Geographic variation in projected US forest aboveground carbon responses to climate change and atmospheric deposition.

Forest composition and ecosystem services are sensitive to anthropogenic pressures like climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S). Here we extend recent forest projections for the current cohort of trees in the contiguous US, characterizing potential changes in aboveground tree carbon at the county level in response to varying mean annual temperature, precipitation, and N and S deposition. We found that relative to a scenario with N and S deposition reduction and no climate change, greater climate change led generally to decreasing aboveground carbon (mean -7.5% under RCP4.5, -16% under RCP8.5). Keeping climate constant, reduced N deposition tended to lessen aboveground carbon (mean -7%), whereas reduced S deposition tended to increase aboveground carbon (+3%) by 2100. Through mid-century (2050), deposition was more important for predicting carbon responses except under the extreme climate scenarios (RCP8.5); but, by 2100, climate drivers generally outweighed deposition. While more than 70% of counties showed reductions in aboveground carbon relative to the reference scenario, these were not evenly distributed across the US. Counties in the Northwest and Northern Great Plains, and the northern parts of New England and the Midwest, primarily showed positive responses, while counties in the Southeast showed negative responses. Counties with greater initial biomass showed less negative responses to climate change while those which exhibited the greatest change in composition (>15%) had a 95% chance of losing carbon relative to a no-climate change scenario. This analysis highlights that declines in forest growth and survival due to increases in mean temperature and reductions in atmospheric N deposition are likely to outweigh positive impacts of reduced S deposition and potential increases in precipitation. These effects vary at the regional and county level, however, so forest managers must consider local rather than national dynamics to maximize forest carbon sinks in the future.

Climate change could negate U.S. forest ecosystem service benefits gained through reductions in nitrogen and sulfur deposition.

Climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) impact the health and productivity of forests. Here, we explored the potential impacts of these environmental stressors on ecosystem services provided by future forests in the contiguous U.S. We found that all stand-level services benefitted (+ 2.6 to 8.1%) from reductions in N+S deposition, largely attributable to positive responses to reduced S that offset the net negative effects of lower N levels. Sawtimber responded positively (+ 0.5 to 0.6%) to some climate change, but negatively (- 2.4 to - 3.8%) to the most extreme scenarios. Aboveground carbon (C) sequestration and forest diversity were negatively impacted by all modelled changes in climate. Notably, the most extreme climate scenario eliminated gains in all three services achieved through reduced deposition. As individual tree species responded differently to climate change and atmospheric deposition, associated services unique to each species increased or decreased under future scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change should be considered when evaluating the benefits of N and S air pollution policies on the services provided by U.S. forests.

The changing nitrogen landscape of United States streams: Declining deposition and increasing organic nitrogen.

Air quality regulations have led to decreased nitrogen (N) and sulfur deposition across the conterminous United States (CONUS) during the last several decades, particularly in the eastern parts. But it is unclear if declining deposition has altered stream N at large scales. We compared watershed N inputs with N chemistry from over 2,000 CONUS streams where deposition was the largest N input to the watershed. Weighted change analysis showed that deposition declined across most watersheds, especially in the Eastern CONUS. Nationally, declining N deposition was not associated with significant large-scale declines in stream nitrate concentration. Instead, significant increases in stream dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and total organic N (TON) were widespread across regions. Possible mechanisms behind these increases include declines in acidity and/or ionic strength drivers, changes in carbon availability, and/or climate variables. Our results also reveal a declining trend of DOC/TON ratio over the entire study period, primarily influenced by the trend in the Eastern region, suggesting the rate of increase in stream TON exceeded the rate of increase in DOC concentration during this period. Our results illustrate the complexity of nutrient cycling that links long-term atmospheric deposition to water quality. More research is needed to understand how increased dissolved organic N could affect aquatic ecosystems and downstream riverine nutrient export.

Our national nutrient reduction needs: Applying a conservation prioritization framework to US agricultural lands.

Targeted conservation approaches seek to focus resources on areas where they can deliver the greatest benefits and are recognized as key to reducing nonpoint source nutrients from agricultural landscapes into sensitive receiving waters. Moreover, there is growing recognition of the importance and complementarity of in-field and edge-of-field conservation for reaching nutrient reduction goals. Here we provide a generic prioritization that can help with spatial targeting and applied it across the conterminous US (CONUS). The prioritization begins with identifying areas with high agricultural nutrient surplus, i.e., where the most nitrogen (N) and/or phosphorus (P) inputs are left on the landscape after crop harvest. Subwatersheds with high surplus included 52% and 50% of CONUS subwatersheds for N and P, respectively, and were located predominantly in the Midwest for N, in the South for P, and in California for both N and P. Then we identified the most suitable conservation strategies using a hierarchy of metrics including nutrient use efficiency (proportion of new nutrient inputs removed by crop harvest), tile drainage, existing buffers for agricultural run-off, and wetland restoration potential. In-field nutrient input reduction emerged as a priority because nutrient use efficiency fell below a high but achievable goal of 0.7 (30% of nutrients applied are not utilized) in 45% and 44% of CONUS subwatersheds for N and P, respectively. In many parts of the southern and western US, in-field conservation (i.e., reducing inputs + preventing nutrients from leaving fields) alone was likely the optimal strategy as agriculture was already well-buffered. However, stacking in-field conservation with additional edge-of-field buffering would be important to conservation strategies in 35% and 29% of CONUS subwatersheds for N and P, respectively. Nutrient use efficiencies were often high enough in the Midwest that proposed strategies focused more on preventing nutrients from leaving fields, managing tile effluent, and buffering agricultural fields. Almost all major river basins would benefit from a variety of nutrient reduction conservation strategies, underscoring the potential of targeted approaches to help limit excess nutrients in surface and ground waters.

Future climate change effects on US forest composition may offset benefits of reduced atmospheric deposition of N and S.

Climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) are important drivers of forest demography. Here we apply previously derived growth and survival responses for 94 tree species, representing >90% of the contiguous US forest basal area, to project how changes in mean annual temperature, precipitation, and N and S deposition from 20 different future scenarios may affect forest composition to 2100. We find that under the low climate change scenario (RCP 4.5), reductions in aboveground tree biomass from higher temperatures are roughly offset by increases in aboveground tree biomass from reductions in N and S deposition. However, under the higher climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) the decreases from climate change overwhelm increases from reductions in N and S deposition. These broad trends underlie wide variation among species. We found averaged across temperature scenarios the relative abundance of 60 species were projected to decrease more than 5% and 20 species were projected to increase more than 5%; and reductions of N and S deposition led to a decrease for 13 species and an increase for 40 species. This suggests large shifts in the composition of US forests in the future. Negative climate effects were mostly from elevated temperature and were not offset by scenarios with wetter conditions. We found that by 2100 an estimated 1 billion trees under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 20 billion trees under the RCP 8.5 scenario may be pushed outside the temperature record upon which these relationships were derived. These results may not fully capture future changes in forest composition as several other factors were not included. Overall efforts to reduce atmospheric deposition of N and S will likely be insufficient to overcome climate change impacts on forest demography across much of the United States unless we adhere to the low climate change scenario.

Shifts in the composition of nitrogen deposition in the conterminous United States are discernable in stream chemistry.

Across the conterminous United States (U.S.), the composition of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition is changing spatially and temporally. Previously, deposition was dominated by oxidized N, but now reduced N (ammonia [NH3] + ammonium [NH4+]) is equivalent to oxidized N when deposition is averaged across the entire nation and, in some areas, reduced N dominates deposition. To evaluate if there are effects of this change on stream chemistry at the national scale, estimates of N deposition form (oxidized or reduced) from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program Total Deposition data were coupled with stream measurements from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Rivers and Streams Assessments (three stream surveys between 2000 and 2014). A recent fine-scaled N input inventory was used to identify watersheds (<1000 km2) where atmospheric deposition is the largest N source (n = 1906). Within these more atmospherically-influenced watersheds there was a clear temporal shift from a greater proportion of sites dominated by oxidized N deposition to a greater proportion of sites dominated by reduced forms of N deposition. We found a significant positive correlation between oxidized N deposition and stream NO3- concentrations, whereas the correlation between reduced N deposition and stream NO3- concentrations were significant but weaker. Sites dominated by atmospheric inputs of reduced N forms had higher stream total organic N and total N despite lower total N deposition on average. This higher stream concentration of total N is mainly driven by the higher concentration of total organic N, suggesting an interaction between elevated reduced N in deposition and living components of the ecosystem or soil organic matter dynamics. Regardless of the proportion of reduced to oxidized N forms in deposition, stream NH4+ concentrations were generally low, suggesting that N deposited in a reduced form is rapidly immobilized, nitrified and/or assimilated by watershed processes.

Regional patterns and drivers of total nitrogen trends in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: Insights from machine learning approaches and management implications.

Anthropogenic nutrient inputs have led to nutrient enrichment in many waterbodies worldwide, including Chesapeake Bay (USA). River water quality integrates the spatial and temporal changes of watersheds and forms the foundation for disentangling the effects of anthropogenic inputs. We demonstrate with the Chesapeake Bay Non-Tidal Monitoring Network that machine learning approaches - i.e., hierarchical clustering and random forest (RF) classification - can be combined to better understand the regional patterns and drivers of total nitrogen (TN) trends in large monitoring networks, resulting in information useful for watershed management. Cluster analysis revealed regional patterns of short-term TN trends (2007-2018) and categorized the stations into three distinct trend clusters, namely, V-shape (n = 23), monotonic decline (n = 35), and monotonic increase (n = 26). RF models identified regional drivers of TN trend clusters by quantifying the effects of watershed characteristics (land use, geology, physiography) and major N sources on the trend clusters. Results provide encouraging evidence that improved agricultural nutrient management has resulted in declines in agricultural nonpoint sources, which in turn contributed to water-quality improvement in our period of analysis. Moreover, water-quality improvements are more likely in watersheds underlain by carbonate rocks, reflecting the relatively quick groundwater transport of this terrain. By contrast, water-quality improvements are less likely in Coastal Plain watersheds, reflecting the effect of legacy N in groundwater. Notably, results show degrading trends in forested watersheds, suggesting new and/or remobilized sources that may compromise management efforts. Finally, the developed RF models were used to predict TN trend clusters for the entire Chesapeake Bay watershed at the fine scale of river segments (n = 979), providing fine spatial information that can facilitate targeted watershed management, including unmonitored areas. More broadly, this combined use of clustering and classification approaches can be applied to other regional monitoring networks to address similar water-quality questions.

Major point and nonpoint sources of nutrient pollution to surface water have declined throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed.

Understanding drivers of water quality in local watersheds is the first step for implementing targeted restoration practices. Nutrient inventories can inform water quality management decisions by identifying shifts in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) balances over space and time while also keeping track of the likely urban and agricultural point and nonpoint sources of pollution. The Chesapeake Bay Program's Chesapeake Assessment Scenario Tool (CAST) provides N and P balance data for counties throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and these data were leveraged to create a detailed nutrient inventory for all the counties in the watershed from 1985-2019. This study focuses on three primary watershed nutrient balance components-agricultural surplus, atmospheric deposition, and point source loads-which are thought to be the leading anthropogenic drivers of nutrient loading trends across the watershed. All inputs, outputs, and derived metrics (n=53) like agricultural surplus and nutrient use efficiency, were subjected to short- and long-term trend analyses to discern how sources of pollution to surface water have changed over time. Across the watershed from 1985-2019, downward trends in atmospheric deposition were ubiquitous. Though there are varying effects, long-term declines in agricultural surplus were observed, likely because nutrients are being managed more efficiently. Multiple counties' point source loads declined, primarily associated with upgrades at major cities that discharge treated wastewater directly to tidal waters. Despite all of these positive developments, recent increases in agricultural surpluses from 2009-2019 highlight that water quality gains may soon be reversed in many agricultural areas of the basin. Besides tracking progress and jurisdictional influence on pollution sources, the nutrient inventory can be used for retrospective water quality analysis to highlight drivers of past improvement/degradation of water quality trends and for decision makers to develop and track their near- and long-term watershed restoration strategies.

Context is Everything: Interacting Inputs and Landscape Characteristics Control Stream Nitrogen.

To understand the environmental and anthropogenic drivers of stream nitrogen (N) concentrations across the conterminous US, we combined summer low-flow data from 4997 streams with watershed information across three survey periods (2000-2014) of the US EPA's National Rivers and Streams Assessment. Watershed N inputs explained 51% of the variation in log-transformed stream total N (TN) concentrations. Both N source and input rates influenced stream NO3/TN ratios and N concentrations. Streams dominated by oxidized N forms (NO3/TN ratio > 0.50) were more strongly responsive to the N input rate compared to streams dominated by other N forms. NO3 proportional contribution increased with N inputs, supporting N saturation-enhanced NO3 export to aquatic ecosystems. By combining information about N inputs with climatic and landscape factors, random forest models of stream N concentrations explained 70, 58, and 60% of the spatial variation in stream concentrations of TN, dissolved inorganic N, and total organic N, respectively. The strength and direction of relationships between watershed drivers and stream N concentrations and forms varied with N input intensity. Model results for high N input watersheds not only indicated potential contributions from contaminated groundwater to high stream N concentrations but also the mitigating role of wetlands.

The contribution of wildland fire emissions to deposition in the U S: implications for tree growth and survival in the Northwest.

Ecosystems require access to key nutrients like nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) to sustain growth and healthy function. However, excessive deposition can also damage ecosystems through nutrient imbalances, leading to changes in productivity and shifts in ecosystem structure. While wildland fires are a known source of atmospheric N and S, little has been done to examine the implications of wildland fire deposition for vulnerable ecosystems. We combine wildland fire emission estimates, atmospheric chemistry modeling, and forest inventory data to (a) quantify the contribution of wildland fire emissions to N and S deposition across the U S, and (b) assess the subsequent impacts on tree growth and survival rates in areas where impacts are likely meaningful based on the relative contribution of fire to total deposition. We estimate that wildland fires contributed 0.2 kg N ha-1 yr-1 and 0.04 kg S ha-1 yr-1 on average across the U S during 2008-2012, with maxima up to 1.4 kg N ha-1 yr-1 and 0.6 kg S ha-1 yr-1 in the Northwest representing over ~30% of total deposition in some areas. Based on these fluxes, exceedances of S critical loads as a result of wildland fires are minimal, but exceedances for N may affect the survival and growth rates of 16 tree species across 4.2 million hectares, with the most concentrated impacts occurring in Oregon, northern California, and Idaho. Understanding the broader environmental impacts of wildland fires in the U S will inform future decision making related to both fire management and ecosystem services conservation.

Considerations when using nutrient inventories to prioritize water quality improvement efforts across the US.

Ongoing water quality degradation tied to nitrogen and phosphorus pollution results in significant economic damages by diminishing the recreational value of surface water and compromising fisheries. Progress in decreasing nitrogen and phosphorus pollution to surface water over the past two decades has been slow. Limited resources need to be leveraged efficiently and effectively to prioritize watersheds for restoration. Leveraging recent nitrogen and phosphorus inventories for the years 2002, 2007, and 2012, we extracted relevant flux and demand terms to help identify US subbasins that are likely contributing a disproportionate amount of point and non-point source nutrient pollution to surface water by exploring the mean spatial distribution of terrestrial anthropogenic surplus, agricultural surplus, agricultural nutrient use efficiency, and point source loads. A small proportion of the landscape, <25% of subbasin area of the United States, contains 50% of anthropogenic and agriculture nitrogen and phosphorus surplus while only 2% of landscape contributes >50% of point source loads into surface water. Point source loads are mainly concentrated in urban areas across the country with point source loading rates often exceeding >10.0 kg N ha-1 yr-1 and >1.0 kg P ha-1 yr-1. However, the ability for future upgrades to wastewater treatment plant infrastructure alone is unlikely to drive further improvement in water quality, outside of local water ways, since point source loads only account for ~4% of anthropogenic N and P surplus. As such, further progress in boosting nutrient use efficiency in agricultural production, usually lowest in areas of intensive livestock production, would likely contribute to the biggest gains to water quality restoration goals. This analysis and the corresponding database integrate multiple streams of information to highlight areas where N and P are being managed inefficiently to give decision makers a succinct platform to identify likely areas and sources of water quality degradation.

Phosphorus Inventory for the Conterminous United States (2002-2012).

Published reports suggest efforts designed to prevent the occurrence of harmful algal blooms and hypoxia by reducing non-point and point source phosphorus (P) pollution are not delivering water quality improvements in many areas. Part of the uncertainty in evaluating watershed responses to management practices is the lack of standardized estimates of phosphorus inputs and outputs. To assess P trends across the conterminous United States, we compiled an inventory using publicly available datasets of agricultural P fluxes, atmospheric P deposition, human P demand and waste, and point source discharges for 2002, 2007, and 2012 at the scale of the 8-digit Hydrologic Unit Code subbasin (~1,800 km2). Estimates of agricultural legacy P surplus accumulated from 1945 to 2001 were also developed. Fertilizer and manure inputs were found to exceed crop removal rates by up to 50% in many agricultural regions. This excess in inputs has led to the continued accumulation of legacy P in agricultural lands. Atmospheric P deposition increased throughout the Rockies, potentially contributing to reported increases in surface water P concentrations in undisturbed watersheds. In some urban areas, P fluxes associated with human waste and non-farm fertilizer use has declined despite population growth, likely due, in part, to various sales bans on P-containing detergents and fertilizers. Although regions and individual subbasins have different contemporary and legacy P sources, a standardized method of accounting for large and small fluxes and ready to use inventory numbers provide essential infromation to coordinate targeted interventions to reduce P concentrations in the nation's waters.

Patterns and predictions of drinking water nitrate violations across the conterminous United States.

Excess nitrate in drinking water is a human health concern, especially for young children. Public drinking water systems in violation of the 10 mg nitrate-N/L maximum contaminant level (MCL) must be reported in EPA's Safe Drinking Water Information System (SDWIS). We used SDWIS data with random forest modeling to examine the drivers of nitrate violations across the conterminous U.S. and to predict where public water systems are at risk of exceeding the nitrate MCL. As explanatory variables, we used land cover, nitrogen inputs, soil/hydrogeology, and climate variables. While we looked at the role of nitrate treatment in separate analyses, we did not include treatment as a factor in the final models, due to incomplete information in SDWIS. For groundwater (GW) systems, a classification model correctly classified 79% of catchments in violation and a regression model explained 43% of the variation in nitrate concentrations above the MCL. The most important variables in the GW classification model were % cropland, agricultural drainage, irrigation-to-precipitation ratio, nitrogen surplus, and surplus precipitation. Regions predicted to have risk for nitrate violations in GW were the Central California Valley, parts of Washington, Idaho, the Great Plains, Piedmont of Pennsylvania and Coastal Plains of Delaware, and regions of Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota. For surface water (SW) systems, a classification model correctly classified 90% of catchments and a regression model explained 52% of the variation in nitrate concentration. The variables most important for the SW classification model were largely hydroclimatic variables including surplus precipitation, irrigation-to-precipitation ratio, and % shrubland. Areas at greatest risk for SW nitrate violations were generally in the non-mountainous west and southwest. Identifying the areas with possible risk for future violations and potential drivers of nitrate violations across U.S. can inform decisions on how source water protection and other management options could best protect drinking water.

Positive correlation between wood δ 15N and stream nitrate concentrations in two temperate deciduous forests.

A limitation to understanding drivers of long-term trends in terrestrial nitrogen (N) availability in forests and its subsequent influence on stream nitrate export is a general lack of integrated analyses using long-term data on terrestrial and aquatic N cycling at comparable spatial scales. Here we analyze relationships between stream nitrate concentrations and wood δ 15N records (n = 96 trees) across five neighboring headwater catchments in the Blue Ridge physiographic province and within a single catchment in the Appalachian Plateau physiographic province in the eastern United States. Climatic, acidic deposition, and forest disturbance datasets were developed to elucidate the influence of these factors on terrestrial N availability through time. We hypothesized that spatial and temporal variation of terrestrial N availability, for which tree-ring δ 15N records serve as a proxy, affects the variation of stream nitrate concentration across space and time. Across space at the Blue Ridge study sites, stream nitrate concentration increased linearly with increasing catchment mean wood δ 15N. Over time, stream nitrate concentrations decreased with decreasing wood δ 15N in five of the six catchments. Wood δ 15N showed a significant negative relationship with disturbance and acidic deposition. Disturbance likely exacerbated N limitation by inducing nitrate leaching and ultimately enhancing vegetative uptake. As observed elsewhere, lower rates of acidic deposition and subsequent deacidification of soils may increase terrestrial N availability. Despite the ephemeral modifications of terrestrial N availability by these two drivers and climate, long-term declines in terrestrial N availability were robust and have likely driven much of the declines in stream nitrate concentration throughout the central Appalachians.

Nitrogen deposition and climate change effects on tree species composition and ecosystem services for a forest cohort.

The composition of forests in the northeastern United States and the ecosystem services they provide to future generations will depend on several factors. In this paper, we isolate the effects of two environmental drivers, nitrogen (N) deposition and climate (temperature and precipitation) change, through an analysis of a single cohort of 24 dominant tree species. We assembled a tree database using data from U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis monitoring plots. Applying observed species-specific growth and survival responses, we simulated how forest stands in a 19-state study area would change from 2005 to 2100 under 12 different future N deposition-climate scenarios. We then estimated implications for three selected forest ecosystem services: merchantable timber, aboveground carbon sequestration, and tree diversity. Total tree biomass (for 24 species combined) was positively associated with both increased N deposition and temperatures; however, due to differences in the direction and magnitude of species-specific responses, forest composition varied across scenarios. For example, red maple (Acer rubrum) trees gained biomass under scenarios with more N deposition and more climate change, whereas biomass of yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis) and red pine (Pinus resinosa) was negatively affected. Projections for ecosystem services also varied across scenarios. Carbon sequestration, which is positively associated with biomass accumulation, increased with N deposition and increasing climate change. Total timber values also increased with overall biomass; however, scenarios with increasing climate change tended to favor species with lower merchantable value, whereas more N deposition favored species with higher merchantable value. Tree species diversity was projected to decrease with greater changes in climate (warmer temperatures), especially in the northwestern, central, and southeastern portions of the study area. In contrast, the effects of N deposition on diversity varied greatly in magnitude and direction across the study area. This study highlights species-specific and regional effects of N deposition and climate change in northeastern U.S. forests, which can inform management decision for air quality and forests in the region, as well as climate policy. It also provides a foundation for future studies that may incorporate other important factors such as multiple cohorts, sulfur deposition, insects, and diseases.

Unprocessed Atmospheric Nitrate in Waters of the Northern Forest Region in the U.S. and Canada.

Little is known about the regional extent and variability of nitrate from atmospheric deposition that is transported to streams without biological processing in forests. We measured water chemistry and isotopic tracers (δ18O and δ15N) of nitrate sources across the Northern Forest Region of the U.S. and Canada and reanalyzed data from other studies to determine when, where, and how unprocessed atmospheric nitrate was transported in catchments. These inputs were more widespread and numerous than commonly recognized, but with high spatial and temporal variability. Only 6 of 32 streams had high fractions (>20%) of unprocessed atmospheric nitrate during baseflow. Seventeen had high fractions during stormflow or snowmelt, which corresponded to large fractions in near-surface soil waters or groundwaters, but not deep groundwater. The remaining 10 streams occasionally had some (<20%) unprocessed atmospheric nitrate during stormflow or baseflow. Large, sporadic events may continue to be cryptic due to atmospheric deposition variation among storms and a near complete lack of monitoring for these events. A general lack of observance may bias perceptions of occurrence; sustained monitoring of chronic nitrogen pollution effects on forests with nitrate source apportionments may offer insights needed to advance the science as well as assess regulatory and management schemes.

Terrestrial acidification and ecosystem services: effects of acid rain on bunnies, baseball, and Christmas trees.

Often termed "acid rain," combined nitrogen and sulfur deposition can directly and indirectly impact the condition and health of forest ecosystems. Researchers use critical loads (CLs) to describe response thresholds, and recent studies on acid-sensitive biological indicators show that forests continue to be at risk from terrestrial acidification. However, rarely are impacts translated into changes in "ecosystem services" that impact human well-being. Further, the relevance of this research to the general public is seldom communicated in terms that can motivate action to protect valuable resources. To understand how changes in biological indicators affect human well-being, we used the STEPS (Stressor-Ecological Production function-final ecosystem Services) Framework to quantitatively and qualitatively link CL exceedances to ecosystem service impacts. We specified the cause-and-effect ecological processes linking changes in biological indicators to final ecosystem services. The Final Ecosystem Goods and Services Classification System (FEGS-CS) was used within the STEPS Framework to classify the ecosystem component and the beneficiary class that uses or values the component. We analyzed two acid-sensitive tree species, balsam fir (Abies balsamea) and white ash (Fraxinus americana), that are common in northeastern USA. These well-known species provide habitat for animals and popular forest products that are relatable to a broad audience. We identified 160 chains with 10 classes of human beneficiaries for balsam fir and white ash combined, concluding that there are resources at risk that the public may value. Two stories resulting from these explorations into the cascading effects of acid rain on terrestrial resources are ideal for effective science communication: the relationship between (1) balsam fir as a popular Christmas tree and habitat for the snowshoe hare, a favorite of wildlife viewers, and (2) white ash because it is used for half of all baseball bats, fine wood products, and musical instruments. Thus, rather than focusing on biological indicators that may only be understood or appreciated by specific stakeholders or experts, this approach extends the analysis to include impacts on FEGS and humans. It also lays the foundation for developing stakeholder-specific narratives, quantitative measures of endpoints, and for conducting demand-based valuations of affected ecosystem services.

Surface water quality is improving due to declining atmospheric N deposition.

We evaluated long-term surface water nitrate and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition trends for a group of nine predominantly forested Appalachian Mountain watersheds during a recent multidecadal period (1986-2009) in which regional NOx emissions have been progressively reduced. Statistical analysis showed unexpected linear declines in both annual surface water nitrate-N concentrations (mean =46.4%) and yields (mean =47.7%) among the watersheds corresponding to comparable declines in annual wet N deposition (mean =34.4%) resulting from U.S. NOx emission control programs during the same time period. Nitrate-N concentration trends were robust across a large geographical region and appeared insensitive to watershed size across several orders of magnitude-suggesting that the improvements in water quality are probably propagated to surface and estuarine waters downstream. Surface waters are thus responding to declining atmospheric N deposition in much the same way they responded to declining sulfur deposition-although only one watershed showed a 1:1 relationship. Application of a kinetic N saturation model indicated that all nine forested watersheds are exhibiting signs of N saturation as evidenced by a limited, but variable, efficiency of demand for N. Further reductions in N deposition would be expected to produce additional reductions in streamwater N loads.