Preying on beauty? The complex social dynamics of overtourism.

Overtourism is an increasingly relevant problem for tourist destinations, and some cities are starting to take extreme measures to counter it. In this paper, we introduce a simple mathematical model that analyzes the dynamics of the populations of residents and tourists when there is a competition for the access to local services and resources, since the needs of the two populations are partly mutually incompatible. We study under what conditions a stable equilibrium where residents and tourists coexist is reached, and what are the conditions for tourists to take over the city and to expel residents, among others. Even small changes in key parameters may bring about very different outcomes. Policymakers should be aware that a sound knowledge of the structural properties of the dynamics is important when taking measures, whose effect could otherwise be different than expected and even counterproductive.

The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics.

In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

The Ecology of Defensive Medicine and Malpractice Litigation.

Using an evolutionary game, we show that patients and physicians can interact with predator-prey relationships. Litigious patients who seek compensation are the 'predators' and physicians are their 'prey'. Physicians can adapt to the risk of being sued by performing defensive medicine. We find that improvements in clinical safety can increase the share of litigious patients and leave unchanged the share of physicians who perform defensive medicine. This paradoxical result is consistent with increasing trends in malpractice claims in spite of safety improvements, observed for example in empirical studies on anesthesiologists. Perfect cooperation with neither defensive nor litigious behaviors can be the Pareto-optimal solution when it is not a Nash equilibrium, so maximizing social welfare may require government intervention.

Rural poor economies and foreign investors: an opportunity or a risk?

In the current age of commercial and financial openness, remote and poor local economies are becoming increasingly exposed to inflows of external capital. The new investors - enjoying lower credit constraints than local dwellers - might play a propulsive role in local development. At the same time, inflows of external capital can have negative impacts on local natural resource-dependent activities. We analyze a two-sector model where both sectors damage the environment, but only that of domestic producers relies on natural resources. We assess under which conditions the coexistence of the two sectors is compatible with sustainability, defined as convergence to a stationary state characterized by a positive stock of the natural resource. Moreover, we find that capital inflows can be stimulated by an increase in the pollution intensity of incoming activities, but also in the pollution intensity of the domestic sector; in both cases, capital inflows generate environmental degradation and a decrease in welfare for the local population. Finally, we show that a reduction in the cost of capital for external investors and the consequent capital inflows have the effect to increase wages, local investments and welfare of the local populations only if the environmental impact of the external sector is relatively low with respect to that of local activities. Otherwise, an unexpected scenario characterized by a reduction in domestic capital accumulation and the impoverishment of local agents can occur.