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1.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-21254839

ABSTRACT

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), responsible for coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19), is a single-stranded positive-sense ribonucleic acid (RNA) virus that typically undergoes one to two single nucleotide mutations per month. COVID-19 continues to spread globally, with case fatality and test positivity rates often linked to locally circulating strains of SARS-CoV-2. Furthermore, mutations in this virus, in particular those occurring in the spike protein (involved in the virus binding to the host epithelial cells) have potential implications in current vaccination efforts. In Rwanda, more than twenty thousand cases have been confirmed as of March 14th 2021, with a case fatality rate of 1.4% and test positivity rate of 2.3% while the recovery rate is at 91.9%. Rwanda started its genomic surveillance efforts, taking advantage of pre-existing research projects and partnerships, to ensure early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants and to potentially contain the spread of variants of concern (VOC). As a result of this initiative, we here present 203 SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequences analyzed from strains circulating in the country from May 2020 to February 2021. In particular, we report a shift in variant distribution towards the newly emerging sub-lineage A.23.1 that is currently dominating. Furthermore, we report the detection of the first Rwandan cases of the VOCs, B.1.1.7 and B.1.351, among incoming travelers tested at Kigali International Airport. We also discuss the potential impact of COVID-19 control measures established in the country to control the spread of the virus. To assess the importance of viral introductions from neighboring countries and local transmission, we exploit available individual travel history metadata to inform spatio-temporal phylogeographic inference, enabling us to take into account infections from unsampled locations during the time frame of interest. We uncover an important role of neighboring countries in seeding introductions into Rwanda, including those from which no genomic sequences are currently available or that no longer report positive cases. Our results point to the importance of systematically screening all incoming travelers, regardless of the origin of their travels, as well as regional collaborations for durable response to COVID-19.

2.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-20196402

ABSTRACT

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a highly infectious disease with significant mortality, morbidity, and far-reaching economic and social disruptions. Testing is key in the fight against COVID-19 disease. The gold standard for COVID-19 testing is the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test. RT-PCR requires highly specialized, expensive, and advanced bulky equipment that is difficult to use in the field or in a point of care setting. There is need for a simpler, inexpensive, convenient, portable and accurate test. Our aims were to: (i) design primer-probe pairs for use in isothermal amplification of the S1, ORF3 and ORF8 regions of the SARS-CoV2 virus; (ii) optimize the recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA) assay for the isothermal amplification of the named SARS-COV2 regions; (iii) detect amplification products on a lateral flow device. and (ii) perform a pilot field validation of RPA on RNA extracted from nasopharyngeal swabs. Results: Assay validation was done at the National Reference Lab (NRL) at the Rwanda Biomedical Center (RBC) in Rwanda. Results were compared to an established, WHO-approved rRT-PCR laboratory protocol. The assay provides a faster and cheaper alternative to rRT-PCR with 100% sensitivity, 93% specificity, and positive and negative predictive agreements of 100% and 93% respectively. Conclusion: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first in-field and comparative laboratory validation of RPA for COVID-19 disease in low resource settings. Further standardization will be required for deployment of the RPA assay in field settings. Keywords: Recombinase Polymerase Amplification, COVID-19

3.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-20087924

ABSTRACT

Suppressing SARS-CoV-2 will likely require the rapid identification and isolation of infected individuals, on an ongoing basis. RT-PCR (reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction) tests are accurate but costly, making regular testing of every individual expensive. The costs are a challenge for all countries and particularly for developing countries. Cost reductions can be achieved by pooling (or combining) subsamples and testing them in groups. We propose an algorithm for pooling subsamples based on the geometry of a hypercube that, at low prevalence, uniquely identifies infected individuals in a small number of tests. We discuss the optimal group size and explain why, given the highly infectious nature of the disease, largely parallel searches are preferred. We report proof of concept experiments in which a positive subsample was detected even when diluted a hundred-fold with negative subsamples. Using these methods, the costs of mass testing could be reduced by a large factor. If infected individuals are quickly and effectively quarantined, the prevalence will fall and so will the cost of regular, mass testing. Such a strategy provides a possible pathway to the longterm elimination of SARS-CoV-2. Field trials of our approach are now under way in Rwanda.

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