Environmental Factors Predictive of No-Show Visits in Radiology: Observations of Three Million Outpatient Imaging Visits Over 16 Years.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the impact of environmental and socioeconomic factors on outpatient cancellations and "no-show visits" (NSVs) in radiology. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis by collecting environmental factor data related to outpatient radiology visits occurring between 2000 and 2015 at our multihospital academic institution. Appointment attendance records were joined with daily weather observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and estimated median income from the US Census American Community Survey. A multivariate logistic regression model was built to examine relationships between NSV rate and median income, commute distance, maximum daily temperature, and daily snowfall. RESULTS: There were 270,574 (8.0%) cancellations and 87,407 (2.6%) NSVs among 3,379,947 scheduled outpatient radiology appointments and 575,206 unique patients from 2000 to 2015. Overall cancellation rates decreased from 14% to 8%, and NSV rates decreased from 6% to 1% as median income increased from $20,000 to $120,000 per year. In a multivariate model, the odds of NSV decreased 10.7% per $10,000 increase in median income (95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.3%-11.1%) and 2.0% per 10°F increase in maximum daily temperature (95% CI: 1.3%-1.6%). The odds of NSV increased 1.4% per 10-mile increase in commute distance (95% CI: 1.3%-1.6%) and 4.5% per 1-inch increase in daily snowfall (95% CI: 3.6%-5.3%). Commute distance was more strongly associated with NSV for those in the two lower tertiles of income than the highest tertile (P < .001). CONCLUSION: Environmental factors are strongly associated with patients' attendance at scheduled outpatient radiology examinations. Modeling of appointment failure risk based on environmental features can help increase the attendance of outpatient radiology appointments.

Understanding Why Patients No-Show: Observations of 2.9 Million Outpatient Imaging Visits Over 16 Years.

PURPOSE: To understand why patients "no-show" for imaging appointments, and to provide new insights for improving resource utilization. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of nearly 2.9 million outpatient examinations in our radiology information system from 2000 to 2015 at our multihospital academic institution. No-show visits were identified by the "reason code" entry "NOSHOW" in our radiology information system. We restricted data to radiography, CT, mammography, MRI, ultrasound, and nuclear medicine examinations that included all studied variables. These variables included modality, patient age, appointment time, day of week, and scheduling lead time. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with no-show visits. RESULTS: Out of 2,893,626 patient visits that met our inclusion criteria, there were 94,096 no-shows during the 16-year period. Rates of no-show visits varied from 3.36% in 2000 to 2.26% in 2015. The effect size for no-shows was strongest for modality and scheduling lead time. Mammography had the highest modality no-show visit rate of 6.99% (odds ratio [OR] 5.38, P < .001) compared with the lowest modality rate of 1.25% in radiography. Scheduling lead time greater than 6 months was associated with more no-show visits than scheduling within 1 week (OR 3.18, P < .001). Patients 60 years and older were less likely to miss imaging appointments than patients under 40 (OR 0.70, P < .001). Mondays and Saturdays had significantly higher rates of no-show than Sundays (OR 1.52 and 1.51, P < .001). CONCLUSION: Modality type and scheduling lead time were the most predictive factors of no-show. This may be used to guide new interventions such as targeted reminders and flexible scheduling.

Predictive modeling to identify scheduled radiology appointments resulting in non-attendance in a hospital setting.

No-show appointments are a troublesome, but frequent, occurrence in radiology hospital departments and private practice. Prior work in medical appointment no-show prediction has focused on general practice and has not considered features specific to the radiology environment. We collect data from 16 years of outpatient examinations in a multi-site hospital radiology department. Data from the radiology information system (RIS) are fused with patient income estimated from U.S. Census data. Features were categorized into three groups: Patient, Exam, and Scheduling. Models based on the total feature set and separately on each feature group were developed using logistic regression to assess the per-appointment likelihood of no-show. After five-fold cross-validation, no-show prediction using the total feature set from 554,611 appointments yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.770 ± 0.003. Feature groups that were most informative in the prediction of no-show appointments were those based on the type of exam and on scheduling attributes such as the lead time of scheduling the appointment. A data-driven no-show prediction model like the one presented here could be useful to schedulers in the implementation of an automated scheduling policy or the assignment of examinations with a high risk of no-show to lower impact appointment slots.