Space-time dynamics of a triple epidemic: dengue, chikungunya and Zika clusters in the city of Rio de Janeiro.

Dengue, an arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, has been endemic in Brazil for decades. However, vector-control strategies have not led to a significant reduction in the disease burden and have not been sufficient to prevent chikungunya and Zika entry and establishment in the country. In Rio de Janeiro city, the first Zika and chikungunya epidemics were detected between 2015 and 2016, coinciding with a dengue epidemic. Understanding the behaviour of these diseases in a triple epidemic scenario is a necessary step for devising better interventions for prevention and outbreak response. We applied scan statistics analysis to detect spatio-temporal clustering for each disease separately and for all three simultaneously. In general, clusters were not detected in the same locations and time periods, possibly owing to competition between viruses for host resources, depletion of susceptible population, different introduction times and change in behaviour of the human population (e.g. intensified vector-control activities in response to increasing cases of a particular arbovirus). Simultaneous clusters of the three diseases usually included neighbourhoods with high population density and low socioeconomic status, particularly in the North region of the city. The use of space-time cluster detection can guide intensive interventions to high-risk locations in a timely manner, to improve clinical diagnosis and management, and pinpoint vector-control measures.

Entomo-virological surveillance strategy for dengue, Zika and chikungunya arboviruses in field-caught Aedes mosquitoes in an endemic urban area of the Northeast of Brazil.

Aedes spp. are considered the main vectors of dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) viruses in the world. Arbovirus detection in Aedes mosquitoes can alert authorities to possible outbreaks, reducing the impact of these diseases. The purpose of this study was to perform an operational strategy for virological surveillance of DENV, ZIKV and CHIKV in adult Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes captured at different key-sites in an endemic urban area of the Northeast Region of Brazil, with the prospect of discussing its role as part of an alert system for outbreaks in critical areas. Residential and non-residential premises located in areas of recent of transmission of these arboviruses were selected for adult mosquito collection in the rainy season (July) of 2018. A total of 1068 adult mosquitoes were collected: 946 Culex quinquefasciatus (88.6%), 118 Ae. aegypti (11.0%), two Ae. albopictus (0.2%) and two Aedes taeniorhynchus (0.2%). Among the premises surveyed, recycling points (N = 48, 40.7%), municipal schools (N = 36, 30.5%) and junkyards (N = 31, 26.2%) were the places with the highest frequency of adult Ae. aegypti. Health units (including primary health care facilities and one hospital) (N = 23; 19.5%) together with residential premises (N = 11; 9.3%) presented the lowest frequencies. Total RNAs of the samples were extracted from Aedes mosquitoes and a nested reverse transcription (RT) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay for detecting and typing DENV, ZIKV and CHIKV was performed. From the 37 Aedes spp. pools analyzed (35 Ae. aegypti, one Ae. albopictus and one Ae. taeniorhynchus), seven were positive for DENV-3, including three pools containing Ae. aegypti females, one containing an Ae. aegypti engorged female and three comprised of Ae. aegypti males. The positive pools were composed of mosquitoes collected in public schools, health units, junkyards, recycling points and residential premises. Our findings reinforce the importance of continuous virological surveillance in Aedes mosquitoes, as a useful tool for detecting arboviruses circulation in vulnerable areas, even in low infestation seasons.

Prevalence, Awareness, Treatment and Influence of Socioeconomic Variables on Control of High Blood Pressure: Results of the ELSA-Brasil Study.

High blood pressure (HBP) is the leading risk factor for years of life lost in Brazil. Factors associated with HBP awareness, treatment and control need to be understood better. Our aim is to estimate prevalence, awareness, and types of anti-hypertensive treatment and to investigate the association of HBP control with social position. Data of 15,103 (54% female) civil servants in six Brazilian state capitals collected at the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) baseline (2008-2010) were used to estimate prevalence and cross-sectional association of HBP control with education, per capita family income and self-reported race, using multiple logistic regression. Blood pressure was measured by the oscillometric method. 35.8% were classified as presenting HBP; 76.8% of these used anti-hypertensive medication. Women were more aware than men (84.8% v. 75.8%) and more often using medication (83.1% v. 70.7%). Adjusted HBP prevalence was, in ascending order, Whites (30.3%), Browns (38.2%) and Blacks (49.3%). The therapeutic schemes most used were angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, in isolation (12.4%) or combined with diuretics (13.3%). Among those in drug treatment, controlled blood pressure was more likely in the (postgraduate) higher education group than among participants with less than secondary school education (PR = 1.21; 95% CI: 1.14-1.28), and among Asian (PR = 1.21; 95% CI: 1.12-1.32) and 'Whites (PR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.12-1.26) compared to Blacks. Socioeconomic and racial inequality-as measured by different indicators-are strongly associated with HBP control, beyond the expected influence of health services access.

Occurrence of severe dengue in Rio de Janeiro: an ecological study

Introduction This study aimed to analyze the relationship between the incidence of severe dengue during the 2008 epidemic in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and socioeconomic indicators, as well as indicators of health service availability and previous circulation of the dengue virus serotype-3 (DENV-3). Methods In this ecological study, the units of analysis were the districts of Rio de Janeiro. The data were incorporated into generalized linear models, and the incidence of severe dengue in each district was the outcome variable. Results The districts with more cases of dengue fever in the 2001 epidemic and a higher percentage of residents who declared their skin color or race as black had higher incidence rates of severe dengue in the 2008 epidemic [incidence rate ratio (IRR)= 1.21; 95% confidence interval (95%CI)= 1.05-1.40 and IRR= 1.34; 95%CI= 1.16-1.54, respectively]. In contrast, the districts with Family Health Strategy (FHS) clinics were more likely to have lower incidence rates of severe dengue in the 2008 epidemic (IRR= 0.81; 95%CI= 0.70-0.93). Conclusions At the ecological level, our findings suggest the persistence of health inequalities in this region of Brazil that are possibly due to greater social vulnerability among the self-declared black population. ...

Occurrence of severe dengue in Rio de Janeiro: an ecological study.

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to analyze the relationship between the incidence of severe dengue during the 2008 epidemic in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and socioeconomic indicators, as well as indicators of health service availability and previous circulation of the dengue virus serotype-3 (DENV-3). METHODS: In this ecological study, the units of analysis were the districts of Rio de Janeiro. The data were incorporated into generalized linear models, and the incidence of severe dengue in each district was the outcome variable. RESULTS: The districts with more cases of dengue fever in the 2001 epidemic and a higher percentage of residents who declared their skin color or race as black had higher incidence rates of severe dengue in the 2008 epidemic [incidence rate ratio (IRR)= 1.21; 95% confidence interval (95%CI)= 1.05-1.40 and IRR= 1.34; 95%CI= 1.16-1.54, respectively]. In contrast, the districts with Family Health Strategy (FHS) clinics were more likely to have lower incidence rates of severe dengue in the 2008 epidemic (IRR= 0.81; 95%CI= 0.70-0.93). CONCLUSIONS: At the ecological level, our findings suggest the persistence of health inequalities in this region of Brazil that are possibly due to greater social vulnerability among the self-declared black population. Additionally, the protective effect of FHS clinics may be due to the ease of access to other levels of care in the health system or to a reduced vulnerability to dengue transmission that is afforded by local practices to promote health.

[Access to pediatric cancer care in Brazil: mapping origin-destination flows]. / Assistência ao câncer entre crianças e adolescentes: mapeamento dos fluxos origem-destino no Brasil.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze fl ows of travel between place of residence and health care services by children and adolescents with cancer. METHODS: The flows of travel between place of residence and the health care service for children and adolescents receiving care in Brazil's Unifi ed Health System (SUS) were monitored between 2000 and 2007. The unit of analysis was the health care district. The geographical information system data and network methodology, by type of treatment received (chemotherapy and radiotherapy) and hospital admissions were used. RESULTS: The SUS made 465,289 authorizations for chemotherapy, 29,151 for radiotherapy and 383,568 for hospital admissions for the treatment of children and adolescents with a diagnosis of cancer. The dominant fl ow formed 48 networks for chemotherapy, 53 for radiotherapy and 112 for hospital admissions. Most of the volume of treatment occurred in the health districts of Brazil's 12 largest cities (with strong links between them and each having an extensive area of direct infl uence accompanying the structure of the Brazilian urban system. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying the networks formed by utilization of SUS facilities providing care for children and adolescents with cancer shows that overall most patients are covered by the existing networks. However, about 10% of travel occurs outside the dominant structure, indicating the need for alternative regionalization. These results show the importance of planning the distribution of services to meet the population's needs.

Single nucleotide polymorphisms in candidate genes and dengue severity in children: a case-control, functional and meta-analysis study.

Dengue is an arthropod-borne emerging viral disease with high morbidity and mortality risk in tropical countries like Brazil. Clinical manifestations are vast, ranging from asymptomatic to most severe forms of dengue such as shock. Previous data have shown that host genetics play a role in disease susceptibility and severity. Herein, we have tested the association of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at TNF, IL10, MIF, DCSIGN, CLEC5A, NOD2, CCR5 and MRC1 as candidate genes using a matched case-control study design including 88 severe children cases of dengue patients and 335 healthy unrelated subjects that was also separated in IgG(+) and IgG(-) controls. We demonstrated that the TT genotype of CLEC5A SNP (rs1285933 C>T) is associated with dengue severity (OR=2.25; p=0.03) and that GG genotype of -336G>A DCSIGN (CD209) SNP is associated with protection to severe dengue (OR=0.12; p=0.04). Both comparisons were borderline significant when cases were compared with IgG(+) controls subgroup. Nevertheless, genotype-phenotype correlation was also assessed using serum levels of TNF from infected patients at the onset of dengue fever, and CT/TT carriers in CLEC5A secreted higher levels of TNF than CC individuals in 5-7 days of infection. No significant difference was observed in TNF levels between genotypes GG versus AG/AA at DCSIGN promoter. Next, we performed a meta-analysis retrieving results from the literature for -336G>A DCSIGN and -308G>A TNF SNPs demonstrating that the consensus estimates of these SNPs indicated no association with dengue severity (when compared to Dengue fever) in the overall analysis. But, a subgroup analysis in the -336G>A DCSIGN, the G allele was associated with severe dengue susceptibility in Asians (ORallele=2.77; p=0.0001; ORcarriers=2.99; p=0.0001) and protection in Brazilians (ORallele=0.66; p=0.013). In summary, our results suggest that genetic variations at CLEC5A increase the risk and regulate TNF secretion in dengue severity among Brazilians. Also, combined data of the literature suggest population-specific effect of the -336 DCSIGN SNP more prominent in Asians and in a different direction than Brazilians.

Assistencia ao cancer entre criancas e adolescentes: mapeamento dos fluxos origem-destino no Brasil / Access to pediatric cancer care in Brazil: mapping origin-destination flows / Asistencia al cancer de ninos y adolescentes: mapeamiento de los flujos origen-destino en Brasil

OBJETIVO: Analisar os fluxos de viagens de crianças e adolescentes com câncer, entre os locais de residência e serviço de saúde. MÉTODOS: Foram analisados os fluxos de viagens de crianças e adolescentes com câncer entre os locais de residência e de serviço de saúde atendidos no Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS), de 2000 a 2007. A unidade de análise foi a regional de saúde. Utilizou-se o sistema de informações geográficas e metodologia de redes por tipo de tratamento recebido (quimioterapia e radioterapia) e internações hospitalares. RESULTADOS: Foram emitidas 465.289 autorizações de quimioterapia, 29.151 de radioterapia e 383.568 de internações hospitalares de crianças e adolescentes com diagnóstico de câncer para tratamento no SUS. O fluxo dominante formou 48 redes para quimioterapia, 53 para radioterapia e 112 para internações hospitalares. A maior parte do volume de atendimento ocorreu nas regionais de saúde das 12 maiores metrópoles do País com grande relacionamento entre elas e extensa área de influência direta acompanhando a estrutura da rede urbana brasileira. CONCLUSÕES: A identificação das redes estabelecidas no âmbito do SUS para o atendimento de crianças e adolescentes com câncer mostra que a maioria dos pacientes está contemplada pelas redes estruturadas. Cerca de 10% das viagens ocorrem fora do fluxo dominante, indicando a necessidade de regionalização alternativa. Os resultados evidenciam a importância do planejamento da distribuição dos serviços de acordo com as necessidades da população usuária. .

OBJETIVO: Analizar los flujos de viajes de niños y adolescentes con cáncer, entre locales de residencia y servicio de salud. MÉTODOS: se analizaron los flujos de viajes de niños y adolescentes con cáncer entre los locales de residencia y el servicio de salud del Sistema Único de Salud (SUS), de 2000 a 2007. La unidad de análisis fue la regional de salud. Se utilizó el sistema de informaciones geográficas y metodología de redes por tipo de tratamiento recibido (quimioterapia y radioterapia) e internaciones hospitalarias. RESULTADOS: Se emitieron 465.289 autorizaciones de quimioterapia, 29.151 de radioterapia y 383.568 de internaciones hospitalarias de niños y adolescentes con diagnóstico de cáncer para tratamiento en el SUS. El flujo dominante formó 48 redes para quimioterapia, 53 para radioterapia y 112 para internaciones hospitalarias. La mayor parte del volumen de asistencia ocurrió en las regionales de salud de las 12 mayores metrópolis del país con gran relacionamiento entre ellas y extensa área de influencia directa acompañando la estructura de la red urbana brasileña. CONCLUSIONES: La identificación de las redes establecidas en el ámbito del SUS para la atención de niños y adolescentes con cáncer muestra que la mayoría de los pacientes está contemplada por las redes estructuradas. Cerca de 10% de los viajes ocurren fuera del flujo dominante, indicando la necesidad de regionalización alternativa. Los resultados evidencian la importancia de la planificación de la distribución de los servicios de acuerdo con las necesidades de la población usuaria. .

OBJECTIVE: To analyze fl ows of travel between place of residence and health care services by children and adolescents with cancer. METHODS: The flows of travel between place of residence and the health care service for children and adolescents receiving care in Brazil’s Unifi ed Health System (SUS) were monitored between 2000 and 2007. The unit of analysis was the health care district. The geographical information system data and network methodology, by type of treatment received (chemotherapy and radiotherapy) and hospital admissions were used. RESULTS: The SUS made 465,289 authorizations for chemotherapy, 29,151 for radiotherapy and 383,568 for hospital admissions for the treatment of children and adolescents with a diagnosis of cancer. The dominant fl ow formed 48 networks for chemotherapy, 53 for radiotherapy and 112 for hospital admissions. Most of the volume of treatment occurred in the health districts of Brazil’s 12 largest cities (with strong links between them and each having an extensive area of direct infl uence accompanying the structure of the Brazilian urban system. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying the networks formed by utilization of SUS facilities providing care for children and adolescents with cancer shows that overall most patients are covered by the existing networks. However, about 10% of travel occurs outside the dominant structure, indicating the need for alternative regionalization. These results show the importance of planning the distribution of services to meet the population’s needs. .

Factors associated with hospital readmission in sickle cell disease.

BACKGROUND: Sickle cell disease is the most frequent hereditary disease in Brazil, and people with the disease may be hospitalised several times in the course of their lives. The purpose of this study was to estimate the hazard ratios of factors associated with the time between hospital admissions. METHODS: The study sample comprised all patients admitted, from 2000 to 2004, to a university hospital in Rio de Janeiro State, south-east Brazil, as a result of acute complications from sickle cell disease (SCD). Considering the statistical problem of studying individuals with multiple events over time, the following extensions of Cox's proportional hazard ratio model were compared: the independent increment marginal model (Andersen-Gill) and the random effects model. RESULTS: The study considered 71 patients, who were admitted 223 times for acute events related to SCD. The hazard ratios for hospital readmission were statistically significant for the prior occurrence of vaso-occlusive crisis and development of renal failure. However, analysis of residuals of the marginal model revealed evidence of non-proportionality for some covariates. CONCLUSION: the results from applying the two models were generally similar, indicating that the findings are not highly sensitive to different approaches. The better fit by the frailty model suggests that there are unmeasured individual factors with impact on hospital readmission.

Modelling over week patterns of alcohol consumption.

AIMS: This study aims to analyze alcohol consumption patterns throughout a week, controlled by socio-demographic characteristics, and to discuss the adequacy of the complex models employed. METHODS: The sample included 496 participants, from both sexes, > or =40 years old and with 7-day dietary records. Bayesian generalized additive mixed models (GAMM) were applied using two approaches: a multinomial model, with three categories of alcohol consumption behaviour including; non-drinkers, alcohol during meals only and alcohol at any time; and a gamma model for drinkers which considered the total amount of alcohol ingested per day. RESULTS: The multinomial model captured two different patterns of alcohol consumption: a sharp increase in consumption on weekends for mealtime only drinkers, the dominant behaviour among drinkers and a linear increase from Monday towards Sunday for those who drank at anytime. The effect of higher education changed from slightly protective for mealtime only drinkers to risky for anytime drinkers. The amount of alcohol consumed presents a pattern similar to the meals-only drinking. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol consumption increased during the week. Two different alcohol consumption patterns were identified according to drinking behaviours. The methodological approach utilized was essential in uncovering these patterns.

[The effect of chronic diseases on functional status of the elderly living in the city of São Paulo, Brazil]. / A influência das doenças crônicas na capacidade funcional dos idosos do Município de São Paulo, Brasil.

The main focus of this study was the effect of chronic disease (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, heart disease, lung disease, cancer, and arthropathy) on the functional status (activities of daily living - ADL, instrumental activities of daily living - IADL) among the elderly, controlling for age, gender, living arrangements, education, and comorbidity. The analysis was based on information provided by the SABE Project, from the city of São Paulo, Brazil, including individuals 60 years of age and over (n = 1,769), from January 2000 to March 2001. A multinomial logistic regression model was used. Compared to the absence of dependency category, heart disease (OR = 1.82), arthropathy (OR = 1.59), lung disease (OR = 1.50), and hypertension (OR = 1.39) were the main diseases that affected the IADL dependency category. Lung disease (OR = 2.58), arthropathy (OR = 2.27), hypertension (OR = 2.13), and heart disease (OR = 2.10) had important impact on the IADL and ADL dependency categories. The results were statistically significant (p < 0.05).

Neurological adverse events temporally associated to mass vaccination against yellow fever in Juiz de Fora, Brazil, 1999-2005.

The identification of adverse events following immunization (AEFI) and their prompt investigation are important to allow a timely and scientifically based response to the users of immunization services. This article presents an analysis of notified AEFI cases between 1999 and 2005 and their temporal association with 2001 yellow fever vaccination campaign, AEFI notification attributed to yellow fever vaccination rose from 0.06 to 1.32 per 100,000 vaccinees in Brazil, between 1998 and 2000. During the 2001 yellow fever mass vaccination campaign held in Juiz de Fora, Brazil, 12 cases of aseptic meningitis were temporally associated to yellow fever vaccination, but clinical and laboratory data were not available to confirm nor deny causality. Epidemiological studies associated to enhanced surveillance and standardized protocols should take advantage of public health interventions like mass vaccination campaigns and implementation of new vaccination strategies in order to assess and investigate vaccine safety.

Ecological analysis of the distribution and socio-spatial context of homicides in Porto Alegre, Brazil.

Over the last decade, the number of homicides in Porto Alegre has increased to the point where external causes are now the main group of causes of death in the 5-34-year age group. Preventing these deaths depends fundamentally on identifying factors related to excess violence in population groups. The overall aim of this study is to analyse the spatial distribution of homicide victims by place of residence in Porto Alegre, the capital of the southernmost Brazilian State of Rio Grande do Sul, in 1996, in order to identify and understand the socio-spatial context. Demographic and socioeconomic indicators based on the 1991 census and 1996 population count were used to build a multivariate classification characterizing the 1851 census tracts. Homicides occurring in 1996 were located using the municipality's Geographic Information System. Four socioeconomic groups were identified, mainly differentiated by housing indicators. Small areas on the urban periphery in which slums (favelas) are concentrated presented higher homicide rates. Homicide rates were lower in the two groups with higher income and educational level. The second step was to classify the census tracts according to the homicide indicator. In this case, areas were differentiated by the number of household inhabitants per room, income, schooling, and median age. We conclude that the multivariate socioeconomic classification presents a limited capacity to identify populations exposed to homicides, suggesting that socioeconomic conditions themselves do not determine violent behaviour. On the other hand, the spatial methods allowed us to identify small areas where deaths are concentrated and whose populations should receive special attention in planning measures to prevent violent deaths.

Surveillance system of vaccine adverse events and local data analysis--the experience in a middle-sized city in Brazil, 1999-2001.

We reviewed all vaccine adverse events (VAE) notified in a middle-sized Brazilian city (n=247) to the National Immunisation Program between January 1999 and December 2001. Vaccine doses used in that period were considered for rate estimates. Aspects of the surveillance system (SS) and their influences on collected data were considered, searching for contributions of local data analysis to investigation of VAE and to the monitoring of vaccine safety. Notification rates in our study were higher when compared to national data. Changes in the notification pattern were observed following vaccination campaign periods. An increase in aseptic meningitis cases temporally associated to yellow fever vaccine was detected. The analysis of local data provided information unperceived in national consolidated data. Through this analysis we detected: events related to application technique and handling; people's perception changes on VAE; and the local SS's ability to raise new hypothesis. We suggested changes to the notification form regarding data entry criteria and analysis.

Survival of hemodialysis patients: modeling differences in risk of dialysis centers.

OBJECTIVE: Dialysis is the most common renal replacement therapy for patients with end stage renal disease. This paper considers survival of dialysis patients, aiming to assess quality of renal replacement therapy at dialysis centers in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and to investigate differences in survival between health facilities. METHODS: A Cox proportional hazards model, allowing for time-varying covariates and prevalent data, was the basic method used to analyze the survival of 11,579 patients on hemodialysis in 67 health facilities in Rio de Janeiro State from January 1998 until August 2001, using data obtained from routine information systems. A frailty random effects model was applied to investigate differences in mortality between health centers not explained by measured characteristics. RESULTS: The individual variables associated with the outcome were age and underlying disease, with diabetes being the main isolated risk factor. Considering covariates of the health unit, two factors were associated with performance: bigger units had on average better survival times than smaller ones and units which offered cyclic peritoneal dialysis performed less well than those that did not. There were significant frailty effects among centers, with relative risks varying between 0.24 and 3.15, and an estimated variance of 0.43. CONCLUSIONS: Routine assessment based on health registries of the outcome of any high technology medical treatment is extremely important in maintaining quality of care and in estimating the impact of changes in therapies, units, and patient profiles. The frailty model allowed estimation of variation in risk between centers not attributable to any measured covariates. This can be used to guide more specific investigation and changes in health policies related to renal transplant therapies.