Sensitivity analysis of the Pesticide in Water Calculator model for applications in the Pampa region of Argentina.

Despite the widespread use of pesticides in the Pampa region of Argentina, mathematical models are rarely employed to predict pesticide fate due to the lack of regionally tested models and the absence of readily available databases to run such models. The objective of the current study was to perform a sensitivity analysis of the Pesticide in Water Calculator (PWC) model for the Pampa Region of Argentina. The sensitivity analysis was performed while simulating applications of 2,4-D (mobile, low Kd) and glyphosate (soil-binding, high Kd) in five localities of the Pampa region: Anguil, Paraná, Marcos Juárez, Pergamino and Tres Arroyos. The sensitivity of the various parameters involved in PWC modelling was evaluated though a two-steps sensitivity analysis which included a first screening of less sensitive parameters with Morris method, followed by a fully global sensitivity analysis of the remaining parameters using Sobol method. When ran under soil and climate conditions typical of the Pampa region of Argentina, PWC was most sensitive to 25% of the parameters evaluated. The sensitive parameters identified depended mainly on the nature of the pesticide molecule being modelled; the location and endpoint considered having much less influence on the sensitivity results. Sensitive parameters belonged to two main grand categories: (i) degradation rates of the pesticide in soil and water, and (ii) parameters descriptive of soil binding, runoff and erosion. The sensitivity analysis of the model PWC performed in the current study represents a crucial first step towards the development and expansion of probabilistic pesticide risk assessment in Argentina, and provides important parameterization criteria that will help obtaining more certain modelling results from PWC in Argentina and elsewhere.

Can isolated and riparian wetlands mitigate the impact of climate change on watershed hydrology? A case study approach.

The effects of wetlands on stream flows are well established, namely mitigating flow regimes through water storage and slow water release. However, their effectiveness in reducing flood peaks and sustaining low flows is mainly driven by climate conditions and wetland type with respect to their connectivity to the hydrographic network (i.e. isolated or riparian wetlands). While some studies have demonstrated these hydrological functions/services, few of them have focused on the benefits to the hydrological regimes and their evolution under climate change (CC) and, thus, some gaps persist. The objective of this study was to further advance our knowledge with that respect. The PHYSITEL/HYDROTEL modelling platform was used to assess current and future states of watershed hydrology of the Becancour and Yamaska watersheds, Quebec, Canada. Simulation results showed that CC will induce similar changes on mean seasonal flows, namely larger and earlier spring flows leading to decreases in summer and fall flows. These expected changes will have different effects on 20-year and 100-year peak flows with respect to the considered watershed. Nevertheless, conservation of current wetland states should: (i) for the Becancour watershed, mitigate the potential increase in 2-year, 20-year and 100-year peak flows; and (ii) for the Yamaska watershed, accentuate the potential decrease in the aforementioned indicators. However, any loss of existing wetlands would be detrimental for 7-day 2-year and 10-year as well as 30-day 5-year low flows.

Spatio-temporal variations and age effect on Toxoplasma gondii seroprevalence in seals from the Canadian Arctic.

Toxoplasmosis is a significant public health threat for Inuit in the Canadian Arctic. This study aimed to investigate arctic seals as a possible food-borne source of infection. Blood samples collected from 828 seals in 7 Canadian Arctic communities from 1999 to 2006 were tested for Toxoplasma gondii antibodies using a direct agglutination test. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to detect T. gondii DNA in tissues of a subsample of seals. Associations between seal age, sex, species, diet, community and year of capture, and serological test results were investigated by logistic regression. Overall seroprevalence was 10·4% (86/828). All tissues tested were negative by PCR. In ringed seals, seroprevalence was significantly higher in juveniles than in adults (odds ratio=2·44). Overall, seroprevalence varied amongst communities (P=0·0119) and by capture year (P=0·0001). Our study supports the hypothesis that consumption of raw seal meat is a significant source of infection for Inuit. This work raises many questions about the mechanism of transfer of this terrestrial parasite to the marine environment, the preponderance of infection in younger animals and the natural course of infection in seals. Further studies to address these questions are essential to fully understand the health risks for Inuit communities.

Indicator of risk of water contamination by phosphorus from Canadian agricultural land.

The indicator of risk of water contamination by phosphorus (IROWC_P) is designed to estimate where the risk of water P contamination by agriculture is high, and how this risk is changing over time based on the five-year period of data Census frequency. Firstly developed for the province of Quebec (2000), this paper presents an improved version of IROWC_P (intended to be released in 2008), which will be extended to all watersheds and Soil Landscape of Canada (SLC) polygons (scale 1:1, 000, 000) with more than 5% of agriculture. There are three objectives: (i) create a soil phosphorus saturation database for dominant and subdominant soil series of SLC polygons--the soil P saturation values are estimated by the ratio of soil test P to soil P sorption capacity; (ii) calculate an annual P balance considering crop residue P, manure P, and inorganic fertilizer P--agricultural and manure management practices will also be considered; and (iii) develop a transport-hydrology component including P transport estimation by runoff mechanisms (water balance factor, topographic index) and soil erosion, and the area connectivity to water (artificial drainage, soil macropores, and surface water bodies).

Development of a risk-based TMDL assessment approach using the integrated modeling system GIBSI.

Using the integrated modeling system GIB SI and a case study, this paper presents the development of a risk-based TMDL assessment approach that links wet (nonpoint/diffuse) and dry weather (point) sources to a probability of exceeding water quality standards (WQS) governing wateruses. The case study focused on determining whether WQS defining recreational uses of water requiring direct and prolonged contact were attainable if the waste water effluent of a small town was treated using aerated lagoons and if the agricultural nonpoint source (NPS) loads were reduced using different fertilization rates. Dry weather sources were assumed to solely contribute to bacteriological impairment of the studied river reach. Meanwhile, both wet and dry weather sources were assumed to contribute to aesthetic impairment. Simulation results showed that treating the waste water effluent while reducing the agricultural NPS loads by 27% allowed on average over a four-year study period for attainment of the bacteriological WQS 100% of the summer time while lowering the probability of exceeding the aesthetic WQS from 0.32 to 0.19 (30 to 18 days). The results of this study showed this risk-based assessment approach was well suited to establish TMDL. These probabilities should be evaluated using long meteorological series.