Diabetes 2030: Insights from Yesterday, Today, and Future Trends.

To forecast future trends in diabetes prevalence, morbidity, and costs in the United States, the Institute for Alternative Futures has updated its diabetes forecasting model and extended its projections to 2030 for the nation, all states, and several metropolitan areas. This paper describes the methodology and data sources for these diabetes forecasts and discusses key implications. In short, diabetes will remain a major health crisis in America, in spite of medical advances and prevention efforts. The prevalence of diabetes (type 2 diabetes and type 1 diabetes) will increase by 54% to more than 54.9 million Americans between 2015 and 2030; annual deaths attributed to diabetes will climb by 38% to 385,800; and total annual medical and societal costs related to diabetes will increase 53% to more than $622 billion by 2030. Improvements in management reducing the annual incidence of morbidities and premature deaths related to diabetes over this time period will result in diabetes patients living longer, but requiring many years of comprehensive management of multiple chronic diseases, resulting in dramatically increased costs. Aggressive population health measures, including increased availability of diabetes prevention programs, could help millions of adults prevent or delay the progression to type 2 diabetes, thereby helping turn around these dire projections.

Creating public awareness: state 2025 diabetes forecasts.

The incidence and prevalence of diabetes (primarily type 2 diabetes) has risen sharply since 1990. It is projected to increase another 64% between 2010 and 2025, affecting 53.1 million people and resulting in medical and societal costs of a half trillion dollars a year. We know how to prevent many cases of diabetes and how to treat it effectively. Early appropriate treatment makes a significant difference in preventing major complications and reducing premature death, but it does not cure the disease. Early detection of prediabetes, in conjunction with lifestyle changes, can reduce the number of people with diabetes. A dramatic reduction in diabetes prevalence over time will require significant lifestyle changes on the part of society as a whole. The purpose of this study is to increase public awareness of the severity of regional diabetes trends by providing detailed forecasts for all states and several metropolitan areas for 2010, 2015, and 2025. A model was created to utilize the latest national diabetes and population data and projections, and to transform these into state and metropolitan area forecasts for the whole population and major subgroups. These forecasts were then summarized in easy-to-understand briefing papers for each state and selected metro areas, which are provided online for easy public access. This research is important because little data exist that project the future prevalence and potential costs of diabetes at the state and metro area level. With this data, key stakeholders can make informed decisions concerning diabetes, its impact on their communities, and resource allocation.

Absolute frequency measurement of a 1.5-microm acetylene standard by use of a combined frequency chain and femtosecond comb.

We have developed and characterized a pair of Doppler-free acetylene-stabilized diode laser frequency standards as optical communications references. The Allan deviation sigma/f of an individual system reaches a minimum of 4 x 10(-14) at a sampling time of 5000 s, and the long-term lock-point repeatability is found to be 0.4 kHz (one standard uncertainty), corresponding to a fractional uncertainty of 2 x 10(-12). Using a combination of a frequency chain and a self-referenced femtosecond comb, we have measured the frequency of line P(16) of the v1 + v3 overtone band of 13C2H2 to be 194,369,569,385.9 (3.0) kHz. The uncertainty of this number is limited solely by the reproducibility of the standards.