Factors Defining the Development of Severe Illness in Patients with COVID-19: A Retrospective Study.

OBJECTIVE: Early triage of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is pivotal in managing the disease. However, studies on the clinical risk score system of the risk factors for the development of severe disease are limited. Hence, we conducted a clinical risk score system for severe illness, which might optimize appropriate treatment strategies. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, single-center study at the JinYinTan Hospital from January 24, 2020 to March 31, 2020. We evaluated the demographic, clinical, and laboratory data and performed a 10-fold cross-validation to split the data into a training set and validation set. We then screened the prognostic factors for severe illness using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and logistic regression, and finally conducted a risk score to estimate the probability of severe illness in the training set. Data from the validation set were used to validate the score. RESULTS: A total of 295 patients were included. From 49 potential risk factors, 3 variables were measured as the risk score: neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio ( OR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.15-1.39), albumin ( OR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.70-0.83), and chest computed tomography abnormalities ( OR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.41-2.86) and the AUC of the validation cohort was 0.822 (95% CI, 0.7667-0.8776). CONCLUSION: This report may help define the potential of developing severe illness in patients with COVID-19 at an early stage, which might be related to the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, albumin, and chest computed tomography abnormalities.

Clinical trial with traditional Chinese medicine intervention ''tonifying the kidney to promote liver regeneration and repair by affecting stem cells and their microenvironment'' for chronic hepatitis B-associated liver failure.

AIM: To study the clinical efficacy of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) intervention "tonifying the kidney to promote liver regeneration and repair by affecting stem cells and their microenvironment" ("TTK") for treating liver failure due to chronic hepatitis B. METHODS: We designed the study as a randomized controlled clinical trial. Registration number of Chinese Clinical Trial Registry is ChiCTR-TRC-12002961. A total of 144 patients with liver failure due to infection with chronic hepatitis B virus were enrolled in this randomized controlled clinical study. Participants were randomly assigned to the following three groups: (1) a modern medicine control group (MMC group, 36 patients); (2) a "tonifying qi and detoxification" ("TQD") group (72 patients); and (3) a "tonifying the kidney to promote liver regeneration and repair by affecting stem cells and their microenvironment" ("TTK") group (36 patients). Patients in the MMC group received general internal medicine treatment; patients in the "TQD" group were given a TCM formula "tonifying qi and detoxification" and general internal medicine treatment; patients in the "TTK" group were given a TCM formula of "TTK" and general internal medicine treatment. All participants were treated for 8 wk and then followed at 48 wk following their final treatment. The primary efficacy end point was the patient fatality rate in each group. Measurements of various virological and biochemical indicators served as secondary endpoints. The one-way analysis of variance and the t-test were used to compare patient outcomes in the different treatment groups. RESULTS: At the 48-wk post-treatment time point, the patient fatality rates in the MMC, "TQD", and "TTK" groups were 51.61%, 35.38%, and 16.67%, respectively, and the differences between groups were statistically significant (P < 0.05). However, there were no significant differences in the levels of hepatitis B virus DNA or prothrombin activity among the three groups (P > 0.05). Patients in the "TTK" group had significantly higher levels of serum total bilirubin compared to MMC subjects (339.40 µmol/L ± 270.09 µmol/L vs 176.13 µmol/L ± 185.70 µmol/L, P = 0.014). Serum albumin levels were significantly increased in both the "TQD" group and "TTK" group as compared with the MMC group (31.30 g/L ± 4.77 g/L, 30.72 g/L ± 2.89 g/L vs 28.57 g/L ± 4.56 g/L, P < 0.05). There were no significant differences in levels of alanine transaminase among the three groups (P > 0.05). Safety data showed that there was one case of stomachache in the "TQD" group and one case of gastrointestinal side effect in the "TTK" group. CONCLUSION: Treatment with "TTK" improved the survival rates of patients with liver failure due to chronic hepatitis B. Additionally, liver tissue was regenerated and liver function was restored.