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1.
PLoS One ; 18(6): e0286643, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37289738

ABSTRACT

The prediction of the number of infected and dead due to COVID-19 has challenged scientists and government bodies, prompting them to formulate public policies to control the virus' spread and public health emergency worldwide. In this sense, we propose a hybrid method that combines the SIRD mathematical model, whose parameters are estimated via Bayesian inference with a seasonal ARIMA model. Our approach considers that notifications of both, infections and deaths are realizations of a time series process, so that components such as non-stationarity, trend, autocorrelation and/or stochastic seasonal patterns, among others, must be taken into account in the fitting of any mathematical model. The method is applied to data from two Colombian cities, and as hypothesized, the prediction outperforms the obtained with the fit of only the SIRD model. In addition, a simulation study is presented to assess the quality of the estimators of SIRD model in the inverse problem solution.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , Bayes Theorem , Colombia/epidemiology , Forecasting , Models, Theoretical
2.
Rev Soc Bras Med Trop ; 45(3): 313-7, 2012 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22760128

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Leishmaniasis is an infectious and parasitic zoonotic, non-contagious, vector-borne disease caused by protozoa of the genus Leishmania. In Brazil, the major vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum chagasi (Cunha & Chagas, 1934) is Lutzomyia longipalpis. Barra do Garças, State of Mato Grosso, was designated as a priority area by the Brazilian Ministry of Health for american visceral leishmaniasis, and it is important to identify the vector species present in this municipality. Our objective was to raise sandflies and study the influence of environmental variables on the vector density of Lutzomyia longipalpis. METHODS: We performed entomological monitoring in 3 districts using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light traps and recorded human cases of american visceral leishmaniasis in the city. We calculated the relative frequency and richness of sandflies and applied a transfer function model to the vector density correlate with relative humidity. RESULTS: The sandfly population was composed of 2 genera and 27 species, totaling 8,097 individuals. Monitoring identified Lutzomyia longipalpis (44%), followed by Lutzomyia lenti (18.9%), Lutzomyia whitmani (13.9%), Lutzomyia carmelinoi (9.1%), Lutzomyia evandroi (5.1%), Lutzomyia termitophila (3.3%), Lutzomyia sordellii (1.9%), and 20 other species (<4%). The male:female ratio was 3.5:1. We observed high species diversity (Dα = 6.65). Lutzomyia longipalpis showed occurrence peaks during the rainy season; there was a temporal correlation with humidity, but not with frequency or temperature. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of Lutzomyia longipalpis in the urban area of Barra do Garças underscores the changing disease profile, which was previously restricted to the wild environment.


Subject(s)
Ecosystem , Insect Vectors/classification , Psychodidae/classification , Animals , Brazil , Female , Humans , Humidity , Leishmaniasis/transmission , Male , Population Density , Rain , Seasons , Temperature
3.
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop ; 45(3): 313-317, May-June 2012. graf, mapas, tab
Article in English | LILACS | ID: lil-640427

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Leishmaniasis is an infectious and parasitic zoonotic, non-contagious, vector-borne disease caused by protozoa of the genus Leishmania. In Brazil, the major vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum chagasi (Cunha & Chagas, 1934) is Lutzomyia longipalpis. Barra do Garças, State of Mato Grosso, was designated as a priority area by the Brazilian Ministry of Health for american visceral leishmaniasis, and it is important to identify the vector species present in this municipality. Our objective was to raise sandflies and study the influence of environmental variables on the vector density of Lutzomyia longipalpis. METHODS: We performed entomological monitoring in 3 districts using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light traps and recorded human cases of american visceral leishmaniasis in the city. We calculated the relative frequency and richness of sandflies and applied a transfer function model to the vector density correlate with relative humidity. RESULTS: The sandfly population was composed of 2 genera and 27 species, totaling 8,097 individuals. Monitoring identified Lutzomyia longipalpis (44%), followed by Lutzomyia lenti (18.9%), Lutzomyia whitmani (13.9%), Lutzomyia carmelinoi (9.1%), Lutzomyia evandroi (5.1%), Lutzomyia termitophila (3.3%), Lutzomyia sordellii (1.9%), and 20 other species (<4%). The male:female ratio was 3.5:1. We observed high species diversity (Dα = 6.65). Lutzomyia longipalpis showed occurrence peaks during the rainy season; there was a temporal correlation with humidity, but not with frequency or temperature. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of Lutzomyia longipalpis in the urban area of Barra do Garças underscores the changing disease profile, which was previously restricted to the wild environment.


INTRODUÇÃO:Leishmanioses são doenças infecciosas e parasitárias de caráter zoonótico, não-contagiosas, transmitidas por vetores, causada por protozoários do gênero Leishmania. No Brasil, o principal vetor da Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum chagasi (Cunha & Chagas, 1934) é o Lutzomyia longipalpis. Barra do Garças, no Estado de Mato Grosso, é prioritária pelo Ministério da Saúde para a leishmaniose visceral americana, sendo importante conhecer as espécies de vetores presentes no município. O objetivo foi levantar os flebotomíneos e estudar a influência das variáveis ambientais sobre a densidade vetorial de L. longipalpis. MÉTODOS: Realizou-se um monitoramento entomológico em três bairros com registro de casos humanos de leishmaniose visceral americana. Utilizando armadilhas luminosas CDC, calculou-se a frequência relativa e riqueza de flebotomíneos e aplicou-se um modelo de função de transferência para verificar a correlação da densidade vetorial com a umidade relativa do ar. RESULTADOS: A fauna de flebotomíneos foi composta por 2 gêneros e 27 espécies, totalizando 8.097 indivíduos. No monitoramento prevaleceu L. longipalpis (44%), seguida por L. lenti (18,9%), L. whitmani (13,9%), L. carmelinoi (9,1%), L. evandroi (5,1%), L. termitophila (3,3%), L. sordellii (1,9%) e outras vinte espécies (abaixo de 4%). A proporção de machos para fêmeas foi 3,5:1. Observou-se uma alta diversidade de espécies (Dα=6,65). L. longipalpis apresentou picos de ocorrência durante a estação chuvosa; não havendo correlação temporal entre sua frequência e temperatura, mas sim com a umidade relativa do ar. CONCLUSÕES: A presença de L. longipalpis na área urbana de Barra do Garças, MT destaca a mudança do perfil da doença, antes restrita ao ambiente silvestre.


Subject(s)
Animals , Female , Humans , Male , Ecosystem , Insect Vectors/classification , Psychodidae/classification , Brazil , Humidity , Leishmaniasis/transmission , Population Density , Rain , Seasons , Temperature
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