Projection of diabetes morbidity and mortality till 2045 in Indonesia based on risk factors and NCD prevention and control programs.

Diabetes Mellitus is one of the biggest health problems in Indonesia but the research on the disease's projection is still limited. This study aimed to make a projection model of prevalence and mortality of diabetes in Indonesia based on risk factors and NCD programs. The study was a quantitative non-experimental study through multiple linear regression models and system dynamics. The baseline projection was created by 2018 data and projections until 2045 involved the dynamization of risk factors and programs, population, and case fatality rate. The model was created from 205 districts data. This study used secondary data from Basic Health Research, BPJS Kesehatan, NCD programs, and Ministry of Health. The prevalence of diabetes in Indonesia is estimated to increase from 9.19% in 2020 (18.69 million cases) to 16.09% in 2045 (40.7 million cases). The prevalence will be lower to 15.68% (39.6 million) if interventions of programs were carried out, and to 9.22% (23.2 million) if the programs were added with prevention of risk factors. The projected number of deaths due to diabetes increases from 433,752 in 2020 to 944,468 in 2045. Deaths due to stroke among diabetes increases from 52,397 to 114,092 in the same period. Deaths from IHD among diabetes increase from 35,351 to 76,974, and deaths from chronic kidney disease among diabetes increase from 29,061 to 63,279. Diabetes prevalence and mortality in Indonesia rise significantly in Indonesia and can be reduced by intervention of several programs and risk factors. This study findings could be source of planning and evaluation of Diabetes prevention and control program at national and provincial level in the future related to risk factors control and program development.

The risk of rehospitalization within 30 days of discharge in older adults with malnutrition: A meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Malnutrition is a global health problem associated with higher rehospitalization risk, subsequently increasing the risks of adverse complications, and mortality in older individuals. Nevertheless, studies investigating this are still scarce, and even fewer reviewed and aggregated. A number of studies have recently assessed the correlation of malnourishment with rehospitalization among older adults. OBJECTIVE/AIM: This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to elaborate the correlation between malnutrition and 30-day rehospitalization in older adults. METHODS: Systematic review was conducted on literatures from Cochrane, ScienceDirect, SpringerLink, Oxford Academic, and MEDLINE according to PRISMA Guideline, investigating the correlation of malnutrition in older adults with rehospitalization, using Malnutrition, Older Adults, and Rehospitalization as keywords. Meta-analysis was done using RevMan, with random-effect analysis model. P values of ≤0.05 were considered statistically significant with results reported as risk ratios (RR), mean differences (MD), 95 % confidence intervals (CI) and I2 statistics. RESULTS: Seven literatures were analysed, consisting of 19,340 patients aged 65 or older undergoing hospitalization. Subjects were assessed with screening tools to identify malnutrition. Malnourished subjects are compared to others with normal nutrition; in cohort studies with follow-up period ranging from 3 to 16 months. Malnutrition significantly increased the risks of rehospitalization within 30 days (RR 1.73 [95 % CI 1.10-2.72], p = 0.02, I2 = 56 %), overall rehospitalization at all times (RR 1.33 [95 % CI 1.16-1.52], p < 0.0001, I2 = 75 %), and overall mortality (RR 2.66 [95 % CI 1.09-6.50], p = 0.03, I2 = 94 %). CONCLUSION: Malnutrition exhibited significant consequences in older patients regarding the rate of rehospitalization and mortality based on this meta-analysis. Further research is highly encouraged to verify this finding.

A risk scoring model to predict progression of retinopathy of prematurity for Indonesia.

INTRODUCTION: Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a serious eye disease in preterm infants. Generally, the progression of this disease can be detected by screening infants regularly. In case of progression, treatment can be instituted to stop the progression. In Indonesia, however, not all infants are screened because the number of pediatric ophthalmologists trained to screen for ROP and provide treatment is limited. Therefore, other methods are required to identify infants at risk of developing severe ROP. OBJECTIVE: To assess a scoring model's internal and external validity to predict ROP progression in Indonesia. METHOD: To develop a scoring model and determine its internal validity, we used data on 98 preterm infants with ROP who had undergone one or more serial eye examinations between 2009 and 2014. For external validation, we analyzed data on 62 infants diagnosed with ROP irrespective of the stage between 2017 and 2020. Patients stemmed from one neonatal unit and three eye clinics in Jakarta, Indonesia. RESULTS: We identified the duration of oxygen supplementation, gestational age, socio-economic status, place of birth, and oxygen saturation monitor setting as risk factors for developing ROP. We developed two models-one based on the duration of supplemental oxygen and one on the setting of the oxygen saturation monitor. The ROP risk and probabilistic models obtained the same sensitivity and specificity for progression to Type 1 ROP. The agreement, determined with the Kappa statistic, between the ROP risk model's suitability and the probabilistic model was excellent. The external validity of the ROP risk model showed 100% sensitivity, 73% specificity, 76% positive predictive value, 100% negative predictive value, positive LR +3.7, negative LR 0, 47% pre-test probability, and 77% post-test probability. CONCLUSION: The ROP risk scoring model can help to predict which infants with first-stage ROP might show progression to severe ROP and may identify infants who require referral to a pediatric ophthalmologist for treatment.

Incidence and risk factors for syphilis infection among men who have sex with men: A cohort study from an urban sexual health clinic in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Objective: Syphilis infection remains a significant health issue among marginalised populations in Indonesia, in particular among men who have sex with men (MSM), in whom there are limited studies from Indonesia exploring risk factors associated with STI acquisition.Our study aimed to identify risk factors of syphilis infection among MSM attending large sexual health clinic in Jakarta. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis using patient records (MSM aged 18 years or older) period Jan 2018-Dec 2019. We used Cox regression to identify risk factors associated with syphilis incidence. Results: Study population were 2912 MSM tested for syphilis, 473 (16.2%) were diagnosed with syphilis on their first visit; early syphilis (415; 14%) and latent syphilis (58, 2%). Among the cohort of 2439 MSM who tested negative at baseline, 40 MSM were identified with a new positive syphilis result during 2 years follow up. Risk factors remaining significantly associated with syphilis incidence included having STI symptom at 1st visit (aHR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.38-5.65), and HIV-infection (aHR 4.53; 95% CI 2.24 - 9.17).Syphilis incidence rate was 8.19 (95% CI 6.01-11.16) per 100 PYFU. Conclusions: Syphilis infection at baseline and incidence was high among MSM attending this large clinic in Jakarta. Integrated and accessible syphilis prevention and detection coupled with HIV services are needed, with a special focus on high-risk individuals.

The First Intra-Action Review of Indonesia's Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic, August 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on health, society, and the economy globally and in Indonesia. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommended the use of intra-action reviews (IARs) to identify best practices, gaps, and lessons learned to make real-time improvements to the COVID-19 response. The Emergency Committee of the International Health Regulations (2005) has recommended that countries share COVID-19 best practices and lessons learned with peer countries through IARs. Using WHO-established methodology, we conducted the first IAR of Indonesia's COVID-19 response from January through August 2020. The review covered 10 thematic areas (pillars): (1) command and coordination; (2) operational support and logistics; (3) surveillance, rapid response teams, risk assessment, and field investigation; (4) laboratories; (5) case management; (6) infection prevention and control; (7) risk communication and community empowerment; (8) points of entry, international travel, and transportation; (9) large-scale social restrictions; and (10) maintaining essential health services and systems. We held focus group discussions with a variety of stakeholders from a range of government departments, provincial health offices, and nongovernmental organizations. We used the results of the focus group discussions and other key findings from the IAR to formulate recommendations. The IAR identified key areas for improvement at national and subnational levels across all 10 pillars. Priority recommendations included improving multisectoral coordination and monitoring of COVID-19 response plan indicators; strengthening implementation of public health response measures, including case detection, isolation, infection prevention and control, contact tracing, and quarantine; and improving data collection, analysis, and reporting to inform public health risk assessment and response. The IAR is a useful tool for reviewing progress and identifying areas to improve the COVID-19 response in real time and provides a means to share information on areas of need with COVID-19 response partners and contributes to International Health Regulations (2005) core capacity development.

A Survival Analysis of Successful and Poor Treatment Outcome Among Patients with Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis and the Associated Factors: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis and its resistance are a major global health problem in the world. The increased incidence and mortality of tuberculosis in Indonesia remain a big public health issue especially in Jakarta Province. No published studies have focused on assessing the outcome treatment of tuberculosis resistance both in success and death. We aimed this study to assess the survival of cured and death outcomes as well as the determinant factors which might influence drugs resistant tuberculosis in Jakarta between 2010 and 2015. METHODS: this study analyzed the national electronic tuberculosis register (e-TB Manager) of Jakarta province in 2010 to 2015. All adult patients who lived in Jakarta province and were diagnosed with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) were eligible for the study. Kaplan Meier survival curve was used, together with log-rank test and Chi-Square (X2) test for descriptive analysis. Cox regression analysis helped determine the potential risk factors. Several risk factors were analyzed in this study, including age, gender, residency, HIV status, resistance status, and history of previous treatment. RESULTS: we analyzed 553 samples in this study. The drug-resistant tuberculosis cases increased gradually from 2010 to 2015. Of all cases, 248 and 67 patients were cured and death, respectively. There was a difference in survival rate between patients diagnosed with MDR-TB and XDR-TB with successful treatment. Poor treatment outcome (death) among patients was predicted by age greater than 60 years old (HR 3.48; 95% CI 1.48 - 8.38, p-value = 0.004). CONCLUSION: there was a difference survival rates between success treatment (cured) and poor treatment outcome (death) during six years of observation. Age of patients is a single-predictor in survival of death. While, HIV status and resistance status were predictors in survival of cured.

How to prevent ROP in preterm infants in Indonesia?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a severe disease in preterm infants. It is seen more frequently in Low-Middle Income Countries (LMIC) like Indonesia compared to High-Income Countries (HIC). Risk factors for ROP development are -extreme- preterm birth, use of oxygen, neonatal infections, respiratory problems, inadequate nutrition, and blood and exchange transfusions. In this paper, we give an overview of steps that can be taken in LMIC to prevent ROP and provide guidelines for screening and treating ROP. METHODS: Based on the literature search and data obtained by us in Indonesia's studies, we propose guidelines for the prevention, screening, and treatment of ROP in preterm infants in LMIC. RESULTS: Prevention of ROP starts before birth with preventing preterm labor, transferring a mother who might deliver <32 weeks to a perinatal center and giving corticosteroids to mothers that might deliver <34 weeks. Newborn resuscitation must be done using room air or, in the case of very preterm infants (<29-32 weeks) by using 30% oxygen. Respiratory problems must be prevented by starting continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) in all preterm infants <32 weeks and in case of respiratory problems in more mature infants. If needed, the surfactant should be given in a minimally invasive manner, as ROP's lower incidence was found using this technique. The use of oxygen must be strictly regulated with a saturation monitor of 91-95%. Infections must be prevented as much as possible. Both oral and parenteral nutrition should be started in all preterm infants on day one of life with preferably mothers' milk. Blood transfusions can be prevented by reducing the amount of blood needed for laboratory analysis. DISCUSSION: Preterm babies should be born in facilities able to care for them optimally. The use of oxygen must be strictly regulated. ROP screening is mandatory in infants born <34 weeks, and infants who received supplemental oxygen for a prolonged period. In case of progression of ROP, immediate mandatory treatment is required. CONCLUSION: Concerted action is needed to reduce the incidence of ROP in LMIC. "STOP - R1O2P3" is an acronym that can help implement standard practices in all neonatal intensive care units in LMIC to prevent development and progression.

Influence of Micronutrient Consumption by Tuberculosis Patients on the Sputum Conversion Rate: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis Study.

BACKGROUND: infectious disease is one of the global health challenge in the world, including tuberculosis. Some factors significantly associated with increased treatment success, including the duration of treatment or treatment compliance, use more than three sensitive drugs, individualized regimen, and weight-related to micronutrient. METHODS: a systematic review and meta-analysis study of randomized control trial studies conducted and reported by preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The primary data source was online publications, consist of three bases data, which subscribed by Universitas Indonesia, they are Proquest, EBSCO CINAHL, EBSCO Dentistry. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool, and data were analyzed using Review Manager 2015. RESULTS: there were eight full paper rates as relevant studies. There was a significant difference of effect among the intervention group compared the control group (or placebo group). RR of the pooled estimate was 1.12 (95% CI: 1.06 - 1.18) with heterogeneity study 36%. While, the poled calculated based on type of micronutrient from seven studies showed there was no difference of sputum conversion between Vitamin D and placebo group (RR-1.05, 95% CI 0.99 - 1.12) with heterogeneity study 0% and a significant result seems among Zinc and Retinol intervention (RR=1.21, 95% CI 1.09 - 1.35) with heterogeneity study 40%. CONCLUSION: micronutrient intervention during tuberculosis treatment has a positive effect toward to sputum conversion among patient. Zinc and retinol influence sputum conversion while vitamin D did not.

Norrie disease gene polymorphism in Indonesian infants with retinopathy of prematurity.

OBJECTIVE: Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a major cause of blindness in newborn infants, which also occurs in low-income and middle-income countries. Why ROP progresses in some infants while it regresses in others is still presently unknown. Studies suggest that genetic factors might be involved. Mutations in the Norrie disease (ND) gene are suspected to be related to advanced ROP development. Indonesia is a country with relatively high incidence of ROP, yet the role of these genetic factors in the pathogenesis of ROP cases is still unknown. The study aimed to investigate the presence of mutations in ND on the X chromosome in infants with both non-advanced and advanced ROP in Indonesia. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a case-control study of polymorphisms in six variants within the ND gene in exon 3, C597A, L108P, R121W, A105T, V60E and C110G, in preterm newborn infants in four major hospitals in Greater Jakarta, Indonesia. RESULTS: We included 162 preterm newborn infants. ROP was diagnosed in 83 infants, and 79 infants served as controls. Among those with ROP, 57 infants had type 2, while others had type 1. We did not find any gene polymorphisms in any of the infants with ROP nor in the control group. CONCLUSION: We conclude that it is very unlikely that the six polymorphisms in exon 3 of the ND gene studied in this paper are involved in the development or progression of ROP in preterm infants in our population sample in Indonesia.