcohol on alcohol-related assault at a population level as indicated by (1) change in hospitalizations for weekend assaults and (2) change in the proportion of assaults documented by police that occur at night. DESIGN: Evaluation of a natural experiment, involving: (1) pre-post comparisons of age-specific incidence rates, adjusted for seasonality and background trend using Poisson regression; and (2) interrupted time-series analyses, using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models of national data with no control site. SETTING: New Zealand. PARTICIPANTS: (1) Inpatients discharged from NZ hospitals following assault during the weekend (Friday-Sunday) from 2004 to 2016 (n = 14 996) and (2) cases of assault recorded by NZ Police from 2012 to 2018. INTERVENTION: introduction of national maximum trading hours for all on-licence (8 a.m.-4 a.m.) and off-licence premises (7 a.m.-11 p.m.), abolishing existing 24-hour licences, on 18 December 2013. MEASUREMENTS: (1) Age-specific incidence of hospitalization for assault on Friday, Saturday or Sunday from the national hospital discharge data set, excluding short-stay emergency department admissions and (2) proportion of weekly police-documented assaults occurring between 9 p.m. and 5.59 a.m., from NZ Police Demand and Activity data set. FINDINGS: Following the restrictions, weekend hospitalized assaults declined by 11% [incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.89; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.84, 0.94], with the greatest reduction among 15-29-year-olds (IRR = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.76, 0.89). There was an absolute reduction (step change) of 1.8% (95% CI = 0.2, 3.5%) in the proportion of police-documented assaults occurring at night, equivalent to 9.70 (95% CI = 0.10, 19.30) fewer night-time assaults per week, out of 207.4. CONCLUSIONS: The 2013 implementation of national maximum trading hours for alcohol in NZ was followed by reductions in two complementary indicators of alcohol-related assault, consistent with beneficial effects of modest nation-wide restrictions on the late-night availability of alcohol.

Online alcohol delivery is associated with heavier drinking during the first New Zealand COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.

INTRODUCTION: This paper aimed to assess purchasing and drinking behaviour during the first COVID-19 pandemic restrictions in New Zealand. METHOD: A convenience sample was collected via Facebook from 2173 New Zealanders 18+ years during pandemic restrictions April/May 2020. Measures included: the quantity typically consumed during a drinking occasion and heavier drinking (6+ drinks on a typical occasion) in the past week; place of purchase including online alcohol delivery. Descriptive statistics were generated, logistic and linear regression models predicted heavier drinking and typical occasion quantity, respectively. Weighting was not applied. RESULTS: During pandemic restrictions, around 75% of respondents purchased from supermarkets, 40% used online alcohol delivery services (18% for the first time during COVID-19). Purchasing online alcohol delivery during pandemic restrictions was associated with heavier drinking (75% higher odds) in the past week, while purchasing from supermarkets was not. About 58% of online purchasers under 25 reported no age checks. Sixteen percent of those purchasing online repeat ordered online to keep drinking after running out. Of respondents who had tried to buy alcohol and food online, 56% reported that alcohol was easier to get delivered than fresh food. Advertising for online alcohol delivery was seen by around 75% of the sample. Half of the sample reported drinking more alcohol during the restrictions. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Online alcohol delivery during the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions was associated with heavier drinking in the past week. The rapid expansion of online alcohol delivery coupled with a lack of regulatory control requires public health policy attention.

Determinants of the retail price of illegal drugs in New Zealand.

INTRODUCTION: New Zealand has a number of unusual geographical features that may influence the price of illegal drugs including international isolation, numerous rural communities, and two separate islands (North and South Islands). AIMS: (1) Collect data on the prices of different drug types from all regions of New Zealand; (2) Identify independent predictors of the reported prices. METHOD: An online drug survey was promoted via a targeted Facebook™ campaign. A total of 6331 respondents completed the survey. Normal regression models were constructed to identify predictors of the reported price of an ounce of cannabis, gram of methamphetamine, pill of ecstasy and tab of LSD using demographics, drug use frequency, drug market indicators, region, community size, type of seller, and location of purchase as predictor variables. RESULTS: Higher availability was a predicator of lower prices for cannabis (-3% per higher availability category), methamphetamine (-4%) and ecstasy (-5%). Those living in the North Island (-26%) and buying from gangs (-5%) paid lower prices for methamphetamine. Those living in rural communities reported higher prices for methamphetamine (+5%) but lower prices for cannabis (-3%). Daily cannabis users (+4%) and those on social welfare (+2%) paid higher prices for cannabis. CONCLUSION: Lower prices for methamphetamine in the North Island may reflect the concentration of methamphetamine manufacture there. The fact that gangs offer lower prices for methamphetamine suggests they do not have monopoly control of this market. Gangs may be able to offer lower prices for methamphetamine due to scale of production/trafficking and lower risk of victimisation. Higher prices for methamphetamine in rural areas may reflect less competitive markets. Lower prices for cannabis in rural communities may be due to proximity to growing locations. Daily cannabis users and those on social welfare may be less able to delay their cannabis purchases to low price harvest months.

A restrictive alcohol social supply law change is associated with less supply to friends under 18 years.

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: This study aimed to assess the early impacts of a 2013 law change to restrict the social supply of alcohol to under 18s in New Zealand by assessing changes in social suppliers' behaviour. DESIGN AND METHODS: National surveys of drinkers aged 16-65 years were collected before (2013) and after (2015) the law change. Suppliers were asked: to whom they supplied alcohol, how often and how much; if the supplier thought the alcohol they provided would be shared; whether the supplier had permission to supply from parent/guardian, and if they supervised their supply. General estimating equation models were used to conduct analyses. RESULTS: Sons and daughters were commonly supplied to, as were friends, but friends were supplied greater quantities on average [13 drinks compared to four drinks for sons/daughters (at baseline)]. Following the law change, friends were less commonly supplied to (8% decrease), were supplied with fewer drinks (down from 13 to 11 drinks) and there was greater supervision of social supply to friends (16% increase) (and to other relatives). However, the number of drinks supplied by parents increased from four to six drinks. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: There was evidence of some early reductions in social supply in relation to the law change, in particular where the legislation aimed to have effect; specifically, less supply to friends under 18 years. We found no effect of the new law on parental supply. As quantities supplied are still very high, further policy restriction and public health interventions would be appropriate.

Determinants of high availability of methamphetamine, cannabis, LSD and ecstasy in New Zealand: Are drug dealers promoting methamphetamine rather than cannabis?

BACKGROUND: Small towns in New Zealand have reported high availability of methamphetamine, and conversely a shortage of cannabis. Stakeholders have suggested drug dealers are purposely promoting methamphetamine rather than cannabis. AIMS: (1) To compare the availability of methamphetamine and cannabis in different size communities; (2) Identify determinants of the high availability of methamphetamine, including low availability of cannabis. METHOD: An online drug survey was promoted via a broadly targeted Facebook™ campaign. Participants were asked if they lived in a "city", "small town" or "rural area", their drug use patterns, and local drug market characteristics, including current availability. A total of 6311 people completed the survey. Logistic regression models were constructed to identify independent predictors of reporting high availability of methamphetamine, cannabis, ecstasy and LSD respectively, with low availability of cannabis included as a predictor in the non-cannabis markets. RESULTS: Methamphetamine was reported to be more available than cannabis in all regions. Methamphetamine was more available in towns/rural areas than in cities. Significant predictors of high availability of methamphetamine were living in a town/rural area (OR = 1.38), purchasing from a gang member (OR = 1.88), daily methamphetamine use (OR = 2.41), Maori ethnicity (OR = 1.36) and reporting low availability of cannabis (OR = 1.89). Low availability of cannabis was not a predictor of high availability of ecstasy or LSD. Living in a town/rural area was not a predictor of high availability of cannabis, LSD or ecstasy. Purchasing from a gang member was a predictor of high availability of cannabis (OR = 1.80) and LSD (OR = 4.61). CONCLUSIONS: Further research is required to identify what causal relationships, if any, there are between the statistical associations of high methamphetamine availability, living in a small town, purchasing from a gang, and low cannabis availability. It may be the case that small towns offer an environment where a gang can control the local drugs market.

Socio-economic disadvantage is associated with heavier drinking in high but not middle-income countries participating in the International Alcohol Control Study.

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: To investigate if socio-economic disadvantage, at the individual- and country-level, is associated with heavier drinking in some middle- and high-income countries. DESIGN AND METHODS: Surveys of drinkers were undertaken in some high- and middle-income countries. Participating countries were Australia, England, New Zealand, Scotland (high-income) and Peru, Thailand and Vietnam (middle-income). Disadvantage at the country-level was defined as per World Bank (categorised as middle-or high-income); individual-level measures were (i) years of education and (ii) whether and individual was under or over the poverty line in each country. Measures of heavier drinking were (i) proportion of drinkers that consumed 8+ drinks and (ii) three drinking risk groups (lower, increasing and higher). Multi-level logistic regression models were used. RESULTS: Individual-level measures of disadvantage, lower education and living in poverty, were associated with heavier drinking, consuming 8+ drinks on a typical occasion or drinking at the higher risk level, when all countries were considered together. Drinkers in the middle-income countries had a higher probability of consuming 8+ drinks on a typical occasion relative to drinkers in the high-income countries. Interactions between country-level income and individual-level disadvantage were undertaken: disadvantaged drinkers in the middle-income countries were less likely to be heavier drinkers relative to those with less disadvantage in the high-income countries. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Associations between socio-economic disadvantage and heavier drinking vary depending on country-level income. These findings highlight the value of exploring cross-country differences in heavier drinking and disadvantage and the importance of including country-level measurements to better elucidate relationships.

Bayesian bivariate survival analysis using the power variance function copula.

Copula models have become increasingly popular for modelling the dependence structure in multivariate survival data. The two-parameter Archimedean family of Power Variance Function (PVF) copulas includes the Clayton, Positive Stable (Gumbel) and Inverse Gaussian copulas as special or limiting cases, thus offers a unified approach to fitting these important copulas. Two-stage frequentist procedures for estimating the marginal distributions and the PVF copula have been suggested by Andersen (Lifetime Data Anal 11:333-350, 2005), Massonnet et al. (J Stat Plann Inference 139(11):3865-3877, 2009) and Prenen et al. (J R Stat Soc Ser B 79(2):483-505, 2017) which first estimate the marginal distributions and conditional on these in a second step to estimate the PVF copula parameters. Here we explore an one-stage Bayesian approach that simultaneously estimates the marginal and the PVF copula parameters. For the marginal distributions, we consider both parametric as well as semiparametric models. We propose a new method to simulate uniform pairs with PVF dependence structure based on conditional sampling for copulas and on numerical approximation to solve a target equation. In a simulation study, small sample properties of the Bayesian estimators are explored. We illustrate the usefulness of the methodology using data on times to appendectomy for adult twins in the Australian NH&MRC Twin registry. Parameters of the marginal distributions and the PVF copula are simultaneously estimated in a parametric as well as a semiparametric approach where the marginal distributions are modelled using Weibull and piecewise exponential distributions, respectively.

Aparato Digestivo: evolución de la elección de la especialidad en los últimos años / Gastroenterology - Evolution of specialty choice in recent years

Introducción: Aparato Digestivo es una de las especialidades ofertadas a los opositores que acceden a la formación sanitaria especializada cada año. Este proyecto analiza los datos de elección de Aparato Digestivo en los últimos años. Material y métodos: los datos de la elección se han obtenido de la publicación oficial de los actos de asignación de plazas del Ministerio de Sanidad, Servicios Sociales e Igualdad. Se ha recabado información de los distintos centros docentes a través de sus guías formativas, el Catálogo Nacional de Hospitales y la Organización Nacional de Trasplantes. Resultados: la mediana de elección de número de orden para Aparato Digestivo ha descendido anualmente, situando la especialidad en 2015 entre las cinco más populares en la elección. La mediana de los hospitales con mayor número de camas, actividad de trasplante hepático en adultos y Unidad de Sangrantes es significativamente menor. Lo mismo sucede al analizar los centros en base a la presencia de guardias específicas de Aparato Digestivo para residentes o vinculación con facultades de Medicina. Los datos de los últimos cinco años sitúan a Madrid, Aragón y Euskadi como las comunidades autónomas más populares. Los centros con menor mediana de número de orden para el periodo 2011-2015 fueron los hospitales universitarios Ramón y Cajal, Santiago de Compostela y Gregorio Marañón. Conclusiones: Aparato Digestivo ha ido mejorando de manera progresiva en la elección de plazas de especialización hasta llegar a situarse entre las cinco más populares. Los electores se decantan por centros grandes, de mayor complejidad asistencial y elevada actividad investigadora (AU)

Introduction: Gastroenterology is one of the medical specialties offered to residency training candidates each year. This project analyzes the data associated with the choice of a Gastroenterology residency program in recent years. Material and methods: Data related to specialty selection were obtained from official reports with regard to the allocation of residency places by the Spanish Ministry of Health, Social Services and Equality. Information was collected from various teaching centers via their training guides, the Spanish National Catalogue of Hospitals and the National Transplant Organization. Results: The median consecutive number involved in the choice of Gastroenterology training has decreased year after year, and this specialty is now positioned among the five most commonly selected residency programs in 2015. The median number of hospitals with a higher number of beds, adult liver transplantation activities and dedicated GI bleeding units is significantly lower. This is also true when centers are analyzed according to the presence of specific Gastroenterology on-call shifts for residents or their association with medical schools. Data from the past five years highlight Madrid, Aragón and the Basque Country as the autonomous communities where Gastroenterology is the most popular. Centers selected by candidates with the lowest median consecutive numbers from 2011-2015 included the university hospitals Ramón y Cajal, Santiago de Compostela and Gregorio Marañón. Conclusions: Gastroenterology has gradually escalated in the ranking of residency choices and is now one of the five most popular options. Potential residents prefer larger centers with complex-care patients and more research activity (AU)

Gastroenterology - Evolution of specialty choice in recent years.

INTRODUCTION: Gastroenterology is one of the medical specialties offered to residency training candidates each year. This project analyzes the data associated with the choice of a Gastroenterology residency program in recent years. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data related to specialty selection were obtained from official reports with regard to the allocation of residency places by the Spanish Ministry of Health, Social Services and Equality. Information was collected from various teaching centers via their training guides, the Spanish National Catalogue of Hospitals and the National Transplant Organization. RESULTS: The median consecutive number involved in the choice of Gastroenterology training has decreased year after year, and this specialty is now positioned among the five most commonly selected residency programs in 2015. The median number of hospitals with a higher number of beds, adult liver transplantation activities and dedicated GI bleeding units is significantly lower. This is also true when centers are analyzed according to the presence of specific Gastroenterology on-call shifts for residents or their association with medical schools. Data from the past five years highlight Madrid, Aragón and the Basque Country as the autonomous communities where Gastroenterology is the most popular. Centers selected by candidates with the lowest median consecutive numbers from 2011-2015 included the university hospitals Ramón y Cajal, Santiago de Compostela and Gregorio Marañón. CONCLUSIONS: Gastroenterology has gradually escalated in the ranking of residency choices and is now one of the five most popular options. Potential residents prefer larger centers with complex-care patients and more research activity.

Endocrinología y nutrición: evolución de la elección de la especialidad en los últimos años / Endocrinology and nutrition: Evolution of the choice of specialty in the last years

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