ABSTRACT
Background: Breast cancer (BC) screening with mammography reduces mortality but considers currently only age as a risk factor. Personalized risk-based screening has been proposed as a more efficient alternative. For that, risk prediction tools are necessary. Genome-wide association studies have identified numerous genetic variants (single-nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs]) associated with BC. The effects of SNPs are combined into a polygenic risk score (PRS) as a risk prediction tool. Objectives: We aimed to develop a clinical-grade PRS test suitable for BC risk-stratified screening with clinical recommendations and implementation in clinical practice. Design and methods: In the first phase of our study, we gathered previously published PRS models for predicting BC risk from the literature and validated them using the Estonian Biobank and UK Biobank data sets. We selected the best performing model based on prevalent data and independently validated it in both incident data sets. We then conducted absolute risk simulations, developed risk-based recommendations, and implemented the PRS test in clinical practice. In the second phase, we carried out a retrospective analysis of the PRS test's performance results in clinical practice. Results: The best performing PRS included 2803 SNPs. The C-index of the Cox regression model associating BC status with PRS was 0.656 (SE = 0.05) with a hazard ratio of 1.66. The PRS can stratify individuals with more than a 3-fold risk increase. A total of 2637 BC PRS tests have been performed for women between the ages 30 and 83. Results in clinical use overlap well with expected PRS performance with 5.7% of women with more than 2-fold and 1.4% with more than 3-fold higher risk than the population average. Conclusion: The PRS test separates different BC risk levels and is feasible to implement in clinical practice.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Statistical associations of numerous single nucleotide polymorphisms with breast cancer (BC) have been identified in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Recent evidence suggests that a Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) can be a useful risk stratification instrument for a BC screening strategy, and a PRS test has been developed for clinical use. The performance of the PRS is yet unknown in the Norwegian population. AIM: To evaluate the performance of PRS models for BC in a Norwegian dataset. METHODS: We investigated a sample of 1053 BC cases and 7094 controls from different regions of Norway. PRS values were calculated using four PRS models, and their performance was evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC) and the odds ratio (OR). The effect of the PRS on the age of onset of BC was determined by a Cox regression model, and the lifetime absolute risk of developing BC was calculated using the iCare tool. RESULTS: The best performing PRS model included 3820 SNPs, which yielded an AUC = 0.625 and an OR = 1.567 per one standard deviation increase. The PRS values of the samples correlate with an increased risk of BC, with a hazard ratio of 1.494 per one standard deviation increase (95% confidence interval of 1.406-1.588). The individuals in the highest decile of the PRS have at least twice the risk of developing BC compared to the individuals with a median PRS. The results in this study with Norwegian samples are coherent with the findings in the study conducted using Estonian and UK Biobank samples. CONCLUSION: The previously validated PRS models have a similar observed accuracy in the Norwegian data as in the UK and Estonian populations. A PRS provides a meaningful association with the age of onset of BC and lifetime risk. Therefore, as suggested in Estonia, a PRS may also be integrated into the screening strategy for BC in Norway.
