Prevalence and Associated Risk Factor of COVID-19 and Impacts of Meteorological and Social Variables on Its Propagation in Punjab, Pakistan.

The current study identifies the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases and its association with meteorological and social variables in Punjab (densely populated province of Pakistan). To identify the COVID-19 propagation, the weekly growth, recovery, and deaths rate have also been calculated. The geographic information system (GIS) has used to determine COVID-19 impacts on gender (male/female), age groups, and causalities over an affected population (km-2) for the period of 11th March to 12th August, 2020 in each district of province. Our results show that 43 peak days (where daily positive cases were above 900) have been observed in Punjab during 27th May to 8th July, 2020. The high population density districts, i.e., Lahore and Islamabad, have been affected (five persons per square kilometers) due to COVID-19, whereas the maximum death tolls (> 50 persons per millions) have also been observed in these urban districts. The meteorological variables (temperature, humidity, heat index, and ultraviolet index) show negative significant relationship to basic reproduction number (R0), whereas daily COVID-19 cases are positively correlated to aerosols concentration at 95% confidence level. The government intervention (stringency index) shows a positive impact to reduce the COVID-19 cases over the province. Keeping in view the COVID-19 behavior and climatology of the region, it has been identified that the COVID-19 cases may likely to increase during the dry period (high concentration of aerosols) i.e., October-December, 2020 and post-spring season (April to June), 2021 in urban areas of Pakistan. This study provides an overview on districts vulnerability that would help the policy makers, health agencies to plan their activities to reduce the COVID-19 impacts.

Acute Febrile Illness Caused by Brucella abortus Infection in Humans in Pakistan.

Brucellosis is a zoonosis of great and worldwide public health concern that can cause a severe febrile illness in humans. In Pakistan, brucellosis is a critical problem in both animals and humans. This study aimed to gain insight into its prevalence and to analyze the potential risk factors of patients with acute febrile illness (AFI) of an unknown cause, at the hospitals of Rawalpindi and Islamabad in Pakistan. In total, 446 blood samples were collected from patients and screened for brucellosis using the Rose Bengal Plat Test (RBPT). All the serum samples were investigated for Brucella DNA using specific real-time PCR. Age, sex, occupation, urbanicity, socioeconomic status and history of animal contact were recorded and assessed as potential risk factors. The proportion of acute febrile illness patients for whom brucellosis could be suspected was 10.1% by the RBPT. Brucella DNA was detected in 26 (5.8%) cases and identified as B. abortus. Contact with infected animals, consumption of raw milk and socioeconomic status showed a highly significant (p ˂ 0.05) correlation with seropositivity. Elderly patients (19.7% RBPT and 12.1% PCR) and females (13% RBPT and 9.3% PCR) were of high risk of brucellosis. Patients suffering from brucellosis-related manifestations should be screened for brucellosis, especially those in contact with animals or those consuming their unprocessed products, given the increased risk. The results of this study, which highlight that Brucella abortus as an important cause of acute febrile illnesses in humans, aid the development of effective control strategies for human brucellosis in Pakistan.