ABSTRACT
Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) spreads by direct contact between animals, by animal products (milk, meat and semen), by mechanical transfer on people or fomites and by the airborne route, with the relative importance of each mechanism depending on the particular outbreak characteristics. Atmospheric dispersion models have been developed to assess airborne spread of FMDV in a number of countries, including the UK, Denmark, Australia, New Zealand, USA and Canada. These models were compared at a Workshop hosted by the Institute for Animal Health/Met Office in 2008. Each modeller was provided with data relating to the 1967 outbreak of FMD in Hampshire, UK, and asked to predict the spread of FMDV by the airborne route. A number of key issues emerged from the Workshop and subsequent modelling work: (1) in general all models predicted similar directions for livestock at risk, with much of the remaining differences strongly related to differences in the meteorological data used; (2) determination of an accurate sequence of events on the infected premises is highly important, especially if the meteorological conditions vary substantially during the virus emission period; (3) differences in assumptions made about virus release, environmental fate and susceptibility to airborne infection can substantially modify the size and location of the downwind risk area. All of the atmospheric dispersion models compared at the Workshop can be used to assess windborne spread of FMDV and provide scientific advice to those responsible for making control and eradication decisions in the event of an outbreak of disease.
Subject(s)
Air Microbiology , Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus/pathogenicity , Foot-and-Mouth Disease/transmission , Models, Biological , Animals , Animals, Domestic/virology , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Disease Outbreaks/veterinary , Disease Transmission, Infectious/veterinary , Foot-and-Mouth Disease/virology , Risk AssessmentABSTRACT
A simplified means of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for long-range atmospheric transport based on a K-diffusion model is presented. In a case study, model parameters are estimated by comparing with the results of long-range atmospheric dispersion model calculations using one-year numerical weather prediction model data. It is found that the estimated ensemble mean provides a reasonable first approximation to the total dry and wet deposition from the one-year continuous release.
Subject(s)
Air Pollutants, Radioactive/analysis , Atmosphere , Environmental Monitoring/methods , Radiation Monitoring/methods , Radioisotopes/analysis , Air Movements , Diffusion , Models, Statistical , Models, Theoretical , Probability , Radioactive Fallout , Risk AssessmentABSTRACT
An epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) causing a total of 23 cases in 1982-1983, primarily on the island of Funen, Denmark, was subjected to molecular epidemiological investigations. In an attempt to exploit the quasi-species nature of foot-and-mouth disease virus strains for molecular high-resolution strain identification in order to analyse the dynamics of this epidemic, full-length VP1 coding regions were sequenced for 17 isolates collected at different farms during the epidemic. The sequence information together with epidemiological information gathered during the epidemic suggests that the epidemic was caused by at least three introductions across Danish borders and one case of airborne transmission between two islands in Denmark over a distance of 70 km. The assortment of nucleotide markers among the three strains is indicative of common recombination events in their evolutionary history, and the prerequisite of co- or superinfection of animals with variant strains in turn implies that they have a common source or epidemiologically related sources originating from an area with endemic FMD.
