Ecological determinants of Cope's rule and its inverse.

Cope's rule posits that evolution gradually increases the body size in lineages. Over the last decades, two schools of thought have fueled a debate on the applicability of Cope's rule by reporting empirical evidence, respectively, for and against Cope's rule. The apparent contradictions thus documented highlight the need for a comprehensive process-based synthesis through which both positions of this debate can be understood and reconciled. Here, we use a process-based community-evolution model to investigate the eco-evolutionary emergence of Cope's rule. We report three characteristic macroevolutionary patterns, of which only two are consistent with Cope's rule. First, we find that Cope's rule applies when species interactions solely depend on relative differences in body size and the risk of lineage extinction is low. Second, in environments with higher risk of lineage extinction, the recurrent evolutionary elimination of top predators induces cyclic evolution toward larger body sizes, according to a macroevolutionary pattern we call the recurrent Cope's rule. Third, when interactions between species are determined not only by their body sizes but also by their ecological niches, the recurrent Cope's rule may get inverted, leading to cyclic evolution toward smaller body sizes. This recurrent inverse Cope's rule is characterized by highly dynamic community evolution, involving the diversification of species with large body sizes and the extinction of species with small body sizes. To our knowledge, these results provide the first theoretical foundation for reconciling the contrasting empirical evidence reported on body-size evolution.

Algorithmic procedure for retrieving calorific contents of marine phytoplankton from space.

Microscopic marine phytoplankton are crucial for the survival of marine animals and sustainability of marine food webs. Developing our capability to estimate and monitor the calorific value of marine phytoplankton in the global ocean is, therefore, invaluable. Using satellite remote-sensing, Roy (2018) reported the first global estimates of phytoplankton macromolecular concentrations based on a novel semi-analytical ocean-colour algorithm. The complete retrieval method builds on semi-analytical computational steps that were developed independently and were customised for ad-hoc applications to certain ocean-colour repository. Given the increasing interest in applying this method in local, regional and global scales, the technical details and customizations associated with the method is presented in this paper.•The method is presented with extensive level of technical details with illustrations, so that the users can follow this standalone document and implement the method on a coding platform of their choice.•The method can be implemented on any satellite ocean-colour repository, and at any spatial or temporal resolution.•Given that a wide variety of software packages are used in the field of ocean-colour algorithms and that the users may be constrained with certain coding platforms, no specific software package is made mandatory to implement the method.

SEASIM-NEAM: A Spatially-Explicit Agent-based SIMulator of North East Atlantic Mackerel population dynamics.

In 2018 we published a spatially-explicit individual-based model (IBM) that uses satellite-derived maps of food availability and temperature to predict Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus, NEAM) population dynamics. Since then, to address various ecological questions, we have extended the IBM to include additional processes and data. Throughout its development, technical documents have been provided in the form of e.g. supplementary information to published articles. However, we acknowledge that it would be difficult for potential users to collate information from separate supplementary documents and gain a full understanding of the current state of the IBM. Here, we provide a full technical specification of the latest version of our IBM. The technical specification is provided in the standard ODD (Overview, Design concepts and Details) format, and supplemented by a TRACE (TRAnsparent and Comprehensive model Evaludation) document. For the first time, we give our model the acronym SEASIM-NEAM: a Spatially-Explicit Agent-based SIMulator of North East Atlantic Mackerel population dynamics. This article supersedes previous documentation. Going forward we hope that this article will stimulate development of similar models.•This article collates improvements that have been made to SEASIM-NEAM over time.

An Ocean-Colour Time Series for Use in Climate Studies: The Experience of the Ocean-Colour Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI).

Ocean colour is recognised as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV) by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS); and spectrally-resolved water-leaving radiances (or remote-sensing reflectances) in the visible domain, and chlorophyll-a concentration are identified as required ECV products. Time series of the products at the global scale and at high spatial resolution, derived from ocean-colour data, are key to studying the dynamics of phytoplankton at seasonal and inter-annual scales; their role in marine biogeochemistry; the global carbon cycle; the modulation of how phytoplankton distribute solar-induced heat in the upper layers of the ocean; and the response of the marine ecosystem to climate variability and change. However, generating a long time series of these products from ocean-colour data is not a trivial task: algorithms that are best suited for climate studies have to be selected from a number that are available for atmospheric correction of the satellite signal and for retrieval of chlorophyll-a concentration; since satellites have a finite life span, data from multiple sensors have to be merged to create a single time series, and any uncorrected inter-sensor biases could introduce artefacts in the series, e.g., different sensors monitor radiances at different wavebands such that producing a consistent time series of reflectances is not straightforward. Another requirement is that the products have to be validated against in situ observations. Furthermore, the uncertainties in the products have to be quantified, ideally on a pixel-by-pixel basis, to facilitate applications and interpretations that are consistent with the quality of the data. This paper outlines an approach that was adopted for generating an ocean-colour time series for climate studies, using data from the MERIS (MEdium spectral Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) sensor of the European Space Agency; the SeaWiFS (Sea-viewing Wide-Field-of-view Sensor) and MODIS-Aqua (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-Aqua) sensors from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (USA); and VIIRS (Visible and Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USA). The time series now covers the period from late 1997 to end of 2018. To ensure that the products meet, as well as possible, the requirements of the user community, marine-ecosystem modellers, and remote-sensing scientists were consulted at the outset on their immediate and longer-term requirements as well as on their expectations of ocean-colour data for use in climate research. Taking the user requirements into account, a series of objective criteria were established, against which available algorithms for processing ocean-colour data were evaluated and ranked. The algorithms that performed best with respect to the climate user requirements were selected to process data from the satellite sensors. Remote-sensing reflectance data from MODIS-Aqua, MERIS, and VIIRS were band-shifted to match the wavebands of SeaWiFS. Overlapping data were used to correct for mean biases between sensors at every pixel. The remote-sensing reflectance data derived from the sensors were merged, and the selected in-water algorithm was applied to the merged data to generate maps of chlorophyll concentration, inherent optical properties at SeaWiFS wavelengths, and the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm. The merged products were validated against in situ observations. The uncertainties established on the basis of comparisons with in situ data were combined with an optical classification of the remote-sensing reflectance data using a fuzzy-logic approach, and were used to generate uncertainties (root mean square difference and bias) for each product at each pixel.

Distributions of phytoplankton carbohydrate, protein and lipid in the world oceans from satellite ocean colour.

Energy value of phytoplankton regulates the growth of higher trophic species, affecting the tropic balance and sustainability of marine food webs. Therefore, developing our capability to estimate and monitor, on a global scale, the concentrations of macromolecules that determine phytoplankton energy value, would be invaluable. Reported here are the first estimates of carbohydrate, protein, lipid, and overall energy value of phytoplankton in the world oceans, using ocean-colour data from satellites. The estimates are based on a novel bio-optical method that utilises satellite-derived bio-optical fingerprints of living phytoplankton combined with allometric relationships between phytoplankton cells and cellular macromolecular contents. The annually averaged phytoplankton energy value, per cubic metre of sub-surface ocean, varied from less than 0.1 kJ in subtropical gyres, to 0.5-1.0 kJ in parts of the equatorial, northern and southern latitudes, and rising to >10 kJ in certain coastal and optically complex waters. The annually averaged global stocks of carbohydrate, protein and lipid were 0.044, 0.17 and 0.108 gigatonnes, respectively, with monthly stocks highest in September and lowest in June, over 1997-2013. The fractional contributions of phytoplankton size classes e.g., picoplankton, nanoplankton and microplankton to surface concentrations and global stocks of macromolecules varied considerably across marine biomes classified as Longhurst provinces. Among these provinces, the highest annually averaged surface concentrations of carbohydrate, protein, and lipid were in North-East Atlantic Coastal Shelves, whereas, the lowest concentration of carbohydrate or lipid were in North Atlantic Tropical Gyral, and that of protein was in North Pacific Subtropical Gyre West. The regional accuracy of the estimates and their sensitivity to satellite inputs are quantified from the bio-optical model, which show promise for possible operational monitoring of phytoplankton energy value from satellite ocean colour. Adequate in situ measurements of macromolecules and improved retrievals of inherent optical properties from high-resolution satellite images, would be required to validate these estimates at local sites, and to further improve their accuracy in the world oceans.

Retrieval of phytoplankton size from bio-optical measurements: theory and applications.

The absorption coefficient of a substance distributed as discrete particles in suspension is less than that of the same material dissolved uniformly in a medium-a phenomenon commonly referred to as the flattening effect. The decrease in the absorption coefficient owing to flattening effect depends on the concentration of the absorbing pigment inside the particle, the specific absorption coefficient of the pigment within the particle, and on the diameter of the particle, if the particles are assumed to be spherical. For phytoplankton cells in the ocean, with diameters ranging from less than 1 µm to more than 100 µm, the flattening effect is variable, and sometimes pronounced, as has been well documented in the literature. Here, we demonstrate how the in vivo absorption coefficient of phytoplankton cells per unit concentration of its major pigment, chlorophyll a, can be used to determine the average cell size of the phytoplankton population. Sensitivity analyses are carried out to evaluate the errors in the estimated diameter owing to potential errors in the model assumptions. Cell sizes computed for field samples using the model are compared qualitatively with indirect estimates of size classes derived from high performance liquid chromatography data. Also, the results are compared quantitatively against measurements of cell size in laboratory cultures. The method developed is easy-to-apply as an operational tool for in situ observations, and has the potential for application to remote sensing of ocean colour data.

The coevolution of two phytoplankton species on a single resource: allelopathy as a pseudo-mixotrophy.

Without the top-down effects and the external/physical forcing, a stable coexistence of two phytoplankton species under a single resource is impossible - a result well known from the principle of competitive exclusion. Here I demonstrate by analysis of a mathematical model that such a stable coexistence in a homogeneous media without any external factor would be possible, at least theoretically, provided (i) one of the two species is toxin producing thereby has an allelopathic effect on the other, and (ii) the allelopathic effect exceeds a critical level. The threshold level of allelopathy required for the coexistence has been derived analytically in terms of the parameters associated with the resource competition and the nutrient recycling. That the extra mortality of a competitor driven by allelopathy of a toxic species gives a positive feed back to the algal growth process through the recycling is explained. And that this positive feed back plays a pivotal role in reducing competition pressures and helping species succession in the two-species model is demonstrated. Based on these specific coexistence results, I introduce and explain theoretically the allelopathic effect of a toxic species as a 'pseudo-mixotrophy'-a mechanism of 'if you cannot beat them or eat them, just kill them by chemical weapons'. The impact of this mechanism of species succession by pseudo-mixotrophy in the form of alleopathy is discussed in the context of current understanding on straight mixotrophy and resource-species relationship among phytoplankton species.

Effect of disease-selective predation on prey infected by contact and external sources.

We propose and analyze a simple mathematical model for susceptible prey (S)-infected prey (I)-predator (P) interaction, where the susceptible prey population (S) is infected directly from external sources as well as through contact with infected class (I) and the predator completely avoids consuming the infected prey. The model is analyzed to obtain different thresholds of the key parameters under which the system exhibits stability around the biologically feasible equilibria. Through numerical simulations we display the effects of external infection and the infection through contact on the system dynamics in the absence as well as in the presence of the predator. We compare the system dynamics when infection occurs only through contact, with that when it occurs through contact and external sources. Our analysis demonstrates that under a disease-selective predation, stability and oscillations of the system is determined by two key parameters: the external infection rate and the force of infection through contact. Due to the introduction of external infection, the predator and the prey population show limit-cycle oscillations over a range parametric values. We suggest that while predicting the dynamics of such an eco-epidemiological system, the modes of infection and the infection rates might be carefully investigated.

Do phytoplankton communities evolve through a self-regulatory abundance-diversity relationship?

A small group of phytoplankton species that produce toxic or allelopathic chemicals has a significant effect on plankton dynamics in marine ecosystems. The species of non-toxic phytoplankton, which are large in number, are affected by the toxin-allelopathy of those species. By analysis of the abundance data of marine phytoplankton collected from the North-West coast of the Bay of Bengal, an empirical relationship between the abundance of the potential toxin-producing species and the species diversity of the non-toxic phytoplankton is formulated. A change-point analysis demonstrates that the diversity of non-toxic phytoplankton increases with the increase of toxic species up to a certain level. However, for a massive increase of the toxin-producing species the diversity of phytoplankton at species level reduces gradually. Following the results, a deterministic relationship between the abundance of toxic phytoplankton and the diversity of non-toxic phytoplankton is developed. The abundance-diversity relationship develops a unimodal pathway through which the abundance of toxic species regulates the diversity of phytoplankton. These results contribute to the current understanding of the coexistence and biodiversity of phytoplankton, the top-down vs. bottom-up debate, and to that of abundance-diversity relationship in marine ecosystems.

Spatial interaction among nontoxic phytoplankton, toxic phytoplankton, and zooplankton: emergence in space and time.

In homogeneous environments, by overturning the possibility of competitive exclusion among phytoplankton species, and by regulating the dynamics of overall plankton population, toxin-producing phytoplankton (TPP) potentially help in maintaining plankton diversity-a result shown recently. Here, I explore the competitive effects of TPP on phytoplankton and zooplankton species undergoing spatial movements in the subsurface water. The spatial interactions among the species are represented in the form of reaction-diffusion equations. Suitable parametric conditions under which Turing patterns may or may not evolve are investigated. Spatiotemporal distributions of species biomass are simulated using the diffusivity assumptions realistic for natural planktonic systems. The study demonstrates that spatial movements of planktonic systems in the presence of TPP generate and maintain inhomogeneous biomass distribution of competing phytoplankton, as well as grazer zooplankton, thereby ensuring the persistence of multiple species in space and time. The overall results may potentially explain the sustainability of biodiversity and the spatiotemporal emergence of phytoplankton and zooplankton species under the influence of TPP combined with their physical movement in the subsurface water.

The stability of ecosystems: a brief overview of the paradox of enrichment.

In theory, enrichment of resource in a predator-prey model leads to destabilization of the system,thereby collapsing the trophic interaction,a phenomenon referred to as "the paradox of enrichment". After it was first pro posed by Rosenzweig (1971), a number of subsequent studies were carried out on this dilemma over many decades. In this article, we review these theoretical and experimental works and give a brief overview of the proposed solutions to the paradox. The mechanisms that have been discussed are modifications of simple predator -prey models in the presence of prey that is inedible, invulnerable, unpalatable and toxic. Another class of mechanisms includes an incorporation of a ratio-dependent functional form,inducible defence of prey and density-dependent mortality of the predator. Moreover, we find a third set of explanations based on complex population dynamics including chaos in space and time. We conclude that,although any one of the various mechanisms proposed so far might potentially prevent destabilization of the predator-prey dynamics following enrichment, in nature different mechanisms may combine to cause stability, even when a system is enriched. The exact mechanisms,which may differ among systems,need to be disentangled through extensive field studies and laboratory experiments coupled with realistic theoretical models.

Enrichment and ecosystem stability: effect of toxic food.

Enrichment in resource availability theoretically destabilizes predator-prey dynamics (the paradox of enrichment). However, a minor change in the resource stoichiometry may make a prey toxic for the predator, and the presence of toxic prey affects the dynamics significantly. Here, theoretically we explore how, at increased carrying capacity, a toxic prey affects the oscillation or destabilization of predator-prey dynamics, and how its presence influences the growth of the predator as well as that of a palatable prey. Mathematical analysis determines the bounds on the food toxicity that allow the coexistence of a predator along with a palatable and a toxic prey. The overall results demonstrate that toxic food counteracts oscillation (destabilization) arising from enrichment of resource availability. Moreover, our results show that, at increased resource availability, toxic food that acts as a source of extra mortality may increase the abundance of the predator as well as that of the palatable prey.

Enrichment and stability: a phenomenological coupling of energy value and carrying capacity.

Simple predator-prey models with a prey-dependent functional response predict that enrichment (increased carrying capacity) destabilizes community dynamics: this is the 'paradox of enrichment'. However, the energy value of prey is very important in this context. The intraspecific chemical composition of prey species determines its energy value as a food for the potential predator. Theoretical and experimental studies establish that variable chemical composition of prey affects the predator-prey dynamics. Recently, experimental and theoretical approaches have been made to incorporate explicitly the stoichiometric heterogeneity of simple predator-prey systems. Following the results of the previous experimental and theoretical advances, in this article we propose a simple phenomenological formulation of the variation of energy value at increased level of carrying capacity. Results of our study demonstrate that coupling the parameters representing the phenomenological energy value and carrying capacity in a realistic way, may avoid destabilization of community dynamics following enrichment. Additionally, under such coupling the producer-grazer system persists for only an intermediate zone of production--a result consistent with recent studies. We suggest that, while addressing the issue of enrichment in a general predator-prey model, the phenomenological relationship that we propose here might be applicable to avoid Rosenzweig's paradox.

Interaction among non-toxic phytoplankton, toxic phytoplankton and zooplankton: inferences from field observations.

We explore the mutual dependencies and interactions among different groups of species of the plankton population, based on an analysis of the long-term field observations carried out by our group in the North-West coast of the Bay of Bengal. The plankton community is structured into three groups of species, namely, non-toxic phytoplankton (NTP), toxic phytoplankton (TPP) and zooplankton. To find the pair-wise dependencies among the three groups of plankton, Pearson and partial correlation coefficients are calculated. To explore the simultaneous interaction among all the three groups, a time series analysis is performed. Following an Expectation Maximization (E-M) algorithm, those data points which are missing due to irregularities in sampling are estimated, and with the completed data set a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model is analyzed. The overall analysis demonstrates that toxin-producing phytoplankton play two distinct roles: the inhibition on consumption of toxic substances reduces the abundance of zooplankton, and the toxic materials released by TPP significantly compensate for the competitive disadvantages among phytoplankton species. Our study suggests that the presence of TPP might be a possible cause for the generation of a complex interaction among the large number of phytoplankton and zooplankton species that might be responsible for the prolonged coexistence of the plankton species in a fluctuating biomass.

Competing effects of toxin-producing phytoplankton on overall plankton populations in the bay of Bengal.

The coexistence of a large number of phytoplankton species on a seemingly limited variety of resources is a classical problem in ecology, known as 'the paradox of the plankton'. Strong fluctuations in species abundance due to the external factors or competitive interactions leading to oscillations, chaos and short-term equilibria have been cited so far to explain multi-species coexistence and biodiversity of phytoplankton. However, none of the explanations has been universally accepted. The qualitative view and statistical analysis of our field data establish two distinct roles of toxin-producing phytoplankton (TPP): toxin allelopathy weakens the interspecific competition among phytoplankton groups and the inhibition due to ingestion of toxic substances reduces the abundance of the grazer zooplankton. Structuring the overall plankton population as a combination of nontoxic phytoplankton (NTP), toxic phytoplankton, and zooplankton, here we offer a novel solution to the plankton paradox governed by the activity of TPP. We demonstrate our findings through qualitative analysis of our sample data followed by analysis of a mathematical model.

Role of nutrient bound of prey on the dynamics of predator-mediated competitive-coexistence.

The coexistence of competitive species with a shared predator is well established. The effect of 'food-value' on predator-prey dynamics has also received much attention. However, the study of a nutrient bound of prey, specifically on predator-mediated competitive-coexistence has not received much attention. Here we study the effects of the caloric content or a nutrient bound of prey on the dynamics of competitive-coexistence with the shared predator in a specific model. We propose and analyze a mathematical model for exploitative competition of two prey species with a shared predator. The change of dynamic stability due to the variation of a nutrient bound of each prey on predator-mediated dynamics is studied through extensive numerical experiments. Our analytical and numerical results demonstrate that variation in a nutrient bound promotes the switching of dynamics and may be treated as a driving force for the dynamics of competitive-coexistence with the shared predator.