Left Main Coronary Artery Calcium and Diabetes Confer Very-High-Risk Equivalence in Coronary Artery Calcium >1,000.

BACKGROUND: Although a coronary artery calcium (CAC) of ≥1,000 is a subclinical atherosclerosis threshold to consider combination lipid-lowering therapy, differentiating very high from high atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk in this patient population is not well-defined. OBJECTIVES: Among persons with a CAC of ≥1,000, the authors sought to identify risk factors equating with very high-risk ASCVD mortality rates. METHODS: The authors studied 2,246 asymptomatic patients with a CAC of ≥1,000 from the CAC Consortium without a prior ASCVD event. Cox proportional hazards regression modelling was performed for ASCVD mortality during a median follow-up of 11.3 years. Crude ASCVD mortality rates were compared with those reported for secondary prevention trial patients classified as very high risk, defined by ≥2 major ASCVD events or 1 major event and ≥2 high-risk conditions (1.4 per 100 person-years). RESULTS: The mean age was 66.6 years, 14% were female, and 10% were non-White. The median CAC score was 1,592 and 6% had severe left main (LM) CAC (vessel-specific CAC ≥300). Diabetes (HR: 2.04 [95% CI: 1.47-2.83]) and severe LM CAC (HR: 2.32 [95% CI: 1.51-3.55]) were associated with ASCVD mortality. The ASCVD mortality per 100 person-years for all patients was 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7-0.9), although higher rates were observed for diabetes (1.4 [95% CI: 0.8-1.9]), severe LM CAC (1.3 [95% CI: 0.6-2.0]), and both diabetes and severe LM CAC (7.1 [95% CI: 3.4-10.8]). CONCLUSIONS: Among asymptomatic patients with a CAC of ≥1,000 without a prior index event, diabetes, and severe LM CAC define very high risk ASCVD, identifying individuals who may benefit from more intensive prevention therapies across several domains, including low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol lowering.

Thoracic Aortic Calcium Density and Area in Long-Term Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Among Men Versus Women.

BACKGROUND: The development of thoracic aortic calcium (TAC) temporally precedes coronary artery calcium more often in women versus men. Whether TAC density and area confer sex-specific differences in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk is unknown. METHODS: We studied 5317 primary prevention patients who underwent coronary artery calcium scoring on noncontrast cardiac gated computed tomography with TAC >0. The Agatston TAC score (Agatston units), density (Hounsfield units), and area (mm2) were compared between men and women. Cox proportional hazards regression calculated adjusted hazard ratios for TAC density-area groups with ASCVD mortality, adjusting for traditional risk factors, coronary artery calcium, and TAC. Multinomial logistic regression calculated adjusted odds ratios for the association between traditional risk factors and TAC density-area groups. RESULTS: The mean age was 60.7 years, 38% were women, and 163 ASCVD deaths occurred over a median of 11.7-year follow-up. Women had higher median TAC scores (97 versus 84 Agatston units; P=0.004), density (223 versus 210 Hounsfield units; P<0.001), and area (37 versus 32 mm2; P=0.006) compared with men. There was a stepwise higher incidence of ASCVD deaths across increasing TAC density-area groups in men though women with low TAC density relative to TAC area (3.6 per 1000 person-years) had survival probability commensurate with the high-density-high-area group (4.8 per 1000 person-years). Compared with low TAC density-area, low TAC density/high TAC area conferred a 3.75-fold higher risk of ASCVD mortality in women (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.75 [95% CI, 1.13-12.44]) but not in men (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.16 [95% CI, 0.48-2.84]). Risk factors most strongly associated with low TAC density/high TAC area differed in women (diabetes: adjusted odds ratio, 2.61 [95% CI, 1.34-5.07]) versus men (hypertension: adjusted odds ratio, 1.45 [95% CI, 1.11-1.90]). CONCLUSIONS: TAC density-area phenotypes do not consistently associate with ASCVD mortality though low TAC density relative to area may be a marker of increased ASCVD risk in women.

Cardiovascular risk stratification among individuals with obesity: The Coronary Artery Calcium Consortium.

OBJECTIVE: The effectiveness of coronary artery calcification (CAC) for risk stratification in obesity, in which imaging is often limited because of a reduced signal to noise ratio, has not been well studied. METHODS: Data from 9334 participants (mean age: 53.3 ± 9.7 years; 67.9% men) with BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 from the CAC Consortium, a retrospectively assembled cohort of individuals with no prior cardiovascular diseases (CVD), were used. The predictive value of CAC for all-cause and cause-specific mortality was evaluated using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards and competing-risks regression. RESULTS: Mean BMI was 34.5 (SD 4.4) kg/m2 (22.7% Class II and 10.8% Class III obesity), and 5461 (58.5%) had CAC. Compared with CAC = 0, those with CAC = 1-99, 100-299, and ≥300 Agatston units had higher rates (per 1000 person-years) of all-cause (1.97 vs. 3.5 vs. 5.2 vs. 11.3), CVD (0.4 vs. 1.1 vs. 1.5 vs. 4.2), and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality (0.2 vs. 0.6 vs. 0.6 vs. 2.5), respectively, after mean follow-up of 10.8 ± 3.0 years. After adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, CAC ≥ 300 was associated with significantly higher risk of all-cause (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.05; 95% CI: 1.49-2.82), CVD (subdistribution HR: 3.48; 95% CI: 1.81-6.70), and CHD mortality (subdistribution HR: 5.44; 95% CI: 2.02-14.66), compared with CAC = 0. When restricting the sample to individuals with BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2 , CAC ≥ 300 remained significantly associated with the highest risk. CONCLUSIONS: Among individuals with obesity, including moderate-severe obesity, CAC strongly predicts all-cause, CVD, and CHD mortality and may serve as an effective cardiovascular risk stratification tool to prioritize the allocation of therapies for weight management.

Coronary Artery Calcium Dispersion and Cause-Specific Mortality.

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) measures subclinical atherosclerosis and improves risk stratification. CAC characteristics-including vessel(s) involved, number of vessels, volume, and density-have been shown to differentially impact risk. We assessed how dispersion-either the number of calcified vessels or CAC phenotype (diffuse, normal, and concentrated)-impacted cause-specific mortality. The CAC Consortium is a retrospective cohort of 66,636 participants without coronary heart disease (CHD) who underwent CAC scoring. This study included patients with CAC >0 (n = 28,147). CAC area, CAC density, and CAC phenotypes (derived from the index of diffusion = 1 - [CAC in most concentrated vessel/total Agatston score]) were calculated. The associations between CAC characteristics and cause-specific mortality were assessed. The participant details included (n = 28,147): mean age 58.3 years, 25% female, 89.6% White, and 66% had 2+ calcified vessels. Diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia were predictors of multivessel involvement (p <0.001). After controlling for the overall CAC score, those with 4-vessel CAC involvement had more CAC area and less dense calcifications than those with 1-vessel. There was a graded increase in all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD)- and CHD-specific mortality as the number of calcified vessels increased. Among those with ≥2 vessels involved (n = 18,516), a diffuse phenotype was associated with a higher CVD-specific mortality and had a trend toward higher all-cause and CHD-specific mortality than a concentrated CAC phenotype. Diffuse CAC involvement was characterized by less dense calcification, more CAC area, multiple coronary vessel involvement, and presence of certain traditional risk factors. There is a graded increase in all-cause and CVD- and CHD-specific mortality with increasing CAC dispersion.

Association between hypercholesterolemia and mortality risk among patients referred for cardiac imaging test: Evidence of a "cholesterol paradox?"

AIM: Some observational studies have observed a lower, rather than higher, mortality rate in association with hypercholesterolemia during follow-up of patients after cardiac stress testing. We aim to assess the relationship of hypercholesterolemia and other CAD risk factors to mortality across a wide spectrum of patients referred for various cardiac tests. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified four cardiac cohorts: 64,357 patients undergoing coronary artery calcium (CAC) scanning, 10,814 patients undergoing coronary CT angiography (CCTA), 31,411 patients without known CAD undergoing stress/rest single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI), and 5051 patients with known CAD undergoing stress/rest SPECT-MPI. Each cohort was followed for all-cause mortality using risk-adjusted Cox models. We pooled the hazard ratios between cohorts with a random effects model. Baseline risk varied markedly among cohorts, from an annualized mortality rate of 0.31%/year in CAC patients to 3.63%/year among SPECT-MPI patients with known CAD. Hypertension, diabetes, and smoking were each associated with increased mortality in each patient cohort (pooled hazard ratio[95% CI]: 1.38[1.33-1.44], 1.88[1.76-2.00], and 1.67[1.48-1.86], respectively). By contrast, hypercholesterolemia was associated with decreased rather than increased mortality (pooled hazard ratio[95% CI]: 0.71[0.58-0.84]). Analysis of serum lipids among 7744 patients undergoing CAC or CCTA scanning revealed an inverse relationship between LDL cholesterol and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Among a broad spectrum of patients referred for a variety of cardiac tests and ranging from low to high clinical risk, hypercholesterolemia was not associated with increased mortality risk. Our findings suggest that hypercholesterolemia may be sensitive to confounding by other clinical factors and post-test treatment changes in patient populations.

Discordance Between Coronary Artery Calcium Area and Density Predicts Long-Term Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is commonly quantified as the product of 2 generally correlated measures: plaque area and calcium density. OBJECTIVES: The authors sought to determine whether discordance between calcium area and density has long-term prognostic importance in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. METHODS: The authors studied 10,373 primary prevention participants from the CAC Consortium with CAC >0. Based on their median values, calcium area and mean calcium density were divided into 4 mutually exclusive concordant/discordant groups. Cox proportional hazards regression assessed the association of calcium area/density groups with ASCVD mortality over a median of 11.7 years, adjusting for traditional risk factors and the Agatston CAC score. RESULTS: The mean age was 56.7 years, and 24% were female. The prevalence of plaque discordance was 19% (9% low calcium area/high calcium density, 10% high calcium area/low calcium density). Female sex (odds ratio [OR]: 1.48 [95% CI: 1.27-1.74]) and body mass index (OR: 0.81 [95% CI: 0.76-0.87], per 5 kg/m2 higher) were significantly associated with high calcium density discordance, whereas diabetes (OR: 2.23 [95% CI: 1.85-3.19]) was most strongly associated with discordantly low calcium density. Compared to those with low calcium area/low calcium density, individuals with low calcium area/high calcium density had a 71% lower risk of ASCVD death (HR: 0.29 [95% CI: 0.09-0.95]). CONCLUSIONS: For a given CAC score, high calcium density relative to plaque area confers lower long-term ASCVD risk, likely serving as an imaging marker of biological resilience for lesion vulnerability. Additional research is needed to define a robust definition of calcium area/density discordance for routine clinical risk prediction.

Coronary Artery Calcium for Risk Stratification of Sudden Cardiac Death: The Coronary Artery Calcium Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a marker of plaque burden. Whether CAC improves risk stratification for incident sudden cardiac death (SCD) beyond atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk factors is unknown. OBJECTIVES: SCD is a common initial manifestation of coronary heart disease (CHD); however, SCD risk prediction remains elusive. METHODS: The authors studied 66,636 primary prevention patients from the CAC Consortium. Multivariable competing risks regression and C-statistics were used to assess the association between CAC and SCD, adjusting for demographics and traditional risk factors. RESULTS: The mean age was 54.4 years, 33% were women, 11% were of non-White ethnicity, and 55% had CAC >0. A total of 211 SCD events (0.3%) were observed during a median follow-up of 10.6 years, 91% occurring among those with baseline CAC >0. Compared with CAC = 0, there was a stepwise higher risk (P trend < 0.001) in SCD for CAC 100 to 399 (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR]: 2.8; 95% CI: 1.6-5.0), CAC 400 to 999 (SHR: 4.0; 95% CI: 2.2-7.3), and CAC >1,000 (SHR: 4.9; 95% CI: 2.6-9.9). CAC provided incremental improvements in the C-statistic for the prediction of SCD among individuals with a 10-year risk <7.5% (ΔC-statistic = +0.046; P = 0.02) and 7.5% to 20% (ΔC-statistic = +0.069; P = 0.003), which were larger when compared with persons with a 10-year risk >20% (ΔC-statistic = +0.01; P = 0.54). CONCLUSIONS: Higher CAC burden strongly associates with incident SCD beyond traditional risk factors, particularly among primary prevention patients with low-intermediate risk. SCD risk stratification can be useful in the early stages of CHD through the measurement of CAC, identifying patients most likely to benefit from further downstream testing.

Mean Versus Peak Coronary Calcium Density on Non-Contrast CT: Calcium Scoring and ASCVD Risk Prediction.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to assess the relationship between mean vs peak calcified plaque density and their impact on calculating coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores and to compare the corresponding differential prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality. BACKGROUND: The Agatston CAC score is quantified per lesion as the product of plaque area and a 4-level categorical peak calcium density factor. However, mean calcium density may more accurately measure the heterogenous mixture of lipid-rich, fibrous, and calcified plaque reflective of ASCVD risk. METHODS: We included 10,373 individuals from the CAC Consortium who had CAC >0 and per-vessel measurements of peak calcium density factor and mean calcium density. Area under the curve and continuous net reclassification improvement analyses were performed for CHD and ASCVD mortality to compare the predictive abilities of mean calcium density vs peak calcium density factor when calculating the Agatston CAC score. RESULTS: Participants were on average 53.4 years of age, 24.4% were women, and the median CAC score was 68 Agatston units. The average values for mean calcium density and peak calcium density factor were 210 ± 50 HU and 3.1 ± 0.5, respectively. Individuals younger than 50 years of age and/or those with a total plaque area <100 mm2 had the largest differences between the peak and mean density measures. Among persons with CAC 1-99, the use of mean calcium density resulted in a larger improvement in ASCVD mortality net reclassification improvement (NRI) (NRI = 0.49; P < 0.001 vs. NRI = 0.18; P = 0.08) and CHD mortality discrimination (Δ area under the curve (AUC) = +0.169 vs +0.036; P < 0.001) compared with peak calcium density factor. Neither peak nor mean calcium density improved mortality prediction at CAC scores >100. CONCLUSION: Mean and peak calcium density may differentially describe plaque composition early in the atherosclerotic process. Mean calcium density performs better than peak calcium density factor when combined with plaque area for ASCVD mortality prediction among persons with Agatston CAC 1-99.

Coronary artery calcium is associated with long-term mortality from lung cancer: Results from the Coronary Artery Calcium Consortium.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores have been shown to be associated with CVD and cancer mortality. The use of CAC scores for overall and lung cancer mortality risk prediction for patients in the Coronary Artery Calcium Consortium was analyzed. METHODS: We included 55,943 patients aged 44-84 years without known heart disease from the CAC Consortium. There were 1,088 cancer deaths, among which 231 were lung cancer, identified by death certificates with a mean follow-up of 12.2 ± 3.9 years. Fine-and-Gray competing-risk regression was used for overall and lung cancer-specific mortality, accounting for the competing risk of CVD death and after adjustment for CVD risk factors. Subdistribution hazard ratios (SHR) were reported. RESULTS: The mean age of all patients was 57.1 ± 8.6 years, 34.9% were women, and 89.6% were white. Overall, CAC was strongly associated with cancer mortality. Lung cancer mortality increased with increasing CAC scores, with rates per 1000-person years of 0.2 (95% CI: 0.1-0.3) for CAC = 0 and 0.8 (95% CI: 0.6-1.0) for CAC ≥400. Compared with CAC = 0, hazards were increased for those with CAC ≥400 for lung cancer mortality [SHR: 1.7 (95% CI: 1.2-2.6)], which was driven by women [SHR: 2.3 (95% CI: 1.1-4.8)], but not significantly increased for men. Risks were higher in those with positive smoking history [SHR: 2.2 (95% CI: 1.2-4.2)], with associations driven by women [SHR: 4.0 (95% CI: 1.4-11.5)]. CONCLUSIONS: CAC scores were associated with increased risks for lung cancer mortality, with strongest associations for current and former smokers, especially in women. Used in conjunction with other clinical variables, our data pinpoint a potential synergistic use of CAC scanning beyond CVD risk assessment for identification of high-risk lung cancer screening candidates.

Modeling the Recommended Age for Initiating Coronary Artery Calcium Testing Among At-Risk Young Adults.

BACKGROUND: There are currently no recommendations guiding when best to perform coronary artery calcium (CAC) scanning among young adults to identify those susceptible for developing premature atherosclerosis. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to determine the ideal age at which a first CAC scan has the highest utility according to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk factor profile. METHODS: We included 22,346 CAC Consortium participants aged 30-50 years who underwent noncontrast computed tomography. Sex-specific equations were derived from multivariable logistic modeling to estimate the expected probability of CAC >0 according to age and the presence of ASCVD risk factors. RESULTS: Participants were on average 43.5 years of age, 25% were women, and 34% had CAC >0, in whom the median CAC score was 20. Compared with individuals without risk factors, those with diabetes developed CAC 6.4 years earlier on average, whereas smoking, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and a family history of coronary heart disease were individually associated with developing CAC 3.3-4.3 years earlier. Using a testing yield of 25% for detecting CAC >0, the optimal age for a potential first scan would be at 36.8 years (95% CI: 35.5-38.4 years) in men and 50.3 years (95% CI: 48.7-52.1 years) in women with diabetes, and 42.3 years (95% CI: 41.0-43.9 years) in men and 57.6 years (95% CI: 56.0-59.5 years) in women without risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Our derived risk equations among health-seeking young adults enriched in ASCVD risk factors inform the expected prevalence of CAC >0 and can be used to determine an appropriate age to initiate clinical CAC testing to identify individuals most susceptible for early/premature atherosclerosis.

Implication of thoracic aortic calcification over coronary calcium score regarding the 2018 ACC/AHA Multisociety cholesterol guideline: results from the CAC Consortium.

OBJECTIVE: TAC is associated with an increased atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, but it is unclear how to interpret thoracic aortic calcification (TAC) findings in conjunction with ASCVD risk and coronary artery calcium (CAC) score according to 2018 ACC/AHA Multisociety cholesterol guidelines. We evaluate the incremental value of thoracic aortic calcification TAC over CAC for predicting and reclassifying ASCVD mortality risk. METHOD: The study included 30,630 asymptomatic individuals (mean age: 55 ± 8 years, male: 64%) from the CAC Consortium. TAC was categorized as TAC 0, 1-300, and >300. Patients were categorized as low (<5%), borderline (5-7.5%), intermediate (7.5-20%), or high (≥20%) 10-year ASCVD risk according to the Pooled Cohorts Equation. In the intermediate risk group, the utility of TAC beyond CAC for statin eligibility was assessed according to the guideline. CAC was categorized as CAC=0 (no statin), CAC 1-100 (favors statin), or CAC>100 (initiate stain). RESULTS: During the median 11.2 years (IQR 9.2-12.4) follow-up, 345 (1.1%) CVD deaths occurred. TAC>300 was associated with increased CVD mortality after adjusting for ASCVD risk and CAC (HR:4.72, 95% CI: 3.39-6.57, p<0.001). In borderline and intermediate risk groups, TAC improved discrimination when added to a model included ASCVD risk and CAC (C-statistic: 0.77 vs. 0.68 in borderline group; 0.67 vs. 0.63 in intermediate group, both p < 0.05). The addition of TAC over CAC improved risk reclassification in borderline, intermediate and high-risk groups (categorical net reclassification index: 0.40, 0.29, and 0.49, respectively, all p < 0.001). Of intermediate risk participants for whom consideration of CAC was recommended based on the guideline, TAC >300 was associated with an increased CVD mortality risk across each statin eligibility group (all p < 0.001, compared to TAC 0). CONCLUSION: TAC was independently associated with CVD death. Among individuals with borderline or intermediate ASCVD risk, a TAC threshold of 300 may provide added prognostic and reclassification value beyond the current guideline-based approach.

Electron Beam CT: A Historical Review.

OBJECTIVE. At its advent, CT was too slow to image the heart. Temporal resolution improved with electron beam CT (EBCT); subsequently, the heart could be imaged, eventually leading to the discovery of prognostic information obtained from the coronary calcium score. In the early 2000s, EBCT was replaced by MDCT. In this review, we discuss the rise and fall of EBCT and explore its legacy in cardiac imaging. CONCLUSION. Although MDCT rendered EBCT obsolete, EBCT leaves a legacy in cardiac imaging regarding both diagnosis and prognosis. The creators of MDCT emulated the strengths of EBCT and learned from its weaknesses. Moreover, EBCT showed that imaging surrogates can predict outcomes, and the origins of substrate-guided treatment can be traced to EBCT.

Prognostic significance of aortic valve calcium in relation to coronary artery calcification for long-term, cause-specific mortality: results from the CAC Consortium.

AIMS: Aortic valve calcification (AVC) has been shown to be associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk; however, whether this is independent of traditional risk factors and coronary artery calcification (CAC) remains unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: From the multicentre CAC Consortium database, 10 007 patients (mean 55.8±11.7 years, 64% male) with concomitant CAC and AVC scoring were included in the current analysis. AVC score was quantified using the Agatston score method and categorized as 0, 1-99, and ≥100. The endpoints were all-cause, CVD, and coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths. AVC (AVC>0) was observed in 1397 (14%) patients. During a median 7.8 (interquartile range: 4.7-10.6) years of study follow-up, 511 (5.1%) deaths occurred; 179 (35%) were CVD deaths, and 101 (19.8%) were CHD deaths. A significant interaction between CAC and AVC for mortality was observed (P<0.001). The incidence of mortality events increased with higher AVC; however, AVC ≥100 was not independently associated with all-cause, CVD, and CHD deaths after adjusting for CVD risk factors and CAC (P=0.192, 0.063, and 0.206, respectively). When further stratified by CAC<100 or ≥100, AVC ≥100 was an independent predictor of all-cause and CVD deaths only in patients with CAC <100, after adjusting for CVD risk factors and CAC [hazard ratio (HR): 1.93, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14-3.27; P=0.013 and HR: 2.71, 95% CI: 1.15-6.34; P=0.022, respectively]. CONCLUSION: Although the overall prognostic significance of AVC was attenuated after accounting for CAC, high AVC was independently associated with all-cause and CVD deaths in patients with low coronary atherosclerosis burden.

Comparing Risk Scores in the Prediction of Coronary and Cardiovascular Deaths: Coronary Artery Calcium Consortium.

OBJECTIVES: This study compared risk discrimination for the prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths for the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE), the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) Risk Score (with and without coronary artery calcium [CAC]), and of simple addition of CAC to the PCE. BACKGROUND: The PCE predict 10-year risk of atherosclerotic CVD events, and the MESA Risk Score predicts risk of CHD. Their comparative performance for the prediction of fatal events is poorly understood. METHODS: We evaluated 53,487 patients ages 45 to 79 years from the CAC Consortium, a retrospective cohort study of asymptomatic individuals referred for clinical CAC scoring. Risk discrimination was measured using C-statistics. RESULTS: Mean age was 57 years, 35% were women, and 39% had CAC of 0. There were 421 CHD and 775 CVD deaths over a mean 12-year follow-up. In the overall study population, discrimination with the MESA Risk Score with CAC and the PCE was almost identical for both outcomes (C-statistics: 0.80 and 0.79 for CHD death, 0.77 and 0.78 for CVD death, respectively). Addition of CAC to the PCE improved risk discrimination, yielding the largest C-statistics. The MESA Risk Score with CAC and the PCE plus CAC showed the best discrimination among the 45% of patients with 5% to 20% estimated risk. Secondary analyses by estimated CVD risk strata showed modestly improved risk discrimination with CAC also among low- and high-estimated risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the current guideline recommendation to use, among available risk scores, the PCE for initial risk assessment and to use CAC for further risk assessment in a broad borderline and intermediate risk group. Also, in select individuals at low or high estimated risk, CAC modestly improved discrimination. Studies in unselected populations will lead to further understanding of the potential value of tools combining risk scores and CAC for optimal risk assessment.

Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality Risk by Coronary Artery Calcium Scores and Percentiles Among Older Adult Males and Females.

BACKGROUND: Coronary calcium is a marker of coronary atherosclerosis and established predictor of cardiovascular risk in general populations; however, there are limited studies examining its prognostic value among older adults (≥75 years) and even less regarding its utility in older males compared with females. Accordingly, we sought to examine the prognostic significance of both absolute and percentile coronary calcium scores among older adults. METHODS: The multicenter Coronary Artery Calcium Consortium consists of 66,636 asymptomatic patients without cardiovascular disease. Participants ages ≥75 were included in this study and stratified by sex. Multivariable Cox regression models were constructed to assess cardiovascular and all-cause mortality risk by Agatston coronary calcium scores and percentiles. RESULTS: Among 2,474 asymptomatic patients (mean age 79 years, 10.4-year follow-up), prevalence of coronary artery calcium was 92%. For both sexes, but in females more so than males, higher coronary calcium score and percentiles were associated with increased cardiovascular and all-cause mortality risk. Those at the lowest coronary calcium categories (0-9 and <25 percentile) had significantly lower risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality relative to the rest of the population. Multivariable analyses of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and coronary artery calcium variables revealed that age and coronary calcium were the strongest independent predictors for adverse outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Both coronary artery calcium scores and percentiles are strongly predictive of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality among older adults, with greater risk-stratification among females than males. Both low coronary artery calcium scores 0-9 and <25th percentile define relatively low risk older adults.

Machine Learning Adds to Clinical and CAC Assessments in Predicting 10-Year CHD and CVD Deaths.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate whether machine learning (ML) of noncontrast computed tomographic (CT) and clinical variables improves the prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths compared with coronary artery calcium (CAC) Agatston scoring and clinical data. BACKGROUND: The CAC score provides a measure of the global burden of coronary atherosclerosis, and its long-term prognostic utility has been consistently shown to have incremental value over clinical risk assessment. However, current approaches fail to integrate all available CT and clinical variables for comprehensive risk assessment. METHODS: The study included data from 66,636 asymptomatic subjects (mean age 54 ± 11 years, 67% men) without established ASCVD undergoing CAC scanning and followed for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and CHD deaths at 10 years. Clinical risk assessment incorporated the ASCVD risk score. For ML, an ensemble boosting approach was used to fit a predictive classifier for outcomes, followed by automated feature selection using information gain ratio. The model-building process incorporated all available clinical and CT data, including the CAC score; the number, volume, and density of CAC plaques; and extracoronary scores; comprising a total of 77 variables. The overall proposed model (ML all) was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation framework on the population data and area under the curve (AUC) as metrics. The prediction performance was also compared with 2 traditional scores (ASCVD risk and CAC score) and 2 additional models that were trained using all the clinical data (ML clinical) and CT variables (ML CT). RESULTS: The AUC by ML all (0.845) for predicting CVD death was superior compared with those obtained by ASCVD risk alone (0.821), CAC score alone (0.781), and ML CT alone (0.804) (p < 0.001 for all). Similarly, for predicting CHD death, AUC by ML all (0.860) was superior to the other analyses (0.835 for ASCVD risk, 0.816 for CAC, and 0.827 for ML CT; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The comprehensive ML model was superior to ASCVD risk, CAC score, and an ML model fitted using CT variables alone in the prediction of both CVD and CHD death.

Prognostic value of coronary artery calcium score, area, and density among individuals on statin therapy vs. non-users: The coronary artery calcium consortium.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Statins do not decrease coronary artery calcium (CAC) and may increase existing calcification or its density. Therefore, we examined the prognostic significance of CAC among statin users at the time of CAC scanning. METHODS: We included 28,025 patients (6151 statin-users) aged 40-75 years from the CAC Consortium. Cox regression models were used to assess the association of CAC with coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Models were adjusted for traditional CVD risk factors. Additionally, we examined the predictive performance of CAC components including CAC area, volume, and density using an age- and sex-adjusted Cox regression model. RESULTS: Participants (mean age 53.9 ± 10.3 years, 65.0% male) were followed for median 11.2 years. There were 395 CVD and 182 CHD deaths. One unit increase in log CAC score was associated with increased risk of CVD mortality (hazard ratio (HR), 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1-1.3) and CHD mortality (HR, 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1-1.4)) among statin users. There was a small but significant negative interaction between CAC score and statin use for the prediction of CHD (p-value = 0.036) and CVD mortality (p-value = 0.025). The volume score and CAC area were similarly associated with outcomes in statin users and non-users. Density was associated with CVD and CHD mortality in statin naïve patients, but with neither in statin users. CONCLUSION: CAC scoring retains robust risk prediction in statin users, and the changing relationship of CAC density with outcomes may explain the slightly weaker relationship of CAC with outcomes in statin users.

Relation of Absence of Coronary Artery Calcium to Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Risk Among Individuals Meeting Criteria for Statin Therapy According to the 2018/2019 ACC/AHA Guidelines.

The 2013 American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines resulted in broad recommendations for preventive statin therapy allocation in patients without known cardiovascular disease (CVD). Subsequent studies demonstrated significant heterogeneity of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk across the primary prevention population. In 2018/2019, the guidelines were revised to optimize risk assessment and cholesterol management. We sought to evaluate the heterogeneity of risk in statin-recommended patients, using coronary artery calcium (CAC) according to 2018/2019 ACC/AHA guidelines in a primary prevention cohort. We evaluated 5,800 statin-naive patients aged 40 to 75 years without known coronary heart disease from the Cedars-Sinai Medical Center study cohort. All participants underwent clinical CAC scoring for risk stratification and were followed for all-cause and CVD-specific mortality. A total of 181 deaths occurred including 54 CVD deaths over a follow-up of 9.5 years. Overall, 1,939 participants would have been recommended statin therapy, 32% of whom had no detectable CAC. CAC = 0 participants had the lowest all-cause and CVD mortality rates in both statin-recommended and nonrecommended groups (0.2 and 0.4 CVD deaths per 1,000 person-years, respectively). Absence of CAC in statin-naive patients portends an approximately 12-fold lower CVD mortality (0.2% vs 2.4%) in those recommended for statin therapy compared with any CAC present. In conclusion, in a cohort of patients meeting the 2018/2019 ACC/AHA guidelines for statin therapy for primary prevention, there was a marked heterogeneity of CAC scores, with about one-third of the statin recommended population having no detectable CAC (CAC = 0) with a significantly lower CVD mortality compared with CAC>0.