Use of modelling tools to assess climate change impacts on smallholder oil seed yields in South Africa.

Oil seed crops are the second most important field crops after cereals in the agricultural economy globally. The use and demand for oilseed crops such as groundnut, soybean and sunflower have grown significantly, but climate change is expected to alter the agroecological conditions required for oilseed crop production. This study aims to present an approach that utilizes decision-making tools to assess the potential climate change impacts on groundnut, soybean and sunflower yields and the greenhouse gas emissions from the management of the crops. The Decision Support Tool for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v4.7), a dynamic crop model and the Cool Farm Tool, a GHG calculator, was used to simulate yields and estimate GHG emissions from these crops, respectively. Four representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5), three nitrogen (0, 75, and 150 kg/ha) and phosphorous (0, 30 and 60 P kg/ha) fertilizer rates at three sites in Limpopo, South Africa (Ofcolaco, Syferkuil and Punda Maria) were used in field trials for calibrating the models. The highest yield was achieved by sunflower across all crops, years and sites. Soybean yield is projected to decrease across all sites and scenarios by 2030 and 2050, except at Ofcolaco, where yield increases of at least 15.6% is projected under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Positive climate change impacts are predicted for groundnut at Ofcolaco and Syferkuil by 2030 and 2050, while negative impacts with losses of up to 50% are projected under RCP8.5 by 2050 at Punda Maria. Sunflower yield is projected to decrease across all sites and scenarios by 2030 and 2050. A comparison of the climate change impacts across sites shows that groundnut yield is projected to increase under climate change while notable yield losses are projected for sunflower and soybean. GHG emissions from the management of each crop showed that sunflower and groundnut production had the highest and lowest emissions across all sites respectively. With positive climate change impacts, a reduction of GHG emissions per ton per hectare was projected for groundnuts at Ofcolaco and Syferkuil and for sunflower in Ofcolaco in the future. However, the carbon footprint from groundnut is expected to increase by 40 to 107% in Punda Maria for the period up to 2030 and between 70-250% for 2050, with sunflower following a similar trend. We conclude that climate change will potentially reduce yield for oilseed crops while management will increase emissions. Therefore, in designing adaptation measures, there is a need to consider emission effects to gain a holistic understanding of how both climate change impacts on crops and mitigation efforts could be targeted.

Patterns and trends in household food security in rural Mpumalanga Province, South Africa.

This study examines patterns and trends in household food security in Bushbuckridge, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, from 2010 to 2019. We use data from a household panel nested in the Agincourt Health and Socio- Demographic Surveillance System. Findings indicate that there have been improvements in household food security in this rural setting over the last decade. By polychoric principal component analysis, an aggregate food security index was constructed and we observed a small, yet important, proportion of households (7.8 %) that remained chronically food insecure. An ordered probit model was used to estimate the determinants of food security. Findings reveal that the observed differences in household food security status are as a result of differences in socioeconomic status. We therefore recommend that focus must be placed on identifying economic opportunities and empowering the chronically food insecure households if universal household food security is to be attained in rural South Africa and beyond.

Protocol: the complexity of informal caregiving for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias in rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND:  With aging, many people develop Alzheimer's disease or related dementias (ADRD) as well as chronic physical health problems. The consequent care needs can be complicated, with heavy demands on families, households and communities, especially in resource-constrained settings with limited formal care services. However, research on ADRD caregiving is largely limited to primary caregivers and high-income countries. Our objectives are to analyse in a rural setting in South Africa: (1) how extended households provide care to people with ADRD; and (2) how the health and wellbeing of all caregivers are affected by care roles. METHODS:  The study will take place at the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system site of the MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit in Mpumalanga Province, northeast South Africa. We will recruit 100 index individuals predicted to currently have ADRD or cognitive impairment using data from a recent dementia survey. Quantitative surveys will be conducted with each index person's nominated primary caregiver, all other household members aged over 12, and caregiving non-resident kin and non-kin to determine how care and health are patterned across household networks. Qualitative data will be generated through participant observation and in-depth interviews with caregivers, select community health workers and key informants. Combining epidemiological, demographic and anthropological methods, we will build a rich picture of households of people with ADRD, focused on caregiving demands and capacity, and of caregiving's effects on health. DISCUSSION:  Our goal is to identify ways to mitigate the negative impacts of long-term informal caregiving for ADRD when formal supports are largely absent. We expect our findings to inform the development of locally relevant and community-oriented interventions to improve the health of caregivers and recipients, with implications for other resource-constrained settings in both higher- and lower-income countries.