Population persistence under two conservation measures: Paradox of habitat protection in a patchy environment.

Anthropogenic modification of natural habitats is a growing threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services. The protection of biospecies has become increasingly important. Here, we pay attention to a single species as a conservation target. The species has three processes: reproduction, death and movement. Two different measures of habitat protection are introduced. One is partial protection in a single habitat (patch); the mortality rate of the species is reduced inside a rectangular area. The other is patch protection in a two-patch system, where only the mortality rate in a particular patch is reduced. For the one-patch system, we carry out computer simulations of a stochastic cellular automaton for a "contact process". Individual movements follow random walking. For the two-patch system, we assume an individual migrates into the empty cell in the destination patch. The reaction-diffusion equation (RDE) is derived, whereby the recently developed "swapping migration" is used. It is found that both measures are mostly effective for population persistence. However, comparing the results of the two measures revealed different behaviors. ⅰ) In the case of the one-patch system, the steady-state densities in protected areas are always higher than those in wild areas. However, in the two-patch system, we have found a paradox: the densities in protected areas can be lower than those in wild areas. ⅱ) In the two-patch system, we have found another paradox: the total density in both patches can be lower, even though the proportion of the protected area is larger. Both paradoxes clearly occur for the RDE with swapping migration.

Serious role of non-quarantined COVID-19 patients for random walk simulations.

The infectious disease (COVID-19) causes serious damages and outbreaks. A large number of infected people have been reported in the world. However, such a number only represents those who have been tested; e.g. PCR test. We focus on the infected individuals who are not checked by inspections. The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model is modified: infected people are divided into quarantined (Q) and non-quarantined (N) agents. Since N-agents behave like uninfected people, they can move around in a stochastic simulation. Both theory of well-mixed population and simulation of random-walk reveal that the total population size of Q-agents decrease in spite of increasing the number of tests. Such a paradox appears, when the ratio of Q exceeds a critical value. Random-walk simulations indicate that the infection hardly spreads, if the movement of all people is prohibited ("lockdown"). In this case the infected people are clustered and locally distributed within narrow spots. The similar result can be obtained, even when only non-infected people move around. However, when both N-agents and uninfected people move around, the infection spreads everywhere. Hence, it may be important to promote the inspections even for asymptomatic people, because most of N-agents are mild or asymptomatic.