Estimating the total incidence of type 1 diabetes in children and adolescents aged 0-19 years from 1990 to 2050: a global simulation-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies of type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence have found large variations in reported incidence around the world. However, it is unclear whether these reported incidence levels are impacted by differences in country health systems and possible underdiagnosis and if so, to what degree. The aim of this study was to estimate both the total and diagnosed incidence of type 1 diabetes globally and to project childhood type 1 diabetes incidence indicators from 1990 to 2050 for each country. METHODS: We developed the type 1 diabetes global microsimulation model to simulate the natural history and diagnosis of type 1 diabetes for children and adolescents (aged 0-19 years) in 200 countries and territories, accounting for variability in underlying incidence and health system performance. The model follows an open population of children and adolescents in monthly intervals and simulates type 1 diabetes incidence and progression, as well as health system factors which influence diagnosis. We calibrated the model to published data on type 1 diabetes incidence, autoantibody profiles, and proportion of cases diagnosed with diabetic ketoacidosis from 1990 to 2020 and assessed the predictive accuracy using a randomly sampled test set of data withheld from calibration. FINDINGS: We estimate that in 2021 there were 355 900 (95% UI 334 200-377 300) total new cases of type 1 diabetes globally among children and adolescents, of which 56% (200 400 cases, 95% UI 180 600-219 500) were diagnosed. Estimated underdiagnosis varies substantially by region, with over 95% of new cases diagnosed in Australia and New Zealand, western and northern Europe, and North America, but less than 35% of new cases diagnosed in west Africa, south and southeastern Asia, and Melanesia. The total number of incident childhood cases of type 1 diabetes is projected to increase to 476 700 (95% UI 449 500-504 300) in 2050. INTERPRETATION: Our research indicates that the total global incidence of childhood and adolescent type 1 diabetes is larger than previously estimated, with nearly one-in-two children currently undiagnosed. Policymakers should plan for adequate diagnostic and medical capacity to improve timely type 1 diabetes detection and treatment, particularly as incidence is projected to increase worldwide, with highest numbers of new cases in Africa. FUNDING: Novo Nordisk.

The Kenya UK Breast Cancer Awareness Week: curriculum codesign and codelivery with direct and lived experience of breast cancer diagnosis and management.

Global health education holds a paradox: the provision of global health degrees focusing on challenges in low-income and middle-income countries has increased in high-income countries, while those in these low-income and middle-income countries lack access to contribute their expertise, creating an 'information problem'. Breast cancer is a pressing global health priority, which requires curriculum design, implementation, ownership and leadership by those with direct and lived experience of breast cancer.The Kenya-UK Breast Cancer Awareness Week was conceptualised following the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between the Kenyan and UK governments launching the Kenya UK Health Alliance. This alliance aims to promote health cooperation to address Kenya's breast cancer challenge. Here, we present the first of the collaborative's initiatives: a breast cancer global health education programme designed, implemented, owned and led by Kenyan stakeholders.We present the utilisation of the Virtual Roundtable for Collaborative Education Design for the design and implementation of a nationwide virtual breast cancer awareness week delivered across eleven Kenyan medical schools. By involving partners with lived and/or professional experience of breast cancer in Kenya in all stages of the design and delivery of the awareness week, the project experimented with disrupting power dynamics and fostered ownership of the initiative by colleagues with direct expertise of breast cancer in Kenya.This initiative provides a platform, precedent and playbook to guide professionals from other specialties in the design and implementation of similar global collaborative ventures. We have used this approach to continue to advocate for global health curricula design change, so that those with lived experiences of global health challenges in their contextualised professional and personal environments are given leadership, reward and ownership of their curricula and further to highlight breast cancer as a global heath priority.

The Prevalence of Islet Autoantibodies in Children and Adolescents With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus: A Global Scoping Review.

Background and Purpose: Pancreatic islet autoantibodies (iAb) are the hallmark of autoimmunity in type 1 diabetes. A more comprehensive understanding of the global iAb prevalence could help reduce avertible morbidity and mortality among children and adolescents and contribute to the understanding in the observed differences in the incidence, prevalence and health outcomes of children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes across and within countries. We present the first scoping review that provides a global synthesis of the prevalence of iAb in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes. Research Design and Methods: We searched Ovid MEDLINE® with Daily Update, Embase (Elsevier, embase.com) and PubMed (National Library of Medicine -NCBI), for studies pertaining to prevalence in children and adolescents (0-19) with type 1 diabetes published between 1 Jan 1990 and 18 June 2021. Results were synthesized using Covidence systematic review software and meta-analysis was completed using R v3·6·1. Two reviewers independently screened abstracts with a third reviewer resolving conflicts (k= 0·92). Results: The review revealed 125 studies from 48 different countries, with 92 from high-income countries. Globally, in new-onset type 1 diabetes, IA-2A was the most prevalent iAb 0·714 [95% CI (0·71, 0·72)], followed by ICA 0·681 [95% CI (0·67, 0·69)], ZnT8A was 0·654 [95% CI (0·64, 0·66)], GADA 0·636 [95% CI (0·63, 0·66)] and then IAA 0·424 [95% CI (0·42, 0·43)], with substantial variation across world regions. The weighted mean prevalence of IA-2A was more variable, highest in Europe at 0·749 [95% CI (0·74, 0·76)] followed by Northern America 0·662 [95% CI (0·64, 0·69)], Latin America and the Caribbean 0·632 [95% CI (0·54, 0·72)], Oceania 0·603 [95% CI (0·54, 0·67)], Asia 0·466 [95% CI (0·44, 0·50)] and Africa 0·311 [95% CI (0·23, 0·40)]. In established cases of type 1 diabetes, GADA was the most prevalent iAb 0·407 [95% CI (0·39, 0·42)] followed by ZnT8A 0·322 [95% CI (0·29, 0·36)], IA-2A 0·302 [95% CI (0·29, 0·32)], IAA 0·258 [95% CI (0·24, 0·26)] and ICA 0·145 [95% CI (0·13, 0·16)], again with substantial variation across world regions. Conclusion: Understanding the global prevalence of iAb in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes could help with earlier identification of those at-risk of developing type 1 diabetes and inform clinical practice, health policies, resource allocation, and targeted healthcare interventions to better screen, diagnose and manage children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes.

Variation in the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus in children and adolescents by world region and country income group: A scoping review.

INTRODUCTION: Around 18.7 million of the 537 million people with diabetes worldwide live in low-income and middle-income countries (LMIC), where there is also an increase in the number of children, adolescents, and young adults diagnosed with type 1 diabetes (T1D). There are substantial gaps in data in the current understanding of the epidemiological patterns and trends in incidence rates of T1D at the global level. METHODS: We performed a scoping review of published studies that established the incidence of T1D in children, adolescents, and young adults aged 0-25 years at national and sub-national levels using PubMed, Embase and Global Health. Data was analyzed using R programming. RESULTS: The scoping review identified 237 studies which included T1D incidence estimates from 92 countries, revealing substantial variability in the annual incidence of T1D by age, geographic region, and country-income classification. Highest rates were reported in the 5-9 and 10-14 year age groups than in the 0-4 and 15-19 year age groups, respectively. In the 0-14 year age group, the highest incidence was reported in Northern Europe (23.96 per 100,000), Australia/New Zealand (22.8 per 100,000), and Northern America (18.02 per 100,000), while the lowest was observed in Melanesia, Western Africa, and South America (all < 1 per 100,000). For the 0-19 year age group, the highest incidence was reported in Northern Europe (39.0 per 100,000), Northern America (20.07 per 100,000), and Northern Africa (10.1 per 100,000), while the lowest was observed in Eastern and Western Africa (< 2 per 100,000). Higher incidence rates were observed in high-income countries compared to LMICs. There was a paucity of published studies focusing on determining the incidence of T1D in LMICs. CONCLUSION: The review reveals substantial variability in incidence rates of T1D by geographic region, country income group, and age. There is a dearth of information on T1D in LMICs, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where incidence remains largely unknown. Investment in population-based registries and longitudinal cohort studies could help improve the current understanding of the epidemiological trends and help inform health policy, resource allocation, and targeted interventions to enhance access to effective, efficient, equitable, and responsive healthcare services.

A Preliminary Investigation of Cast Anxiety in General Orthopaedic Practice.

BACKGROUND: Anxiety following casting is an unrecognised complication that results in frequent visits to fracture clinic in the UK. There is a paucity of research regarding this complication. Failure to recognise Cast Anxiety (CA) leads to increased visits, frequent cast changes and possible failure of treatment despite no objective problems with the cast. Prior research has suggested a possible link between CA and claustrophobia but lacks statistical evidence. The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Psychiatric Disorders (DSM-V) categorizes claustrophobia as a Specific Phobia (SP) and questionnaires for both claustrophobia and SP exist. As such, the main purpose of this study is to examine the statistical correlation between the SP Questionnaire and the Claustrophobia Questionnaire to identify if a link exists between CA and claustrophobia. The secondary goal is to develop a screening questionnaire to identify those at high risk of CA, the significance of which lies in possible prevention of failure of surgical treatment and frequent visits to fracture clinic. METHODS: Self-report questionnaires were distributed to patients attending fracture clinic and accident emergency for review/ cast application/ problems with the cast over a one month period, no preference between upper or lower limb casts. This group completed both self-report questionnaires (N=157). From this group, patients were identified as having CA if they required frequent cast changes and frequent visits to fracture clinic despite no objective problems with the cast, or had themselves described feelings of anxiety/ claustrophobia. Follow up interviews with patients identified as having CA were undertaken. On the basis of the data gathered, a screening questionnaire was developed and distributed to a second group of patients with the same inclusion and exclusion criteria (N=50). RESULTS: A correlation between the two questionnaires was found: N= 157, r= 0.522, P<0.001. Three themes were identified as encompassing CA: Anxiety, Cognition and Physiological responses and Behaviour, evidencing an anxiety based disorder. The screening questionnaire identified over 80% of patients suffering from CA when scoring > 20/26. *Any patient scoring = 20/26 should be considered high risk of CA. CONCLUSION: Based on this data, CA fits the criteria of an anxiety based condition. The modified screening tool permits early identification of individuals at high risk of CA. Usage of the screening tool is encouraged prior to casting and for future research modifications. Early identification will allow consideration of an alternative treatment option, anticipatory conversation and could prevent the failure of treatment.

Pucker sign in an adult distal radial fracture.

Puckering of the skin following a fracture is a rare sign which can result in skin necrosis if the fracture is not urgently reduced. Skin puckering is associated with humeral, tibia and clavicular fractures. We present a case of a 79-year-old woman who fell on to her outstretched hand sustaining a right radial fracture with obvious skin puckering. Following X-rays, local anaesthetic was given and the skin was reduced, the fracture manipulated and a full cast applied. The patient made a full recovery. To our knowledge, this is the first reported case of the pucker sign in an adult radial fracture.