A Predictive Model Has Identified Tick-Borne Encephalitis High-Risk Areas in Regions Where No Cases Were Reported Previously, Poland, 1999-2012.

During 1999­2012, 77% of the cases of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) were recorded in two out of 16 Polish provinces. However, historical data, mostly from national serosurveys, suggest that the disease could be undetected in many areas. The aim of this study was to identify which routinely-measured meteorological, environmental, and socio-economic factors are associated to TBE human risk across Poland, with a particular focus on areas reporting few cases, but where serosurveys suggest higher incidence. We fitted a zero-inflated Poisson model using data on TBE incidence recorded in 108 NUTS-5 administrative units in high-risk areas over the period 1999­2012. Subsequently we applied the best fitting model to all Polish municipalities. Keeping the remaining variables constant, the predicted rate increased with the increase of air temperature over the previous 10­20 days, precipitation over the previous 20­30 days, in forestation, forest edge density, forest road density, and unemployment. The predicted rate decreased with increasing distance from forests. The map of predicted rates was consistent with the established risk areas. It predicted, however, high rates in provinces considered TBE-free. We recommend raising awareness among physicians working in the predicted high-risk areas and considering routine use of household animal surveys for risk mapping.

Cerebrovascular diseases in Poland-inconsistent seasonal patterns of hospitalisation and mortality.

Background: A seasonal variation in the incidence of cerebrovascular diseases still remains inconsistently evidenced. Herein, we analyse the monthly patterns of two health phenomena: hospital admissions and deaths due to these diseases. Methods: We identified 69 511 cases of hospital admissions and 14 956 deaths due to cerebrovascular diseases (ICD10: I60-I69 and G45) among the inhabitants of five Polish voivodeship capitals in 2004-13. The method of time series analysis (exponential smoothing with linear trend and monthly additive seasonality) was applied to calculate the monthly specific seasonal indices. The monthly variation in an in-hospital fatality and nonhospital deaths were also analysed. Results: A summer season reduction in number of cases was observed for hospital admissions and deaths. Interestingly, the winter season effect is much more complex, mainly due to the contribution of December, when a high mortality is accompanied by a substantial decrease in the hospitalisation level. This unique discrepancy was observed for all the studied cities. Moreover, this month is characterised by a notably high in-hospital fatality. However, neither the number of non-hospital deaths nor the average length of hospital stay or the kind of hospitalised diseases evidenced that cerebrovascular problems were more serious in December than in any other month. Conclusion: The obtained results confirmed a seasonal variation in cerebrovascular diseases among the inhabitants of Polish cities. Habitual and administrative limitations in hospital activities observed every December do not seem indifferent from the patient health's perspective since they may lead to a low hospitalisation level and a high in-hospital fatality.