Development of a Clinical Prediction Model for In-hospital Mortality from the South African Cohort of the African Surgical Outcomes Study.

BACKGROUND: Data on the factors that influence mortality after surgery in South Africa are scarce, and neither these data nor data on risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality after surgery are routinely collected. Predictors related to the context or setting of surgical care delivery may also provide insight into variation in practice. Variation must be addressed when planning for improvement of risk-adjusted outcomes. Our objective was to identify the factors predicting in-hospital mortality after surgery in South Africa from available data. METHODS: A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to identify predictors of 30-day in-hospital mortality in surgical patients in South Africa. Data from the South African contribution to the African Surgical Outcomes Study were used and included 3800 cases from 51 hospitals. A forward stepwise regression technique was then employed to select for possible predictors prior to model specification. Model performance was evaluated by assessing calibration and discrimination. The South African Surgical Outcomes Study cohort was used to validate the model. RESULTS: Variables found to predict 30-day in-hospital mortality were age, American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status category, urgent or emergent surgery, major surgery, and gastrointestinal-, head and neck-, thoracic- and neurosurgery. The area under the receiver operating curve or c-statistic was 0.859 (95% confidence interval: 0.827-0.892) for the full model. Calibration, as assessed using a calibration plot, was acceptable. Performance was similar in the validation cohort as compared to the derivation cohort. CONCLUSION: The prediction model did not include factors that can explain how the context of care influences post-operative mortality in South Africa. It does, however, provide a basis for reporting risk-adjusted perioperative mortality rate in the future, and identifies the types of surgery to be prioritised in quality improvement projects at a local or national level.

Quality of recovery after total hip and knee arthroplasty in South Africa: a national prospective observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Encouraged by the widespread adoption of enhanced recovery protocols (ERPs) for elective total hip and knee arthroplasty (THA/TKA) in high-income countries, our nationwide multidisciplinary research group first performed a Delphi study to establish the framework for a unified ERP for THA/TKA in South Africa. The objectives of this second phase of changing practice were to document quality of patient recovery, record patient characteristics and audit standard perioperative practice. METHODS: From May to December 2018, nine South African public hospitals conducted a 10-week prospective observational study of patients undergoing THA/TKA. The primary outcome was 'days alive and at home up to 30 days after surgery' (DAH30) as a patient-centred measure of quality of recovery incorporating early death, hospital length of stay (LOS), discharge destination and readmission during the first 30 days after surgery. Preoperative patient characteristics and perioperative care were documented to audit practice. RESULTS: Twenty-one (10.1%) out of 207 enrolled patients had their surgery cancelled or postponed resulting in 186 study patients. No fatalities were recorded, median LOS was 4 (inter-quartile-range (IQR), 3-5) days and 30-day readmission rate was 3.8%, leading to a median DAH30 of 26 (25-27) days. Forty patients (21.5%) had pre-existing anaemia and 24 (12.9%) were morbidly obese. In the preoperative period, standard care involved assessment in an optimisation clinic, multidisciplinary education and full-body antiseptic wash for 67 (36.2%), 74 (40.0%) and 55 (30.1%) patients, respectively. On the first postoperative day, out-of-bed mobilisation was achieved by 69 (38.1%) patients while multimodal analgesic regimens (paracetamol and Non-Steroid-Anti-Inflammatory-Drugs) were administered to 29 patients (16.0%). CONCLUSION: Quality of recovery measured by a median DAH30 of 26 days justifies performance of THA/TKA in South African public hospitals. That said, perioperative practice, including optimisation of modifiable risk factors, lacked standardisation suggesting that quality of patient care and postoperative recovery may improve with implementation of ERP principles. Notwithstanding the limited resources available, we anticipate that a change of practice for THA/TKA is feasible if 'buy-in' from the involved multidisciplinary units is obtained in the next phase of our nationwide ERP initiative. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov ( NCT03540667 ).

A Multicenter, Cross-Sectional Quality Improvement Project: The Perioperative Implementation of a Hypertension Protocol by Anesthesiologists.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is a common risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, with a high prevalence in patients presenting for elective surgery. In limited resource environments, patients have poor access to primary care physicians, limiting the efficacy of lifestyle modification for the management of hypertension. In these circumstances, the perioperative period presents a unique opportunity for diagnosis and initiation and/or modification of pharmacotherapy of hypertension. Anesthesiologists are ideally placed to lead this aspect of perioperative medicine. The study objective was for anesthesiologists to identify patients at the preoperative visit with previously undiagnosed or poorly controlled chronic hypertension and follow a simple management algorithm. METHODS: In collaboration with expert physicians, we designed and implemented an algorithm for the diagnosis and management of chronic hypertension. This was a multicenter, cross-sectional quality improvement project in 7 hospitals in the Western Cape, South Africa. On the day before scheduled elective surgery, adult in-patients had 2 sets of blood pressure (BP) readings taken, one by nurses and the other by anesthesiologists, using a noninvasive automated BP device. These were averaged on an electronic database, to diagnose hypertension. Patients with normal BP or well-controlled hypertension required no further management. Those with borderline BP received educational pamphlets. Patients with stage 1 or 2 hypertension were managed with medication according to the algorithm, starting 1 day postoperatively, and provided with educational pamphlets. Patients with stage 3 disease had their surgery postponed and were referred to a physician. The primary outcome was adherence by the anesthesiologist to the algorithm in the diagnosis and management of hypertension. An 80% adherence rate was considered successful implementation. The secondary outcome was the adherence to the algorithm at discharge. RESULTS: Two hundred ninety-eight patients were screened for hypertension. One hundred six patients were eligible for the quality improvement project. Thirty-seven (34.9%) had borderline BP readings, 43 (40.6%) had stage 1, 22 (20.8%) stage 2, and 4 (3.8%) stage 3 hypertension, respectively. The adherence rate by the anesthesiologist in initiating treatment according to the algorithm was 89 of 106 (84.0%; 95% confidence interval [CI, 77.0-91.0). There was full adherence to the algorithm in 59 of 106 (55.5%; 95% CI, 46.2-65.1) at the time of discharge from hospital. CONCLUSIONS: Anesthesiologists successfully implemented a quality improvement project for diagnosis and management of hypertension in the perioperative period. This has the potential to reduce the public health burden of hypertension in limited resource environments. Successful ongoing prescription and follow-up requires cooperation within a multidisciplinary team.

Sociodemography, Geography, and Personality as Determinants of Car Driving and Use of Public Transportation.

To address the sustainability challenges related to travel behavior, technological innovations will not be enough. Behavioral changes are also called for. The aim of the present study is to examine the influence of sociodemography, geography, and personality on car driving and use of public transportation. Sociodemographic factors have been defined by age, gender, income, and education. Geographic factors have been studied through residential area (e.g., rural and urban areas). Personality has been studied through the Five-Factor-Model of personality-degree of Openness, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. The analysis is based on a survey with 1812 respondents, representative for the Swedish population. Regarding sociodemographic factors, car driving is explained by being male, higher age, higher income, while use of public transportation is explained by lower age and higher education. The user profile of a car driver is the opposite to that of a public transport passenger when it comes to geographic factors; urban residential area explains public transportation while rural area explains car driving. Some personality factors are also opposites; a low degree of Openness and a high degree of Extraversion explain car driving, while a high degree of Openness and a low degree of Extraversion explain use of public transportation. Moreover, car driving is explained by a low degree of Neuroticism, while use of public transportation is explained by a low degree of Conscientiousness and a high degree of Agreeableness. Since sociodemography, geography, and personality influence how people process information and evaluate market propositions (e.g., products and services), the findings presented here are useful for policymakers and transportations planners who would like to change behavior from car driving to public transportation use. Caution should be taken in interpreting the relationship between personality traits and transportation modes, since the personality traits are measured by a short scale (i.e., Big Five Inventory (BFI)-10), with limitations in the factor structure for a representative sample of the Swedish population.

Motor patterns of distal hind limb muscles in walking turtles: Implications for models of limb bone loading.

Previous studies of limb bone loading in walking turtles indicate that the ground reaction force exerts a flexor moment at the ankle during stance, requiring extensor muscle activity to maintain joint equilibrium. Of four proposed ankle extensors in turtles, two (gastrocnemius medialis, pronator profundus) originate on the tibia and fibula, respectively, while the other two (flexor digitorum longus, gastrocnemius lateralis) originate from the distal femur, crossing the flexor aspect of the knee and potentially eliciting compensatory forces from antagonist knee extensor muscles that could contribute to femoral stress. Published bone stress models assume all four proposed ankle extensors are active during stance in turtles. However, if only the ankle extensors that cross the knee were active then femoral stresses might be higher than predicted by published models, whereas if only extensors that do not cross the knee were active then femoral stresses might be lower than predicted. We analyzed synchronized footfall and electromyographic activity patterns in slider turtles (Trachemys scripta) and found that all four proposed ankle extensors were active during at least part of stance phase in most individuals, corroborating bone stress models. However, activation patterns were complex, with multiple bursts in many ankle extensors that frequently persisted into swing phase. In addition, two hypothesized ankle flexors (tibialis anterior, extensor digitorum communis) were frequently active during stance. This might increase the joint moment that ankle extensors must counter, elevating the forces they transfer across the knee joint and, thereby, raising femoral stress. Recognition of these activity patterns may help reconcile differences between evaluations of loads on turtle limbs based on force platform versus in vivo strain studies. Moreover, while some variation in motor patterns for the distal hind limbs of turtles may reflect functional compartmentalization of muscles, it may also indicate flexibility in the control of their limb movements.