Developing a Modeling Framework for Quantifying the Health and Cost Implications of Antibiotic Resistance for Surgical Procedures.

Background. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global public health threat. The wider implications of AMR, such as the impact of antibiotic resistance (ABR) on surgical procedures, are yet to be quantified. The objective of this study was to produce a conceptual modeling framework to provide a basis for estimating the current and potential future consequences of ABR for surgical procedures in England. Design. A framework was developed using literature-based evidence and structured expert elicitation. This was applied to populations undergoing emergency repair of the neck of the femur and elective colorectal resection surgery. Results. The framework captures the implications of increasing ABR by allowing for higher rates of surgical site infection (SSI) as the effectiveness of antibiotic prophylaxis wanes and worsened outcomes following SSIs to reflect reduced antibiotic treatment effectiveness. The expert elicitation highlights the uncertainty in quantifying the impact of ABR, reflected in the results. A hypothetical SSI rate increase of 14% in a person undergoing emergency repair of the femur could increase costs by 39% (-2% to 108% credible interval [CI]) and decrease quality-adjusted life-years by 11% (0.4% to 62% CI) over 15 y. Conclusions. The modeling framework is a starting point for addressing the implication of ABR on the outcomes and costs of surgeries. Due to clinical uncertainty highlighted in the expert elicitation process, the numerical outputs of the case studies should not be focused on but rather the framework itself, illustration of the evidence gaps, the benefit of expert elicitation in quantifying parameters with limited data, and the potential magnitude of the impact of ABR on surgical procedures. Implications. The framework can be used to support research surrounding the health and cost burden of ABR in England. Highlights: The modeling framework is a starting point for assessing the health and cost impacts of antibiotic resistance on surgeries in England.Formulating a framework and synthesizing evidence to parameterize data gaps provides targets for future research.Once data gaps are addressed, this modeling framework can be used to feed into overall estimates of the health and cost burden of antibiotic resistance and evaluate control policies.

An early cost analysis of magnetic bone growth stimulation in England.

BACKGROUND: Fracture nonunions impact on morbidity and health care costs and are associated with substantial pain, reduced mobility, prolonged morbidity, and a lower quality of life. CMF OrthoLogic 1000 (OL1000) is a bone growth stimulator used to promote fracture healing potentially reducing the need for surgical intervention. A cost analysis comparing CMF OL1000 versus surgical care for patients with nonunion tibial fractures was conducted. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to compare the difference in costs between CMF OL1000 versus surgical care within the English National Health Service over a 2-year time horizon. The effectiveness of CMF OL1000 was based on recently published registry data. Cost data were derived from published sources and national cost databases. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted. RESULTS: The use of CMF OL1000 is estimated to lead to cost-savings of £1,104 per patient, a reduction in average healing time of 2.1 months and a relative risk of infection of 0.19 compared to immediate surgical intervention (standard of care). The results of the model are robust to most changes in input parameters and scenarios considered. CONCLUSIONS: This early analysis shows cost-savings for CMF OL1000 compared with surgical intervention for individuals with nonunion tibial fractures.

An analysis of the cost-effectiveness of transcatheter mitral valve repair for people with secondary mitral valve regurgitation in the UK.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A proportion of chronic heart failure (CHF) patients will experience regurgitation secondary to ventricular remodeling in CHF, known as functional mitral (MR) or tricuspid (TR) regurgitation. Its presence adversely impacts the prognosis and healthcare utilization in CHF patients. The advent of interventional devices for both atrioventricular valves modifies both aspects. We present an economic model structure suitable for comparing interventions used in MR and TR, and assess the cost-effectiveness of transcatheter mitral valve repair (TMVr) plus guideline directed medical therapy (GDMT) compared with GDMT alone in people with MR. METHODS: An economic model with a lifetime time horizon was developed based on extrapolated survival data and using New York Heart Association classifications to describe disease severity in people with functional MR at high risk of surgical mortality or deemed inoperable. Cost and utility values (describing health-related quality-of-life) were assigned to patients dependent on their disease severity. The analysis was conducted from a UK National Health Service perspective. An incremental cost per additional quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was estimated, and sensitivity (one-way and probabilistic) and scenario analyses conducted. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Compared with GDMT, the use of TMVr results in an additional 1.07 QALYs and an increase in costs of £32,267 per patient over a lifetime time horizon. The estimated incremental cost per QALY gained is £30,057 and would therefore be on the threshold of cost-effectiveness at £30,000 per quality adjusted life year. Thus, from a UK reimbursement perspective, in patients with severe functional MR who are at high risk of surgical mortality or deemed inoperable with conventional surgery, TMVr plus medical therapy is likely to represent a cost-effective treatment option compared with GDMT alone. The choice of device (MitraClip or PASCAL) will need to be confirmed once further clinical data are reported.