ANCOC Score to Predict Mortality in Different SARS-CoV-2 Variants and Vaccination Status.

BACKGROUND: More than three years after the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic outbreak, hospitals worldwide are still affected by coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19). The availability of a clinical score that can predict the risk of death from the disease at the time of diagnosis and that can be used even if population characteristics change and the virus mutates can be a useful tool for emergency physicians to make clinical decisions. During the first COVID-19 waves, we developed the ANCOC (age, blood urea nitrogen, C-reactive protein, oxygen saturation, comorbidities) score, a clinical score based on five main parameters (age, blood urea nitrogen, C-reactive protein, oxygen saturation, comorbidities) that accurately predicts the risk of death in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2. A score of less than -1 was associated with 0% mortality risk, whereas a score of 6 was associated with 100% risk of death, with an overall accuracy of 0.920. The aim of our study is to internally validate the ANCOC score and evaluate whether it can predict 60-day mortality risk independent of vaccination status and viral variant. METHODS: We retrospectively enrolled 843 patients admitted to the emergency department (ED) of our hospital with a diagnosis of COVID-19. A total of 515 patients were admitted from July 2021 to September 2021, when the Delta variant was prevalent, and 328 in January 2022, when the Omicron 1 variant was predominant. All patients included in the study had a diagnosis of COVID-19 confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) on an oropharyngeal swab. Demographic data, comorbidities, vaccination data, and various laboratory, radiographic, and blood gas parameters were collected from all patients to determine differences between the two waves. ANCOC scores were then calculated for each patient, ranging from -6 to 6. RESULTS: Patients infected with the Omicron variant were significantly older and had a greater number of comorbidities, of which hypertension and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were the most common. Immunization was less common in Delta patients than in Omicron patients (34% and 56%, respectively). To assess the accuracy of mortality prediction, we constructed a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and found that the area under the ROC curve was greater than 0.8 for both variants. These results suggest that the ANCOC score is able to predict 60-day mortality regardless of viral variant and whether the patient is vaccinated or not. CONCLUSION: In a population with increasingly high vaccination rates, several parameters may be considered prognostic for the risk of fatal outcomes. This study suggests that the ANCOC score can be very useful for the clinician in an emergency setting to quickly understand the patient's evolution and provide proper attention and the most appropriate treatments.

Effect of COVID-19 Vaccination on the In-Hospital Prognosis of Patients Admitted during Delta and Omicron Waves in Italy.

All-cause mortality related to the SARS-CoV-2 infection has declined from the first wave to subsequent waves, probably through vaccination programs and the availability of effective antiviral therapies. Our study aimed to evaluate the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination on the prognosis of infected patients. Overall, we enrolled 545 subjects during the Delta variant wave and 276 ones during the Omicron variant wave. Data were collected concerning vaccination status, clinical parameters, comorbidities, lung involvement, laboratory parameters, and pharmacological treatment. Outcomes were admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and 30-day all-cause mortality. Overall, the final sample included 821 patients with a mean age of 62 ± 18 years [range 18-100], and 59% were men. Vaccinated patients during the Delta wave were 37% (over ¾ with two doses), while during the Omicron wave they were 57%. Vaccinated patients were older (68 vs. 57 years), and 62% had at least one comorbidity Admission to the ICU was 20%, and the mortality rate at 30 days was 14%. ICU admissions were significantly higher during the Delta wave than during Omicron (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.2-3.1), while all-cause mortality did not differ. Unvaccinated patients had a higher risk of ICU admission (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.3-3.1) and 30-day all-cause mortality (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3-2.7). Results were consistent for both Delta and Omicron variants. Overall, vaccination with at least two doses was associated with a reduced need for ICU admission. Even one shot of the vaccine was associated with a significantly reduced 30-day mortality.

Factors Associated with ICU Admission in Patients with COVID-19: The GOL2DS Score.

Background and Objectives: The COVID-19 pandemic has been shaking lives around the world for nearly two years. The discovery of highly effective vaccines has not been able to stop the transmission of the virus. SARS-CoV-2 shows completely different clinical manifestations. A large percentage (about 40%) of admitted patients require treatment in an intensive care unit (ICU). This study investigates the factors associated with admission of COVID-19 patients to the ICU and whether it is possible to obtain a score that can help the emergency physician to select the hospital ward. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively recorded 313 consecutive patients who were presented to the emergency department (ED) of our hospital and had a diagnosis of COVID-19 confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) on an oropharyngeal swab. We used multiple logistic regression to evaluate demographic, clinical, and laboratory data statistically associated with ICU admission. These variables were used to create a prognostic score for ICU admission. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) of the score for predicting ICU admission during hospitalization were calculated. Results: Of the variables evaluated, only blood type A (p = 0.003), PaO2/FiO2 (p = 0.002), LDH (p = 0.004), lactate (p = 0.03), dyspnea (p = 0.03) and SpO2 (p = 0.0228) were significantly associated with ICU admission after adjusting for sex, age and comorbidity using multiple logistic regression analysis. We used these variables to create a prognostic score called GOL2DS (group A, PaO2/FiO2, LDH, lactate and dyspnea, and SpO2), which had high accuracy in predicting ICU admission (AUROC 0.830 [95% CI, 0.791-0.892). Conclusions: In our single-center experience, the GOL2DS score could be useful in identifying patients at high risk for ICU admission.