Predictors for unplanned hospital admissions in community dwelling adults: A dynamic cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Polypharmacy and inappropriate medication use are associated with unplanned hospital admissions. Targeted interventions might reduce the hospitalization risk. Yet, it remains unclear which patient profiles derive the largest benefit from such interventions. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine independent risk factors, among which polypharmacy, for unplanned hospital admissions in a cohort of community dwelling adults. METHODS: A retrospective study was performed using a large general practice registry and an insurance database in Flanders, Belgium. Community dwelling adults aged 40 years or older with data for 2013-2015 were included. The index date was the last general practitioner contact in 2014. Determinants were collected during the preceding year. Unplanned hospital admissions were determined during the year after the index date. Univariable logistic regression models were fitted on each risk factor for an unplanned hospital admission as the primary outcome. Two multivariable models were derived. RESULTS: In total, 40411 patients were included and 2126 (5.26%) experienced an unplanned hospital admission. Mean age was 58.3 (±12.3) years. The two models identified the following determinants for an unplanned hospital admission: excessive polypharmacy, older age, male sex, number of comorbidities, atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or stroke, low hemoglobin, use of hypnotics, antipsychotics, antidepressants or antiepileptics and prior hospital and general practitioner visits. Prior hospital visits was the largest determinant. CONCLUSIONS: In our study we identified and confirmed the presence of known determinants for unplanned hospital admissions in community dwelling adults, most of which align with a geriatric phenotype. Our findings can inform the allocation of interventions aiming to reduce unplanned hospital admissions.

Trends and regional variations in prescriptions dispensed to stimulate uterine contractions at the end of pregnancy in Belgium: A community-based study from 2003 to 2018.

PURPOSE: To investigate trends and regional variations in uterotonics dispensed around birth between 2003 and 2018 in Belgium. METHODS: Data, including outpatient and inpatient prescriptions were extracted from a nationally representative prescription database. The prevalence of uterotonics dispensed during a period including the 7 days before birth, the delivery day and the 7 days after birth was computed over three 4-year-long study periods from 2003 to 2018. The trends between periods and associations between the use of at least one uterotonic and maternal age, region of residence, delivery type and social status were assessed using logistic regression. RESULTS: In total, 31 675 pregnancies were included in the study. The proportion of pregnancies exposed to at least one uterotonic decreased significantly from 92.9% (95%CI, 92.3-93.4) in 2003-2006 to 91.4% (95%CI, 90.7-92.0) in 2015-2018 for vaginal births and from 95.5% (95%CI, 94.5-96.4) to 93.7% (95%CI, 92.6-94.7) for caesarean sections. However, for vaginal births, the proportion of oxytocin increased from 84.5% (95%CI, 83.7-85.2) to 89% (95%CI 88.3-89.7). A significant association was found between uterotonic agent use and maternal age, region of residence, and delivery type. The dispensation of some uterotonic agents differed significantly between the regions. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of pregnancies exposed to at least one uterotonic was high across the study period but decreased slightly between 2003 and 2018. Important variations in uterotonic use between regions highlight the need for improved national guidance.

Polypharmacy and excessive polypharmacy in community-dwelling middle aged and aged adults between 2011 and 2015.

AIMS: We aimed to assess the prevalence, components and evolution of polypharmacy and to evaluate risk factors associated with polypharmacy. METHODS: A retrospective dynamic cohort study was performed, using a primary healthcare database comprising Flemish community-dwelling adults aged ≥40 years between 2011 and 2015. Polypharmacy and excessive polypharmacy were defined as the use of 5-9 or minimum 10 different medications during 1 year, respectively. Temporal changes were analysed using an autoregressive error model. Risk factors for polypharmacy were evaluated using logistic regression. RESULTS: In total, 68 426 patients were included in the analysis. The prevalence of polypharmacy was 29.5% and 16.1% for excessive polypharmacy in 2015. The age-standardised prevalence rate of patients using minimum five medications increased with 1.3% per year (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.1968-2.4279). The mean number of unplanned hospital admissions was 0.07 (standard deviation (SD) 0.33) for polypharmacy patients and 0.19 (SD 0.53) for excessive polypharmacy patients. Four risk factors were found to be significantly correlated with polypharmacy: age (odds ratio (OR) 1.015; 95% CI: 1.013-1.017), female gender (OR 1.161; 95% CI: 1.108-1.216), number of chronic diseases (OR 1.126; 95% CI: 1.114-1.139) and number of general practitioner contacts (OR 1.283; 95% CI: 1.274-1.292). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of polypharmacy increased between 2011 and 2015. Polypharmacy and excessive polypharmacy patients appeared to differ based on our observations of characteristics, drug therapy and outcomes. Age, female gender, number of chronic diseases and number of general practitioner contacts were associated with polypharmacy.

Normative data for isometric strength of 8 different muscle groups and their usefulness as a predictor of loss of autonomy among physically active nursing home residents: the SENIOR cohort.

OBJECTIVES: To provide normative values for isometric strength of 8 different muscle groups among nursing home residents and to investigate their predictive value for the decline of autonomy. METHODS: This is an analysis of the 1-year follow-up of the SENIOR cohort. At baseline, isometric muscle strength of residents has been assessed for 8 muscle groups using the MicroFET2. The cut-off threshold for low relative isometric muscle strength was defined as the lower quartile. The outcome was the 1-year loss of autonomy (i.e. a decrease of ≥1 point on the ADL scale between baseline and 12-month follow-up). Logistic regressions were carried out to assess the predictive value of isometric muscle strength for the loss of autonomy. RESULTS: 204 subjects (83.2±8.99 years, 72.5% women) were included. Threshold values of isometric strength were: knee flexors=0.94, knee extensors=1.07, ankle flexors=0.77, ankle extensors=0.88, hip abductors=0.78, hip extensors=0.79, elbow flexors=0.99 and elbow extensors= 0.71 N/kg. After adjustment for age and sex, the cut-off values for knee extensors (p=0.04) and for ankle extensors (p=0.03) were significantly predictive of loss of autonomy. CONCLUSIONS: The normative values for knee extensors and ankle extensors are independent predictors for loss of autonomy.

Relationship between peak expiratory flow and incidence of frailty, deaths and falls among nursing home residents: Results of the SENIOR cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To correlate peak expiratory flow (PEF) with the incidence of frailty, deaths and falls among nursing home residents. METHODS: This is a 1-year longitudinal analysis performed on the clinical data of the SENIOR cohort. PEF, measured by peak flow meter, was considered as "low" when the observed value was ≤80% of the theoretical value. Physical capacity was evaluated using Short Physical Performance Battery, balance and gait using Tinetti test and muscle strength using a dynamometer. The incidence of frailty was defined as the transition from a "robust" or "prefrail" status to a "frail" status following Fried's criteria. Deaths and falls were also collected. RESULTS: Among 646 subjects included at baseline (83.2 ± 9 years and 72.1% women), 297 (45.7%) displayed a low PEF. In this subgroup, physical capacity (p-values from 0.01 to <0.001), muscle strength (p < 0.001), balance and gait score (p < 0.001) were significantly lower compared to subjects displaying normal PEF. Subjects who became frail after one year displayed a lower % of the theoretical PEF value compared to those that did not (88.52 ± 45.06 vs 102.78 ± 50.29, respectively, p = 0.03). After adjustment for potential confounding variables (calf circumference, Tinetti test, SPPB test and handgrip strength), PEF was no longer associated with the occurrence of frailty. There was no association between PEF and mortality and falls. CONCLUSION: In a nursing home setting, PEF is not an independent factor associated with the incidence of frailty, deaths and falls.

Safety of Intra-articular Hyaluronic Acid Injections in Osteoarthritis: Outcomes of a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Some controversy exists regarding the safety of intra-articular hyaluronic acid (IAHA) in the management of osteoarthritis (OA). OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to re-assess the safety profile of IAHA in patients with OA, through a comprehensive meta-analysis of randomized, placebo-controlled trials. METHODS: A comprehensive literature search was undertaken in the databases MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and Scopus. Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group trials that assessed adverse events (AEs) with IAHA in patients with OA were eligible for inclusion. Authors and/or study sponsors were contacted to obtain the full report of AEs. The primary outcomes were overall severe and serious AEs, as well as the following MedDRA System Organ Class (SOC)-related AEs: gastrointestinal, cardiac, vascular, respiratory, nervous system, skin and subcutaneous tissue disorders, musculoskeletal, renal and urinary disorders, infections and infestations, and hypersensitivity reaction. RESULTS: Database searches initially identified 1481 records. After exclusions according to the selection criteria, 22 studies were included in the qualitative synthesis, and nine studies having adequate data were ultimately included in the meta-analysis. From the studies excluded according to the pre-specified selection criteria, 21 with other pharmacological OA treatments permitted during the trials were a posteriori included in a parallel qualitative synthesis, from which eight studies with adequate data were finally included in a parallel meta-analysis. Since this meta-analysis was designed to assess safety, the exclusion criterion on concomitant anti-OA medication was crucial. However, due to the high number of studies that allowed mainly concomitant oral non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), we decided to include them in a post hoc parallel analysis in order to compare the results from the two analyses. No statistically significant difference in odds was found between IAHA and placebo for all types of SOC-related disorders, except for infections and infestations, for which significantly lower odds were found with IAHA compared with placebo, both overall (odds ratio [OR] = 0.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.40-0.93; I2 = 0%) and in studies without concomitant anti-OA medication (OR = 0.49, 95% CI 0.27-0.89). There were significant increased odds of reporting serious AEs with IAHA compared with placebo, both overall (OR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.21-2.63; I2 = 0%) and in studies with concomitant anti-OA medication (OR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.10-2.89), but not in studies without concomitant anti-OA medication (OR = 1.78, 95% CI 0.92-3.47). CONCLUSIONS: Using the available data on studies without any concomitant anti-OA medication permitted during clinical trials, IAHA seems not to be associated with any safety issue in the management of OA. However, this evidence was associated with only a "low" to "moderate" certainty. A possible association with increased risk of serious AEs, particularly when used with concomitant OA medications, requires further investigation.

Prediction of the Incidence of Falls and Deaths Among Elderly Nursing Home Residents: The SENIOR Study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate, among nursing home residents, the extent to which the various operational definitions of frailty predict mortality and falls at 1 year. METHODS: We studied 662 participants from the Sample of Elderly Nursing home Individuals: An Observational Research (SENIOR) cohort aged 83.2 ± 8.99 years, including 484 (72.5%) women and living in nursing homes. Among this cohort, 584 and 565 participants, respectively, were monitored over 12 months for mortality assessment and for occurrence of falls (ie, by mean of their medical records). Each patient was subjected to a clinical examination at baseline, during which many original clinical characteristics were collected. Stepwise regression analyses were carried out to predict mortality and falls. RESULTS: Among the participants included in the study, 93 (15.9%) died and 211 (37.3%) experienced a fall during the 1-year of follow-up. After adjustment, none of the definitions of frailty assessed predicted the 1-year occurrence of negative health outcomes. When comparing the clinical characteristics of deceased participants and those still alive, being a man (OR = 1.89; 95% CI: 1.19-3.01; P = .002) and being diagnosed with sarcopenia (OR = 1.7; 95% CI: 1.1-2.92; P = .03) were independent factors associated with 1-year mortality. Other independent factors that were significantly associated with the 1-year occurrence of falls were the results obtained with the Tinetti test (OR = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.87-0.98; P = .04), with the grip strength test (OR = 0.95; 95% CI: 0.90-0.98, P = .03), and with the isometric strength test of elbow extensors (OR = 0.93; 95%CI: 0.87-0.97; P = .04). CONCLUSIONS: Within the operational definitions of frailty assessed, none is sufficiently sensitive to predict the occurrence of falls and deaths at 1 year among nursing home residents. Globally, the frequency of undesirable health outcomes seems to be higher among participants with lower muscle strength and mobility. Medical strategy or adapted physical activity, with the aim of improving specific isometric muscle strength and mobility could potentially, but significantly, reduce the occurrence of falls and even deaths.