Scenario-based modelling of changes in chemical intake fraction in Sweden and the Baltic Sea under global change.

The climate in Europe is warming twice as fast as it is across the rest of the globe, and in Sweden annual mean temperatures are forecast to increase by up to 3-6 °C by 2100, with increasing frequency and magnitude of floods, heatwaves, and other extreme weather. These climate change-related environmental factors and the response of humans at the individual and collective level will affect the mobilization and transport of and human exposure to chemical pollutants in the environment. We conducted a literature review of possible future impacts of global change in response to a changing climate on chemical pollutants in the environment and human exposure, with a focus on drivers of change in exposure of the Swedish population to chemicals in the indoor and outdoor environment. Based on the literature review, we formulated three alternative exposure scenarios that are inspired by three of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We then conducted scenario-based exposure modelling of the >3000 organic chemicals in the USEtox® 2.0 chemical library, and further selected three chemicals (terbuthylazine, benzo[a]pyrene, PCB-155) from the USEtox library that are archetypical pollutants of drinking water and food as illustrative examples. We focus our modelling on changes in the population intake fraction of chemicals, which is calculated as the fraction of a chemical emitted to the environment that is ingested via food uptake or inhaled by the Swedish population. Our results demonstrate that changes of intake fractions of chemicals are possible by up to twofold increases or decreases under different development scenarios. Changes in intake fraction in the most optimistic SSP1 scenario are mostly attributable to a shift by the population towards a more plant-based diet, while changes in the pessimistic SSP5 scenario are driven by environmental changes such as rain fall and runoff rates.

Combined effects of heatwaves and micropollutants on freshwater ecosystems: Towards an integrated assessment of extreme events in multiple stressors research.

Freshwater ecosystems are strongly influenced by weather extremes such as heatwaves (HWs), which are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude in the future. In addition to these climate extremes, the freshwater realm is impacted by the exposure to various classes of chemicals emitted by anthropogenic activities. Currently, there is limited knowledge on how the combined exposure to HWs and chemicals affects the structure and functioning of freshwater ecosystems. Here, we review the available literature describing the single and combined effects of HWs and chemicals on different levels of biological organization, to obtain a holistic view of their potential interactive effects. We only found a few studies (13 out of the 61 studies included in this review) that investigated the biological effects of HWs in combination with chemical pollution. The reported interactive effects of HWs and chemicals varied largely not only within the different trophic levels but also depending on the studied endpoints for populations or individuals. Hence, owing also to the little number of studies available, no consistent interactive effects could be highlighted at any level of biological organization. Moreover, we found an imbalance towards single species and population experiments, with only five studies using a multitrophic approach. This results in a knowledge gap for relevant community and ecosystem level endpoints, which prevents the exploration of important indirect effects that can compromise food web stability. Moreover, this knowledge gap impairs the validity of chemical risk assessments and our ability to protect ecosystems. Finally, we highlight the urgency of integrating extreme events into multiple stressors studies and provide specific recommendations to guide further experimental research in this regard.

ECORISK2050: An Innovative Training Network for predicting the effects of global change on the emission, fate, effects, and risks of chemicals in aquatic ecosystems.

By 2050, the global population is predicted to reach nine billion, with almost three quarters living in cities. The road to 2050 will be marked by changes in land use, climate, and the management of water and food across the world. These global changes (GCs) will likely affect the emissions, transport, and fate of chemicals, and thus the exposure of the natural environment to chemicals. ECORISK2050 is a Marie Sklodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network that brings together an interdisciplinary consortium of academic, industry and governmental partners to deliver a new generation of scientists, with the skills required to study and manage the effects of GCs on chemical risks to the aquatic environment. The research and training goals are to: (1) assess how inputs and behaviour of chemicals from agriculture and urban environments are affected by different environmental conditions, and how different GC scenarios will drive changes in chemical risks to human and ecosystem health; (2) identify short-to-medium term adaptation and mitigation strategies, to abate unacceptable increases to risks, and (3) develop tools for use by industry and policymakers for the assessment and management of the impacts of GC-related drivers on chemical risks. This project will deliver the next generation of scientists, consultants, and industry and governmental decision-makers who have the knowledge and skillsets required to address the changing pressures associated with chemicals emitted by agricultural and urban activities, on aquatic systems on the path to 2050 and beyond.