A regionally tailored epidemiological forecast and monitoring program to guide a healthcare system in the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, analytics and predictive models built on regional data provided timely, accurate monitoring of epidemiological behavior, informing critical planning and decision-making for health system leaders. At Atrium Health, a large, integrated healthcare system in the southeastern United States, a team of statisticians and physicians created a comprehensive forecast and monitoring program that leveraged an array of statistical methods. METHODS: The program utilized the following methodological approaches: (i) exploratory graphics, including time plots of epidemiological metrics with smoothers; (ii) infection prevalence forecasting using a Bayesian epidemiological model with time-varying infection rate; (iii) doubling and halving times computed using changepoints in local linear trend; (iv) death monitoring using combination forecasting with an ensemble of models; (v) effective reproduction number estimation with a Bayesian approach; (vi) COVID-19 patients hospital census monitored via time series models; and (vii) quantified forecast performance. RESULTS: A consolidated forecast and monitoring report was produced weekly and proved to be an effective, vital source of information and guidance as the healthcare system navigated the inherent uncertainty of the pandemic. Forecasts provided accurate and precise information that informed critical decisions on resource planning, bed capacity and staffing management, and infection prevention strategies. CONCLUSIONS: In this paper, we have presented the framework used in our epidemiological forecast and monitoring program at Atrium Health, as well as provided recommendations for implementation by other healthcare systems and institutions to facilitate use in future pandemics.

Remote monitoring following adult cardiac surgery: A paradigm shift?

Background: The Perfect Care (PC) initiative engages, educates, and enrolls adult cardiac surgery patients into a transformational program that includes an app for appointment scheduling, tracking biometric data and patient-reported outcomes, audiovisual visits, and messaging, paired with a digital health kit (consisting of a fitness tracker, scale, and sphygmomanometer). PC aims to reduce postoperative length of stay (LOS) as well as 30-day readmission and mortality. Methods: This was a retrospective review of patients who underwent coronary artery bypass (CAB), valve, or combined CAB and valve procedures at either of the 2 participating hospitals between April 2018 and March 2022. Patients who participated in the PC quality improvement initiative were compared to propensity-matched controls (1:1 matching). The evaluation focused on postoperative LOS and a novel composite measure comprising 30-day readmission and mortality. Results: Remote monitoring (PC) was associated with a shorter postoperative LOS, lower combined rate of 30-day readmission and mortality, and less variation compared to matched non-PC controls. Conclusions: Integrated improvements in postoperative remote monitoring of adult cardiac surgery patients may reduce time in the hospital and post-acute care facilities. Future prioritized efforts include the development of additional, personalized biometric monitoring devices, use of biometric data to augment risk assessment, and investigation of the value of remote monitoring on various patient risk profiles to address potential disparities in care.

Technologic Transformation of Perioperative Cardiac Care and Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The "Perfect Care" initiative engages, educates, and enrolls adult cardiac surgery patients into a comprehensive program that incorporates remote perioperative monitoring (RPM). This study investigated the impact of RPM on postoperative length of stay, 30-day readmission and mortality, and other outcomes. METHODS: This quality improvement project compared outcomes in 354 consecutive patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass and who were enrolled in RPM between July 2019 and March 2022 at 2 centers against outcomes in propensity-matched control patients from a pool of 1301 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass from April 2018 to March 2022 without RPM. Data were extracted from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database, and outcomes were analyzed according to its definitions. RPM used perioperative standard practice routines, a digital health kit for remote monitoring, a smartphone application and platform, and nurse navigators. Propensity scores were generated with RPM as the outcome measure, and a 2:1 match was generated using a nearest-neighbor matching algorithm. RESULTS: Patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass and who were participating in RPM showed a statistically significant, 15.4% (1 day) reduction in postoperative length of stay (P < .0001) and a 44% reduction in 30-day readmission and mortality (P < .039) compared with matched control patients. Significantly more RPM participants were discharged directly home instead of to a facility (99.4% vs 92.0%; P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: The RPM platform and associated efforts to engage and monitor adult cardiac surgery patients remotely is feasible, is embraced by patients and clinicians, and transforms perioperative cardiac care by significantly improving outcomes and reducing variation.

Oral hygiene and infective endocarditis: a case control study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if oral hygiene is associated with infective endocarditis (IE) among those at moderate risk for IE. STUDY DESIGN: This is a case control study of oral hygiene among hospitalized patients with IE (cases) and outpatients with heart valve disease but without IE (controls). The primary outcome was the mean dental calculus index. Secondary outcomes included other measures of oral hygiene and periodontal disease (e.g., dental plaque, gingivitis) and categorization of blood culture bacterial species in case participants. RESULTS: The 62 case participants had 53% greater mean dental calculus index than the 119 control participants (0.84, 0.55, respectively; difference = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.11, 0.48; P = .002) and 26% greater mean dental plaque index (0.88, 0.70, respectively; difference = 0.18, 95% CI: 0.01.0.36; P = .043). Overall, cases reported fewer dentist and dental hygiene visits (P = .013) and fewer dental visits in the 12 weeks before enrollment than controls (P = .007). Common oral bacteria were identified from blood cultures in 27 of 62 cases (44%). CONCLUSIONS: These data provide evidence to support and strengthen current American Heart Association guidance that those at risk for IE can reduce potential sources of IE-related bacteremia by maintaining optimal oral health through regular professional dental care and oral hygiene procedures.

A predictive internet-based model for COVID-19 hospitalization census.

The COVID-19 pandemic has strained hospital resources and necessitated the need for predictive models to forecast patient care demands in order to allow for adequate staffing and resource allocation. Recently, other studies have looked at associations between Google Trends data and the number of COVID-19 cases. Expanding on this approach, we propose a vector error correction model (VECM) for the number of COVID-19 patients in a healthcare system (Census) that incorporates Google search term activity and healthcare chatbot scores. The VECM provided a good fit to Census and very good forecasting performance as assessed by hypothesis tests and mean absolute percentage prediction error. Although our study and model have limitations, we have conducted a broad and insightful search for candidate Internet variables and employed rigorous statistical methods. We have demonstrated the VECM can potentially be a valuable component to a COVID-19 surveillance program in a healthcare system.

Improving appropriate use of echocardiography and single-photon emission computed tomographic myocardial perfusion imaging: a continuous quality improvement initiative.

BACKGROUND: Appropriate use criteria for cardiovascular imaging have been published, but compliance in practice has been incomplete, with persistent high rates of inappropriate use. The aim of this study was to show the efficacy of a continuous quality improvement (CQI) initiative to favorably influence the appropriate use of outpatient transthoracic echocardiography and single-photon emission computed tomographic (SPECT) myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) in a large cardiovascular practice. METHODS: In this prospective study, a multiphase CQI initiative was implemented, and its impact on ordering patterns for outpatient transthoracic echocardiography and SPECT MPI was assessed. Between November and December 2010, a baseline analysis of the application of appropriate use criteria to indications for outpatient transthoracic echocardiographic studies (n = 203) and SPECT MPI studies (n = 205) was performed, with studies categorized as "appropriate," "inappropriate," "uncertain," or "unclassified." The CQI initiative was then begun, with (1) clinician education, including didactic lectures and case-based presentations with audience participation; (2) system changes in ordering processes, with redesigned image ordering forms; and (3) peer review and feedback. A follow-up analysis was then performed between June and August 2012, with categorization of indications for transthoracic echocardiographic studies (n = 206) and SPECT MPI studies (n = 206). RESULTS: At baseline, 73.9% of echocardiographic studies were categorized as appropriate, 16.7% as inappropriate, 5.9% as uncertain, and 3.4% as unclassified. Similarly, for SPECT MPI studies 71.7% were categorized as appropriate, 18.5% as inappropriate, 7.8% as uncertain, and 1.9% as unclassified. Separate analysis of the two most important categories, appropriate and inappropriate, demonstrated a significant improvement after the CQI initiative, with a 63% reduction in inappropriate echocardiographic studies (18.5% vs 6.9%, P = .0010) and a 46% reduction in inappropriate SPECT MPI studies (20.5% vs 11.1%, P = .010). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the effective and persistent positive impact of a CQI initiative to reduce inappropriate ordering of cardiovascular imaging.

ACCF/SCAI/STS/AATS/AHA/ASNC/HFSA/SCCT 2012 appropriate use criteria for coronary revascularization focused update: a report of the American College of Cardiology Foundation Appropriate Use Criteria Task Force, Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions, Society of Thoracic Surgeons, American Association for Thoracic Surgery, American Heart Association, American Society of Nuclear Cardiology, and the Society of Cardiovascular Computed Tomography.

The American College of Cardiology Foundation (ACCF), Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions, Society of Thoracic Surgeons, and the American Association for Thoracic Surgery, along with key specialty and subspecialty societies, conducted an update of the appropriate use criteria (AUC) for coronary revascularization frequently considered. In the initial document, 180 clinical scenarios were developed to mimic patient presentations encountered in everyday practice and included information on symptom status, extent of medical therapy, risk level as assessed by noninvasive testing, and coronary anatomy. This update provides a reassessment of clinical scenarios the writing group felt to be affected by significant changes in the medical literature or gaps from prior criteria. The methodology used in this update is similar to the initial document, and the definition of appropriateness was unchanged. The technical panel scored the clinical scenarios on a scale of 1 to 9. Scores of 7 to 9 indicate that revascularization is considered appropriate and likely to improve patients' health outcomes or survival. Scores of 1 to 3 indicate revascularization is considered inappropriate and unlikely to improve health outcomes or survival. Scores in the mid-range (4 to 6) indicate a clinical scenario for which the likelihood that coronary revascularization will improve health outcomes or survival is uncertain. In general, as seen with the prior AUC, the use of coronary revascularization for patients with acute coronary syndromes and combinations of significant symptoms and/or ischemia is appropriate. In contrast, revascularization of asymptomatic patients or patients with low-risk findings on noninvasive testing and minimal medical therapy are viewed less favorably. The technical panel felt that based on recent studies, coronary artery bypass grafting remains an appropriate method of revascularization for patients with high burden of coronary artery disease (CAD). Additionally, percutaneous coronary intervention may have a role in revascularization of patients with high burden of CAD. The primary objective of the appropriate use criteria is to improve physician decision making and patient education regarding expected benefits from revascularization and to guide future research.