The Effect of Strict State Measures on the Epidemiologic Curve of COVID-19 Infection in the Context of a Developing Country: A Simulation from Jordan.

COVID-19 has posed an unprecedented global public health threat and caused a significant number of severe cases that necessitated long hospitalization and overwhelmed health services in the most affected countries. In response, governments initiated a series of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that led to severe economic and social impacts. The effect of these intervention measures on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic are not well investigated within developing country settings. This study simulated the trajectories of the COVID-19 pandemic curve in Jordan between February and May and assessed the effect of Jordan's strict NPI measures on the spread of COVID-19. A modified susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered (SEIR) epidemic model was utilized. The compartments in the proposed model categorized the Jordanian population into six deterministic compartments: suspected, exposed, infectious pre-symptomatic, infectious with mild symptoms, infectious with moderate to severe symptoms, and recovered. The GLEAMviz client simulator was used to run the simulation model. Epidemic curves were plotted for estimated COVID-19 cases in the simulation model, and compared against the reported cases. The simulation model estimated the highest number of total daily new COVID-19 cases, in the pre-symptomatic compartmental state, to be 65 cases, with an epidemic curve growing to its peak in 49 days and terminating in a duration of 83 days, and a total simulated cumulative case count of 1048 cases. The curve representing the number of actual reported cases in Jordan showed a good pattern compatibility to that in the mild and moderate to severe compartmental states. The reproduction number under the NPIs was reduced from 5.6 to less than one. NPIs in Jordan seem to be effective in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic and reducing the reproduction rate. Early strict intervention measures showed evidence of containing and suppressing the disease.

Estimation of E-waste Generation, Residential Behavior, and Disposal Practices from Major Governorates in Jordan.

Estimating the generation of e-waste in governorates is critically needed for sustainable and environmentally sound e-waste management in Jordan. The main objectives of the present study are to quantify and evaluate the annual e-waste generation in all governorates in Jordan and disposal practices. The present study comprises the information of e-waste as classified by the European Union Directive including six main categories (16 United Nations University key items). The survey targeted 15,883 households (12.52% females and 87.48% males), where primary data on e-waste generation and disposal methods were gathered, assessed, and quantified. Subsequently, the survey-based data collected from the study sample have been extrapolated to quantify an e-waste generation inventory for Jordan and the disposal methods using ArcGIS mapping. The study-extrapolated findings reveal that ~8,735,187 e-waste items (13 ktons) had been turned into e-waste and discarded by all households in 2018 in the 12 governorates in Jordan. Moreover, dumping of e-waste is still the dominant disposal method practiced by 58.4% of households in Jordan. The other disposal practices showed that granting of the waste EEE to others has the share of 16.6%; selling (10.7%); delivering the waste EEE for environmentally sound recycling (6.8%); and others practices represented 7.4%. Furthermore, the present study has played a vital role in e-waste awareness dissemination since the findings of the present study have been modeled and shown online by the Department of Statistics, Jordan through the link ( https://arcg.is/1KzvjO ). Finally, the challenges, barriers, and prospects of e-waste management in Jordan have been explored in the present study.

Estimation of the probable outbreak size of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in social gathering events and industrial activities.

BACKGROUND: The reproduction number (R0) is vital in epidemiology to estimate the number of infected people and trace close contacts. R0 values vary depending on social activity and type of gathering events that induce infection transmissibility and its pathophysiology dependence. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we estimated the probable outbreak size of COVID-19 clusters mathematically using a simple model that can predict the number of COVID-19 cases as a function of time. METHODS: We proposed a mathematical model to estimate the R0 of COVID-19 in an outbreak occurring in both local and international clusters in light of published data. Different types of clusters (religious, wedding, and industrial activity) were selected based on reported events in different countries between February and April 2020. RESULTS: The highest R0 values were found in wedding party events (5), followed by religious gathering events (2.5), while the lowest value was found in the industrial cluster (2). In return, this will enable us to assess the trend of coronavirus spread by comparing the model results and observed patterns. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides predictive COVID-19 transmission patterns in different cluster types based on different R0 values. This model offers a contact-tracing task with the predicted number of cases, to decision-makers; this would help them in epidemiological investigations by knowing when to stop.

Solid waste composition analysis and recycling evaluation: Zaatari Syrian Refugees Camp, Jordan.

There is a need for Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) stream characterization and composition analysis to allow for an accurate estimation of its recycling potential and for effective management of the entire system. Recycling provides employment and a livelihood for vulnerable social groups such as refugees. The aim of this paper is to determine the composition of MSW in Zaatari Syrian Refugee Camp, where approximately 430,000 Syrian refugees have passed through the camp. The representative waste samples and analysis included household waste and commercial waste produced by the refugees in the selected districts in Zaatari. The waste sampling was performed in 2015 over two seasons to ensure that the seasonal fluctuations in the composition of the waste stream are taken into consideration. Hand sorting was used for classifying the collected wastes into the categories and subcategories. The organic waste represents the main waste category with 53% of the total MSW, while plastics, textile, and paper and cardboard are 12.85%, 10.22% and 9%, respectively. Moreover, the MSW composition percentage in Zaatari Camp is similar to that in municipalities in Jordan with slight disparity. The potential recyclable materials market has been investigated in this study. Plastics and paper and cardboard have significant potential to be separated and collected for recycling purposes. Financial revenues of potential recyclables have been analyzed based on local prices. Recycling model in the camp is also proposed based on the present study findings. Consequently, these results should be taken as a baseline for all Syrian refugees camps in the Middle East, as well as, in Europe.