ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To assess the fit of the parametric mortality laws proposed by Heligman and Pollard to the mortality experience of Catalonia (Spain) with the goal of describing and comparing mortality by age and gender, in the time periods 1985-86 and 1990-91. DATA AND METHODS: The data were obtained from the official mortality Registry and population Census for the respective years. Observed conditional probabilities of dying by age and gender were adjusted using the parametric mortality laws formulated by Heligman and Pollard. These laws provide information about mortality characteristics in childhood, in youth and in adults. Goodness of fit of the models was assessed using chi-square, sign, and Steven's tests. Significant outliners were also determined and considered in the analysis. RESULTS: In Catalonia from 1985-86 to 1990-91 the probability of dying increased among people aged 16 to 40 years, this being higher in males as compared to females. For people older than 40 years of age the probability of dying in males did not change, but decreased for females. In this time period, the probability of dying slightly decreased during childhood. The life expectancy at birth for males decreased from 74.12 years in 1985-86 to 73.85 years in 1990-91. In contrast, the life expectancy at birth for females increased from 80.08 years in 1985-86 to 80.88 in 1990-91, thus widening mortality differences by gender. CONCLUSIONS: Heligman and Pollard laws of mortality are useful in describing mortality by age and gender, as well as in analyzing the evolution of mortality over time. The unfavorable evolution of mortality among young men living in Catalonia has contributed to reversing the trend of life expectancy at birth in the twentieth century.
