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2.
Environ Manage ; 72(3): 682-697, 2023 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36633631

ABSTRACT

We implemented a fire modeling approach to evaluate the effectiveness of silvicultural treatments in reducing potential losses to the Hyrcanian temperate forests of northern Iran, in the Siahkal National Forest (57,110 ha). We compared the effectiveness of selection cutting, low thinning, crown thinning, and clear-cutting treatments implemented during the last ten years (n = 241, 9500-ha) on simulated stand-scale and landscape-scale fire behavior. First, we built a set of fuel models for the different treatment prescriptions. We then modeled 10,000 fires at the 30-m resolution, assuming low, moderate, high, very high, and extreme weather scenarios and human-caused ignition patterns. Finally, we implemented a One-way ANOVA test to analyze stand-level and landscape-scale modeling output differences between treated and untreated conditions. The results showed a significant reduction of stand-level fire hazard, where the average conditional flame length and crown fire probability was reduced by about 12 and 22%, respectively. The conifer plantation patches presented the most significant reduction in the crown fire probability (>35%). On the other hand, we found a minor increase in the overall burn probability and fire size at the landscape scale. Stochastic fire modeling captured the complex interactions among terrain, vegetation, ignition locations, and weather conditions in the study area. Our findings highlight fuel treatment efficacy for moderating potential fire risk and restoring fuel profiles in fire-sensitive temperate forests of northern Iran, where the growing persistent droughts and fuel buildup can lead to extreme fires in the near future.


Subject(s)
Droughts , Forests , Humans , Iran , Probability
3.
Data Brief ; 38: 107355, 2021 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34568524

ABSTRACT

We applied a geographical information system analysis to reclassify and characterize anthropic buildings based on structure density and area covered, land type, and proximity to wildlands able to originate intense wildfires and spot fires. The methodology was carried out in the 93,000 km2 Italy-France Maritime cooperation area (which includes the Regions of Sardinia, Tuscany, and Liguria, in Italy, and Corsica, and Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, in France). We produced a 100-m raster dataset that characterizes and maps medium-high anthropic presence, wildland-anthropic areas, dispersed anthropic areas, and non-anthropic zones, in the whole study area. The study allowed to highlight variations in wildland anthropic interfaces among and within Regions as a function of anthropic presence and types and the surrounding wildlands. The spatial dataset provided with this work represents a valuable contribution to support landscape and urban planning and inform strategies to limit wildfire impacts nearby anthropic areas.

4.
Sci Total Environ ; 624: 1152-1162, 2018 May 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29929227

ABSTRACT

Sardinia (Italy), the second largest island of the Mediterranean Sea, is a fire-prone land. Most Sardinian environments over time were shaped by fire, but some of them are too intrinsically fragile to withstand the currently increasing fire frequency. Calcareous pedoenvironments represent a significant part of Mediterranean areas, and require important efforts to prevent long-lasting degradation from fire. The aim of this study was to assess through an integrated multiple approach the impact of a single and highly severe wildland fire on limestone-derived soils. For this purpose, we selected two recently burned sites, Sant'Antioco and Laconi. Soil was sampled from 80 points on a 100×100m grid - 40 in the burned area and 40 in unburned one - and analyzed for particle size fractions, pH, electrical conductivity, organic carbon, total N, total P, and water repellency (WR). Fire behavior (surface rate of spread (ROS), fireline intensity (FLI), flame length (FL)) was simulated by BehavePlus 5.0.5 software. Comparisons between burned and unburned areas were done through ANOVA as well as deterministic and stochastic interpolation techniques; multiple correlations among parameters were evaluated by principal factor analysis (PFA) and differences/similarities between areas by principal component analysis (PCA). In both sites, fires were characterized by high severity and determined significant changes to some soil properties. The PFA confirmed the key ecological role played by fire in both sites, with the variability of a four-modeled components mainly explained by fire parameters, although the induced changes on soils were mainly site-specific. The PCA revealed the presence of two main "driving factors": slope (in Sant'Antioco), which increased the magnitude of ROS and FLI; and soil properties (in Laconi), which mostly affected FL. In both sites, such factors played a direct role in differentiating fire behavior and sites, while they played an indirect role in determining some effects on soil.

5.
J Environ Manage ; 212: 490-505, 2018 Apr 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29475158

ABSTRACT

Wildfire spread and behavior can be limited by fuel treatments, even if their effects can vary according to a number of factors including type, intensity, extension, and spatial arrangement. In this work, we simulated the response of key wildfire exposure metrics to variations in the percentage of treated area, treatment unit size, and spatial arrangement of fuel treatments under different wind intensities. The study was carried out in a fire-prone 625 km2 agro-pastoral area mostly covered by herbaceous fuels, and located in Northern Sardinia, Italy. We constrained the selection of fuel treatment units to areas covered by specific herbaceous land use classes and low terrain slope (<10%). We treated 2%, 5% and 8% of the landscape area, and identified priority sites to locate the fuel treatment units for all treatment alternatives. The fuel treatment alternatives were designed create diverse mosaics of disconnected treatment units with different sizes (0.5-10 ha, LOW strategy; 10-25 ha, MED strategy; 25-50 ha, LAR strategy); in addition, treatment units in a 100-m buffer around the road network (ROAD strategy) were tested. We assessed pre- and post-treatment wildfire behavior by the Minimum Travel Time (MTT) fire spread algorithm. The simulations replicated a set of southwestern wind speed scenarios (16, 24 and 32 km h-1) and the driest fuel moisture conditions observed in the study area. Our results showed that fuel treatments implemented near the existing road network were significantly more efficient than the other alternatives, and this difference was amplified at the highest wind speed. Moreover, the largest treatment unit sizes were the most effective in containing wildfire growth. As expected, increasing the percentage of the landscape treated and reducing wind speed lowered fire exposure profiles for all fuel treatment alternatives, and this was observed at both the landscape scale and for highly valued resources. The methodology presented in this study can support the design and optimization of fuel management programs and policies in agro-pastoral areas of the Mediterranean Basin and herbaceous type landscapes elsewhere, where recurrent grassland fires pose a threat to rural communities, farms and infrastructures.


Subject(s)
Conservation of Natural Resources , Wildfires , Fires , Italy , Wind
6.
Data Brief ; 17: 1-5, 2018 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29349103

ABSTRACT

We provide 40 m resolution wildfire spread, hazard and exposure metric raster grids for the 0.13 million ha fire-prone Bages County in central Catalonia (northeastern Spain) corresponding to node influence grid (NIG), crown fraction burned (CFB) and fire transmission to residential houses (TR). Fire spread and behavior data (NIG, CFB and fire perimeters) were generated with fire simulation modeling considering wildfire season extreme fire weather conditions (97th percentile). Moreover, CFB was also generated for prescribed fire (Rx) mild weather conditions. The TR smoothed grid was obtained with a geospatial analysis considering large fire perimeters and individual residential structures located within the study area. We made these raster grids available to assist in the optimization of wildfire risk management plans within the study area and to help mitigate potential losses from catastrophic events.

7.
Sci Total Environ ; 621: 872-885, 2018 Apr 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29216595

ABSTRACT

We used spatial optimization to allocate and prioritize prescribed fire treatments in the fire-prone Bages County, central Catalonia (northeastern Spain). The goal of this study was to identify suitable strategic locations on forest lands for fuel treatments in order to: 1) disrupt major fire movements, 2) reduce ember emissions, and 3) reduce the likelihood of large fires burning into residential communities. We first modeled fire spread, hazard and exposure metrics under historical extreme fire weather conditions, including node influence grid for surface fire pathways, crown fraction burned and fire transmission to residential structures. Then, we performed an optimization analysis on individual planning areas to identify production possibility frontiers for addressing fire exposure and explore alternative prescribed fire treatment configurations. The results revealed strong trade-offs among different fire exposure metrics, showed treatment mosaics that optimize the allocation of prescribed fire, and identified specific opportunities to achieve multiple objectives. Our methods can contribute to improving the efficiency of prescribed fire treatment investments and wildfire management programs aimed at creating fire resilient ecosystems, facilitating safe and efficient fire suppression, and safeguarding rural communities from catastrophic wildfires. The analysis framework can be used to optimally allocate prescribed fire in other fire-prone areas within the Mediterranean region and elsewhere.

8.
Risk Anal ; 37(10): 1898-1916, 2017 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27996154

ABSTRACT

We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities.

9.
Environ Manage ; 55(5): 1200-16, 2015 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25613434

ABSTRACT

We used a fire simulation modeling approach to assess landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources and assets (HVR) on a fire-prone area of 680 km(2) located in central Sardinia, Italy. The study area was affected by several wildfires in the last half century: some large and intense fire events threatened wildland urban interfaces as well as other socioeconomic and cultural values. Historical wildfire and weather data were used to inform wildfire simulations, which were based on the minimum travel time algorithm as implemented in FlamMap. We simulated 90,000 fires that replicated recent large fire events in the area spreading under severe weather conditions to generate detailed maps of wildfire likelihood and intensity. Then, we linked fire modeling outputs to a geospatial risk assessment framework focusing on buffer areas around HVR. The results highlighted a large variation in burn probability and fire intensity in the vicinity of HVRs, and allowed us to identify the areas most exposed to wildfires and thus to a higher potential damage. Fire intensity in the HVR buffers was mainly related to fuel types, while wind direction, topographic features, and historically based ignition pattern were the key factors affecting fire likelihood. The methodology presented in this work can have numerous applications, in the study area and elsewhere, particularly to address and inform fire risk management, landscape planning and people safety on the vicinity of HVRs.


Subject(s)
Conservation of Natural Resources/methods , Environment Design , Fires , Weather , Algorithms , Computer Simulation , Conservation of Natural Resources/economics , Conservation of Natural Resources/trends , Fires/prevention & control , Humans , Italy , Models, Theoretical , Probability , Risk Assessment/methods , Risk Management
10.
Environ Monit Assess ; 187(1): 4175, 2015 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25471625

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we applied landscape scale wildfire simulation modeling to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity in the island of Sardinia (Italy). We also performed wildfire exposure analysis for selected highly valued resources on the island to identify areas characterized by high risk. We observed substantial variation in burn probability, fire size, and flame length among time periods within the fire season, which starts in early June and ends in late September. Peak burn probability and flame length were observed in late July. We found that patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity were mainly related to spatiotemporal variation in ignition locations, fuel moisture, and wind vectors. Our modeling approach allowed consideration of historical patterns of winds, ignition locations, and live and dead fuel moisture on fire exposure factors. The methodology proposed can be useful for analyzing potential wildfire risk and effects at landscape scale, evaluating historical changes and future trends in wildfire exposure, as well as for addressing and informing fuel management and risk mitigation issues.


Subject(s)
Environmental Monitoring , Fires/statistics & numerical data , Conservation of Natural Resources , Fires/prevention & control , Humans , Italy , Probability , Risk Assessment/methods , Seasons , Wind
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