Characterizing urban vulnerability to heat stress using a spatially varying coefficient model.

Identifying and characterizing urban vulnerability to heat is a key step in designing intervention strategies to combat negative consequences of extreme heat on human health. This study combines excess non-accidental mortality counts, numerical weather simulations, US Census and parcel data into an assessment of vulnerability to heat in Houston, Texas. Specifically, a hierarchical model with spatially varying coefficients is used to account for differences in vulnerability among census block groups. Socio-economic and demographic variables from census and parcel data are selected via a forward selection algorithm where at each step the remaining variables are orthogonalized with respect to the chosen variables to account for collinearity. Daily minimum temperatures and composite heat indices (e.g. discomfort index) provide a better model fit than other ambient temperature measurements (e.g. maximum temperature, relative humidity). Positive interactions between elderly populations and heat exposure were found suggesting these populations are more responsive to increases in heat.

Environmental characteristics associated with pedestrian-motor vehicle collisions in Denver, Colorado.

OBJECTIVES: We examined patterns of pedestrian-motor vehicle collisions and associated environmental characteristics in Denver, Colorado. METHODS: We integrated publicly available data on motor vehicle collisions, liquor licenses, land use, and sociodemographic characteristics to analyze spatial patterns and other characteristics of collisions involving pedestrians. We developed both linear and spatially weighted regression models of these collisions. RESULTS: Spatial analysis revealed global clustering of pedestrian-motor vehicle collisions with concentrations in downtown, in a contiguous neighborhood, and along major arterial streets. Walking to work, population density, and liquor license outlet density all contributed significantly to both linear and spatial models of collisions involving pedestrians and were each significantly associated with these collisions. CONCLUSIONS: These models, constructed with data from Denver, identified conditions that likely contribute to patterns of pedestrian-motor vehicle collisions. Should these models be verified elsewhere, they will have implications for future research directions, public policy to enhance pedestrian safety, and public health programs aimed at decreasing unintentional injury from pedestrian-motor vehicle collisions and promoting walking as a routine physical activity.