Do private health providers help achieve Universal Health Coverage? A scoping review of the evidence from low-income countries.

Universal Health Coverage (UHC) is the dominant paradigm in health systems research, positing that everyone should have access to a range of affordable health services. Although private providers are an integral part of world health systems, their contribution to achieving UHC is unclear, particularly in low-income countries (LICs). We scoped the literature to map out the evidence on private providers' contribution to UHC progress in LICs. Literature searches of PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science were conducted in 2022. A total of 1049 documents published between 2002 and 2022 were screened for eligibility using predefined inclusion criteria, focusing on formal as well as informal private health sectors in 27 LICs. Primary qualitative, quantitative and mixed-methods evidence was included, as well as original analysis of secondary data. The Joanna Briggs Institute's critical appraisal tool was used to assess the quality of the studies. Relevant evidence was extracted and analysed using an adapted UHC framework. We identified 34 papers documenting how most basic health care services are already provided through the private sector in countries such as Uganda, Afghanistan and Somalia. A substantial proportion of primary care, mother, child and malaria services are available through non-public providers across all 27 LICs. Evidence exists that while formal private providers mostly operate in well-served urban settings, informal and not-for-profit ones cater for underserved rural and urban areas. Nonetheless, there is evidence that the quality of the services by informal providers is suboptimal. A few studies suggested that the private sector fails to advance financial protection against ill-health, as costs are higher than in public facilities and services are paid out of pocket. We conclude that despite their shortcomings, working with informal private providers to increase quality and financing of their services may be key to realizing UHC in LICs.

What happened to health labour markets during COVID-19? Insights from the analysis of cross-sectional survey data on the perceptions of medical doctors in Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: To examine physicians' perceptions of changing employment opportunities in Brazil, and gain an insight into labour markets in low/middle-income countries (LMICs) during the pandemic. STUDY DESIGN: Descriptive and inferential analysis of a quantitative dataset from a representative cross-sectional survey of physicians of two Brazilian states. SETTINGS: São Paulo and Maranhão states in Brazil. PARTICIPANTS: Representative sample of 1183 physicians. OUTCOME MEASURES: We estimated prevalence and 95% CIs for physicians' perceptions of changes in demand and supply of doctors, as well as changes in prices of medical services for facilities of practice in the two states, stratified by public, private and dual-practice physicians. RESULTS: Most doctors reported increased job opportunities in the public sector (54.9%, 95% CI 52.0% to 57.7%), particularly in Maranhão state (65.0%, 95% CI 60.9% to 68.9%). For the private sector, increased opportunities were reported only in large private hospitals (46.7%, 95% CI 43.9% to 49.6%) but not in smaller clinics. We recorded perceptions of slight increases in availability of doctors in Maranhão, particularly in the public sector (51.4%, 95% CI 43.2% to 59.5%). Younger doctors recounted increased vacancies in the public sector (64%, 95% CI 58.1% to 68.1%), older doctors only in walk-in clinics in Maranhão (47.5%, 95% CI 39.9% to 55.1%). Those working directly with patients with COVID-19 saw opportunities in public hospitals (65%, 95% CI 62.3% to 68.4%) and in large private ones (55%, 95% CI 51.8% to 59.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings hint that health labour markets in LMICs may not necessarily shrink during epidemics, and that impacts will depend on the balance of public and private services in national health systems.

The layered crisis of the primary care medical workforce in the European region: what evidence do we need to identify causes and solutions?

Primary care services are key to population health and for the efficient and equitable organisation of national health systems. This is why they are often financed through public funds. Primary care doctors are instrumental for the delivery of preventive services, continuity of care, and for the referral of patients through the system. These cadres are also the single largest health expenditure at the core of such services. Although recruitment and retention of primary care doctors have always been challenging, shortages are now exacerbated by higher demand for services from aging populations, increased burden of chronic diseases, backlogs from the COVID-19 pandemic, and patient expectations. At the same time, the supply of primary care physicians is constrained by rising retirement rates, internal and external migration, worsening working conditions, budget cuts, and increased burnout. Misalignment between national education sectors and labour markets is becoming apparent, compounding staff shortages and maldistribution. With their predominantly publicly funded health systems and in the aftermath of COVID-19, countries of the European region appear to be now on the cusp of a multi-layered, slow-burning primary care crisis, with almost every country reporting long waiting lists for doctor appointments, shortages of physicians, unfilled vacancies, and consequently, added pressures on hospitals' Accident and Emergency services. This articles collection aims at pulling together the evidence from countries of the European Region on root causes of such workforce crisis, impacts, and effectiveness of existing policies to mitigate it. Original research is needed, offering analysis and fresh insights into the primary care medical workforce crisis in wider Europe. Ultimately, the aim of this articles collection is to provide an evidence basis for the identification of policy solutions to present and future primary health care crises in high as well as lower-income countries.

Factors that influenced utilization of antenatal and immunization services in two local government areas in The Gambia during COVID-19: An interview-based qualitative study.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence is being consolidated that shows that the utilization of antenatal and immunization services has declined in low-income countries (LICs) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Very little is known about the effects of the pandemic on antenatal and immunization service utilization in The Gambia. We set out to explore the COVID-19-related factors affecting the utilization of antenatal and immunization services in two Local Government Areas (LGAs) in The Gambia. METHODS: A qualitative methodology was used to explore patients' and providers' experiences of antenatal and immunization services during the pandemic in two LGAs in The Gambia. Thirty-one study participants were recruited from four health facilities, applying a theory-driven sampling framework, including health workers as well as female patients. Qualitative evidence was collected through theory-driven semi-structured interviews, and was recorded, translated into English, transcribed, and analysed thematically, applying a social-ecological framework. RESULTS: In our interviews, we identified themes at five different levels: individual, interpersonal, community, institutional and policy factors. Individual factors revolved around patients' fear of being infected in the facilities, and of being quarantined, and their anxiety about passing on infections to family members. Interpersonal factors involved the reluctance of partners and family members, as well as perceived negligence and disrespect by health workers. Community factors included misinformation within the community and mistrust of vaccines. Institutional factors included the shortage of health workers, closures of health facilities, and the lack of personal protective equipment (PPEs) and essential medicines. Finally, policy factors revolved around the consequences of COVID-19 prevention measures, particularly the shortage of transport options and mandatory wearing of face masks. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that patients' fears of contagion, perceptions of poor treatment in the health system, and a general anxiety around the imposing of prevention measures, undermined the uptake of services. In future emergencies, the government in The Gambia, and governments in other LICs, will need to consider the unintended consequences of epidemic control measures on the uptake of antenatal and immunization services.

Testing for SARS-CoV-2 in resource-limited settings: A cost analysis study of diagnostic tests using different Ag-RDTs and RT-PCR technologies in Mozambique.

Early diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 is fundamental to reduce the risk of community transmission and mortality, as well as public sector expenditures. Three years after the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there are still gaps on what is known regarding costs and cost drivers for the major diagnostic testing strategies in low- middle-income countries (LMICs). This study aimed to estimate the cost of SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis of symptomatic suspected patients by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and antigen rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDT) in Mozambique. We conducted a retrospective cost analysis from the provider's perspective using a bottom-up, micro-costing approach, and compared the direct costs of two nasopharyngeal Ag-RDTs (Panbio and Standard Q) against the costs of three nasal Ag-RDTs (Panbio, COVIOS and LumiraDx), and RT-PCR. The study was undertaken from November 2020 to December 2021 in the country's capital city Maputo, in four healthcare facilities at primary, secondary and tertiary levels of care, and at one reference laboratory. All the resources necessary for RT-PCR and Ag-RDT tests were identified, quantified, valued, and the unit costs per test and per facility were estimated. Our findings show that the mean unit cost of SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis by nasopharyngeal Ag-RDTs was MZN 728.00 (USD 11.90, at 2020 exchange rates) for Panbio and MZN 728.00 (USD 11.90) for Standard Q. For diagnosis by nasal Ag-RDTs, Panbio was MZN 547.00 (USD 8.90), COVIOS was MZN 768.00 (USD 12.50), and LumiraDx was MZN 798.00 (USD 13.00). Medical supplies expenditures represented the main driver of the final cost (>50%), followed by personnel and overhead costs (mean 15% for each). The mean unit cost regardless of the type of Ag-RDT was MZN 714.00 (USD 11.60). Diagnosis by RT-PCR cost MZN 2,414 (USD 39.00) per test. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that focussing on reducing medical supplies costs would be the most cost-saving strategy for governments in LMICs, particularly as international prices decrease. The cost of SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis using Ag-RDTs was three times lower than RT-PCR testing. Governments in LMICs can include cost-efficient Ag-RDTs in their screening strategies, or RT-PCR if international costs of such supplies decrease further in the future. Additional analyses are recommended as the costs of testing can be influenced by the sample referral system.

The impacts of COVID-19 and its policy response on access and utilization of maternal and child health services in Tanzania: A mixed methods study.

The SARS-Cov-2 virus (COVID-19) has had a global social and economic impact. Despite the growing evidence, its effects on access and delivery of maternal and child health services in low-income countries are still unclear. This cross-sectional case study was conducted in Mjini Magharibi, Chake Chake, and Ilala districts in Tanzania to help fill this gap. The study combined qualitative and quantitative data collection methods, providing an account of the evolution of the pandemic and the associated control measures in Tanzania. We drew from 34 in-depth interviews, 60 semi-structured interviews, and 14 focus group discussions with key informants, patients, and health providers, and complemented the findings with a review of pandemic reports and health facility records. We followed the Standards for Reporting Qualitative Research (SRQR) to provide an account of the findings. Our account of the pandemic shows that there was at times an inconsistent policy response in Tanzania, with diverse control measures adopted at various stages of the epidemic. There was a perception that COVID-19 services were prioritized during the epidemic at the expense of regular ones. There were reports of reorganisation of health facilities, reallocation of staff, rescheduled antenatal and postnatal clinics, and reduced time for health education and child monitoring. Scarcity of essential commodities was reported, such as vaccines, equipment, and medical supplies. Such perceptions were in part supported by the routine utilization evidence in the three districts, showing a lower uptake of antenatal, postnatal, family planning, and immunization services, as well as fewer institutional deliveries. Our findings suggest that, although the policy response in Tanzania was erratic, it was rather fear of the pandemic itself and diversion of resources to control COVID-19, that may have contributed most to lower the utilization of mother and child services. For future emergencies, it will be crucial to ensure the policy response does not weaken the population's demand for services.

Effects of individual and organizational factors on job tenure of primary care physicians: A multilevel analysis from Brazil.

BACKGROUND: The short tenure of primary care physicians undermines the continuity of care, compromising health outcomes in low-, middle and in high-income countries. The purpose of this study was to investigate the contextual and individual factors associated with the tenure of physician in Primary Health Care (PHC) services. We consider individual-level sociodemographic variables such as education and work-related variables, as well as the characteristics of employers and services. METHODS: This study is a retrospective cohort study of 2,335 physicians in 284 Primary Health Care Units across the São Paulo, Brazil, public health care system from 2016 to 2020. A multivariate hierarchical model was selected, and an adjusted Cox regression with multilevel analysis was employed. The Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) checklist was used to report the findings from the study. RESULTS: The average physician tenure was 14.54 ± 12.89 months, and the median was 10.94 months. Differences between Primary Health Care Units accounted for 10.83% of the variance observed in the outcome, while the employing organizations were responsible for only 2.30%. The physician characteristics associated with higher tenure in PHC were age at hire, i.e., being between 30 and 60 years old, [HR: 0.84, 95% CI: (0.75-0.95)] and professional experience over five years [HR: 0.76, 95% CI: (0.59-0.96)]. Specialties not related to PHC practices were associated with a short tenure [HR: 1.25, 95% CI: (1.02-1.54)]. CONCLUSION: Differences between Primary Health Care Units and in the individual characteristics, such as specializations and experience, are related to the low tenure of professionals, but such characteristics can be changed through investments in PHC infrastructure and changes in work conditions, policies, training, and human resource policies. Finding a remedy for the short tenure of physicians is essential for guaranteeing a robust PHC system that can contribute to universal, resilient, and proactive health care.

The multiple uses of telemedicine during the pandemic: the evidence from a cross-sectional survey of medical doctors in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: The use of telemedicine, or the provision of healthcare and communication services through distance-based technologies, has increased substantially since the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. However, it is still unclear what are the innovative features of the widespread use of such modality, its forms of employment and the context in which it is used across pluralist health systems, particularly in low- and middle-income settings. We have sought to provide empirical evidence on the above issues by analysing the responses of medical doctors in a representative cross-sectional survey in two states in Brazil: São Paulo and Maranhão. METHODS: We analysed the responses of 1,183 physicians to a survey on the impact of COVID-19 on their livelihood and working practice. Two independent samples per state were calculated based on a total of 152,511 active medical registries in São Paulo and Maranhão. Proportional stratified sampling was performed and the distributions for gender, age, state and location of address (capital or countryside) were preserved. The survey contained questions on the frequency of physicians' employment of telemedicine services; the specific activities where these were employed, and; the forms in which the pandemic had influenced the adoption or consolidation of this technology. We performed descriptive and univariate analysis based on the chi-square test or Fisher's exact test for the qualitative data, and the Mann-Whitney test in the quantitative cases. Data were shown as absolute frequency and proportion with a 95% confidence interval. RESULTS: In our sample of physicians, telemedicine was employed as a form of clinical collaboration by most doctors (76.0%, 95 CI 73.6-78.5), but only less than a third of them (30.6%, 95 CI 28.0-33.3) used it as a modality to provide healthcare services. During the pandemic, telemedicine was used predominantly in COVID-19-related areas, particularly for hospital-based in-patient services, and in private clinics and ambulatory settings. Male, younger doctors used it the most. Doctors in São Paulo employed telemedicine more frequently than in Maranhão (p < 0.001), in urban settings more than in rural areas (p < 0.001). Approximately three-quarters of doctors in large hospitals reported using telemedicine services (78.3%, 95 CI 75.9-80.6), followed by doctors working for smaller private clinics (66.4%, 95 CI 63.7-69.1), and by a smaller proportion of primary care doctors (58.4%, 95 CI 55.6-61.2). CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that telemedicine may have helped ensure and expand the range of communication and healthcare services in low- and middle-income settings during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the modality appears to lend itself to be disproportionally used by doctors working in specific, priviledged sections of pluralistic health systems, and presumably by patients seeking care there. Regulation and incentives will be required to support the use of the technology across health systems in low- and middle-income countries in order to increase access to services for less disadvantaged populations.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Physicians' Working Hours and Earnings in São Paulo and Maranhão States, Brazil.

Evidence exists on the health impacts of the current COVID-19 pandemic on health workers, but less is known about its impact on their work dynamics and livelihoods. This matters, as health workers-and physicians in particular-are a scarce and expensive resource in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Our cross-sectional survey set out to explore changes in working hours and earnings during the second year of the pandemic in a representative sample of 1183 physicians in Brazil's São Paulo (SP) and Maranhão (MA) states. Descriptive analysis and inferential statistics were employed to explore differences in working hours and earnings among public and private sector physicians across the two locations. The workloads and earnings of doctors working exclusively in the public sector increased the most in the second year of the epidemic, particularly in MA. Conversely, the largest proportion of private-only doctors in our sample saw a decrease in their working hours (48.4%, 95% CI 41.8-55.0), whereas the largest proportion of public-only doctors in MA saw an increase in their working hours (44.4%, 95% CI 38.0-50.8). Although earnings remained broadly stable in the public sector, a third of public sector-only physicians in MA saw an increase in their earnings (95% CI 24.4-36.2). More than half of private-only doctors across both states saw a decrease in their earnings (52.2%, 95% CI 45.6-58.8). The largest proportion of dual practitioners (the majority in Brazil and in our sample) maintained their pre-pandemic levels of income (38.8%, 95% CI 35.3-42.3). As public-sector doctors have been key in the fight against the pandemic, it is critical to invest in these cadres in order to develop epidemic preparedness in LMICs, and to find new ways to harness for-profit actors to deliver social benefits.

Demographic and professional risk factors of SARS-CoV-2 infections among physicians in low- and middle-income settings: Findings from a representative survey in two Brazilian states.

Health workers (HWs) are a key resource for health systems worldwide, and have been affected heavily by the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence is consolidating on incidence and drivers of infections, predominantly in high-income settings. It is however unclear what the risk factors may be for specific health professions, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We conducted a cross-sectional survey in a representative sample of 1,183 medical doctors registered with Brazil's Federal Council of Medicine in one developed (São Paulo) and one disadvantaged state (Maranhão). Between February-June 2021, we administered a telephone questionnaire to collect data on physicians' demographics, deployment to services, vaccination status, and self-reported COVID-19 infections. We performed descriptive, univariate, and multilevel clustered analysis to explore the association between physicians' infection rates, and their sociodemographic and employment characteristics. A generalized linear mixed model with a binomial distribution was used to estimate the adjusted odds ratio. We found that 35.8% of physicians in our sample declared having been infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus during the first year of the pandemic. The infection rate in Maranhão (49.2%) [95% CI 45.0-53.4] was almost twice that in São Paulo (24.1%) [95% CI 20.8-27.5]. Being a physician in Maranhão [95% CI 2.08-3.57], younger than 50 years [95% CI 1.41-2.89] and having worked in a COVID-19 ward [95% CI 1.28-2.27], were positively associated with the probability of infection. Conversely, working with diagnostic services [95% CI 0.53-0.96], in administrative functions [95% CI 0.42-0.80], or in teaching and research [95% CI 0.48-0.91] were negatively associated. Based on our data from Brazil, COVID-19 infections in LMICs may be more likely in health systems with lower physician-to-patient ratios, and younger doctors working in COVID-19 wards may be infected more frequently. Such findings may be used to identify policies to mitigate COVID-19 effects on HWs in LMICs.

Epidemics, Lockdown Measures and Vulnerable Populations: A Mixed-Methods Systematic Review of the Evidence of Impacts on Mother and Child Health in Low-and Lower-Middle-Income Countries.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this research was to synthetise the existing evidence on the impact of epidemic-related lockdown measures on women and children's health in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs). METHODS: A mixed-methods systematic review was conducted of qualitative, quantitative and mixed-methods evidence. Between 1st and 10th of November 2021, seven scientific databases were searched. The inclusion criteria were that the paper provided evidence on the impact of lockdown and related measures, focused on LLMICs, addressed impacts on women and child's health, addressed epidemics from 2000-2020, was peer-reviewed, provided original evidence, and was published in English. The Joanne Briggs Institute's critical appraisal tools were used to assess the quality of the studies, and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines for reporting. The evidence from the papers was grouped by type of lockdown measure and categories of impact, using a narrative data-based convergent synthesis design. RESULTS: The review process identified 46 papers meeting the inclusion criteria from 17 countries that focussed on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and Ebola epidemics. The evidence on the decrease of utilisation of health services showed plummeting immunisation rates and faltering use of maternal and perinatal services, which was linked to a growth of premature deaths. Impacts on the mental health of children and women were convincingly established, with lockdowns associated with surges in depression, anxiety and low life satisfaction. Vulnerability may be compounded by lockdowns, as livelihoods were disrupted, and poverty levels increased. CONCLUSION: Limitations included that searches were conducted in late-2020 as new research was being published, and that some evidence not published in English may have been excluded. Epidemic-related lockdown measures carry consequences for the health of women and children in lower-income settings. Governments will need to weigh the trade-offs of introducing such measures and consider policies to mitigate their impacts on the most vulnerable.

The impact of economic recessions on health workers: a systematic review and best-fit framework synthesis of the evidence from the last 50 years.

Economic crises carry a substantial impact on population health and health systems, but little is known on how these transmit to health workers (HWs). Addressing such a gap is timely as HWs are pivotal resources, particularly during pandemics or the ensuing recessions. Drawing from the empirical literature, we aimed to provide a framework for understanding the impact of recessions on HWs and their reactions. We use a systematic review and best-fit framework synthesis approach to identify the relevant qualitative, quantitative and mixed-methods evidence, and refine an a priori, theory-based conceptual framework. Eight relevant databases were searched, and four reviewers employed to independently review full texts, extract data and appraise the quality of the evidence retrieved. A total of 57 peer-reviewed publications were included, referring to six economic recessions. The 2010-15 Great Recession in Europe was the subject of most (52%) of the papers. Our consolidated framework suggests that recessions transmit to HWs through three channels: (1) an increase in the demand for services; (2) the impacts of austerity measures; and (3) changes in the health labour market. Some of the evidence appeared specific to the context of crises; demand for health services and employment increased during economic recessions in North America and Oceania, but stagnated or declined in Europe in connection with the austerity measures adopted. Burn-out, lay-offs, migration and multiple jobholding were the reactions observed in Europe, but job opportunities never dwindled for physicians during recessions in North America, with nurses re-entering labour markets during such crises. Loss of motivation, absenteeism and abuse of health systems were documented during recessions in low-income countries. Although the impacts of recessions may vary across economic events, health systems, labour markets and policy responses, our review and framework provide an evidence base for policies to mitigate the effects on HWs.

How the 'plates' of a health system can shift, change and adjust during economic recessions: A qualitative interview study of public and private health providers in Brazil's São Paulo and Maranhão states.

BACKGROUND: Economic recessions carry an impact on population health and access to care; less is known on how health systems adapt to the conditions brought by a downturn. This particularly matters now that the COVID-19 epidemic is putting health systems under stress. Brazil is one of the world's most affected countries, and its health system was already experiencing the aftermath of the 2015 recession. METHODS: Between 2018 and 2019 we conducted 46 semi-structured interviews with health practitioners, managers and policy-makers to explore the impact of the 2015 recession on public and private providers in prosperous (São Paulo) and impoverished (Maranhão) states in Brazil. Thematic analysis was employed to identify drivers and consequences of system adaptation and coping strategies. Nvivo software was used to aid data collection and analysis. We followed the Standards for Reporting Qualitative Research to provide an account of the findings. RESULTS: We found the concept of 'health sector crisis' to be politically charged among healthcare providers in São Paulo and Maranhão. Contrary to expectations, the public sector was reported to have found ways to compensate for diminishing federal funding, having outsourced services and adopted flexible-if insecure-working arrangements. Following a drop in employment and health plans, private health insurance companies have streamlined their offer, at times at the expenses of coverage. Low-cost walk-in clinics were hit hard by the recession, but were also credited for having moved to cater for higher-income customers in Maranhão. CONCLUSIONS: The 'plates' of a health system may shift and adjust in unexpected ways in response to recessions, and some of these changes might outlast the crisis. As low-income countries enter post-COVID economic recessions, it will be important to monitor the adjustments taking place in health systems, to ensure that past gains in access to care and job security are not eroded.

The differential impact of economic recessions on health systems in middle-income settings: a comparative case study of unequal states in Brazil.

Introduction: Although economic crises are common in low/middle-income countries (LMICs), the evidence of their impact on health systems is still scant. We conducted a comparative case study of Maranhão and São Paulo, two unevenly developed states in Brazil, to explore the health financing and system performance changes brought in by its 2014-2015 economic recession. Methods: Drawing from economic and health system research literature, we designed a conceptual framework exploring the links between macroeconomic factors, labour markets, demand and supply of health services and system performance. We used data from the National Health Accounts and National Household Sample Survey to examine changes in Brazil's health spending over the 2010-2018 period. Data from the National Agency of Supplementary Health database and the public health budget information system were employed to compare and contrast health financing and system performance of São Paulo and Maranhão. Results: Our analysis shows that Brazil's macroeconomic conditions deteriorated across the board after 2015-2016, with São Paulo's economy experiencing a wider setback than Maranhão's. We showed how public health expenditures flattened, while private health insurance expenditures increased due to the recession. Public financing patterns differed across the two states, as health funding in Maranhão continued to grow after the crisis years, as it was propped up by transfers to local governments. While public sector staff and beds per capita in Maranhão were not affected by the crisis, a decrease in public physicians was observed in São Paulo. Conclusion: Our case study suggests that in a complex heterogeneous system, economic recessions reverberate unequally across its parts, as the effects are mediated by private spending, structure of the market and adjustments in public financing. Policies aimed at mitigating the effects of recessions in LMICs will need to take such differences into account.

The role of private education in the selection of primary care careers in low and middle-income countries. Findings from a representative survey of medical residents in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Primary health care (PHC) doctors' numbers are dwindling in high- as well as low-income countries, which is feared to hamper the achievement of Universal Health Coverage goals. As a large proportion of doctors are privately educated and private medical schools are becoming increasingly common in middle-income settings, there is a debate on whether private education represents a suitable mean to increase the supply of PHC physicians. We analyse the intentions to practice of medical residents in Brazil to understand whether these differ for public and private schools. METHODS: Drawing from the literature on the selection of medical specialties, we constructed a model for the determinants of medical students' intentions to practice in PHC, and used secondary data from a nationally representative sample of 4601 medical residents in Brazil to populate it. Multivariate analysis and multilevel cluster models were employed to explore the association between perspective physicians' choice of practice and types of schools attended, socio-economic characteristics, and their values and opinions on the profession. RESULTS: Only 3.7% of residents in our sample declared an intention to practice in PHC, with no significant association with the public or private nature of the medical schools attended. Instead, having attended a state secondary school (p = 0.028), having trained outside Brazil's wealthy South East (p < 0.001), not coming from an affluent family (p = 0.037), and not having a high valuation of career development opportunities (p < 0.001) were predictors of willingness to practice in PHC. A low consideration for quality of life, for opportunities for treating patients, and for the liberal aspects of the profession were also associated with future physicians' intentions to work in primary care (all p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In Brazil, training in public or private medical schools does not influence the intention to practice in PHC. But students from affluent backgrounds, with private secondary education, and graduating in the rich South East were found to be overrepresented in both types of training institutions, and this is what appears to negatively impact the selection of PHC careers. With a view to increasing the supply of PHC practitioners in middle-income countries, policies should focus on opening medical schools in rural areas and improving access for students from disadvantaged backgrounds.

Impact of economic recessions on healthcare workers and their crises' responses: study protocol for a systematic review of the qualitative and quantitative evidence for the development of an evidence-based conceptual framework.

INTRODUCTION: During economic recessions, health professionals face reduced income and labour opportunities, hard conditions often exacerbated by governments' policy responses to crises. Growing evidence points to non-negligible effects on national health workforces and health systems-decrease in motivation, burnout, migration-arising from the combination of crisis-related factors. However, no theoretical conceptualisation currently exists framing the impacts recessions have on human resources for health (HRH), or on their reactions. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This paper lays out a protocol for a systematic review of the existing qualitative, quantitative and mixed-method evidence on the economic recessions and HRH; results from the review will be used to develop a conceptual framework linking existing theories on recessions, austerity measures, health systems and population health, with a view of informing future health policies. Eight relevant databases within the health, health systems, multidisciplinary and economic literature will be searched, complemented by secondary searches and experts' input. Eligible studies will present primary quantitative or qualitative evidence on HRH impacts, or original secondary analyses. We will cover the 1970-2019 period-the modern age of global economic recessions-and full texts in English, Spanish, Italian, French, Portuguese or Greek. Two reviewers will independently assess, perform data extraction and conduct quality appraisal of the texts identified. A 'best-fit' framework synthesis will be applied to summarise the findings, using an a priori, theoretically driven framework. That preliminary framework was built by the research team to inform the searches, and will be appraised by external experts. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: In addition to peer-reviewed publications, the new framework will be presented in global health systems research conferences and inform regional policy dialogue workshops in Latin America on economic recessions and health systems. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019134165.

Health workers' strikes in low-income countries: the available evidence.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the characteristics, frequency, drivers, outcomes and stakeholders of health workers' strikes in low-income countries. METHODS: We reviewed the published and grey literature from online sources for the years 2009 to 2018. We used four search strategies: (i) exploration of main health and social sciences databases; (ii) use of specialized websites on human resources for health and development; (iii) customized Google search; and (iv) consultation with experts to validate findings. To analyse individual strike episodes, pre-existing conditions and influencing actors, we developed a conceptual framework from the literature. RESULTS: We identified 116 records reporting on 70 unique health workers' strikes in 23 low-income countries during the period, accounting for 875 days of strike. Year 2018 had the highest number of events (17), corresponding to 170 work days lost. Strikes involving more than one professional category was the frequent strike modality (32 events), followed by strikes by physicians only (22 events). The most commonly reported cause was complaints about remuneration (63 events), followed by protest against the sector's governance or policies (25 events) and safety of working conditions (10 events). Positive resolution was achieved more often when collective bargaining institutions and higher levels of government were involved in the negotiations. CONCLUSION: In low-income countries, some common features appear to exist in health sector strikes' occurrence and actors involved in such events. Future research should focus on both individual events and regional patterns, to form an evidence base for mechanisms to prevent and resolve strikes.