A Satellite Account for Health in the United States.

This paper develops a satellite account for the US health sector and measures productivity growth in health care for the elderly population between 1999 and 2012. We measure the change in medical spending and health outcomes for a comprehensive set of 80 conditions. Medical care has positive productivity growth over the time period, with aggregate productivity growth of 1.5% per year. However, there is significant heterogeneity in productivity growth. Care for cardiovascular disease has had very high productivity growth. In contrast, care for people with musculoskeletal conditions has been costly but has not led to improved outcomes.

Attributing medical spending to conditions: A comparison of methods.

To understand the cost burden of medical care it is essential to partition medical spending into conditions. Two broad strategies have been used to measure disease-specific spending. The first attributes each medical claim to the condition that physicians list as its cause. The second decomposes total spending for a person over a year to their cumulative set of health conditions. Traditionally, this has been done through regression analysis. This paper has two contributions. First, we develop a new cost attribution method to attribute spending to conditions using a more flexible attribution approach, based on propensity score analysis. Second, we compare the propensity score approach to the claims-based approach and the regression approach in a common set of beneficiaries age 65 and older in the 2009 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey. Our estimates show that the three methods have important differences in spending allocation and that the propensity score model likely offers the best theoretical and empirical combination.

Explaining The Slowdown In Medical Spending Growth Among The Elderly, 1999-2012.

We examined trends in per capita spending for Medicare beneficiaries ages sixty-five and older in the United States in the period 1999-2012 to determine why spending growth has been declining since around 2005. Decomposing spending by condition, we found that half of the spending slowdown was attributable to slower growth in spending for cardiovascular diseases. Spending growth also slowed for dementia, renal and genitourinary diseases, and aftercare for people with acute illnesses. Using estimates from the medical literature of the impact of pharmaceuticals on acute disease, we found that roughly half of the reduction in major cardiovascular events was attributable to medications controlling cardiovascular risk factors. Despite this substantial cost-saving improvement in cardiovascular health, additional opportunities remain to lower spending through disease prevention and control.

Enhancing Administrative Data to Predict Emergency Department Utilization: The Role of Neighborhood Sociodemographics.

Much of emergency department use is avoidable, and high-quality primary care can reduce it, but performance measures related to ED use may be inadequately risk-adjusted. To explore associations between emergency department (ED) use and neighborhood poverty, we conducted a secondary analysis of Massachusetts managed care network data, 2009-2011. For enrollees with commercial insurance (n = 64,623), we predicted any, total, and total primary-care-sensitive (PCS) ED visits using claims/enrollment (age, sex, race, morbidity, prior ED use), network (payor, primary care provider [PCP] type and quality), and census-tract-level characteristics. Overall, 14.6% had any visit; mean visits per 100 persons were 18.8 (±0.2) total and 7.6 (±0.1) PCS. Neighborhood poverty predicted all three outcomes (all P< .001). Holding providers accountable for their patients' ED use should avoid penalizing PCPs who care for poor and otherwise vulnerable populations. Expected use targets should account for neighborhood-level variables such as income, as well as other risk factors.

Trends in acute myocardial infarction hospitalizations: Are we seeing the whole picture?

BACKGROUND: Payers and policy makers rely on studies of trends in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) hospitalizations and spending that count only hospitalizations where the AMI is the principal discharge diagnosis. Hospitalizations with AMI coded as a secondary diagnosis are ignored. The effects of excluding these hospitalizations on estimates of trends are unknown. METHODS: Observational study of all AMI hospitalizations in Fee-for-Service Medicare beneficiaries 65 years and older, from 2002 through 2011. RESULTS: We studied 3,663,137 hospitalizations with any AMI discharge diagnosis over 288,873,509 beneficiary-years. Of these, 66% had AMI coded as principal (versus secondary). From 2002 to 2011, AMI hospitalization rates declined 24.5% (from 1,485 per 100,000 beneficiary-years in 2002 to 1,122 in 2011). Meanwhile, the proportion of these hospitalizations with a secondary AMI diagnosis increased from 28% to 40%; by 2011 these secondary AMI hospitalizations accounted for 43% of all expenditures for hospitalizations with AMI, or $2.8 billion. Major changes in comorbidities, principal diagnoses and mean costs for hospitalizations with a non-principal AMI diagnosis occurred in the 2006-2008 timeframe. CONCLUSIONS: Current estimates of the burden of AMI ignore an increasingly large proportion of overall AMI hospitalizations and spending. Changes in the characteristics of hospitalizations that coincided with major payment and policy changes suggest that non-clinical factors affect AMI coding. Failing to consider all AMIs could inflate estimates of population health improvements, overestimate the value of AMI prevention and treatment and underestimate current and future AMI burden and expenditures.

Pain management in nursing home residents with cancer.

OBJECTIVES: To assess improvements in pain management of nursing home (NH) residents with cancer since the implementation of pain management quality indicators. DESIGN: Cross-sectional. SETTING: One thousand three hundred eighty-two U.S. NHs (N = 1,382). PARTICIPANTS: Newly admitted, Medicare-eligible NH residents with cancer (N = 8,094). MEASUREMENTS: Nationwide data on NH resident health from Minimum Data Set 2.0 linked to all-payer pharmacy dispensing records (February 2006-June 2007) were used to determine prevalence of pain, including frequency and intensity, and receipt of nonopioid and opioid analgesics. Multinomial logistic regression was used to evaluate resident-level correlates of pain and binomial logistic regression to identify correlates of untreated pain. RESULTS: More than 65% of NH residents with cancer had any pain (28.3% daily, 37.3%

Antidepressant Use and Cognitive Decline: The Health and Retirement Study.

BACKGROUND: Depression is associated with cognitive impairment and dementia, but whether treatment for depression with antidepressants reduces the risk for cognitive decline is unclear. We assessed the association between antidepressant use and cognitive decline over 6 years. METHODS: Participants were 3714 adults aged 50 years or more who were enrolled in the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study and had self-reported antidepressant use. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the 8-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Cognitive function was assessed at 4 time points (2004, 2006, 2008, 2010) using a validated 27-point scale. Change in cognitive function over the 6-year follow-up period was examined using linear growth models, adjusted for demographics, depressive symptoms, comorbidities, functional limitations, and antidepressant anticholinergic activity load. RESULTS: At baseline, cognitive function did not differ significantly between the 445 (12.1%) participants taking antidepressants and those not taking antidepressants (mean, 14.9%; 95% confidence interval, 14.3-15.4 vs mean, 15.1%; 95% confidence interval, 14.9-15.3). During the 6-year follow up period, cognition declined in both users and nonusers of antidepressants, ranging from -1.4 change in mean score in those with high depressive symptoms and taking antidepressants to -0.5 change in mean score in those with high depressive symptoms and not taking antidepressants. In adjusted models, cognition declined in people taking antidepressants at the same rate as those not taking antidepressants. Results remained consistent across different levels of baseline cognitive function, age, and duration of antidepressant use (prolonged vs short-term). CONCLUSIONS: Antidepressant use did not modify the course of 6-year cognitive change in this nationally representative sample.

Follow-up compliance after endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair in Medicare beneficiaries.

OBJECTIVE: Lifelong imaging follow-up is essential to the safe and appropriate management of patients who undergo endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR). We sought to evaluate the rate of compliance with imaging follow-up after EVAR and to identify factors associated with being lost to imaging follow-up. METHODS: We identified a 20% sample of continuously enrolled Medicare beneficiaries who underwent EVAR between 2001 and 2008. Using data through 2010 from Medicare Inpatient, Outpatient, and Carrier files, we identified all abdominal imaging studies that may have been performed for EVAR follow-up. Patients were considered lost to annual imaging follow-up if they did not undergo any abdominal imaging study within their last 2 years of follow-up. Multivariable models were constructed to identify independent factors associated with being lost to annual imaging follow-up. RESULTS: Among 19,962 patients who underwent EVAR, the incidence of loss to annual imaging follow-up at 5 years after EVAR was 50%. Primary factors associated with being lost to annual imaging follow-up were advanced age (age 65-69 years, reference; age 75-79 years: hazard ratio [HR], 1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.15-1.32; age 80-85 years: HR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.35-1.55; age >85 years: HR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.88-2.20) and presentation with an urgent/emergent intact aneurysm (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.20-1.35) or ruptured aneurysm (HR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.63-2.08). Additional independent factors included several previously diagnosed chronic diseases and South and West regions of the United States. CONCLUSIONS: Annual imaging follow-up compliance after EVAR in the United States is significantly below recommended levels. Quality improvement efforts to encourage improved compliance with imaging follow-up, especially in older patients with multiple comorbidities and in those who underwent EVAR urgently or for rupture, are necessary.

Comparison of trends in US health-related quality of life over the 2000s using the SF-6D, HALex, EQ-5D, and EQ-5D visual analog scale versus a broader set of symptoms and impairments.

BACKGROUND: A number of instruments have been developed to measure health-related quality of life (HRQoL), differing in the health domains covered and their scoring. Although few such measures have been consistently included in US national health surveys over time, the surveys have included data on a broad range of symptoms and impairments, which enables the tracking of population health trends. OBJECTIVES: To compare trends in HRQoL as measured using existing instruments versus using a broader range of symptoms and impairments collected in multiple years of nationally representative data. DATA AND MEASURES: Data were from the 2000-2010 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, which is nationally representative of the noninstitutionalized US population. Level of and trends in HRQoL derived from a broad range of survey symptoms and impairments (SSI) was compared with HRQoL from the SF-6D, the HALex, and, between 2000 and 2003, the EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) and EQ-5D Visual Analog Scale. RESULTS: Trends in HRQoL were similar using different measures. The SSI scores correlated 0.66-0.80 with scores from other measures and mean SSI scores were between those of other measures. Scores from all HRQoL measures declined similarly with increasing age and with the presence of comorbid conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Measuring HRQoL using a broader range of symptoms and impairments than those in a single instrument yields population health trends similar to those from other measures while making maximum use of existing data and providing rich detail on the factors underlying change.

Trends in the incidence, treatment, and outcomes of acute lower extremity ischemia in the United States Medicare population.

OBJECTIVE: Acute lower extremity ischemia (ALI) is a common vascular surgery emergency associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess contemporary trends in the incidence of ALI, the methods of treatment, and the associated mortality and amputation rates in the U.S. Medicare population. METHODS: This was an observational study using Medicare claims data between 1998 and 2009. Outcomes examined included trends in the incidence of ALI; trends in interventions for ALI; and trends in amputation, mortality, and amputation-free survival rates. RESULTS: Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of hospitalization for ALI decreased from 45.7 per 100,000 to 26.0 per 100,000 (P for trend < .001). The percentage of patients undergoing surgical intervention decreased from 57.1% to 51.6% (P for trend < .001), whereas the percentage of patients undergoing endovascular interventions increased from 15.0% to 33.1% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital mortality rates decreased from 12.0% to 9.0% (P for trend < .001), whereas 1-year mortality rates remained stable at 41.0% and 42.5% (P for trend not significant). In-hospital amputation rates remained stable at 8.1% and 6.4% (P for trend not significant), whereas 1-year amputation rates decreased from 14.8% to 11.0% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital amputation-free survival after hospitalization for ALI increased from 81.2% to 85.4% (P for trend < .001); however, 1-year amputation-free survival remained unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of ALI among the U.S. Medicare population declined significantly, and the percentage of patients treated with endovascular techniques markedly increased. During this time, 1-year amputation rates declined. Furthermore, although in-hospital mortality rates declined after presentation with ALI, 1-year mortality rates remained unchanged.

Trends in stroke rates, risk, and outcomes in the United States, 1988 to 2008.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. We describe trends in the incidence, outcomes, and risk factors for stroke in the US Medicare population from 1988 to 2008. METHODS: We analyzed data from a 20% sample of hospitalized Medicare beneficiaries with a principal discharge diagnosis of ischemic (n = 918,124) or hemorrhagic stroke (n = 133,218). Stroke risk factors were determined from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (years 1988-1994, 2001-2008) and medication uptake from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (years 1992-2008). Primary outcomes were stroke incidence and 30-day mortality after stroke hospitalization. RESULTS: Ischemic stroke incidence decreased from 927 per 100,000 in 1988 to 545 per 100,000 in 2008, and hemorrhagic stroke decreased from 112 per 100,000 to 94 per 100,000. Risk-adjusted 30-day mortality decreased from 15.9% in 1988 to 12.7% in 2008 for ischemic stroke and from 44.7% to 39.3% for hemorrhagic stroke. Although observed stroke rates decreased, the Framingham stroke model actually predicted increased stroke risk (mean stroke score 8.3% in 1988-1994, 8.8% in 2005-2008). Statin use in the general population increased (4.0% in 1992, 41.4% in 2008), as did antihypertensive use (53.0% in 1992, 73.5% in 2008). CONCLUSIONS: Incident strokes in the Medicare population aged ≥65 years decreased by approximately 40% over the last 2 decades, a decline greater than expected on the basis of the population's stroke risk factors. Case fatality from stroke also declined. Although causality cannot be proven, declining stroke rates paralleled increased use of statins and antihypertensive medications.

US trends in quality-adjusted life expectancy from 1987 to 2008: combining national surveys to more broadly track the health of the nation.

OBJECTIVES: We used data from multiple national health surveys to systematically track the health of the US adult population. METHODS: We estimated trends in quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) from 1987 to 2008 by using national mortality data combined with data on symptoms and impairments from the National Medical Expenditure Survey (1987), National Health Interview Survey (1987, 1994-1995, 1996), Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (1992, 1996, 2000-2008), National Nursing Home Survey (1985, 1995, and 1999), and Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (1992, 1994-2008). We decomposed QALE into changes in life expectancy, impairments, symptoms, and smoking and body mass index. RESULTS: Years of QALE increased overall and for all demographic groups-men, women, Whites, and Blacks-despite being slowed by increases in obesity and a rising prevalence of some symptoms and impairments. Overall QALE gains were large: 2.4 years at age 25 years and 1.7 years at age 65 years. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding and consistently tracking the drivers of QALE change is central to informed policymaking. Harmonizing data from multiple national surveys is an important step in building this infrastructure.

Policy makers will need a way to update bundled payments that reflects highly skewed spending growth of various care episodes.

Bundled payment entails paying a single price for all services delivered as part of an episode of care for a specific condition. It is seen as a promising way to slow the growth of health care spending while maintaining or improving the quality of care. To implement bundled payment, policy makers must set base payment rates for episodes of care and update the rates over time to reflect changes in the costs of delivering care and the components of care. Adopting the fee-for-service paradigm of adjusting payments with uniform update rates would be fair and accurate if costs increased at a uniform rate across episodes. But our analysis of 2003 and 2007 US commercial claims data showed spending growth to be highly skewed across episodes: 10 percent of episodes accounted for 82.5 percent of spending growth, and within-episode spending growth ranged from a decline of 75 percent to an increase of 323 percent. Given that spending growth was much faster for some episodes than for others, a situation known as skewness, policy makers should not update episode payments using uniform update rates. Rather, they should explore ways to address variations in spending growth, such as updating episode payments one by one, at least at the outset.

Measuring health care costs of individuals with employer-sponsored health insurance in the U.S.: A comparison of survey and claims data.

As the core nationally representative health expenditure survey in the United States, the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) is increasingly being used by statistical agencies to track expenditures by disease. However, while MEPS provides a wealth of data, its small sample size precludes examination of spending on all but the most prevalent health conditions. To overcome this issue, statistical agencies have turned to other public data sources, such as Medicare and Medicaid claims data, when available. No comparable publicly available data exist for those with employer-sponsored insurance. While large proprietary claims databases may be an option, the relative accuracy of their spending estimates is not known. This study compared MEPS and MarketScan estimates of annual per person health care spending on individuals with employer-sponsored insurance coverage. Both total spending and the distribution of annual per person spending differed across the two data sources, with MEPS estimates 10 percent lower on average than estimates from MarketScan. These differences appeared to be a function of both underrepresentation of high expenditure cases and underestimation across the remaining distribution of spending.

Psychological distress and trends in healthcare expenditures and outpatient healthcare.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether trends in psychological distress exist in the United States and whether trends in healthcare expenditures and outpatient visits were associated with psychological distress. STUDY DESIGN: Sequential cross-sectional study of nationally representative data. METHODS: We examined data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) from 1997 to 2004 linked to 2 years of subsequent Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data. Psychological distress was measured in the NHIS using the K6, a 6-item scale of the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale, which we classified as no/low, mild-moderate, or severe. We examined subsequent annualized total, outpatient, and office-based expenditures, and outpatient and office-based visits from MEPS. RESULTS: Psychological distress remained stable from 1997 to 2004. There were upward trends in overall healthcare expenditures (P <.001) and outpatient expenditures (P <.001), but not outpatient visits. Overall healthcare expenditures, outpatient expenditures, and outpatient visits significantly increased as psychological distress increased from no/low to mild-moderate to severe. The interaction between psychological distress strata and year was not significant for expenditures or for visits. CONCLUSIONS: The upward trend in total and outpatient healthcare expenditures in the United States appears unrelated to psychological distress, although healthcare expenditures are consistently higher among those with greater psychological distress. Future work will explore the impact of treatment on costs and stability of the nation's mental health over time.

Trends in thrombolytic use for ischemic stroke in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Although recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) improves outcomes from ischemic stroke, prior studies have found low rates of administration. Recent guidelines and regulatory agencies have advocated for increased tPA administration in appropriate patients, but it is unclear how many patients actually receive tPA. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether national rates of tPA use for ischemic stroke have increased over time. METHODS: We identified all patients with a primary diagnosis of ischemic stroke from years 2001 to 2006 in the National Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS), a nationally representative sample of inpatient hospitalizations, and searched for procedure codes for intravenous thrombolytic administration. Clinical and demographic factors were obtained from the survey and multivariable logistic regression used to identify independent predictors associated with thrombolytic use. RESULTS: Among the 22,842 patients hospitalized with ischemic stroke, tPA administration rates increased from 0.87% in 2001 to 2.40% in 2006 (P < 0.001 for trend). Older patients were less likely to receive tPA (adjusted odds ratio [OR] and 95% confidence interval [CI]; 0.4 [0.3-0.6] for patients ≥80 years vs. <60 years), as were African American patients (0.4 [0.3-0.7]). Larger hospitals were more likely to administer tPA (3.3 [2.0-5.6] in hospitals with at least 300 beds compared to those with 6-99 beds). CONCLUSIONS: Although tPA administration for ischemic stroke has increased nationally in recent years, the overall rate of use remains very low. Larger hospitals were more likely to administer tPA. Further efforts to improve appropriate administration of tPA should be encouraged, particularly as the acceptable time-window for using tPA widens.

A bibliometric review of cost-effectiveness analyses in the economic and medical literature: 1976-2006.

BACKGROUND: Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) presenting a cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) ratio is frequently used to determine ''value for money'' in health care. Despite the proliferation of CEA research, there has been no detailed study focusing on the bibliometric properties of this literature. OBJECTIVES: To describe and analyze trends in publications and coauthorship in the CEA literature from 1976 to 2006 and to identify the most prolific authors and research groups conducting CEAs. METHODS: The authors used the Tufts Medical Center Registry of original CEAs published through 2006 (www.cearegistry.org). For each article, they recorded the year of publication, the journal title, and the number of contributing authors and their names. Authors were assigned credit based on their weighted contribution to the study (1 credit point for the first and last authors, (1/2) point for the second author, and ( 1)=(n) credit points for all other authors, where n reflects the number of coauthors). RESULTS: Approximately 1400 CEAs presenting a cost/QALY ratio were published in 420 journals through 2006. The mean number of contributing authors was 4.7 +/- 2.4. Medical journals were characterized by a higher number of coauthors, as compared with the economic and health policy journals: 4.8 +/- 2.4 v. 4.2 +/- 2.0, P < 0.001. The lowest average number of coauthors was in Medical Decision Making (3.6) and the highest in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology (8.2). The most prolific authors were affiliated with Harvard and Tufts Universities and their affiliated hospitals. The authors identified 4 major research groups that contributed substantially to the field of cost-effectiveness analysis but did not find any substantial academic relationships across these groups. CONCLUSIONS: The CEA literature continues to proliferate. Coauthorship trends appear to follow the rapid increase in the mean number of authors found in other publication types.

Evidence that value-based insurance can be effective.

Value-based insurance design reduces patient copayments to encourage the use of health care services of high clinical value. As employers face constant pressure to control health care costs, this type of coverage has received much attention as a cost-savings device. This paper's examination of one value-based insurance design program found that the program led to reduced use of nondrug health care services, offsetting the costs associated with additional use of drugs encouraged by the program. The findings suggest that value-based insurance design programs do not increase total systemwide medical spending.

Hospitalizations and deaths among adults with cardiovascular disease who underuse medications because of cost: a longitudinal analysis.

CONTEXT: It is well-documented that the financial burden of out-of-pocket expenditures for prescription drugs often leads people with medication-sensitive chronic illnesses to restrict their use of these medications. Less is known about the extent to which such cost-related medication underuse is associated with increases in subsequent hospitalizations and deaths. OBJECTIVE: We compared the risk of hospitalizations among 5401 and of death among 6135 middle-aged and elderly adults with one or more cardiovascular diseases (diabetes, coronary artery disease, heart failure, and history of stroke) according to whether participants did or did not report restricting prescription medications because of cost. DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective biannual cohort study across 4 cross-sectional waves of the Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative survey of adults older than age 50. Using multivariate logistic regression to adjust for baseline differences in sociodemographic and health characteristics, we assessed subsequent hospitalizations and deaths between 1998 and 2006 for respondents who reported that they had or had not taken less medicine than prescribed because of cost. RESULTS: Respondents with cardiovascular disease who reported underusing medications due to cost were significantly more likely to be hospitalized in the next 2 years, even after adjusting for other patient characteristics (adjusted predicted probability of 47% compared with 38%, P < 0.001). The more survey waves respondents reported cost-related medication underuse during 1998 to 2004, the higher the probability of being hospitalized in 2006 (adjusted predicted probability of 54% among respondents reporting cost-related medication underuse in all 4 survey waves compared with 42% among respondents reporting no underuse, P < 0.001). There was no independent association of cost-related medication underuse with death. CONCLUSIONS: In this nationally representative cohort, middle-aged and elderly adults with cardiovascular disease who reported cutting back on medication use because of cost were more likely to report being hospitalized over a subsequent 2-year period after they had reported medication underuse. The more extensively respondents reported cost-related underuse over time, the higher their adjusted predicted probability of subsequent hospitalization.