ABSTRACT
Data science has been an invaluable part of the COVID-19 pandemic response with multiple applications, ranging from tracking viral evolution to understanding the effectiveness of interventions. Asymptomatic breakthrough infections have been a major problem during the ongoing surge of Delta variant globally. Serological discrimination of vaccine response from infection has so far been limited to Spike protein vaccines used in the higher-income regions. Here, we show for the first time how statistical and machine learning (ML) approaches can discriminate SARS-CoV-2 infection from immune response to an inactivated whole virion vaccine (BBV152, Covaxin, India), thereby permitting real-world vaccine effectiveness assessments from cohort-based serosurveys in Asia and Africa where such vaccines are commonly used. Briefly, we accessed serial data on Anti-S and Anti-NC antibody concentration values, along with age, sex, number of doses, and number of days since the last vaccine dose for 1823 Covaxin recipients. An ensemble ML model, incorporating a consensus clustering approach alongside the support vector machine (SVM) model, was built on 1063 samples where reliable qualifying data existed, and then applied to the entire dataset. Of 1448 self-reported negative subjects, 724 were classified as infected. Since the vaccine contains wild-type virus and the antibodies induced will neutralize wild type much better than Delta variant, we determined the relative ability of a random subset of such samples to neutralize Delta versus wild type strain. In 100 of 156 samples, where ML prediction differed from self-reported uninfected status, Delta variant, was neutralized more effectively than the wild type, which cannot happen without infection. The fraction rose to 71.8% (28 of 39) in subjects predicted to be infected during the surge, which is concordant with the percentage of sequences classified as Delta (75.6%-80.2%) over the same period.
ABSTRACT
Delhi, the national capital of India, has experienced multiple SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in 2020 and reached a population seropositivity of over 50% by 2021. During April 2021, the city became overwhelmed by COVID-19 cases and fatalities, as a new variant B.1.617.2 (Delta) replaced B.1.1.7 (Alpha). A Bayesian model explains the growth advantage of Delta through a combination of increased transmissibility and partial reduction of immunity elicited by prior infection (median estimates; x1.5-fold, 20% reduction). Seropositivity of an employee and family cohort increased from 42% to 86% between March and July 2021, with 27% reinfections, as judged by increased antibody concentration after previous decline. The likely high transmissibility and partial evasion of immunity by the Delta variant contributed to an overwhelming surge in Delhi. One-Sentence SummaryDelhi experienced an overwhelming surge of COVID-19 cases and fatalities peaking in May 2021 as the highly transmissible and immune evasive Delta variant replaced the Alpha variant.
ABSTRACT
Immunization is expected to confer protection against infection and severe disease for vaccinees, while reducing risks to unimmunized populations by inhibiting transmission. Here, based on serial serological studies, we show that during a severe SARS-CoV2 Delta-variant outbreak in Delhi, 25.3% (95% CI 16.9 - 35.2) of previously uninfected, ChAdOx1-nCoV19 double vaccinated, healthcare-workers (HCW) were infected within a period of less than two months, based on serology. Induction of anti-spike response was similar between groups with breakthrough infection (541 U/ml, IQR 374) or not (342 U/ml, IQR 497), as was induction of neutralization activity to wildtype. Most infections were unrecognized. The Delta-variant thus causes frequent unrecognized breakthrough infections in adequately immunized subjects, reducing any herd-effect of immunity, and requiring reinstatement of preventive measures such as masking.
ABSTRACT
To understand the spread of SARS-CoV2, in August and September 2020, the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (India), conducted a sero-survey across its constituent laboratories and centers across India. Of 10,427 volunteers, 1058 (10.14%) tested positive for SARS CoV2 anti-nucleocapsid (anti-NC) antibodies; 95% with surrogate neutralization activity. Three-fourth recalled no symptoms. Repeat serology tests at 3 (n=346) and 6 (n=35) months confirmed stability of antibody response and neutralization potential. Local sero-positivity was higher in densely populated cities and was inversely correlated with a 30 day change in regional test positivity rates (TPR). Regional seropositivity above 10% was associated with declining TPR. Personal factors associated with higher odds of sero-positivity were high-exposure work (Odds Ratio, 95% CI, p value; 2{middle dot}23, 1{middle dot}92-2{middle dot}59, 6{middle dot}5E-26), use of public transport (1{middle dot}79, 1{middle dot}43-2{middle dot}24, 2{middle dot}8E-06), not smoking (1{middle dot}52, 1{middle dot}16-1{middle dot}99, 0{middle dot}02), non-vegetarian diet (1{middle dot}67, 1{middle dot}41-1{middle dot}99, 3{middle dot}0E-08), and B blood group (1{middle dot}36,1{middle dot}15-1{middle dot}61, 0{middle dot}001). Impact StatementWidespread asymptomatic and undetected SARS-CoV2 infection affected more than a 100 million Indians by September 2020. Declining new cases thereafter may be due to persisting humoral immunity amongst sub-communities with high exposure. FundingCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research, India (CSIR)
ABSTRACT
BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 infection has caused 64,469 deaths in India, with 7, 81, 975 active cases till 30th August 2020, lifting it to 3rd rank globally. To estimate the burden of the disease with time it is important to undertake a longitudinal seroprevalence study which will also help to understand the stability of anti SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Various studies have been conducted worldwide to assess the antibody stability. However, there is very limited data available from India. Healthcare workers (HCW) are the frontline workforce and more exposed to the COVID-19 infection (SARS-CoV-2) compared to the community. This study was conceptualized with an aim to estimate the seroprevalence in hospital and general population and determine the stability of anti SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in HCW. MethodsStaff of a tertiary care hospital in Delhi and individuals visiting that hospital were recruited between April to August 2020. Venous blood sample, demographic, clinical, COVID-19 symptoms, and RT-PCR data was collected from all participants. Serological testing was performed using the electro-chemiluminescence based assay developed by Roche Diagnostics, in Cobas Elecsys 411. Seropositive participants were followed- upto 83 days to check for the presence of antibodies. ResultsA total of 780 participants were included in this study, which comprised 448 HCW and 332 individuals from the general population. Among the HCW, seroprevalence rates increased from 2.3% in April to 50.6% in July. The cumulative prevalence was 16.5% in HCW and 23.5% (78/332) in the general population with a large number of asymptomatic individuals. Out of 74 seropositive HCWs, 51 were followed-up for the duration of this study. We observed that in all seropositive cases the antibodies were sustained even up to 83 days. ConclusionThe cumulative prevalence of seropositivity was lower in HCWs than the general population. There were a large number of asymptomatic cases and the antibodies developed persisted through the duration of the study. More such longitudinal serology studies are needed to better understand the antibody response kinetics.
ABSTRACT
The rapid emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a global pandemic affecting millions of individuals globally has necessitated sensitive and high-throughput approaches for the diagnosis, surveillance and for determining the genetic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. In the present study, we used the COVIDSeq protocol, which involves multiplex-PCR, barcoding and sequencing of samples for high-throughput detection and deciphering the genetic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. We used the approach on 752 clinical samples in duplicates, amounting to a total of 1536 samples which could be sequenced on a single S4 sequencing flow cell on NovaSeq 6000. Our analysis suggests a high concordance between technical duplicates and a high concordance of detection of SARS-CoV-2 between the COVIDSeq as well as RT-PCR approaches. An in-depth analysis revealed a total of six samples in which COVIDSeq detected SARS-CoV-2 in high confidence which were negative in RT-PCR. Additionally, the assay could detect SARS-CoV-2 in 21 samples and 16 samples which were classified inconclusive and pan-sarbeco positive respectively suggesting that COVIDSeq could be used as a confirmatory test. The sequencing approach also enabled insights into the evolution and genetic epidemiology of the SARS-CoV-2 samples. The samples were classified into a total of 3 clades. This study reports two lineages B.1.112 and B.1.99 for the first time in India. This study also revealed 1,143 unique single nucleotide variants and added a total of 73 novel variants identified for the first time. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of the COVIDSeq approach for detection and genetic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. Our analysis suggests that COVIDSeq could be a potential high sensitivity assay for detection of SARS-CoV-2, with an additional advantage of enabling genetic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2.
