ABSTRACT
We estimated the seroprevalence of anti-SARS-COV-2 IgG in different island groups in Okinawa and described its changes over time. A cross-sectional sero-survey was repeated in three distinct periods between July 2020 and February 2021. A total of 2683 serum samples were collected from six referral medical centers, each covering a separate region in Okinawa. Patients who visited the emergency department for any reason and underwent blood collection were eligible for the study. Samples were analyzed using an FDA-authorized two-step enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) protocol. The case detection ratio was computed by dividing the seroprevalence by the attack rate obtained from publicly available surveillance data. In the main island, the seroprevalence was 0.0% (0/392, 95% CI: 0.0-0.9), 0.6% (8/1448, 0.2-1.1), and 1.4% (8/582, 0.6-2.7) at the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd sero-survey, respectively. In the remote islands, the seroprevalence was 0.0% (0/144, 95% CI: 0.0-2.5) and 1.6% (2/123, 0.2-5.8) at the 2nd and 3rd survey, respectively. The overall case detection ratios at the 3rd survey were 2.7 (95% CI: 1.3-5.3) in the main island and 2.8 (0.7-11.1) in the remote islands. The highest age-specific case detection ratio was observed in people aged 20-29 years (8.3, 95% CI: 3.3-21.4) in the main island and in those aged 50-59 years (14.1, 2.1-92.7) in the remote islands. The low seroprevalence at the latest survey suggested that a large-scale epidemic had not yet occurred in Okinawa by February 2021. The case detection ratios imply that the cumulative number of incident cases in Okinawa should be 2-3 times higher than that reported by routine surveillance. The ratio was particularly high in young people probably due to a frequent asymptomatic/mild COVID-19 disease in this age group. To accurately measure the scale of the COVID-19 epidemic, it is crucially important to conduct a sero-survey targeting the young.
ABSTRACT
Among Italy, Spain, and Japan, the age distributions of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) mortality show only small variation even though the number of deaths per country shows large variation. To understand the determinant for this situation, we constructed a mathematical model describing the transmission dynamics and natural history of COVID-19 and analyzed the dataset of fatal cases of COVID-19 in Italy, Spain, and Japan. We estimated the parameter which describes the age-dependency of susceptibility by fitting the model to reported data, taking into account the effect of change in contact patterns during the outbreak of COVID-19, and the fraction of symptomatic COVID-19 infections. Our modelling study revealed that if the mortality rate or the fraction of symptomatic infections among all COVID-19 cases does not depend on age, then unrealistically different age-dependencies of susceptibilities against COVID-19 infections between Italy, Japan, and Spain are required to explain the similar age distribution of mortality but different basic reproduction numbers (R0). Variation of susceptibility by age itself cannot explain the robust age distribution in mortality by COVID-19 in those three countries, however it does suggest that the age-dependencies of i) the mortality rate and ii) the fraction of symptomatic infections among all COVID-19 cases determine the age distribution of mortality by COVID-19.
