Population dynamics of sugarcane borers, Diatraea spp., under different climatic scenarios in Colombia.

Seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns on a global scale are main factors to which insects and plants adapt through natural selection, although periodic outbreaks in insect populations may occur in areas where they had not been previously reported, a phenomenon considered as a consequence of global warming. In this study, we estimate the distribution of sugarcane borers, Diatraea spp., under different climate scenarios (rcp26, rcp45, rcp60 and rcp85.) Insects were collected weekly in four sugarcane fields from four different towns in the department of Caldas (Colombia) during 2017, and also in several sugarcane fields in the Cauca River Valley (CRV) between 2010 and 2017. The influence of climatic variables on different agro-ecological zones of the CRV sugarcane fields was defined by climatic data between 2010 and 2017 (maximum and minimum daily temperatures, and accumulated precipitation). The estimate of an optimal niche for Diatraea spp. includes temperatures between 20°C and 23°C, accumulated annual rainfall between 1200 and 1500 mm, dry months with precipitations below 50 mm, slopes of less than 0.05 degrees, crop heterogeneity with an index of 0.2 and primary production values of 1.0. Data suggests Diatraea population is considerably influenced by adverse climate change effects, under the premise of an increase in local and global temperatures, reducing its population niches as well as the number of individuals.

Comparison of air temperature measured in a vineyard canopy and at a standard weather station.

The complex environment within a crop canopy leads to a high variability of the air temperature within the canopy, and, therefore, air temperature measured at a weather station (WS) does not represent the internal energy within a crop. The objectives of this study were to quantify the difference between the air temperature measured at a standard WS and the air temperature within a six-year-old vineyard (cv. Chardonnay) and to determine the degree of uncertainty associated with the assumption that there is no difference between the two temperatures when air temperature is used as input in grapevine models. Thermistors and thermocouples were installed within the vine canopy at heights of 0.5 m and 1.2 m above the soil surface and immediately adjacent to the berry clusters. In the middle of the clusters sensors were installed to determine the temperature of the air surrounding the clusters facing east and west. The data were recorded within the canopy from December 2015 to June 2017 as well as at the standard WS that was installed close to the vineyard (410 m). Significant differences were found between the air temperatures measured at the WS and those within the vineyard during the summer when the average daily minimum air temperature within the canopy was 1.2°C less than at the WS and the average daily maximum air temperature in the canopy was 2.0°C higher than at the WS. The mean maximum air temperature measured in the clusters facing east was 1.5°C higher and west 4.0°C higher than the temperature measured at the WS. Therefore, models that assume that air temperature measured at a weather station is similar to air temperature measured in the vineyard canopy could have greater uncertainty than models that consider the temperature within the canopy.