The Shock Index is not accurate at predicting outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

BACKGROUND: Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) remains a major cause of hospital admission worldwide. The recent UK National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death (NCEPOD) report on severe gastrointestinal bleeding used the Shock Index to assess bleeding severity and found an association between Shock Index and mortality. However, this has never been prospectively validated as a predictor of outcome in UGIB. AIMS: To compare the Shock Index with existing pre-endoscopic UGIB risk scores in predicting outcomes after UGIB METHODS: In an international, prospective study of 3012 consecutive patients with UGIB, we compared the Shock Index with existing scores including the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS), admission Rockall score, AIMS65, and the newly described "ABC" score. Pre-determined endpoints were need for major (≥4 units red cells) transfusion, need for endoscopic therapy and 30-day mortality. RESULTS: The Shock Index was inferior to the GBS in predicting need for major transfusion (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve [AUROC] 0.655 vs 0.836, P < 0.001) and need for endotherapy (AUROC 0.606 vs 0.747, P < 0.001). The Shock Index was inferior to all other scores for 30-day mortality: for example, AUROC 0.611 vs 0.863 for ABC score (P < 0.001). Adding the Shock Index to the ABC score did not improve accuracy of the ABC score in predicting mortality (AUROC 0.864 vs 0.863, P = 0.95). CONCLUSION: The Shock Index performed poorly with AUROCs <0.66 and was inferior to existing pre-endoscopy scores at predicting major clinical endpoints after UGIB. We found no clear evidence that the Shock Index is clinically useful at predicting outcomes in UGIB. [Correction added on 20 December 2019, after first online publication: Summary section has been changed for clarification.].

Inpatient iron deficiency detection and management: how do general physicians and gastroenterologists perform in a tertiary care hospital?

BACKGROUND: Iron deficiency (ID) is often an indicator of underlying pathology. Early detection and treatment avoids long-term morbidity and allows for prompt iron repletion, avoiding ID anaemia (IDA) and the need for blood transfusion. AIM: To evaluate the management of ID in two internal medicine units (general medical (GM) and gastroenterology (GE)) in a large metropolitan hospital and compare it to international guidelines. METHODS: All consecutive inpatient admissions in the GM and GE units were retrospectively reviewed until 40 patients in each service were identified with anaemia and/or microcytic hypochromic blood counts. Patient records and electronic discharge summaries were then reviewed to assess the recognition, investigation and management of these abnormalities. RESULTS: Overall, only 60% (48/80) of the cases of microcytic hypochromic picture and/or anaemia were recognised. Cases were more likely to be detected under the GE unit, 77.5% (31/40) versus 42% (17/40) in GM (P < 0.002). Of the 31 recognised GE cases, 28 (90%) were investigated further with iron studies and/or endoscopic procedures. ID was confirmed in nearly half (5/11) of those tested; however, only 2 of 5 received iron replacement. Among GM patients, only 11 of the 17 recognised cases (64%) were investigated further. Iron studies were performed in all 11, confirming IDA in 4 (36%), all of whom received intravenous iron. A faecal human haemoglobin test was performed in two GM patients and one GE patient. CONCLUSION: There remains significant room for improvement in the recognition, investigation and management of ID in hospital practice in Australia.

Short-term changes in liver tests predict long-term mortality.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether short-term changes in liver tests (bilirubin, albumin, gamma glutamyl transferase, alkaline phosphatase, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase) predict 12-month mortality and, if so, which test is most informative. DESIGN: Retrospective review of general medicine inpatients at a tertiary hospital (2005-2012) identified non-elective admissions of minimum 7 days' duration. Patients with liver disease, malignancy, admission to the intensive care unit or inpatient mortality were excluded. Linear spline modelled the vector of intra-admission change from admission. The association between 12-month mortality and admission and intra-admission changes in liver tests was assessed by logistic regression modelling, adjusted for age, gender, comorbidity index and heart failure. RESULTS: 12-month mortality was 17% in 4160 patients analysed. 12-month mortality for patients with abnormally low albumin at admission was 5% higher per 1 g/L below 34 g/L (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.93 to 0.98, p<0.001). Albumin and ALT were the only tests for which an intra-admission change significantly predicted mortality; the predictive effects were additive. 12-month mortality was greater by 4% per 1 g/L intra-admission decrement in albumin (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.06, p<0.001) and 6% per 100 IU/L intra-admission increment in ALT (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.1, p=0.005). Intra-admission changes were superior to admission values in predicting mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in liver tests predict long-term mortality better than a single value and provide prognostic information more quickly than long-term monitoring. In the absence of known liver disease, albumin predicts long-term mortality better than transaminases. The patient whose albumin decreases in the short term is at high risk of death within 1 year, even from a normal baseline.

Falling mortality when adjusted for comorbidity in upper gastrointestinal bleeding: relevance of multi-disciplinary care.

OBJECTIVES: The understanding of changes in comorbidity might improve the management of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB); such changes might not be detectable in short-term studies. We aimed to study UGIB mortality as adjusted for comorbidity and the trends in risk scores over a 14-year period. METHODS: Patients presenting with UGIB to a single institution, 1996-2010, were assessed. Those with multiple comorbidities were managed in a multi-disciplinary care unit since 2000. Trends with time were assessed using logistic regression, including those for Charlson comorbidity score, the complete Rockall score and 30-day mortality. RESULTS: 2669 patients were included. The Charlson comorbidity score increased significantly with time: the odds of a high (3+) score increasing at a relative rate of 4.4% a year (OR 1.044; p<0.001). The overall 30-day mortality was 4.9% and inpatient mortality was 7.1%; these showed no relationship with time. When adjusted for the increasing comorbidity, the odds of death decreased significantly at a relative rate of 4.5% per year (p=0.038). After the introduction of multi-disciplinary care, the raw mortality OR was 0.680 (p=0.08), and adjusted for comorbidity it was 0.566 (p=0.013). CONCLUSIONS: 30-day mortality decreased when adjusted for the rising comorbidity in UGIB; whether this is related to the introduction of multi-disciplinary care needs to be considered.