ABSTRACT
A weather-based simulation model, called Powdery Mildew of Cucurbits Simulation (POMICS), was constructed to predict fungicide application scheduling to manage powdery mildew of cucurbits. The model was developed on the principle that conditions favorable for Podosphaera xanthii, a causal pathogen of this crop disease, generate a number of infection cycles in a single growing season. The model consists of two components that (i) simulate the disease progression of P. xanthii in secondary infection cycles under natural conditions and (ii) predict the disease severity with application of fungicides at any recurrent disease cycles. The underlying environmental factors associated with P. xanthii infection were quantified from laboratory and field studies, and also gathered from literature. The performance of the POMICS model when validated with two datasets of uncontrolled natural infection was good (the mean difference between simulated and observed disease severity on a scale of 0 to 5 was 0.02 and 0.05). In simulations, POMICS was able to predict high- and low-risk disease alerts. Furthermore, the predicted disease severity was responsive to the number of fungicide applications. Such responsiveness indicates that the model has the potential to be used as a tool to guide the scheduling of judicious fungicide applications.
Subject(s)
Computer Simulation , Cucurbita/microbiology , Fungicides, Industrial/administration & dosage , Models, Theoretical , Plant Diseases/microbiology , Plant Diseases/prevention & control , Time FactorsABSTRACT
ABSTRACT The timing of maturation of pseudothecia and discharge of ascospores of the blackleg fungus (Leptosphaeria maculans) is critical in relation to infection early in the cropping season of canola. During 1998 to 2000, development of pseudothecia was investigated on residues of the previous year's canola crop collected from four agroclimatically different locations: Mount Barker (southern high rainfall), Wongan Hills (central medium rainfall), Merredin (central low rainfall), and East Chapman (northern low rainfall) in Western Australia. The pseudothecia matured on residues at different times after harvest in various regions. In general, pseudothecia maturity occurred earlier in the high-rainfall areas than in medium- and low-rainfall areas. An ascospore discharge pattern was investigated from residues of crop from the previous year (6-month-old residues) at three locations-Mount Barker, Wongan Hills, and East Chapman in Western Australia-and from 18-month-old residues that were burnt and raked in the previous year at Mount Barker and East Chapman. Ascospore discharge commenced earlier in high-rainfall (>450 mm) areas (Mount Barker) and late in northern low-rainfall (<325 mm) areas (East Chapman). The major ascospore showers took place during May (late autumn) and June (early winter) at Mount Barker and during July and August (mid- to late winter) at East Chapman. The number of ascospores discharged was extremely low at East Chapman compared with Mount Barker. At both locations, the number of ascospores discharged from 18-month-old residues that were raked and burnt in the previous year were only approximately 10% of those discharged from previous year's residues left undisturbed. The discharge of ascospores on any given day was negatively correlated with accumulated temperatures, maximum temperature, evaporation, minimum and maximum soil temperatures, and solar radiation and was positively correlated with the minimum temperature, rain, and minimum relative humidity. This is the first report describing how pseudothecia mature on residues in different rainfall areas in Western Australia, and it potentially can be used in developing a forecasting system to avoid the synchronization of major ascospore showers with the maximum susceptibility period of canola seedlings.
ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT A simple model has been developed to predict the onset of pseudothecia maturity and seasonal ascospore showers in relation to blackleg disease in canola, caused by the fungus Leptosphaeria maculans. The model considers a combination of two weather factors, daily mean temperature and daily total rainfall, to drive progress of maturity of pseudothecia on the infested canola stubble left from past crops. Each day is categorized as suitable or not suitable for progress of the maturation process. The onset of pseudothecia maturity occurs when approximately 43 suitable days have occurred. Following the onset of maturity, ascospore showers are triggered when daily rainfall exceeds a threshold. The model satisfactorily predicted the timing of the onset of pseudothecia maturity when tested with 3 years of field observations at four locations in Western Australia, which characteristically has a Mediterranean climate. The model also agreed reasonably well with the daily pattern of ascospore release observed in two locations. Sensitivity analysis was performed to show the relative importance of the parameters that describe the onset of pseudothecia maturity.
ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT A spatiotemporal model has been developed to simulate the spread of anthracnose, initiated by infected seed, in a lupin field. The model quantifies the loss of healthy growing points of lupin in all 1-m(2) subunits of a field throughout a growing season. The development of growing points is modeled as a function of temperature using a 1-day time step, and disease-induced compensatory growth is accounted for. Dispersal of spores is simulated explicitly using Monte Carlo techniques. Spread of spores occurs during rainfall events on a 1-h time step. The distance traveled by spores is partially dependent on wind speed and is generated by adding the values selected from half-Cauchy distributions. The direction of travel of the spores is influenced by wind direction. The model has been employed to produce a theoretical assessment of damage from disease in two environments at five levels of seed infection. It was calculated that in a susceptible lupin cultivar with a 0.01% initial seed infection, anthracnose would cause approximately 15% loss of healthy growing points in a high rainfall environment in Western Australia. In a low rainfall environment, similar damage would be unlikely even with a much higher (1%) level of seed infection.
