Surrogate endpoints for overall survival in randomized clinical trials testing immune checkpoint inhibitors: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Introduction: There is debate on which are the best surrogate endpoint and metric to capture treatment effect on overall survival (OS) in RCTs testing immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). Methods: We systematically searched for RCTs testing ICIs in patients with advanced solid tumors. Inclusion criteria were: RCTs i) assessing PD-(L)1 and CTLA-4 inhibitors either as monotherapy or in combination with another ICI, and/or targeted therapy, and/or chemotherapy, in patients with advanced solid tumors; ii) randomizing at least 100 patients. We performed a meta-analysis of RCTs to compare the surrogacy value of PFS and modified-PFS (mPFS) for OS in RCTs testing ICIs, when the treatment effect is measured by the hazard ratio (HR) for OS, and by the HR and the ratio of restricted mean survival time (rRMST) for PFS and mPFS. Results: 61 RCTs (67 treatment comparisons and 36,034 patients) were included in the analysis. In comparisons testing ICI plus chemotherapy, HRPFS and HRmPFS both had a strong surrogacy value (R2 = 0.74 and R2 = 0.81, respectively). In comparisons testing ICI as monotherapy, HRPFS was the best surrogate, although having a moderate correlation (R2 = 0.58). In comparisons testing ICI plus other treatment(s), the associations were very weak for all the surrogate endpoints and treatment effect measures, with R2 ranging from 0.01 to 0.22. Conclusion: In RCTs testing ICIs, the value of potential surrogates for HROS was strongly affected by the type of treatment(s) tested. The evidence available supports HRPFS as the best surrogate, and disproves the use of alternative endpoints, such as the mPFS, or treatment effect measures, such as the RMST.

"Heterogeneity of treatment effect on patients' long-term outcome according to pathological response type in neoadjuvant RCTs for breast cancer."

INTRODUCTION: To provide evidence explaining the poor association between pCR and patients' long-term outcome at trial-level in neoadjuvant RCTs for breast cancer (BC), we performed a systematic-review and meta-analysis of all RCTs testing neoadjuvant treatments for early-BC and reporting the hazard ratio of DFS (HRDFS) for the intervention versus control arm stratified by pathological response type (i.e., pCR yes versus no). METHODS: The objective was to explore differences of treatment effects on DFS across patients with and without pCR. We calculated the pooled HRDFS in the two strata of pathological response (i.e., pCR yes versus no) using a random-effects model, and assessed the difference between these two estimates using an interaction test. RESULTS: Ten RCTs and 8496 patients were included in the analysis. Patients obtaining pCR in the intervention-arm had a higher, although not statistically significant, risk of DFS-event as compared with patients obtaining pCR in the control-arm: the pooled HRDFS for the experimental versus control arm was 1.23 (95%CI, 0.91-1.65). On the opposite, the risk of DFS-event was higher for control as compared with the intervention-arm in the stratum of patients without pCR: the pooled HRDFS was 0.86 (95%CI, 0.78-0.95). Treatment effect on DFS was significantly different according to pathological response type (interaction test p: 0.014). CONCLUSION: We reported new evidence that contributes to explaining the poor surrogacy value of pCR at trial-level in neoadjuvant RCTs for early-BC.

Sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors and quality of life in patients with heart failure: a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) are one of the cornerstones of heart failure (HF) therapy. While benefits in terms of HF hospitalizations and death are well established, their impact on quality-of-life (QoL) has not been systematically investigated. OBJECTIVE: This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to evaluate the impact of SGLT2i treatment on QoL in patients with HF, by analysing data from randomized clinical trials (RCTs). METHODS: We identified a total of 23 RCTs that investigated the role of SGLT2i on quality of life in patients with HF, irrespective of their left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). RCTs that used Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire overall summary score (KCCQ-OSS) to assess QoL and had a minimum follow-up of 3 months were included. The difference in mean change of the KCCQ-OSS between the SGLT2i group and the standard of care (SOC) group at 3 and 6 months from baseline was considered as the outcome measure. FINDINGS: Fourteen RCTs (21 737 patients) were included in the analysis. A significant improvement in KCCQ-OSS over time (p < 0.001) was observed in both patients receiving SOC and those receiving SGLT2i in addition. The pooled estimate showed a significant improvement of 1.94 points [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.41-2.46] in KCCQ-OSS mean change at 3 months and of 2.18 points (95% CI, 1.13-3.24) at 6 months from baseline, with SGLT2i compared to SOC alone, irrespective of LVEF. A greater improvement in KCCQ-OSS was observed among patients with a recent episode of worsening HF compared to those with chronic stable HF. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with HF, irrespective of their LVEF and clinical status, the addition of SGLT2i to SOC demonstrated a significant improvement in quality of life as early as at 3-month follow-up.

Role of microsatellite instability and HER2 positivity in locally advanced esophago-gastric cancer patients treated with peri-operative chemotherapy

Purpose Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) significantly improved the prognosis of patients with locally advanced gastric cancer (LAGC). Several biomarkers, including HER2 and MMR/MSI are crucial for treatment decisions in the advanced stage but, currently, no biomarkers can guide the choice of NAC in clinical practice. Our aim was to evaluate the role of MSI and HER2 status on clinical outcomes. Methods We retrospectively collected LAGC patients treated with NAC and surgery +/- adjuvant chemotherapy from 2006 to 2018. HER2 and MSI were assessed on endoscopic and surgical samples. Pathologic complete response (pCR) rate, overall survival (OS), and event‐free survival (EFS) were estimated and evaluated for association with downstaging and MSI. Results We included 76 patients, 8% were classified as MSI-H, entirely consistent between endoscopic and surgical samples. Six percent of patients were HER2 positive on endoscopic and 4% on surgical samples. Tumor downstaging was observed in 52.5% of cases, with three pCR (5.1%), none in MSI-H cancers. According to MSI status, event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) were higher for MSI-H patients to MSS [EFS not reached vs 30.0 months, p = 0.08; OS not reached vs 39.6 months, p = 0.10]. Conclusion Our work confirms the positive prognostic effect of MSI-H in the curative setting of LAGC, not correlated with pathologic tumor downstaging. Prospective ad-hoc trial and tumor molecular profiling are eagerly needed (AU)

Role of microsatellite instability and HER2 positivity in locally advanced esophago-gastric cancer patients treated with peri-operative chemotherapy.

PURPOSE: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) significantly improved the prognosis of patients with locally advanced gastric cancer (LAGC). Several biomarkers, including HER2 and MMR/MSI are crucial for treatment decisions in the advanced stage but, currently, no biomarkers can guide the choice of NAC in clinical practice. Our aim was to evaluate the role of MSI and HER2 status on clinical outcomes. METHODS: We retrospectively collected LAGC patients treated with NAC and surgery +/- adjuvant chemotherapy from 2006 to 2018. HER2 and MSI were assessed on endoscopic and surgical samples. Pathologic complete response (pCR) rate, overall survival (OS), and event-free survival (EFS) were estimated and evaluated for association with downstaging and MSI. RESULTS: We included 76 patients, 8% were classified as MSI-H, entirely consistent between endoscopic and surgical samples. Six percent of patients were HER2 positive on endoscopic and 4% on surgical samples. Tumor downstaging was observed in 52.5% of cases, with three pCR (5.1%), none in MSI-H cancers. According to MSI status, event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) were higher for MSI-H patients to MSS [EFS not reached vs 30.0 months, p = 0.08; OS not reached vs 39.6 months, p = 0.10]. CONCLUSION: Our work confirms the positive prognostic effect of MSI-H in the curative setting of LAGC, not correlated with pathologic tumor downstaging. Prospective ad-hoc trial and tumor molecular profiling are eagerly needed.

Tailoring the optimal duration of the extended adjuvant endocrine therapy in patients with early-stage breast cancer. A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Controversy exists regarding the optimal duration of the extended adjuvant endocrine treatment (ET) in patients with early-stage breast-cancer (eBC). We performed a systematic review and trial-level meta-analysis of all randomized clinical trials (RCTs) comparing a "limited-extended" adjuvant ET (defined as more than 5 but less than 7.5 years of treatment overall) versus a "full-extended" adjuvant ET (defined as more than 7.5 years of treatment overall) in eBC. METHODS: To be eligible, RCTs had to i) compare a "limited-extended" adjuvant ET versus a "full-extended" adjuvant ET in patients with eBC; and ii) report disease-free survival (DFS) hazard ratio (HR) according to the disease nodal-status [i.e., nodal-negative (N-ve) versus nodal-positive (N + ve)]. The primary endpoint was to assess the difference in efficacy of full-versus limited-extended ET, measured in terms of the difference in DFS log-HR, according to the disease nodal-status. Secondary endpoint was the difference in efficacy of full-versus limited-extended ET according to tumor size (i.e., pT1 vs pT2/3/4), histological grade (i.e., G1/G2 vs G3), patients' age (i.e., ≤60 vs > 60 years) and previous type of ET (i.e., aromatase inhibitors vs tamoxifen vs switch strategy). RESULTS: Three phase III RCTs fulfilled the inclusion criteria. A total of 6689 patients were included in the analysis, of which 3506 (53%) had N + ve disease. The full-extended ET provided no DFS-benefit as compared with the limited-extended ET in patients with N-ve disease (pooled DFS-HR = 1.04, 95%CI: 0.89 to 1.22; I2 = 18%). Conversely, in patients with N + ve disease the full-extended ET significantly improved DFS, with a pooled DFS-HR of 0.85 (95%CI: 0.74 to 0.97; I2 = 0%). There was a significant interaction between the disease nodal-status and the efficacy of the full-versus limited-extended ET (p-heterogeneity = 0.048). The full-extended ET provided no significant DFS-benefit as compared with the limited-extended ET in all the other subgroups analyzed. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with eBC and N + ve disease can obtain a significant DFS-benefit from the full-extended as compared with the limited-extended adjuvant ET.

Factors associated with the arrival of smartphone-activated first responders before the emergency medical services in Out-of-Hospital cardiac arrest dispatch.

BACKGROUND: First responder programs were developed to speed up access to cardiopulmonary resuscitation and defibrillation for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) victims. Little is known about the factors influencing the efficiency of the first responders arriving before the EMS and, therefore, effectively contributing to the chain of survival. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective of this retrospective observational study was to identify the factors associated with first responders' arrival before EMS in the context of a regional first responder program arranged to deliver automated external defibrillators on suspected OHCA scenes. METHODS: Eight hundred ninety-six dispatches where FRs intervened were collected from 2018 to 2022. A robust Poisson regression was performed to estimate the role of the time of day, the immediate availability of a defibrillator, the type of first responder, distances between the responder, the event and the dispatched vehicle, and the nearest available defibrillator on the probability of responder arriving before EMS. Moreover, a geospatial logistic regression model was built. RESULTS: Responders arrived before EMS in 13.4% of dispatches and delivered a shock in 0.9%. The immediate availability of a defibrillator for the responder (OR = 3.24) and special categories such as taxi drivers and police (OR = 1.74) were factors significantly associated with the responder arriving before EMS. Moreover, a geospatial effect suggested that first responder programs may have a greater impact in rural areas. CONCLUSIONS: When dispatched to OHCA scenes, responders already carrying defibrillators could more probably reach the scene before EMS. Special first responder categories are more competitive and should be further investigated.

SARS-CoV-2 Infection in San Patrignano, the Largest European Drug Rehabilitation Community.

BACKGROUND: Studies on SARS-CoV-2 conducted in confined settings for prolonged times allow researchers to assess how the coronavirus spreads. San Patrignano (SP), Italy, is the largest European drug rehabilitation facility. METHODS: Between 15 October and 31 December 2020, all SP residents were tested for SARS-CoV-2. We analyzed the relationships between individual characteristics and being SARS-CoV-2-positive. Three selected predictive models were used to calculate the number of expected hospitalizations. For each model, we summed the estimated individual risks to obtain the expected number of hospitalizations in our sample, and we tested whether the observed and expected numbers differed. RESULTS: Of 807 residents, 529 (65.6%) were SARS-CoV-2-positive. Of these 323 (61.1%) were symptomatic. A strong relationship was found between being positive and living connections (p-value < 0.001). No statistically significant relationship was found with age, sex, smoking history, or comorbidities. Although 9 to 17 hospitalizations were expected, no hospitalizations were observed (p-value < 0.001). No one died of COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: The peculiar characteristics of SP residents or the SP environment might at least partially explain the null hospitalization rates. Despite the extreme uniqueness of our population and despite the protected environment and all precautions that were taken, the fact that the virus was able to circulate and infect a large portion of the population highlights the fundamental role of social interactions in the spread of the disease.

Employment trajectories of young women with breast cancer: an ongoing prospective cohort study in Italy and Switzerland.

PURPOSE: Despite extensive research on cancer and work-related outcomes, evidence from longitudinal cohort studies is limited, especially in young women with breast cancer (BC). We aimed to investigate employment trajectories in young BC survivors and to identify potential factors associated with changes in work activity. METHODS: The HOHO European prospective multicenter cohort study enrolled 300 young women (≤ 40 years) with newly diagnosed BC. Women completed surveys at baseline and every 6 months for 3 years, then yearly for up to 10 years to assess, among other variables, employment status, sociodemographic, medical, and treatment data. Symptoms were assessed by the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial symptom scales and single items from the Cancer Rehabilitation Evaluation System. Univariable and multivariable multinomial logistic regression analyses identified factors associated with changes in employment status. RESULTS: Among the 245 women included in this analysis, 85% were employed at the last individual post-baseline assessment (1 to 10 years). At 5 years, women had a 29.4% probability (95% CI: 23.6-35.5) of experiencing any reduction and a 14.9% probability (95% CI: 10.6-19.9) of experiencing any increase in work activities. Being enrolled in Switzerland (vs. Italy) and reporting more trouble in performing daily activities were significantly associated with work reduction. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that most young BC survivors remain employed in the long-term. IMPLICATIONS FOR CANCER SURVIVORS: Regular evaluation of symptoms which may interfere with daily life and identification of financial discomfort is critical in providing timely and individually tailored interventions and in limiting unwanted reductions in work activities.

Avelumab plus axitinib in unresectable or metastatic type B3 thymomas and thymic carcinomas (CAVEATT): a single-arm, multicentre, phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with advanced type B3 thymoma and thymic carcinoma resistant to chemotherapy have few treatment options. We report the efficacy and safety results of the combination of the anti-PD-L1 inhibitor avelumab with the anti-angiogenesis drug axitinib in patients with advanced type B3 thymoma and thymic carcinoma. METHODS: CAVEATT was a single-arm, multicentre, phase 2 trial, conducted in two Italian centres (the European Instituteof Oncology and the Humanitas Institute, Milan) in patients with histologically confirmed type B3 thymoma or thymic carcinoma, with advanced stage of disease who had progressed after at least one line of platinum-based chemotherapy. Previous treatment with an anti-angiogenesis drug was allowed but not with immune checkpoint inhibitors. Other inclusion criteria were age 18 years or older, an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-2, progressive disease, and presence of measurable disease according to Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumours (RECIST) version 1.1. Patients received avelumab 10 mg/kg intravenously every 2 weeks and axitinib 5 mg orally twice daily until disease progression or unacceptable toxicity. The primary endpoint was the centrally assessed overall response rate according to RECIST version 1.1. Patients who received at least one cycle of treatment and had at least one CT scan after treatment start at scheduled time point by protocol were judged assessable for response and were included in efficacy and safety analyses. This study is registered with EUDRACT, 2017-004048-38; enrolment is completed and follow-up is ongoing. FINDINGS: Between April 22, 2019, and June 30, 2021, 32 patients were enrolled. 27 patients had a thymic carcinoma, three a type B3 thymoma, and two a mixed type B3 thymoma and thymic carcinoma. 29 (91%) of 32 patients had stage IVB disease and 13 (41%) of 32 had been pretreated with an anti-angiogenesis drug. 11 of 32 patients had an overall response; thus the overall response rate was 34% (90% CI 21-50); no patients had a complete response, 11 (34%) had a partial response, 18 (56%) had stable disease, and in two patients (6%) progressive disease was the best response. The most common grade 3 or 4 adverse event was hypertension (grade 3 in six [19%] of 32 patients). Four (12%) of 32 patients developed serious adverse events that were new-onset immune-related adverse events, including one grade 3 interstitial pneumonitis, one grade 4 polymyositis, and two grade 3 polymyositis. There were no treatment-related deaths. INTERPRETATION: Avelumab combined with axitinib has promising anti-tumour activity and acceptable toxicity in patients with advanced type B3 thymoma and thymic carcinoma progressing after chemotherapy, and could emerge as a new standard treatment option in this setting. FUNDING: Pfizer.

Association of Anticancer Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors With Patient-Reported Outcomes Assessed in Randomized Clinical Trials: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Importance: The association of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) with patient quality of life has been poorly explored. Objective: To evaluate patient-reported outcomes (PROs) assessed in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of immunotherapy-based treatments. Data Sources: This systematic review and random-effects meta-analysis used RCTs identified in PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, and Scopus from database inception to June 1, 2021. Study Selection: A total of 2259 RCTs were identified that assessed ICIs as monotherapy or in combination with chemotherapy or combined with another ICI and/or targeted therapy vs control groups not containing immunotherapy in patients with advanced solid tumors. Studies were reviewed independently by 2 authors. Data Extraction and Synthesis: This meta-analysis followed the PRISMA guidelines and recommendations of the Setting International Standards in Analyzing Patient-Reported Outcomes and Quality of Life Endpoints Data Consortium. Main Outcomes and Measures: The coprimary aims of the meta-analysis were (1) pooled differences between treatment groups in the mean change of PRO score from baseline to 12 and 24 weeks of follow-up and (2) pooled differences between treatment groups in the time to deterioration of PRO score. For each end point, RCTs have been analyzed according to the type of treatment administered in the experimental group: ICIs given as monotherapy, ICIs combined with chemotherapy, or ICIs in association with another ICI and/or with targeted therapies. Results: Of the 2259 identified RCTs, 34 (18 709 patients) met the selection criteria and were analyzed. In the group of 19 RCTs testing ICIs as monotherapy, the pooled between-groups difference of mean change from baseline to 12 weeks of follow-up was 4.6 (95% CI, 2.8-6.4), and the mean change from baseline to 24 weeks of follow-up was 6.1 (95% CI, 4.2-8.1), significantly favoring ICIs. The pooled difference was 1.4 (95% CI, -0.4 to 3.2) at week 12 and 2.5 (95% CI, -0.8 to 5.9) at week 24 in the group of 8 RCTs testing ICIs combined with chemotherapy and 2.1 (95% CI, -0.8 to 5.0) at week 12 and 2.1 (95% CI, -0.4 to 4.5) at week 24 in the group of 8 RCTs testing other ICI-containing combinations. The time to deterioration was significantly longer in the immunotherapy-containing groups compared with control groups in all 3 groups of RCTs evaluated (hazard ratios of 0.80 [95% CI, 0.70-0.91] for ICIs as monotherapy, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.78-1.00] for ICIs plus chemotherapy, and 0.78 [95% CI, 0.63-0.96] for other ICI-containing combinations). Conclusions and Relevance: Immune checkpoint inhibitors as monotherapy appear to have a favorable association with patient-reported quality of life and can be combined with other classes of anticancer drugs without worsening this quality of life.

Sodium nitroprusside in acute heart failure: A multicenter historic cohort study.

AIMS: Despite evidence of hemodynamic benefit of sodium nitroprusside (SNP) treatment for acute heart failure (AHF), there are limited data about its efficacy and safety. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness and safety of SNP treatment, to explore the impact of N-terminal pro-B natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) reduction on clinical endpoints and to identify possible predictors of clinical response. METHODS AND RESULTS: Multicenter retrospective cohort study of 200 patients consecutively admitted for AHF in 2 Italian Centers. Primary endpoint was the reduction of NT-proBNP levels ≥25% from baseline values within 48 h from the onset of SNP infusion. Secondary and safety endpoints included all-cause mortality, rehospitalization for HF at 1, 3 and 6 months, length of hospital stay (LOS) and severe hypotension. 131 (66%) patients experienced a NT-proBNP reduction ≥25% within 48 h from treatment onset, irrespective of initial systolic blood pressure (SBP). Left ventricular end diastolic diameter (LVEDD) was the only independent predictor of treatment efficacy. Patients who achieved the primary endpoint (i.e., 'responders') had lower LOS (median 15 [IQR:10-27] vs 19 [IQR:12-35] days, p-value = 0.033) and a lower incidence of all-cause mortality and rehospitalization for HF at 1 and 3 months compared to "non responders" (p-value <0.050). Severe hypotension was observed in 10 (5%) patients, without any adverse clinical consequence. CONCLUSION: SNP is a safe and effective treatment of AHF, particularly in patients with dilated left ventricle. Reduced NT-proBNP levels in response to SNP is associated to shorter LOS and lower risk of 1- and 3-month re-hospitalizations for HF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov. Unique identifier: NCT05027360.

Chemotherapy in patients with localized angiosarcoma of any site: A retrospective european study.

BACKGROUND: We retrospectively investigated the role of (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with primary, localized angiosarcoma. METHODS: We selected all patients with primary, localized angiosarcoma, who had received radical surgery between January 2005 and December 2019 at 33 European sarcoma reference centers. The primary objective was to compare the outcome of patients who received (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy versus those who did not, in terms of overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS). To reduce the risk of confounding due to imbalance, a propensity-score matching(PSM) was performed. Finally, subgroups analysis was performed according to tumor site, tumor size (< 50 mm or ≥ 50 mm) and patients predicted 10-years OS according to the nomogram sarculator (two different cutoff-values were applied: ≤ 33% or > 33% and < 60% or ≥ 60%). RESULTS: 362 patients were analyzed: 149 (41.2%; treated group) received (neo) adjuvant chemotherapy and 213 (58.6%; control group) did not. The median follow-up for the OS endpoint was 5.1 years (95% CI: 4.0-5.5). The OS-HR was 0.58 (95%CI: 0.40-0.83; p-value = 0.003) in the univariate analysis and 0.74 (95% CI: 0.38-1.43; p = 0.367) in the PSM analysis. The DFS-HR was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.57-0.98; p-value = 0.036) in the univariate analysis, and 0.91 (95% CI:0.56-1.48; p-value = 0.7) in the PSM analysis. The DMFS-HR was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.55-1.02; p-value = 0.065) in univariate analysis and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.53-1.61; p-value = 0.769) in the PSM analysis. Subgroup analysis revealed no heterogeneity of results in strata of tumor site. On the contrary, there was a trend for heterogeneity according to tumor size and patient's risk of death. For all the endpoints analyzed, patients with tumors smaller than 50 mm or at lower risk of death seem to have no benefit from chemotherapy, while patients with larger tumors or at higher risk of death at 10 years seem to derive substantial benefit. CONCLUSION: This large, retrospective study suggests that patients affected by > 50 mm and/or high-risk primary, localized angiosarcoma could benefit from (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy.

Evaluation of pathological complete response as surrogate endpoint in neoadjuvant randomised clinical trials of early stage breast cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate pathological complete response as a surrogate endpoint for disease-free survival and overall survival in regulatory neoadjuvant trials of early stage breast cancer. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: Medline, Embase, and Scopus to 1 December 2020. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION: Randomised clinical trials that tested neoadjuvant chemotherapy given alone or combined with other treatments, including anti-human epidermal growth factor 2 (anti-HER2) drugs, targeted treatments, antivascular agents, bisphosphonates, and immune checkpoint inhibitors. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Trial level associations between the surrogate endpoint pathological complete response and disease-free survival and overall survival. METHODS: A weighted regression analysis was performed on log transformed treatment effect estimates (hazard ratio for disease-free survival and overall survival and relative risk for pathological complete response), and the coefficient of determination (R2) was used to quantify the association. The secondary objective was to explore heterogeneity of results in preplanned subgroups analysis, stratifying trials according treatment type in the experimental arm, definition used for pathological complete response (breast and lymph nodes v breast only), and biological features of the disease (HER2 positive or triple negative breast cancer). The surrogate threshold effect was also evaluated, indicating the minimum value of the relative risk for pathological complete response necessary to confidently predict a non-null effect on hazard ratio for disease-free survival or overall survival. RESULTS: 54 randomised clinical trials comprising a total of 32 611 patients were included in the analysis. A weak association was observed between the log(relative risk) for pathological complete response and log(hazard ratio) for both disease-free survival (R2=0.14, 95% confidence interval 0.00 to 0.29) and overall survival (R2 =0.08, 0.00 to 0.22). Similar results were found across all subgroups evaluated, independently of the definition used for pathological complete response, treatment type in the experimental arm, and biological features of the disease. The surrogate threshold effect was 5.19 for disease-free survival but was not estimable for overall survival. Consistent results were confirmed in three sensitivity analyses: excluding small trials (<200 patients enrolled), excluding trials with short median follow-up (<24 months), and replacing the relative risk for pathological complete response with the absolute difference of pathological complete response rates between treatment arms. CONCLUSION: A lack of surrogacy of pathological complete response was identified at trial level for both disease-free survival and overall survival. The findings suggest that pathological complete response should not be used as primary endpoint in regulatory neoadjuvant trials of early stage breast cancer.

Screening strategies for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in type 2 diabetes: Insights from NHANES 2005-2016.

AIM: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is prevalent in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), but controversy exists on whether to screen and how to manage these patients in clinical practice. Here, we estimate the number of patients with T2DM and NAFLD in the United States that should be evaluated for advanced liver fibrosis according to proposed screening strategies. METHODS: In this cross-sectional analysis of 2940 adult patients with T2DM (projected to 15.3 million) from the 2005-2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) we applied validated noninvasive scores of liver steatosis and fibrosis to estimate the number of referrals to hepatologists. We followed two different approaches: (1) the flow-chart from the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL), Diabetes (EASD) and Obesity (EASO) guidelines; (2) a strategy recently proposed in patients with T2DM aimed at excluding advanced liver fibrosis with a negative predictive value of 100%. RESULTS: NAFLD (based on fatty liver index) was present in 78% of patients (projected to 11.9 million). According to the EASL-EASD-EASO guidelines 37.2-48.5% of patients (projected to 5.7-7.4 million) should be referred to experts, depending on the specific biomarker of fibrosis used. The second strategy, which is based sequentially on aspartate aminotransferase and Fibrosis-4 was able to exclude advanced fibrosis in 67.0% of patients. CONCLUSIONS: Screening strategies based on noninvasive scores are able to exclude advanced liver fibrosis in 50-67% of patients with T2DM. Novel biomarkers or combination of tests may be necessary to reduce the need for liver biopsy and related bleeding episodes in the remaining 33-50%.

Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Advanced Fibrosis in US Adults Across Blood Pressure Categories.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is common in patients with hypertension but controversy exists as to whether screening for this condition should be performed. Here, we evaluate the prevalence of NAFLD and advanced fibrosis in US adults across blood pressure categories and estimate the number of patients who require referral to hepatologists. In this cross-sectional analysis of 11 489 adults from the 2005 to 2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, participants were segregated as having optimal, normal, high normal, and elevated blood pressure according to the 2018 European Society of Cardiology/Hypertension guidelines. NAFLD was defined using the US fatty liver index, whereas fibrosis was assessed using the NAFLD fibrosis score, fibrosis-4, and Hepamet Fibrosis Score. NAFLD prevalence increased progressively from optimal (16.5%) to normal (34.5%), high normal (39.9%), and elevated blood pressure (50.2%, P<0.001). Patients with hypertension also showed a higher prevalence of advanced fibrosis (3%-9%, based on the specific biomarker used). When the screening flowchart from the European Association for the Study of the Liver, Diabetes, and Obesity guidelines was applied to patients with hypertension, 26.7% needed referral to hepatologists. Risk of referral was higher in Hispanic patients and those with diabetes mellitus, heart failure, and an altered urinary albumin excretion. NAFLD is highly prevalent in US adults with hypertension and a quarter of them would need to be referred to hepatologists because of a high risk of advanced fibrosis. While future studies on cost-effectiveness are needed, screening for NAFLD in these patients could be beneficial.