Reproductive inequality in humans and other mammals.

To address claims of human exceptionalism, we determine where humans fit within the greater mammalian distribution of reproductive inequality. We show that humans exhibit lower reproductive skew (i.e., inequality in the number of surviving offspring) among males and smaller sex differences in reproductive skew than most other mammals, while nevertheless falling within the mammalian range. Additionally, female reproductive skew is higher in polygynous human populations than in polygynous nonhumans mammals on average. This patterning of skew can be attributed in part to the prevalence of monogamy in humans compared to the predominance of polygyny in nonhuman mammals, to the limited degree of polygyny in the human societies that practice it, and to the importance of unequally held rival resources to women's fitness. The muted reproductive inequality observed in humans appears to be linked to several unusual characteristics of our species-including high levels of cooperation among males, high dependence on unequally held rival resources, complementarities between maternal and paternal investment, as well as social and legal institutions that enforce monogamous norms.

Identifying socioeconomic and biophysical factors driving forest loss in protected areas.

Protected areas (PAs) are a commonly used strategy to confront forest conversion and biodiversity loss. Although determining drivers of forest loss is central to conservation success, understanding of them is limited by conventional modeling assumptions. We used random forest regression to evaluate potential drivers of deforestation in PAs in Mexico, while accounting for nonlinear relationships and higher order interactions underlying deforestation processes. Socioeconomic drivers (e.g., road density, human population density) and underlying biophysical conditions (e.g., precipitation, distance to water, elevation, slope) were stronger predictors of forest loss than PA characteristics, such as age, type, and management effectiveness. Within PA characteristics, variables reflecting collaborative and equitable management and PA size were the strongest predictors of forest loss, albeit with less explanatory power than socioeconomic and biophysical variables. In contrast to previously used methods, which typically have been based on the assumption of linear relationships, we found that the associations between most predictors and forest loss are nonlinear. Our results can inform decisions on the allocation of PA resources by strengthening management in PAs with the highest risk of deforestation and help preemptively protect key biodiversity areas that may be vulnerable to deforestation in the future.

Identificación de los factores biofísicos y socioeconómicos que impulsan la pérdida de bosques en las áreas protegidas Resumen Las áreas protegidas son una estrategia de uso común para hacer frente a la conversión forestal y la pérdida de biodiversidad. Aunque determinar los factores que impulsan la pérdida de bosques es fundamental para el éxito de la conservación, su comprensión se ve limitada por los supuestos de modelación convencionales. Utilizamos la regresión de bosques aleatorios para evaluar los posibles impulsores de la deforestación en las áreas protegidas de México, considerando las relaciones no lineales y las interacciones de orden superior que subyacen a los procesos de deforestación. Los impulsores socioeconómicos (densidad de carreteras, densidad de población humana) y las condiciones biofísicas subyacentes (precipitaciones, distancia al agua, elevación, pendiente) fueron predictores más fuertes de la pérdida de bosques que las características de las áreas protegidas, como la edad, el tipo y la efectividad de la gestión. Dentro de las características de las áreas protegidas, las variables que reflejan una gestión colaborativa y equitativa y el tamaño del área protegida fueron los predictores más potentes de la pérdida de bosques, aunque con menor poder explicativo que las variables socioeconómicas y biofísicas. A diferencia de los métodos utilizados anteriormente, que suelen basarse en el supuesto de relaciones lineales, observamos que las asociaciones entre la mayoría de los predictores y la pérdida de bosques no son lineales. Nuestros resultados pueden servir de base para la toma de decisiones sobre la asignación de los recursos para las áreas protegidas, reforzando la gestión en las zonas protegidas con mayor riesgo de deforestación y ayudando a proteger de forma preventiva zonas clave para la biodiversidad que pueden ser vulnerables a la deforestación en el futuro.

Wildlife impacts and changing climate pose compounding threats to human food security.

High-level policy debates surrounding elephant management often dominate global conservation headlines, yet realities for people living with wildlife are not adequately incorporated into policymaking or evident in related discourse.1,2 Human health and livelihoods can be severely impacted by wildlife and indirectly by policy outcomes.3 In landscapes where growing human and elephant (Loxodonta spp. and Elephas maximus) populations compete over limited resources, human-elephant conflict causes crop loss, human injury and death, and retaliatory killing of wildlife.4-6 Across Africa, these problems may be increasingly compounded by climate change, which intensifies resource competition and food insecurity.6-9 Here, we examine how human-wildlife impacts interact with climate change and household food insecurity across the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area, the world's largest terrestrial transboundary conservation area, spanning five African nations. We use hierarchical Bayesian statistical models to analyze multi-country household data together with longitudinal satellite-based climate measures relevant to rainfed agriculture. We find that crop depredation by wildlife, primarily elephants, impacts 58% of sampled households annually and is associated with significant increases in food insecurity. These wildlife impacts compound effects of changing climate on food insecurity, most notably observed as a 5-day shortening of the rainy season per 10 years across the data record (1981-2018). To advance sustainability goals, global conservation policy must better integrate empirical evidence on the challenges of human-wildlife coexistence into longer term strategies at transboundary scales, specifically in the context of climate change.3,9-11.

Woodlot management and livelihoods in a tropical conservation landscape.

In biodiversity hotspots, there is often tension between human needs and conservation, exacerbated when protected areas prevent access to natural resources. Forest-dependent people may compensate for exclusion by managing unprotected forests or cultivating planted woodlots. Outside Bwindi Impenetrable National Park in Uganda, household wood product needs are high and population growth puts pressure on the environment. We investigated the role of privately and collectively managed woodlots in provisioning wood products and supporting local livelihoods. We found that households relied heavily on woodlots for daily needs and as resources during time of need. We also found that locally relevant social institutions, called stretcher groups, played a role in the management of woodlots, providing shared community resources. Privately and collectively owned woodlots support local livelihoods and wood product needs in the region. Long-term management of forests in Uganda should consider the value of woodlots and the mechanisms required to support them.

Mobile phone use is associated with higher smallholder agricultural productivity in Tanzania, East Africa.

Mobile phone use is increasing in Sub-Saharan Africa, spurring a growing focus on mobile phones as tools to increase agricultural yields and incomes on smallholder farms. However, the research to date on this topic is mixed, with studies finding both positive and neutral associations between phones and yields. In this paper we examine perceptions about the impacts of mobile phones on agricultural productivity, and the relationships between mobile phone use and agricultural yield. We do so by fitting multilevel statistical models to data from farmer-phone owners (n = 179) in 4 rural communities in Tanzania, controlling for site and demographic factors. Results show a positive association between mobile phone use for agricultural activities and reported maize yields. Further, many farmers report that mobile phone use increases agricultural profits (67% of respondents) and decreases the costs (50%) and time investments (47%) of farming. Our findings suggest that there are opportunities to target policy interventions at increasing phone use for agricultural activities in ways that facilitate access to timely, actionable information to support farmer decision making.

Wildlife impacts and vulnerable livelihoods in a transfrontier conservation landscape.

Interactions between humans and wildlife resulting in negative impacts are among the most pressing conservation challenges globally. In regions of smallholder livestock and crop production, interactions with wildlife can compromise human well-being and motivate negative sentiment and retaliation toward wildlife, undermining conservation goals. Although impacts may be unavoidable when human and wildlife land use overlap, scant large-scale human data exist quantifying the direct costs of wildlife to livelihoods. In a landscape of global importance for wildlife conservation in southern Africa, we quantified costs for people living with wildlife through a fundamental measure of human well-being, food security, and we tested whether existing livelihood strategies buffer certain households against crop depredation by wildlife, predominantly elephants. To do this, we estimated Bayesian multilevel statistical models based on multicounty household data (n = 711) and interpreted model results in the context of spatial data from participatory land-use mapping. Reported crop depredation by wildlife was widespread. Over half of the sample households were affected and household food security was reduced significantly (odds ratio 0.37 [0.22, 0.63]). The most food insecure households relied on gathered food sources and welfare programs. In the event of crop depredation by wildlife, these 2 livelihood sources buffered or reduced harmful effects of depredation. The presence of buffering strategies suggests a targeted compensation strategy could benefit the region's most vulnerable people. Such strategies should be combined with dynamic and spatially explicit land-use planning that may reduce the frequency of negative human-wildlife impacts. Quantifying and mitigating the human costs from wildlife are necessary steps in working toward human-wildlife coexistence.

Impactos de la Fauna y Medios de Subsistencia Vulnerables en unkl Paisaje de Conservación Transfronteriza Resumen Las interacciones entre los humanos y la fauna que resultan en impactos negativos se encuentran entre los desafíos más apremiantes para la conservación a nivel mundial. En las regiones de ganaderos y agricultores minifundistas, las interacciones con la fauna pueden poner en peligro el bienestar humano y motivar sentimientos negativos y represalias hacia la fauna, lo que debilita los objetivos de conservación. Aunque los impactos pueden evitarse cuando el uso de suelo por humanos y fauna se traslapa, existen pocos datos humanos a gran escala que cuantifiquen el costo directo de la fauna para los medios de subsistencia. Cuantificamos el costo para las personas que conviven con animales silvestres en un paisaje de importancia global para la conservación de fauna en el sur de África. La cuantificación fue realizada por medio de una medida fundamental de bienestar humano y seguridad alimentaria, y probamos si las estrategias existentes de subsistencia amortiguan a ciertos hogares ante la depredación de cultivos realizada por animales silvestres, predominantemente los elefantes. Para realizar esto, estimamos algunos modelos estadísticos bayesianos de niveles múltiples basados en los datos de hogares ubicados en múltiples condados (n = 711) e interpretamos los resultados de los modelos en el contexto de los datos espaciales a partir de un mapeo participativo de uso de suelo. La depredación de cultivos por animales silvestres fue reportada de manera generalizada. Más de la mitad de los hogares en la muestra estuvieron afectados y la seguridad alimenticia de los hogares se redujo significativamente (proporción de probabilidades 0.37 [0.22, 0.63]). Los hogares con la menor seguridad alimentaria dependían de fuentes de recolección de alimentos y programas de bienestar. En el evento de la depredación por fauna de los cultivos, estas dos fuentes de subsistencia amortiguaron o redujeron los efectos dañinos de la depredación. La presencia de las estrategias de amortiguamiento sugiere que una estrategia de compensación enfocada podría beneficiar a las personas más vulnerables de la región. Dichas estrategias deberían estar combinadas con la planeación del uso de suelo dinámica y espacialmente explícita, la cual podría reducir la frecuencia de los impactos negativos entre los humanos y la fauna. La cuantificación y mitificación del costo humano a partir de la fauna son pasos necesarios en el camino hacia la coexistencia entre los humanos y la fauna.

Public perspectives and media reporting of wolf reintroduction in Colorado.

In the state of Colorado, a citizen ballot initiative to reintroduce gray wolves (Canis lupus) is eliciting polarization and conflict among multiple stakeholder and interest groups. Given this complex social landscape, we examined the social context surrounding wolf reintroduction in Colorado as of 2019. We used an online survey of 734 Coloradans representative in terms of age and gender, and we sampled from different regions across the state, to examine public beliefs and attitudes related to wolf reintroduction and various wolf management options. We also conducted a content analysis of media coverage on potential wolf reintroduction in 10 major daily Colorado newspapers from January 2019, when the signature-gathering effort for the wolf reintroduction initiative began, through the end of January 2020, when the initiative was officially added to the ballot. Our findings suggest a high degree of social tolerance or desire for wolf reintroduction in Colorado across geographies, stakeholder groups, and demographics. However, we also find that a portion of the public believes that wolves would negatively impact their livelihoods, primarily because of concerns over the safety of people and pets, loss of hunting opportunities, and potential wolf predation on livestock. These concerns-particularly those related to livestock losses-are strongly reflected in the media. We find that media coverage has focused only on a few of the many perceived positive and negative impacts of wolf reintroduction identified among the public. Our findings highlight the need to account for this diversity of perspectives in future decisions and to conduct public outreach regarding likely impacts of wolf reintroduction.

Designing cultural multilevel selection research for sustainability science.

Humans stand out among animals in that we cooperate in large groups to exploit natural resources, and accumulate resource exploitation techniques across generations via cultural learning. This uniquely human form of adaptability is in large part to blame for the global sustainability crisis. This paper builds on cultural evolutionary theory to conceptualize and study environmental resource use and overexploitation. Human social learning and cooperation, particularly regarding social dilemmas, result in both sustainability crises and solutions. Examples include the collapse of global fisheries, and multilateral agreements to halt ozone depletion. We propose an explicitly evolutionary approach to study how crises and solutions may emerge, persist, or disappear. We first present a brief primer on cultural evolution to define group-level cultural adaptations for resource use. This includes criteria for identifying where group-level cultural adaptations may exist, and if a cultural evolutionary approach can be implemented in studying a given system. We then outline a step-by-step process for designing a study of group-level cultural adaptation, including the major methodological considerations that researchers should address in study design, such as tradeoffs between validity and control, issues of time scale, and the value of both qualitative and quantitative data and analysis. We discuss how to evaluate multiple types of evidence synthetically, including historical accounts, new and existing data sets, case studies, and simulations. The electronic supplement provides a tutorial and simple computer code in the R environment to lead users from theory to data to an illustration of an empirical test for group-level adaptations in sustainability research.

A cross-country analysis of climate shocks and smallholder food insecurity.

Future climate changes will affect smallholder farmers in the developing world, posing threats to household food security. Nevertheless, there remains limited comparable evidence across multiple countries and regions regarding the global extent of climate shocks affecting smallholder food security. We examine data from 5,299 household surveys across 15 countries in Latin America, Africa and South Asia to assess the extent of climate shocks and their association with food insecurity, as well as what strategies may help buffer against climate shocks. We find that 71% of households reported experiencing a climate shock in the previous five years. Fifty-four percent reported experiencing food insecurity during one or more months annually. A multilevel statistical model estimated factors correlated with food insecurity as well as factors correlated with food insecurity among households that had experienced a climate shock. Households that reported experiencing a climate shock were 1.73 times more likely to be food insecure. As well, larger and poorer households were associated with higher odds of food insecurity while using pesticides, keeping large livestock, and being more educated are associated with lower odds of food insecurity. Among households that had experienced a climate shock, additional factors are correlated with lower odds of food insecurity when compared to otherwise similar households: use of fertilizers, pesticides, veterinary medicines, large livestock, and household assets. Together, these results demonstrate the extent of existing climate shocks affecting smallholder farmers and how interventions may potentially support adaptation and reduce food insecurity.

Human-Wildlife Interactions Predict Febrile Illness in Park Landscapes of Western Uganda.

Fevers of unknown origin complicate treatment and prevention of infectious diseases and are a global health burden. We examined risk factors of self-reported fever-categorized as "malarial" and "nonmalarial"-in households adjacent to national parks across the Ugandan Albertine Rift, a biodiversity and emerging infectious disease hotspot. Statistical models fitted to these data suggest that perceived nonmalarial fevers of unknown origin were associated with more frequent direct contact with wildlife and with increased distance from parks where wildlife habitat is limited to small forest fragments. Perceived malarial fevers were associated with close proximity to parks but were not associated with direct wildlife contact. Self-reported fevers of any kind were not associated with livestock ownership. These results suggest a hypothesis that nonmalarial fevers in this area are associated with wildlife contact, and further investigation of zoonoses from wildlife is warranted. More generally, our findings of land use-disease relationships aid in hypothesis development for future research in this social-ecological system where emerging infectious diseases specifically, and rural public health provisioning generally, are important issues.

Changing perceptions of protected area benefits and problems around Kibale National Park, Uganda.

Local residents' changing perceptions of benefits and problems from living next to a protected area in western Uganda are assessed by comparing household survey data from 2006, 2009, and 2012. Findings are contextualized and supported by long-term data sources for tourism, protected area-based employment, tourism revenue sharing, resource access agreements, and problem animal abundance. We found decreasing perceived benefit and increasing perceived problems associated with the protected area over time, with both trends dominated by increased human-wildlife conflict due to recovering elephant numbers. Proportions of households claiming benefit from specific conservation strategies were increasing, but not enough to offset crop raiding. Ecosystem services mitigated perceptions of problems. As human and animal populations rise, wildlife authorities in Sub-Saharan Africa will be challenged to balance perceptions and adapt policies to ensure the continued existence of protected areas. Understanding the dynamic nature of local people's perceptions provides a tool to adapt protected area management plans, prioritize conservation resources, and engage local communities to support protected areas.

Human migration, protected areas, and conservation outreach in Tanzania.

A recent discussion debates the extent of human in-migration around protected areas (PAs) in the tropics. One proposed argument is that rural migrants move to bordering areas to access conservation outreach benefits. A counter proposal maintains that PAs have largely negative effects on local populations and that outreach initiatives even if successful present insufficient benefits to drive in-migration. Using data from Tanzania, we examined merits of statistical tests and spatial methods used previously to evaluate migration near PAs and applied hierarchical modeling with appropriate controls for demographic and geographic factors to advance the debate. Areas bordering national parks in Tanzania did not have elevated rates of in-migration. Low baseline population density and high vegetation productivity with low interannual variation rather than conservation outreach explained observed migration patterns. More generally we argue that to produce results of conservation policy significance, analyses must be conducted at appropriate scales, and we caution against use of demographic data without appropriate controls when drawing conclusions about migration dynamics.

Remarkable rates of lightning strike mortality in Malawi.

Livingstone's second mission site on the shore of Lake Malawi suffers very high rates of consequential lightning strikes. Comprehensive interviewing of victims and their relatives in seven Traditional Authorities in Nkhata Bay District, Malawi revealed that the annual rate of consequential strikes was 419/million, more than six times higher than that in other developing countries; the rate of deaths from lightning was 84/million/year, 5.4 times greater than the highest ever recorded. These remarkable figures reveal that lightning constitutes a significant stochastic source of mortality with potential life history consequences, but it should not deflect attention away from the more prominent causes of mortality in this rural area.