Preventing liver disease with policy measures to tackle alcohol consumption and obesity: The HEPAHEALTH II study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Chronic liver disease (CLD) causes 1.8% of all deaths in Europe, many of them from liver cancer. We estimated the impact of several policy interventions in France, the Netherlands, and Romania. METHODS: We used a validated microsimulation model to assess seven different policy scenarios in 2022-2030: a minimum unit price (MUP) of alcohol of €0.70 or €1, a volumetric alcohol tax, a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax, food marketing restrictions, plus two different combinations of these policies compared against current policies (the 'inaction' scenario). RESULTS: All policies reduced the burden of CLD and liver cancer. The largest impact was observed for a MUP of €1, which by 2030 would reduce the cumulative incidence of CLD by between 7.1% to 7.3% in France, the Netherlands, and Romania compared with inaction. For liver cancer, the corresponding reductions in cumulative incidence were between 4.8% to 5.8%. Implementing a package containing a MUP of €0.70, a volumetric alcohol tax, and an SSB tax would reduce the cumulative incidence of CLD by between 4.29% to 4.71% and of liver cancer by between 3.47% to 3.95% in France, the Netherlands, and Romania. The total predicted reduction in healthcare costs by 2030 was greatest with the €1 MUP scenario, with a reduction for liver cancer costs of €8.18M and €612.49M in the Netherlands and France, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Policy measures tackling primary risk factors for CLD and liver cancer, such as the implementation of a MUP of €1 and/or a MUP of €0.70 plus SSB tax could markedly reduce the number of Europeans with CLD or liver cancer. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Policymakers must be aware that alcohol and obesity are the two leading risk factors for chronic liver disease and liver cancer in Europe and both are expected to increase in the future if no policy interventions are made. This study assessed the potential of different public health policy measures to mitigate the impact of alcohol consumption and obesity on the general population in three European countries: France, the Netherlands, and Romania. The findings support introducing a €1 minimum unit price for alcohol to reduce the burden of chronic liver disease. In addition, the study shows the importance of targeting multiple drivers of alcohol consumption and obesogenic products simultaneously via a harmonized fiscal policy framework, to complement efforts being made within health systems. These findings should encourage policymakers to introduce such policy measures across Europe to reduce the burden of liver disease. The modeling methods used in this study can assist in structuring similar modeling in other regions to expand on this study's findings.

Mortality and Cause of Death in Patients with Pemphigus.

All-cause and cause-specific mortality among patients with pemphigus compared with the general population is yet to be established. This study investigated overall mortality and cause-specific mortality in a large immunopathologically validated cohort of patients with pemphigus. Mortality of patients with pemphigus was compared with age- and gender-matched control subjects in the general population. All-cause and cause-specific standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were estimated. The study cohort included 245 patients newly-diagnosed with pemphigus between January 1990 and June 2016, contributing 2,679.4 person-years of follow-up. Overall, 48 deaths were observed during a mean follow-up period of 10.9 ± 8.1 years, which was more than twice the number expected (SMR 2.4; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.82-3.20). The SMRs for death due to infections (22.6; 95% CI 13.6-35.3), namely pneumonia (25.7; 95% CI 11.7-48.8) and septicaemia (8.6; 95% CI 1.7-25.0), and due to cardiovascular diseases (2.8; 95% CI 1.0-6.0) were significantly higher than expected. Overall mortality among patients with pemphigus is 2.4-times greater than for the general population, mainly due to infections.

Identification of Risk Factors for Mortality and Poor-Quality-of-Life Survival in Frail Older Women Participating in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study.

OBJECTIVES: To identify potentially modifiable factors associated with overall and poor-quality-of-life (QoL) survival in physically frail older women. DESIGN: Prospective study with 7 years of follow-up to examine mortality and, in survivors with a QoL measurement within the next 3 years, to examine poor- versus good-QoL patterns of survival. SETTING: Women's Health Initiative Observational Study (WHI OS). PARTICIPANTS: Frail older women (N = 11,070; average age 72.6, range 65-82). MEASUREMENTS: Frailty was defined using the modified Fried criteria. Study outcomes were overall survival and global QoL. Risk factors were measured at the first follow-up clinic visit for WHI OS participants between 1997 and 2001. RESULTS: Of 11,070 frail women, 1,487 (13%) died. After 2,677 survivors with poor or unknown QoL were excluded at study baseline, 3,153 (46%) reported good QoL, and 1,263 (18%) reported poor QoL at the end of study follow-up; QoL measures for 2,490 (38%) were unavailable. Older age, history of cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, poor self-rated health, body mass index less than 25.0 kg/m(2) , waist circumference greater than 88 cm, systolic blood pressure greater than 140 mmHg, high number and severity of somatic symptoms, smoking, and low education were associated with greater likelihood of poor-QoL survival. Cumulative baseline risk scores demonstrated an approximately linear increase in probability of poor-QoL survival with an increase in risk factors. The probability of poor-QoL survival was 0.19 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.15-0.22) in those with zero to two risk factors and 0.40 (95% CI = 0.35-0.44) in those with six or more risk factors. CONCLUSION: Several potentially important risk factors for aging well that can be monitored in clinical and research settings, some of which are modifiable, were identified in a large group of frail old women.