Cluster analysis of blood biomarkers to identify molecular patterns in pulmonary fibrosis: assessment of a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort with independent validation.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary fibrosis results from alveolar injury, leading to extracellular matrix remodelling and impaired lung function. This study aimed to classify patients with pulmonary fibrosis according to blood biomarkers to differentiate distinct disease patterns, known as endotypes. METHODS: In this cluster analysis, we first classified patients from the PROFILE study, a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort of individuals with incident idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis or non-specific interstitial pneumonia in the UK (Nottingham University Hospitals, Nottingham; and Royal Brompton Hospital, London). 13 blood biomarkers representing extracellular matrix remodelling, epithelial stress, and thrombosis were measured by ELISA in the PROFILE study. We classified patients by unsupervised consensus clustering. To evaluate generalisability, a machine learning classifier trained on biomarker signatures derived from consensus clustering was applied to a replication dataset from the Australian Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Registry (AIPFR). Biomarker associations with mortality and change in percentage of predicted forced vital capacity (FVC%) were assessed, adjusting for age, gender, baseline FVC%, and antifibrotic treatment and steroid treatment before and after baseline. Mortality risk associated with the clusters in the PROFILE cohort was evaluated with Cox proportional hazards models, and mixed-effects models were used to analyse how clustering was associated with longitudinal FVC% in the PROFILE and AIPFR cohorts. FINDINGS: 455 of 580 participants from the PROFILE study (348 [76%] men and 107 [24%] women; mean age 72·4 years [SD 8·3]) were included in the analysis. Within this group, three clusters were identified based on blood biomarkers. A basement membrane collagen (BM) cluster (n=248 [55%]) showed high concentrations of PRO-C4, PRO-C28, C3M, and C6M, whereas an epithelial injury (EI) cluster (n=109 [24%]) showed high concentrations of MMP-7, SP-D, CYFRA211, CA19-9, and CA-125. The third cluster (crosslinked fibrin [XF] cluster; n=98 [22%]) had high concentrations of X-FIB. In the replication dataset (117 of 833 patients from AIPFR; 87 [74%] men and 30 [26%] women; mean age 72·9 years [SD 7·9]), we identified the same three clusters (BM cluster, n=93 [79%]; EI cluster, n=8 [7%]; XF cluster, n=16 [14%]). These clusters showed similarities with clusters in the PROFILE dataset regarding blood biomarkers and phenotypic signatures. In the PROFILE dataset, the EI and XF clusters were associated with increased mortality risk compared with the BM cluster (EI vs BM: adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1·88 [95% CI 1·42-2·49], p<0·0001; XF vs BM: adjusted HR 1·53 [1·13-2·06], p=0·0058). The EI cluster showed the greatest annual FVC% decline, followed by the BM and XF clusters. A similar FVC% decline pattern was observed in these clusters in the AIPFR replication dataset. INTERPRETATION: Blood biomarker clustering in pulmonary fibrosis identified three distinct blood biomarker signatures associated with lung function and prognosis, suggesting unique pulmonary fibrosis biomarker patterns. These findings support the presence of pulmonary fibrosis endotypes with the potential to guide targeted therapy development. FUNDING: None.

Feasibility and acceptability of remotely monitoring spirometry and pulse oximetry as part of interstitial lung disease clinical care: a single arm observational study.

BACKGROUND: Remote monitoring of patient-recorded spirometry and pulse oximetry offers an alternative approach to traditional hospital-based monitoring of interstitial lung disease (ILD). Remote spirometry has been observed to reasonably reflect clinic spirometry in participants with ILD but remote monitoring has not been widely incorporated into clinical practice. We assessed the feasibility of remotely monitoring patients within a clinical ILD service. METHODS: Prospective, single-arm, open-label observational multi-centre study (NCT04850521). Inclusion criteria included ILD diagnosis, age ≥ 18 years, FVC ≥ 50% predicted. 60 participants were asked to record a single spirometry and oximetry measurement at least once daily, monitored weekly by their local clinical team. Feasibility was defined as ≥ 68% of participants with ≥ 70% adherence to study measurements and recording measurements ≥ 3 times/week throughout. RESULTS: A total of 60 participants were included in the analysis. 42/60 (70%) were male; mean age 67.8 years (± 11.2); 34/60 (56.7%) had idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), Median ILD-GAP score was 3 (IQR 1-4.75). Spirometry adherence was achieved for ≥ 70% of study days in 46/60 participants (77%) and pulse oximetry adherence in 50/60 participants (83%). Recording ≥ 3 times/week every week was provided for spirometry in 41/60 participants (68%) and pulse oximetry in 43/60 participants (72%). Mean difference between recent clinic and baseline home spirometry was 0.31 L (± 0.72). 85.7% (IQR 63.9-92.6%) home spirometry attempts/patient were acceptable or usable according to ERS/ATS spirometry criteria. Positive correlation was observed between ILD-GAP score and adherence to spirometry and oximetry (rho 0.24 and 0.38 respectively). Adherence of weekly monitoring by clinical teams was 80.95% (IQR 64.19-95.79). All participants who responded to an experience questionnaire (n = 33) found remote measurements easy to perform and 75% wished to continue monitoring their spirometry at the conclusion of the study. CONCLUSION: Feasibility of remote monitoring within an ILD clinical service was demonstrated over 3 months for both daily home spirometry and pulse oximetry of patients. Remote monitoring may be more acceptable to participants who are older or have more advanced disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT04850521 registered 20th April 2021.

Deep Learning-based Segmentation of Computed Tomography Scans Predicts Disease Progression and Mortality in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

Rationale: Despite evidence demonstrating a prognostic role for computed tomography (CT) scans in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), image-based biomarkers are not routinely used in clinical practice or trials. Objectives: To develop automated imaging biomarkers using deep learning-based segmentation of CT scans. Methods: We developed segmentation processes for four anatomical biomarkers, which were applied to a unique cohort of treatment-naive patients with IPF enrolled in the PROFILE (Prospective Observation of Fibrosis in the Lung Clinical Endpoints) study and tested against a further United Kingdom cohort. The relationships among CT biomarkers, lung function, disease progression, and mortality were assessed. Measurements and Main Results: Data from 446 PROFILE patients were analyzed. Median follow-up duration was 39.1 months (interquartile range, 18.1-66.4 mo), with a cumulative incidence of death of 277 (62.1%) over 5 years. Segmentation was successful on 97.8% of all scans, across multiple imaging vendors, at slice thicknesses of 0.5-5 mm. Of four segmentations, lung volume showed the strongest correlation with FVC (r = 0.82; P < 0.001). Lung, vascular, and fibrosis volumes were consistently associated across cohorts with differential 5-year survival, which persisted after adjustment for baseline gender, age, and physiology score. Lower lung volume (hazard ratio [HR], 0.98 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.96-0.99]; P = 0.001), increased vascular volume (HR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.12-1.51]; P = 0.001), and increased fibrosis volume (HR, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.12-1.22]; P < 0.001) were associated with reduced 2-year progression-free survival in the pooled PROFILE cohort. Longitudinally, decreasing lung volume (HR, 3.41 [95% CI, 1.36-8.54]; P = 0.009) and increasing fibrosis volume (HR, 2.23 [95% CI, 1.22-4.08]; P = 0.009) were associated with differential survival. Conclusions: Automated models can rapidly segment IPF CT scans, providing prognostic near and long-term information, which could be used in routine clinical practice or as key trial endpoints.

Association study of human leukocyte antigen variants and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Introduction: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic interstitial pneumonia marked by progressive lung fibrosis and a poor prognosis. Recent studies have highlighted the potential role of infection in the pathogenesis of IPF, and a prior association of the HLA-DQB1 gene with idiopathic fibrotic interstitial pneumonia (including IPF) has been reported. Owing to the important role that the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region plays in the immune response, here we evaluated if HLA genetic variation was associated specifically with IPF risk. Methods: We performed a meta-analysis of associations of the HLA region with IPF risk in individuals of European ancestry from seven independent case-control studies of IPF (comprising 5159 cases and 27 459 controls, including a prior study of fibrotic interstitial pneumonia). Single nucleotide polymorphisms, classical HLA alleles and amino acids were analysed and signals meeting a region-wide association threshold of p<4.5×10-4 and a posterior probability of replication >90% were considered significant. We sought to replicate the previously reported HLA-DQB1 association in the subset of studies independent of the original report. Results: The meta-analysis of all seven studies identified four significant independent single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with IPF risk. However, none met the posterior probability for replication criterion. The HLA-DQB1 association was not replicated in the independent IPF studies. Conclusion: Variation in the HLA region was not consistently associated with risk in studies of IPF. However, this does not preclude the possibility that other genomic regions linked to the immune response may be involved in the aetiology of IPF.

Real-world experience of nintedanib for progressive fibrosing interstitial lung disease in the UK.

Background: Nintedanib slows progression of lung function decline in patients with progressive fibrosing (PF) interstitial lung disease (ILD) and was recommended for this indication within the United Kingdom (UK) National Health Service in Scotland in June 2021 and in England, Wales and Northern Ireland in November 2021. To date, there has been no national evaluation of the use of nintedanib for PF-ILD in a real-world setting. Methods: 26 UK centres were invited to take part in a national service evaluation between 17 November 2021 and 30 September 2022. Summary data regarding underlying diagnosis, pulmonary function tests, diagnostic criteria, radiological appearance, concurrent immunosuppressive therapy and drug tolerability were collected via electronic survey. Results: 24 UK prescribing centres responded to the service evaluation invitation. Between 17 November 2021 and 30 September 2022, 1120 patients received a multidisciplinary team recommendation to commence nintedanib for PF-ILD. The most common underlying diagnoses were hypersensitivity pneumonitis (298 out of 1120, 26.6%), connective tissue disease associated ILD (197 out of 1120, 17.6%), rheumatoid arthritis associated ILD (180 out of 1120, 16.0%), idiopathic nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (125 out of 1120, 11.1%) and unclassifiable ILD (100 out of 1120, 8.9%). Of these, 54.4% (609 out of 1120) were receiving concomitant corticosteroids, 355 (31.7%) out of 1120 were receiving concomitant mycophenolate mofetil and 340 (30.3%) out of 1120 were receiving another immunosuppressive/modulatory therapy. Radiological progression of ILD combined with worsening respiratory symptoms was the most common reason for the diagnosis of PF-ILD. Conclusion: We have demonstrated the use of nintedanib for the treatment of PF-ILD across a broad range of underlying conditions. Nintedanib is frequently co-prescribed alongside immunosuppressive and immunomodulatory therapy. The use of nintedanib for the treatment of PF-ILD has demonstrated acceptable tolerability in a real-world setting.

Genome-wide SNP-sex interaction analysis of susceptibility to idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Background: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic lung condition that is more prevalent in males than females. The reasons for this are not fully understood, with differing environmental exposures due to historically sex-biased occupations, or diagnostic bias, being possible explanations. To date, over 20 independent genetic variants have been identified to be associated with IPF susceptibility, but these have been discovered when combining males and females. Our aim was to test for the presence of sex-specific associations with IPF susceptibility and assess whether there is a need to consider sex-specific effects when evaluating genetic risk in clinical prediction models for IPF. Methods: We performed genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-by-sex interaction studies of IPF risk in six independent IPF case-control studies and combined them using inverse-variance weighted fixed effect meta-analysis. In total, 4,561 cases (1,280 females and 2,281 males) and 23,500 controls (8,360 females and 14,528 males) of European genetic ancestry were analysed. We used polygenic risk scores (PRS) to assess differences in genetic risk prediction between males and females. Findings: Three independent genetic association signals were identified. All showed a consistent direction of effect across all individual IPF studies and an opposite direction of effect in IPF susceptibility between females and males. None had been previously identified in IPF susceptibility genome-wide association studies (GWAS). The predictive accuracy of the PRSs were similar between males and females, regardless of whether using combined or sex-specific GWAS results. Interpretation: We prioritised three genetic variants whose effect on IPF risk may be modified by sex, however these require further study. We found no evidence that the predictive accuracy of common SNP-based PRSs varies significantly between males and females.

Association study of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) variants and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Introduction: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic interstitial pneumonia marked by progressive lung fibrosis and a poor prognosis. Recent studies have highlighted the potential role of infection in the pathogenesis of IPF and a prior association of the HLA-DQB1 gene with idiopathic fibrotic interstitial pneumonia (including IPF) has been reported. Due to the important role that the Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) region plays in the immune response, here we evaluated if HLA genetic variation was associated specifically with IPF risk. Methods: We performed a meta-analysis of associations of the HLA region with IPF risk in individuals of European ancestry from seven independent case-control studies of IPF (comprising a total of 5,159 cases and 27,459 controls, including the prior study of fibrotic interstitial pneumonia). Single nucleotide polymorphisms, classical HLA alleles and amino acids were analysed and signals meeting a region-wide association threshold p<4.5×10-4 and a posterior probability of replication >90% were considered significant. We sought to replicate the previously reported HLA-DQB1 association in the subset of studies independent of the original report. Results: The meta-analysis of all seven studies identified four significant independent single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with IPF risk. However, none met the posterior probability for replication criterion. The HLA-DQB1 association was not replicated in the independent IPF studies. Conclusion: Variation in the HLA region was not consistently associated with risk in studies of IPF. However, this does not preclude the possibility that other genomic regions linked to the immune response may be involved in the aetiology of IPF.

The Burden and Impact of Cough in Patients with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: An Analysis of the Prospective Observational PROFILE Study.

Rationale: Cough is a commonly reported symptom in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) that negatively impacts patient-reported quality of life (QoL). However, both the burden of cough at diagnosis and the behavior of cough over time have not been systematically described in patients with IPF. Objectives: By utilizing data prospectively collected as part of the PROFILE study, we sought to assess cough burden and the impact that this has on QoL within a cohort of patients with newly diagnosed IPF. We also reexamined the previously described relationship between cough and mortality and the association of cough with the MUC5B promoter polymorphism. Methods: The PROFILE study is a multicenter, prospective, observational, longitudinal cohort study of incident IPF. Scores on the Leicester Cough Questionnaire (LCQ) were recorded at baseline in 632 subjects and then repeated 6 monthly in a subset (n = 216) of the cohort. Results: The median LCQ score at diagnosis was 16.1 (interquartile range, 6.5). LCQ scores remained stable over the subsequent year in the majority of patients. There was a weak association between LCQ score and baseline lung function, with worse cough-related QoL associated with more severe physiological impairment. Cough scores were not associated with subsequent mortality after correcting for baseline lung function. Furthermore, there was no relationship between LCQ score and MUC5B promoter polymorphism status. Conclusions: The burden of cough in IPF is high. Although cough is weakly associated with disease severity at baseline, cough-specific QoL, as measured by the LCQ, confers no prognostic value. Cough-specific QoL burden remains relatively stable over time and does not associate with MUC5B promoter polymorphism.

Longitudinal lung function and gas transfer in individuals with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a genome-wide association study.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is an incurable lung disease characterised by progressive scarring leading to alveolar stiffness, reduced lung capacity, and impeded gas transfer. We aimed to identify genetic variants associated with declining lung capacity or declining gas transfer after diagnosis of IPF. METHODS: We did a genome-wide meta-analysis of longitudinal measures of forced vital capacity (FVC) and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO) in individuals diagnosed with IPF. Individuals were recruited to three studies between June, 1996, and August, 2017, from across centres in the US, UK, and Spain. Suggestively significant variants were investigated further in an additional independent study (CleanUP-IPF). All four studies diagnosed cases following American Thoracic Society/European Respiratory Society guidelines. Variants were defined as significantly associated if they had a meta-analysis p<5 × 10-8 when meta-analysing across all discovery and follow-up studies, had consistent direction of effects across all four studies, and were nominally significant (p<0·05) in each study. FINDINGS: 1329 individuals with a total of 5216 measures were included in the FVC analysis. 975 individuals with a total of 3361 measures were included in the DLCO analysis. For the discovery genome-wide analyses, 7 611 174 genetic variants were included in the FVC analysis and 7 536 843 in the DLCO analysis. One variant (rs115982800) located in an antisense RNA gene for protein kinase N2 (PKN2) showed a genome-wide significant association with FVC decline (-140 mL/year per risk allele [95% CI -180 to -100]; p=9·14 × 10-12). INTERPRETATION: Our analysis identifies a genetic variant associated with disease progression, which might highlight a new biological mechanism for IPF. We found that PKN2, a Rho and Rac effector protein, is the most likely gene of interest from this analysis. PKN2 inhibitors are currently in development and signify a potential novel therapeutic approach for IPF. FUNDING: Action for Pulmonary Fibrosis, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, and National Institutes of Health National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Forced vital capacity trajectories in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a secondary analysis of a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a progressive fibrotic lung disease with a variable clinical trajectory. Decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) is the main indicator of progression; however, missingness prevents long-term analysis of patterns in lung function. We aimed to identify distinct clusters of lung function trajectory among patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis using machine learning techniques. METHODS: We did a secondary analysis of longitudinal data on FVC collected from a cohort of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis from the PROFILE study; a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study. We evaluated the imputation performance of conventional and machine learning techniques to impute missing data and then analysed the fully imputed dataset by unsupervised clustering using self-organising maps. We compared anthropometric features, genomic associations, serum biomarkers, and clinical outcomes between clusters. We also performed a replication of the analysis on data from a cohort of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis from an independent dataset, obtained from the Chicago Consortium. FINDINGS: 415 (71%) of 581 participants recruited into the PROFILE study were eligible for further analysis. An unsupervised machine learning algorithm had the lowest imputation error among tested methods, and self-organising maps identified four distinct clusters (1-4), which was confirmed by sensitivity analysis. Cluster 1 comprised 140 (34%) participants and was associated with a disease trajectory showing a linear decline in FVC over 3 years. Cluster 2 comprised 100 (24%) participants and was associated with a trajectory showing an initial improvement in FVC before subsequently decreasing. Cluster 3 comprised 113 (27%) participants and was associated with a trajectory showing an initial decline in FVC before subsequent stabilisation. Cluster 4 comprised 62 (15%) participants and was associated with a trajectory showing stable lung function. Median survival was shortest in cluster 1 (2·87 years [IQR 2·29-3·40]) and cluster 3 (2·23 years [1·75-3·84]), followed by cluster 2 (4·74 years [3·96-5·73]), and was longest in cluster 4 (5·56 years [5·18-6·62]). Baseline FEV1 to FVC ratio and concentrations of the biomarker SP-D were significantly higher in clusters 1 and 3. Similar lung function clusters with some shared anthropometric features were identified in the replication cohort. INTERPRETATION: Using a data-driven unsupervised approach, we identified four clusters of lung function trajectory with distinct clinical and biochemical features. Enriching or stratifying longitudinal spirometric data into clusters might optimise evaluation of intervention efficacy during clinical trials and patient management. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research, Medical Research Council, and GlaxoSmithKline.