Breast Cancer Index and prediction of benefit from extended endocrine therapy in breast cancer patients treated in the Adjuvant Tamoxifen-To Offer More? (aTTom) trial.

BACKGROUND: Extending the duration of adjuvant endocrine therapy reduces the risk of recurrence in a subset of women with early-stage hormone receptor-positive (HR+) breast cancer. Validated predictive biomarkers of endocrine response could significantly improve patient selection for extended therapy. Breast cancer index (BCI) [HOXB13/IL17BR ratio (H/I)] was evaluated for its ability to predict benefit from extended endocrine therapy in patients previously randomized in the Adjuvant Tamoxifen-To Offer More? (aTTom) trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Trans-aTTom is a multi-institutional, prospective-retrospective study in patients with available formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded primary tumor blocks. BCI testing and central determination of estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) status by immunohistochemistry were carried out blinded to clinical outcome. Survival endpoints were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression with recurrence-free interval (RFI) as the primary endpoint. Interaction between extended endocrine therapy and BCI (H/I) was assessed using the likelihood ratio test. RESULTS: Of 583 HR+, N+ patients analyzed, 49% classified as BCI (H/I)-High derived a significant benefit from 10 versus 5 years of tamoxifen treatment [hazard ratio (HR): 0.35; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.15-0.86; 10.2% absolute risk reduction based on RFI, P = 0.027]. BCI (H/I)-low patients showed no significant benefit from extended endocrine therapy (HR: 1.07; 95% CI 0.69-1.65; -0.2% absolute risk reduction; P = 0.768). Continuous BCI (H/I) levels predicted the magnitude of benefit from extended tamoxifen, whereas centralized ER and PR did not. Interaction between extended tamoxifen treatment and BCI (H/I) was statistically significant (P = 0.012), adjusting for clinicopathological factors. CONCLUSION: BCI by high H/I expression was predictive of endocrine response and identified a subset of HR+, N+ patients with significant benefit from 10 versus 5 years of tamoxifen therapy. These data provide further validation, consistent with previous MA.17 data, establishing level 1B evidence for BCI as a predictive biomarker of benefit from extended endocrine therapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN17222211; NCT00003678.

Prognostic utility of HOXB13:IL17BR and molecular grade index in early-stage breast cancer patients from the Stockholm trial.

BACKGROUND: A dichotomous index combining two gene expression assays, HOXB13:IL17BR (H:I) and molecular grade index (MGI), was developed to assess risk of recurrence in breast cancer patients. The study objective was to demonstrate the prognostic utility of the combined index in early-stage breast cancer. METHODS: In a blinded retrospective analysis of 588 ER-positive tamoxifen-treated and untreated breast cancer patients from the randomised prospective Stockholm trial, H:I and MGI were measured using real-time RT-PCR. Association with patient outcome was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazard regression. A continuous risk index was developed using Cox modelling. RESULTS: The dichotomous H:I+MGI was significantly associated with distant recurrence and breast cancer death. The >50% of tamoxifen-treated patients categorised as low-risk had <3% 10-year distant recurrence risk. A continuous risk model (Breast Cancer Index (BCI)) was developed with the tamoxifen-treated group and the prognostic performance tested in the untreated group was 53% of patients categorised as low risk with an 8.3% 10-year distant recurrence risk. CONCLUSION: Retrospective analysis of this randomised, prospective trial cohort validated the prognostic utility of H:I+MGI and was used to develop and test a continuous risk model that enables prediction of distant recurrence risk at the patient level.