ABSTRACT
As Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) decline across much of their range, it is imperative to further develop minimally invasive tools to quantify population abundance. One such advancement, trans-generational genetic mark-recapture (tGMR), uses parentage analysis to estimate the size of wild populations. Our study examined the precision and accuracy of tGMR through a comparison to a traditional mark-recapture estimate for Chilkat River Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) in Southeast Alaska. We examined how adult sampling location and timing impact tGMR by comparing estimates derived using samples collected in the lower river mainstem to those using samples obtained in upriver spawning tributaries. Results indicated that tGMR estimates using a representative sample of mainstem adults were most concordant with, and 3% more precise than, the traditional mark-recapture estimate for this stock. Importantly, the timing and location of adult sampling were found to impact abundance estimates, depending on what proportion of the population dies or moves to unsampled areas between downriver and upriver sampling events. Additionally, we identified potential sources of bias in tGMR arising from violations of key assumptions using a novel individual-based modeling framework, parameterized with empirical values from the Chilkat River. Simulations demonstrated that increased reproductive success and sampling selectivity of older, larger individuals, introduced negative bias into tGMR estimates. Our individual-based model offers a customizable and accessible method to identify and quantify these biases in tGMR applications (https://github.com/swrosenbaum/tGMR_simulations). We underscore the critical role of system-specific sampling design considerations in ensuring the precision and accuracy of tGMR projects. This study validates tGMR as a potentially useful tool for improved population enumeration in semelparous species.
ABSTRACT
Variations in sacral segmentation may preclude safe placement of transsacral screws for posterior pelvis fixation. We developed a novel automated 3D technique to determine the safe zone size for transsacral screws in the upper two sacral segments in 526 adult pelvis computed tomography scans. Safe zone sizes were then compared by gender and sacral segmentation variations (number of neuroforamen and the presence/absence of lumbosacral transitional vertebrae, ± LSTV). Ten millimeters was used as the safety threshold for a large screw. 3 (0.6%), 366 (70%), and 157 (30%) sacra had 3, 4, or 5 neuroforamen, respectively. Eighty-eight (17%) were +LSTV. Safe zone size depended on gender, number of neuroforamen in -LSTV sacra and presence of LSTV (p < 0.001) but not on the uni- or bilateral nature of the LSTV. 17% of -LSTV sacra were below the safety threshold in S1, 27% in S2, whereas 3% of +LSTV sacra were below in S1, 74% in S2. Of -LSTV sacra that cannot take an S1 screw safely, 77% can do so in S2, leaving only 4% of sacra that cannot accommodate a screw safely in either upper segment. The results demonstrate a predictable pattern of safe zone size based on gender and sacral segmentation variations.
