ABSTRACT
Acid suppressants are widely-used classes of medications linked to increased risks of aerodigestive infections. Prior studies of these medications as potentially reversible risk factors for COVID-19 have been conflicting. We aimed to determine the impact of chronic acid suppression use on COVID-19 infection risk while simultaneously evaluating the influence of social determinants of health to validate known and discover novel risk factors. We assessed the association of chronic acid suppression with incident COVID-19 in a 1:1 case-control study of 900 patients tested across three academic medical centers in California, USA. Medical comorbidities and history of chronic acid suppression use were manually extracted from health records by physicians following a pre-specified protocol. Socio-behavioral factors by geomapping publicly-available data to patient zip codes were incorporated. We identified no evidence to support an association between chronic acid suppression and COVID-19 (adjusted odds ratio 1.04, 95% CI 0.92-1.17, P = 0.515). However, several medical and social features were positive (Latinx ethnicity, BMI ≥ 30, dementia, public transportation use, month of the pandemic) and negative (female sex, concurrent solid tumor, alcohol use disorder) predictors of new infection. These findings demonstrate the value of integrating publicly-available databases with medical data to identify critical features of communicable diseases.
Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/therapy , Gastroesophageal Reflux/complications , Social Determinants of Health , Aged , Behavior , COVID-19/psychology , California , Case-Control Studies , Computational Biology/methods , Databases, Factual , Female , Gastroenterology , Gastroesophageal Reflux/drug therapy , Geography , Histamine H2 Antagonists/pharmacology , Humans , Incidence , Male , Middle Aged , Odds Ratio , Proton Pump Inhibitors/pharmacology , Risk Factors , Social ClassABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: Electronic health records (EHR) are receiving growing attention from regulators, biopharmaceuticals and payors as a potential source of real-world evidence. However, their suitability for the study of diseases with complex activity measures is unclear. We sought to evaluate the use of EHR data for estimating treatment effectiveness in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), using tofacitinib as a use case. METHODS: Records from the University of California, San Francisco (6/2012 to 4/2019) were queried to identify tofacitinib-treated IBD patients. Disease activity variables at baseline and follow-up were manually abstracted according to a preregistered protocol. The proportion of patients meeting the endpoints of recent randomised trials in ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD) was assessed. RESULTS: 86 patients initiated tofacitinib. Baseline characteristics of the real-world and trial cohorts were similar, except for universal failure of tumour necrosis factor inhibitors in the former. 54% (UC) and 62% (CD) of patients had complete capture of disease activity at baseline (month -6 to 0), while only 32% (UC) and 69% (CD) of patients had complete follow-up data (month 2 to 8). Using data imputation, we estimated the proportion achieving the trial primary endpoints as being similar to the published estimates for both UC (16%, p value=0.5) and CD (38%, p-value=0.8). DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: This pilot study reproduced trial-based estimates of tofacitinib efficacy despite its use in a different cohort but revealed substantial missingness in routinely collected data. Future work is needed to strengthen EHR data and enable real-world evidence in complex diseases like IBD.
