Risk of death by suicide following self-harm presentations to healthcare: development and validation of a multivariable clinical prediction rule (OxSATS).

BACKGROUND: Assessment of suicide risk in individuals who have self-harmed is common in emergency departments, but is often based on tools developed for other purposes. OBJECTIVE: We developed and validated a predictive model for suicide following self-harm. METHODS: We used data from Swedish population-based registers. A cohort of 53 172 individuals aged 10+ years, with healthcare episodes of self-harm, was split into development (37 523 individuals, of whom 391 died from suicide within 12 months) and validation (15 649 individuals, 178 suicides within 12 months) samples. We fitted a multivariable accelerated failure time model for the association between risk factors and time to suicide. The final model contains 11 factors: age, sex, and variables related to substance misuse, mental health and treatment, and history of self-harm. Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis guidelines were followed for the design and reporting of this work. FINDINGS: An 11-item risk model to predict suicide was developed using sociodemographic and clinical risk factors, and showed good discrimination (c-index 0.77, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.78) and calibration in external validation. For risk of suicide within 12 months, using a 1% cut-off, sensitivity was 82% (75% to 87%) and specificity was 54% (53% to 55%). A web-based risk calculator is available (Oxford Suicide Assessment Tool for Self-harm or OxSATS). CONCLUSIONS: OxSATS accurately predicts 12-month risk of suicide. Further validations and linkage to effective interventions are required to examine clinical utility. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Using a clinical prediction score may assist clinical decision-making and resource allocation.

Risk of suicide and self-harm in university students entering different university programs - a national register-based cohort study in Sweden.

PURPOSE: It is not known whether the elevated suicide risk in certain occupations, such as health care professionals, is partly attributable to a selection of individuals with prior vulnerability. We aimed to determine the risk of suicide and self-harm already in students entering different university programs. METHODS: We used national registers to identify 621,218 Swedish residents aged 18-39 years with registration for a university program 1993-2013. Outcomes were suicide and self-harm within three years. We applied logistic regression analyses to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of risk of suicide and self-harm, with the Education program category as a reference. Results were adjusted for sex, age, time period and for history of hospitalization due to mental disorder or self-harm, as a measure of previous vulnerability. In the second step, we stratified results by sex. RESULTS: There was a higher risk of suicide (OR 2.4) in female nursing students and natural science students (OR 4.2) and of self-harm in female and male Nursing/Health care students (OR range 1.2 -1.7). Subcategorization into nursing students only strengthened the association with self-harm for both sexes. Prior vulnerability did not fully explain the increased risk. CONCLUSION: The elevated risk of suicide in nursing and health care occupations partly has its onset in vulnerability factors present before or emerging during university studies. Increased efforts in identifying and treating mental disorders and preventing self-harm in university students could be an important step in preventing future suicides.

Maternal suicide attempts and deaths in the first year after cesarean delivery.

BACKGROUND: Cesarean delivery (CD) has been associated with postpartum psychiatric disorders, but less is known about the risk of suicidal behaviors. We estimated the incidence and risk of suicide attempts and deaths during the first postpartum year in mothers who delivered via CD v. vaginally. METHOD: All deliveries in Sweden between 1973 and 2012 were identified. The mothers were followed since delivery for 12 months or until the date of one of the outcomes (i.e. suicide attempt or death by suicide), death by other causes or emigration. Associations were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. RESULTS: Of 4 016 789 identified deliveries, 514 113 (12.8%) were CDs and 3 502 676 (87.2%) were vaginal deliveries. During the 12-month follow-up, 504 (0.098%) suicide attempts were observed in the CD group and 2240 (0.064%) in the vaginal delivery group (risk difference: 0.034%), while 11 (0.0037%) deaths by suicide were registered in the CD group and 109 (0.0029%) in the vaginal delivery group (risk difference: 0.008%). Compared to vaginal delivery, CD was associated with an increased risk of suicide attempts [hazard ratio (HR) 1.46; 95% CI 1.32-1.60], but not of deaths by suicide (HR 1.44; 95% CI 0.88-2.36). CONCLUSIONS: Maternal suicidal behaviors during the first postpartum year were uncommon in Sweden. Compared to vaginal delivery, CD was associated with a small increased risk of suicide attempts, but not death by suicide. Improved understanding of the association between CD and maternal suicidal behaviors may promote more appropriate measures to improve maternal mental well-being and further reduce suicidal risks.

Overlapping Patterns of Suicide Attempts and Non-suicidal Self-Injuries in Adults: A Prospective Clinical Cohort Study.

Objective: An overlap of non-suicidal self-injuries (NSSIs) and suicide attempts (SAs) is observed in young cohorts, but there are few robust prospective studies for adults. We compared 1-year outcomes in adults with different self-harm patterns: NSSI only, NSSI + SA, and SA only.Methods: 793 patients (67% women) consecutively presenting with NSSI (17%) or SA (83%) at 3 Swedish hospitals took part in face-to-face interviews. Past and current self-harm was characterized by the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale. Clinical records and national register data were employed to determine 1-year outcomes.Results: At inclusion, over half of the participants had engaged in both NSSI and SA; 41% had SA only and 5%, NSSI only. During follow-up, non-fatal SAs were observed in approximately one-third of the total group (n = 269). Suicides occurred in 2% of those with NSSI + SA; the same proportion was seen in the SA only group. No suicides were observed in those with NSSI only. In a multiple logistic regression analysis, the NSSI + SA pattern was associated with a more than 3-fold risk of subsequent fatal/non-fatal suicidal behavior compared to "pure" NSSI; risk was not elevated in those with "pure" SA. Neither sex nor age group predicted subsequent suicidal behavior.Conclusions: Switching between behaviors with and without suicidal intent was common in this adult clinical cohort. Risk of subsequent suicidal behavior was tripled in the combined group. Clinicians who assess adults with NSSI must evaluate not only current but also previous episodes when assessing future risk of suicidal behavior.

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in adults who present with self-harm: a comparative 6-month follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: ADHD is common in psychiatric populations. This study aimed to compare clinical characteristics in adults with and without ADHD who presented with self-harm, and to compare later risk of suicidal behaviour within 6 months. METHODS: Eight hundred four adults presented with self-harm (with and without suicidal intent) at psychiatric emergency services at three Swedish hospitals. Persons with a discharge ICD-10 diagnosis F90.0-F90.9 or a prescription for ADHD medication were considered to have ADHD (n = 93). Medical records were reviewed for evidence of subsequent suicide attempts (SA) within 6 months; suicides were identified by national register. RESULTS: Recent relationship problems were more prevalent in the ADHD group. While the index episodes of those with ADHD were more often non-suicidal, and actual SAs more often rated as impulsive, medical lethality at presentation did not differ in attempters with and without ADHD. Subsequent SAs (fatal or non-fatal) were observed in 29% of the ADHD group and 20% in all others (P = .005). A logistic regression model showed elevated risk of suicidal behaviour during follow-up in the ADHD group (OR = 1.70, CI 1.05-2.76), although a final regression model suggested that this association was partly explained by age and comorbid emotionally unstable personality disorder. CONCLUSIONS: Findings highlight the need for clinicians to take self-harm seriously in adults with ADHD.

Clinical Characteristics in Older, Middle-Aged and Young Adults Who Present With Suicide Attempts at Psychiatric Emergency Departments: A Multisite Study.

OBJECTIVES: To study age group differences in clinical characteristics in older, middle-aged and younger adults with actual suicide attempts (SA). DESIGN: Cross-sectional cohort study. SETTING: 3 Swedish university hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: 821 persons who presented with self-harm at psychiatric emergency departments participated. Those with non-suicidal self-injury according to the Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS) were excluded, leaving a total of 683 with an actual SA (18-44 years, n = 423; 45-64 years, n = 164; 65+, n = 96). MEASUREMENTS: Suicidal behavior was characterized with the C-SSRS and the Suicide Intent Scale (SIS); symptoms associated with suicide were rated with the Suicide Assessment Scale (SUAS). Diagnoses were set using the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview. Patients self-rated their symptoms with the Karolinska Affective and Borderline Symptoms Scale (KABOSS). RESULTS: Older adults scored higher than the younger group on SIS total score and on the subjective subscale, but no age group differences were detected for the objective subscale. Half of the 65+ group fulfilled criteria for major depression, compared to 3-quarters in both the middle-aged and young groups. Anxiety disorders, as well as alcohol and substance use disorders were also less prevalent in the 65+ group, while serious physical illness was more common. Older adults scored lower on all symptom scales; effect sizes were large. CONCLUSIONS: While older adults with an SA showed higher suicide intent than young adults, they had lower scores on all ratings of psychiatric symptomatology. Low ratings might interfere with clinicians' assessments of the needs of older adults with intentional self-harm.

Cohort profile: the Swedish National Quality Register for bipolar disorder(BipoläR).

PURPOSE: The Swedish National Quality Register for bipolar affective disorder, BipoläR, was established in 2004 to provide nationwide indicators for quality assessment and development in the clinical care of individuals with bipolar spectrum disorder. An ancillary aim was to provide data for bipolar disorder research. PARTICIPANTS: Inclusion criteria for registration in BipoläR is a diagnosis of bipolar spectrum disorder (ICD codes: F25.0, F30.1-F30.2, F30.8-F31.9, F34.0) and treatment at an outpatient clinic in Sweden. BipoläR collects data from baseline and annual follow-up visits throughout Sweden. Data is collected using questionnaires administered by healthcare staff. The questions cover sociodemographic, diagnostic, treatment, outcomes and patient reported outcome variables. The register currently includes 39 583 individual patients with a total of 75 423 baseline and follow-up records. FINDINGS TO DATE: Data from BipoläR has been used in several peer-reviewed publications. Studies have provided knowledge on effectiveness, side effects and use of pharmacological and psychological treatment in bipolar disorder. In addition, findings on the diagnosis of bipolar disorder, risk factors for attempted and completed suicide and health economics have been reported. The Swedish Bipolar Collection project has contributed to a large number of published studies and provides important information on the genetic architecture of bipolar disorder, the impact of genetic variation on disease characteristics and treatment outcome. FUTURE PLANS: Data collection is ongoing with no fixed end date. Currently, approximately 5000 new registrations are added each year. Cohort data are available via a formalised request procedure from Centre of Registers Västra Götaland (e-mail: registercentrum@vgregion.se). Data requests for research purposes require an entity responsible for the research and an ethical approval.

Life Events and Coping Strategies Among Young People Who Died by Suicide or Sudden Violent Death.

Objective: Most empirically anchored psychological models of suicide focus either on the perceived situational stress or on vulnerability factors and coping deficits. The interaction between life stressors and vulnerability factors is less explored. Methods: This case-control study examines interactions between life events and coping strategies in three groups of young people: cases of suicide, cases of other sudden violent death (SVD), and control cases. Results: Four coping strategies, two more adaptive and two more maladaptive, were identified. Distinctive of the suicide and the SVD group was significantly less Planful Problem-Solving, and more Escape-Avoidance and Confrontive Coping than among the controls. Furthermore, Confrontive Coping had significantly higher level in the SVD group than in the suicide group. Between-group differences were partly accounted for differences in negative life events, early and late in life. Both target groups experienced significantly more adverse childhood experiences and recent stressful life events than the controls-the suicide group being more exposed to recent stressful life events even in comparison with the SVD group. This might indicate that adverse childhood experiences are a risk factor for both causes of death, whereas proximal stressful life events are a risk factor for death by suicide to a higher degree than for SVD. Conclusions: Improved understanding of the interplay between life events, both in the far past and present, and coping styles, may facilitate the identification of young people at risk of suicide and violent death.

Swedish nationwide time series analysis of influenza and suicide deaths from 1910 to 1978.

OBJECTIVES: There is concern that the COVID-19 pandemic will be associated with an increase in suicides, but evidence supporting a link between pandemics and suicide is limited. Using data from the three influenza pandemics of the 20th century, we aimed to investigate whether an association exists between influenza deaths and suicide deaths. DESIGN: Time series analysis. SETTING: Sweden. PARTICIPANTS: Deaths from influenza and suicides extracted from the Statistical Yearbook of Sweden for 1910-1978, covering three pandemics (the Spanish influenza, the Asian influenza and the Hong Kong influenza). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual suicide rates in Sweden among the whole population, men and women. Non-linear autoregressive distributed lag models was implemented to explore if there is a short-term and/or long-term relationship of increases and decreases in influenza death rates with suicide rates during 1910-1978. RESULTS: Between 1910 and 1978, there was no evidence of either short-term or long-term significant associations between influenza death rates and changes in suicides (ß coefficients of 0.00002, p=0.931 and ß=0.00103, p=0.764 for short-term relationship of increases and decreases in influenza death rates, respectively, with suicide rates, and ß=-0.0002, p=0.998 and ß=0.00211, p=0.962 for long-term relationship of increases and decreases in influenza death rates, respectively, with suicide rates). The same pattern emerged in separate analyses for men and women. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence of short-term or long-term association between influenza death rates and suicide death rates across three 20th century pandemics.

Trajectories of antidepressant use before and after a suicide attempt among refugees and Swedish-born individuals: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: To identify key information regarding potential treatment differences in refugees and the host population, we aimed to investigate patterns (trajectories) of antidepressant use during 3 years before and after a suicide attempt in refugees, compared with Swedish-born. Association of the identified trajectory groups with individual characteristics were also investigated. METHODS: All 20-64-years-old refugees and Swedish-born individuals having specialised healthcare for suicide attempt during 2009-2015 (n = 62,442, 5.6% refugees) were followed 3 years before and after the index attempt. Trajectories of annual defined daily doses (DDDs) of antidepressants were analysed using group-based trajectory models. Associations between the identified trajectory groups and different covariates were estimated by chi2-tests and multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: Among the four identified trajectory groups, antidepressant use was constantly low (≤15 DDDs) for 64.9% of refugees. A 'low increasing' group comprised 5.9% of refugees (60-260 annual DDDs before and 510-685 DDDs after index attempt). Two other trajectory groups had constant use at medium (110-190 DDDs) and high (630-765 DDDs) levels (22.5 and 6.6% of refugees, respectively). Method of suicide attempt and any use of psychotropic drugs during the year before index attempt discriminated between refugees' trajectory groups. The patterns and composition of the trajectory groups and their association, discriminated with different covariates, were fairly similar among refugees and Swedish-born, with the exception of previous hypnotic and sedative drug use being more important in refugees. CONCLUSIONS: Despite previous reports on refugees being undertreated regarding psychiatric healthcare, no major differences in antidepressant treatment between refugees and Swedish-born suicide attempters were found.

Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale Screen Version: initial screening for suicide risk in a psychiatric emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Suicide screening is routine practice in psychiatric emergency (PE) departments, but evidence for screening instruments is sparse. Improved identification of nascent suicide risk is important for suicide prevention. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the association between the novel Colombia Suicide Severity Rating Scale Screen Version (C-SSRS Screen) and subsequent clinical management and suicide within 1 week, 1 month and 1 year from screening. METHODS: Consecutive patients (N = 18 684) attending a PE department in Stockholm, Sweden between 1 May 2016 and 31 December 2017 were assessed with the C-SSRS Screen. All patients (52.1% women; mean age = 39.7, s.d. = 16.9) were followed-up in the National Cause of Death Register. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curves analyses were conducted. Optimal cut-offs and accuracy statistics were calculated. RESULTS: Both suicidal ideation and behaviour were prevalent at screening. In total, 107 patients died by suicide during follow-up. Both C-SSRS Screen Ideation Severity and Behaviour Scales were associated with death by suicide within 1-week, 1-month and 1-year follow-up. The optimal cut-off for the ideation severity scale was associated with at least four times the odds of dying by suicide within 1 week (adjusted OR 4.7, 95% confidence interval 1.5-14.8). Both scales were also associated with short-term clinical management. CONCLUSIONS: The C-SSRS Screen may be feasible to use in the actual management setting as an initial step before the clinical assessment of suicide risk. Future research may investigate the utility of combining the C-SSRS Screen with a more thorough assessment.

Patient educational level and management of bipolar disorder.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic factors can affect healthcare management. AIMS: The aim was to investigate if patient educational attainment is associated with management of bipolar disorder. METHOD: We included patients with bipolar disorder type 1 (n = 4289), type 2 (n = 4020) and not otherwise specified (n = 1756), from the Swedish National Quality Register for Bipolar Disorder (BipoläR). The association between patients' educational level and pharmacological and psychological interventions was analysed by binary logistic regression. We calculated odds ratios after adjusting for demographic and clinical variables. RESULTS: Higher education was associated with increased likelihood of receiving psychotherapy (adjusted odds ratio 1.34, 95% CI 91.22-1.46) and psychoeducation (adjusted odds ratio 1.18, 95% CI 1.07-1.46), but with lower likelihood of receiving first-generation antipsychotics (adjusted odds ratio 0.76, 95% CI 0.62-0.94) and tricyclic antidepressants (adjusted odds ratio 0.76, 95% CI 0.59-0.97). Higher education was also associated with lower risk for compulsory in-patient care (adjusted odds ratio 0.79, 95% CI 0.67-0.93). CONCLUSIONS: Pharmacological and psychological treatment of bipolar disorder differ depending on patients' educational attainment. The reasons for these disparities remain to be explained.

Healthcare use before and after suicide attempt in refugees and Swedish-born individuals.

PURPOSE: There is a lack of research on whether healthcare use before and after a suicide attempt differs between refugees and the host population. We aimed to investigate if the patterns of specialised (inpatient and specialised outpatient) psychiatric and somatic healthcare use, 3 years before and after a suicide attempt, differ between refugees and the Swedish-born individuals in Sweden. Additionally, we aimed to explore if specialised healthcare use differed among refugee suicide attempters according to their sex, age, education or receipt of disability pension. METHODS: All refugees and Swedish-born individuals, 20-64 years of age, treated for suicide attempt in specialised healthcare during 2004-2013 (n = 85,771 suicide attempters, of which 4.5% refugees) were followed 3 years before and after (Y - 3 to Y + 3) the index suicide attempt (t0) regarding their specialised healthcare use. Annual adjusted prevalence with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of specialised healthcare use were assessed by generalized estimating equations (GEE). Additionally, in analyses among the refugees, GEE models were stratified by sex, age, educational level and disability pension. RESULTS: Compared to Swedish-born, refugees had lower prevalence rates of psychiatric and somatic healthcare use during the observation period. During Y + 1, 25% (95% CI 23-28%) refugees and 30% (95% CI 29-30%) Swedish-born used inpatient psychiatric healthcare. Among refugees, a higher specialised healthcare use was observed in disability pension recipients than non-recipients. CONCLUSION: Refugees used less specialised healthcare, before and after a suicide attempt, relative to the Swedish-born. Strengthened cultural competence among healthcare professionals and better health literacy among the refugees may improve healthcare access in refugees.

Genetic and environmental sources of familial coaggregation of obsessive-compulsive disorder and suicidal behavior: a population-based birth cohort and family study.

Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is associated with high risk of suicide. It is yet unknown whether OCD and suicidal behaviors coaggregate in families and, if so, what are the mechanisms underlying this coaggregation. In a population-based birth cohort and family study, we linked individuals born in Sweden in 1967-2003 (n = 3,594,181) to their parents, siblings, and cousins, and collected register-based diagnoses of OCD, suicide attempts, and deaths by suicide and followed them until December 31, 2013. We also applied quantitative genetic modeling to estimate the contribution of genetic and environmental factors to the familial coaggregation of OCD and suicidal behavior. An elevated risk of suicide attempts was observed across all relatives of individuals with OCD, increasing proportionally to the degree of genetic relatedness, with odds ratios (OR) ranging from 1.56 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.49-1.63) in parents to 1.11 (95% CI 1.07-1.16) in cousins. The risk of death by suicide also increased alongside narrowing genetic distance, but was only significant in parents (OR 1.55; 95% CI 1.40-1.72) and full siblings (OR 1.80; 95% CI 1.43-2.26) of individuals with OCD. Familial coaggregation of OCD and suicide attempts was explained by additive genetic factors (60.7%) and non-shared environment (40.4%), with negligible contribution of shared environment. Similarly, familial coaggregation with death by suicide was attributed to additive genetics (65.8%) and nonshared environment (34.2%). Collectively, these observations indicate that OCD and suicidal behaviors coaggregate in families largely due to genetic factors. The contribution of unique environment is also considerable, providing opportunities to target high-risk groups for prevention and treatment.

Suicide attempt and suicide in refugees in Sweden - a nationwide population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Despite a reported high rate of mental disorders in refugees, scientific knowledge on their risk of suicide attempt and suicide is scarce. We aimed to investigate (1) the risk of suicide attempt and suicide in refugees in Sweden, according to their country of birth, compared with Swedish-born individuals and (2) to what extent time period effects, socio-demographics, labour market marginalisation (LMM) and morbidity explain these associations. METHODS: Three cohorts comprising the entire population of Sweden, 16-64 years at 31 December 1999, 2004 and 2009 (around 5 million each, of which 3.3-5.0% refugees), were followed for 4 years each through register linkage. Additionally, the 2004 cohort was followed for 9 years, to allow analyses by refugees' country of birth. Crude and multivariate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed. The multivariate models were adjusted for socio-demographic, LMM and morbidity factors. RESULTS: In multivariate analyses, HRs regarding suicide attempt and suicide in refugees, compared with Swedish-born, ranged from 0.38-1.25 and 0.16-1.20 according to country of birth, respectively. Results were either non-significant or showed lower risks for refugees. Exceptions were refugees from Iran (HR 1.25; 95% CI 1.14-1.41) for suicide attempt. The risk for suicide attempt in refugees compared with the Swedish-born diminished slightly across time periods. CONCLUSIONS: Refugees seem to be protected from suicide attempt and suicide relative to Swedish-born, which calls for more studies to disentangle underlying risk and protective factors.

Who Is at Risk of Dying Young from Suicide and Sudden Violent Death? Common and Specific Risk Factors among Children, Adolescents, and Young Adults.

OBJECTIVE: Suicides and other sudden violent deaths are the most common causes of death among young people worldwide. This case-control study compared risk factors for suicide and other sudden violent death among young people. METHOD: A total of 436 psychological autopsy interviews with next of kin were performed. The samples aged 10-25 years included 63 cases of suicide, 62 cases of other sudden violent death, and 104 matched living controls. Two stepwise multiple logistic regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: The number of recent stressful life events was the only common risk factor for suicide and other sudden violent death. Specific risk factors for suicide were any form of addiction and being an inpatient in adult psychiatric care. Specific risk factors for other sudden violent death were lower elementary school results, lower educational level, and abuse of psychoactive drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The suicide group seems to have been more vulnerable and exposed to different kinds of stressors, whereas the sudden violent death group seems to have been more acting out and risk-taking. Both groups must be the subject of prevention and intervention programs.

Predicting suicide: A comparison between clinical suicide risk assessment and the Suicide Intent Scale.

BACKGROUND: How suicide risk should be assessed is under discussion with arguments for both actuarial and clinical approaches. The aim of the present study was to compare the predictive accuracy of a clinical suicide risk assessment to that of the Suicide Intent Scale (SIS) in predicting suicide within one year of an episode of self-harm with or without suicidal intent. METHODS: Prospective clinical study of 479 persons assessed in a psychiatric emergency department after an episode of self-harm. The clinical risk assessment and the SIS rating were made independently of each other. Suicides within one year were identified in the National Cause of Death Register. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed, optimal cut-offs were identified and accuracy statistics were calculated. RESULTS: Of 479 participants, 329 (68.7%) were women. The age range was 18-95 years. During one-year follow up, 14 participants died by suicide. The area under the curve (AUC) for the clinical risk assessment and the SIS score were very similar, as were the accuracy statistic measures at the optimal cut-offs of the respective methods. The positive predictive value (PPV) of each assessment method was 6%. LIMITATIONS: The clinical suicide risk assessment is not standardized. The number of suicides is small, not allowing for stratification by e.g. gender or diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Predictive accuracy was similar for a clinical risk assessment and the SIS, and insufficient to guide treatment allocation.