Trends in Empiric Broad-Spectrum Antibiotic Use for Suspected Community-Onset Sepsis in US Hospitals.

Importance: Little is known about the degree to which suspected sepsis drives broad-spectrum antibiotic use in hospitals, what proportion of antibiotic courses are unnecessarily broad in retrospect, and whether these patterns are changing over time. Objective: To describe trends in empiric broad-spectrum antibiotic use for suspected community-onset sepsis. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used clinical data from adults admitted to 241 US hospitals in the PINC AI Healthcare Database. Eligible participants were aged 18 years or more and were admitted between 2017 and 2021 with suspected community-onset sepsis, defined by a blood culture draw, lactate measurement, and intravenous antibiotic administration on admission. Exposures: Empiric anti-methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and/or antipseudomonal ß-lactam agent use. Main Outcomes and Measures: Annual rates of empiric anti-MRSA and/or antipseudomonal ß-lactam agent use and the proportion that were likely unnecessary in retrospect based on the absence of ß-lactam resistant gram-positive or ceftriaxone-resistant gram-negative pathogens from clinical cultures obtained through hospital day 4. Annual trends were calculated using mixed-effects logistic regression models, adjusting for patient and hospital characteristics. Results: Among 6 272 538 hospitalizations (median [IQR] age, 66 [53-78] years; 443 465 male [49.6%]; 106 095 Black [11.9%], 65 763 Hispanic [7.4%], 653 907 White [73.1%]), 894 724 (14.3%) had suspected community-onset sepsis, of whom 582 585 (65.1%) received either empiric anti-MRSA (379 987 [42.5%]) or antipseudomonal ß-lactam therapy (513 811 [57.4%]); 311 213 (34.8%) received both. Patients with suspected community-onset sepsis accounted for 1 573 673 of 3 141 300 (50.1%) of total inpatient anti-MRSA antibiotic days and 2 569 518 of 5 211 745 (49.3%) of total antipseudomonal ß-lactam days. Between 2017 and 2021, the proportion of patients with suspected sepsis administered anti-MRSA or antipseudomonal therapy increased from 63.0% (82 731 of 131 275 patients) to 66.7% (101 003 of 151 435 patients) (adjusted OR [aOR] per year, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.03-1.04). However, resistant organisms were isolated in only 65 434 cases (7.3%) (30 617 gram-positive [3.4%], 38 844 gram-negative [4.3%]) and the proportion of patients who had any resistant organism decreased from 9.6% to 7.3% (aOR per year, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.87-0.88). Most patients with suspected sepsis treated with empiric anti-MRSA and/or antipseudomonal therapy had no resistant organisms (527 356 of 582 585 patients [90.5%]); this proportion increased from 88.0% in 2017 to 91.6% in 2021 (aOR per year, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.11-1.13). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of adults admitted to 241 US hospitals, empiric broad-spectrum antibiotic use for suspected community-onset sepsis accounted for half of all anti-MRSA or antipseudomonal therapy; the use of these types of antibiotics increased between 2017 and 2021 despite resistant organisms being isolated in less than 10% of patients treated with broad-spectrum agents.

Anti-Depressant Like Effects of Aethoscytus Foveolus Oil by Improving Stress-mediated Alterations of Monoamine Oxidase, Oxidative Stress, and Neuroinflammation In-vivo.

Depression is a neuropsychological disorder with a complex pathophysiology and its pharmacotherapy is compromised by adverse side effects. Addressing the need for effective treatment for depression, the current study aims to characterize the antidepressant activity of oil extract derived from Aethoscytus foveolus, bugs that are widely available in India, in a mice model of stress-induced depression. Chemical moieties characterized by GC-MS of A. foveolus oil extract have shown good affinity for monoamine oxidase A (MAO-A) in-silico. In-vitro MAO-inhibitory assay using mouse brain homogenates also showed similar results at IC50 1.363 nM (R2 = 0.981, SD ± 0.05, n = 3) of it. These results encouraged us to investigate the antidepressant potential of this oil extract in vivo. Stress-exposed mice (Swiss Albino, either sex, 25-30 gm) were administered 5 and 10 mg/kg doses of oil extract and classified as separate groups (N = 6 per group). Behavioral tests like the forced-swim test, tail-suspension test, and open-field test demonstrated significant attenuation of stress-induced depressive-like behavior of mice by both doses (p < 0.0001 with positive control group i.e., stress group), while biochemical tests on mice brain tissues showed amelioration of stress-induced hyperactivation of MAO (p < 0.0001) and oxidative stress (by increasing Superoxide dismutase and catalase, while reducing lipid peroxidase and nitric oxide) (p < 0.0001). The altered mRNA expression of proinflammatory cytokines (NF-κB, IL-6, IL-12, and TNF-α) (p < 0.015) was also improved by this oil extract. In addition, histopathology of hippocampus tissues of mice supports that this oil recovers stress-mediated structural changes of the brain. In conclusion our findings suggest that oil derived from A. foveolus could be beneficial in the alleviation of stress-mediated depressive-like behavior of mice, and in our knowledge, this is the first report identifying anti-neurodegenerative potential of A. foveolus.

Recombinant YopE and LcrV vaccine candidates protect mice against plague and yersiniosis.

No licensed vaccine exists for the lethal plague and yersiniosis. Therefore, a combination of recombinant YopE and LcrV antigens of Yersinia pestis was evaluated for its vaccine potential in a mouse model. YopE and LcrV in formulation with alum imparted a robust humoral immune response, with isotyping profiles leaning towards the IgG1 and IgG2b subclasses. It was also observed that a significantly enhanced expression of IFN-γ, TNF-α, IL-6, IL-2, and IL-1ß from the splenic cells of vaccinated mice, as well as YopE and LcrV-explicit IFN-γ eliciting T-cells. The cocktail of YopE + LcrV formulation conferred complete protection against 100 LD50Y. pestis infection, while individually, LcrV and YopE provided 80 % and 60 % protection, respectively. Similarly, the YopE + LcrV vaccinated animal group had significantly lower colony forming unit (CFU) counts in the spleen and blood compared to the groups administered with YopE or LcrV alone when challenged with Yersinia pseudotuberculosis and Yersinia enterocolitica. Histopathologic evidence reinforces these results, indicating the YopE + LcrV formulation provided superior protection against acute lung injury as early as day 3 post-challenge. In conclusion, the alum-adjuvanted YopE + LcrV is a promising vaccine formulation, eliciting a robust antibody response including a milieu of pro-inflammatory cytokines and T-cell effector functions that contribute to the protective immunity against Yersinia infections. YopE and LcrV, conserved across all three human-pathogenic Yersinia species, provide cross-protection. Therefore, our current vaccine (YopE + LcrV) targets all three pathogens: Y. pestis, Y. pseudotuberculosis, and Y. enterocolitica. However, the efficacy should be tested in other higher mammalian models.

Optimizing the Mechanical Properties of Cement Composite Boards Reinforced with Cellulose Pulp and Bamboo Fibers for Building Applications in Low-Cost Housing Estates.

Africa is the third-richest continent in the world in terms of bamboo species. Despite these laudable natural resources, most African countries still use asbestos cement board as one of their major building materials. This is chiefly due to the high cost of equipment and technologies associated with non-asbestos-fiber cement board production. The current research seeks to underscore the possibility of utilizing these massive continent resources for non-asbestos-fiber cement board production by employing the existing production process in the asbestos cement industries via an innovatively developed laboratory-simulated Hatschek process. Non-asbestos-fiber cement boards incorporating kraft and bamboo fibers were successfully produced in the laboratory using this innovative method based on Hatschek technology, with natural fibre addition in the range of 2-6 wt.%. Experimental results revealed that the Flexural strength and deflection of the board improved significantly, producing optimum values of 10.41 MPa and 2.0 mm, respectively for composite board reinforced with 10 wt.% and 6 wt.% of kraft pulp and bamboo fibers, respectively. The SEM morphology of the fractured surfaces revealed the mode of composite fracture as well as good interaction at the fiber-matrix interface. Overall, the mechanical properties of the developed composite boards satisfy the minimum requirements of relevant standards based on fiber cement flat sheets and can be employed for internal building applications in low-cost housing estates in developing countries. The outcome of this research indicates that the current industrial production process based on Hatschek technology can be employed for non-asbestos-fiber cement board production using the studied natural fiber.

Bronchiectasis-associated infections and outcomes in a large, geographically diverse electronic health record cohort in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Bronchiectasis is a pulmonary disease characterized by irreversible dilation of the bronchi and recurring respiratory infections. Few studies have described the microbiology and prevalence of infections in large patient populations outside of specialized tertiary care centers. METHODS: We used the Cerner HealthFacts Electronic Health Record database to characterize the nature, burden, and frequency of pulmonary infections among persons with bronchiectasis. Chronic infections were defined based on organism-specific guidelines. RESULTS: We identified 7,749 patients who met our incident bronchiectasis case definition. In this study population, the organisms with the highest rates of isolate prevalence were Pseudomonas aeruginosa with 937 (12%) individuals, Staphylococcus aureus with 502 (6%), Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) with 336 (4%), and Aspergillus sp. with 288 (4%). Among persons with at least one isolate of each respective pathogen, 219 (23%) met criteria for chronic P. aeruginosa colonization, 74 (15%) met criteria for S. aureus chronic colonization, 101 (30%) met criteria for MAC chronic infection, and 50 (17%) met criteria for Aspergillus sp. chronic infection. Of 5,795 persons with at least two years of observation, 1,860 (32%) had a bronchiectasis exacerbation and 3,462 (60%) were hospitalized within two years of bronchiectasis diagnoses. Among patients with chronic respiratory infections, the two-year occurrence of exacerbations was 53% and for hospitalizations was 82%. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with bronchiectasis experiencing chronic respiratory infections have high rates of hospitalization.

Carbapenem use in extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant Enterobacterales infections in US hospitals and influence of IDSA guidance: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Disparate and rapidly changing practice recommendations from major professional infectious diseases societies for managing non-severe infections caused by extended-spectrum ß-lactamase-producing Enterobacterales might hamper carbapenem stewardship. We aimed to understand the real-world management of extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant (ECR) Enterobacterales infections in US hospitals and factors influencing preference for carbapenems over alternative treatments. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included adults (aged ≥18 years) admitted to hospital with ECR Enterobacterales infections in the PINC AI database. Antibiotic regimens were assessed during empirical and targeted treatment periods and by infection severity and site. Likelihood of receiving targeted carbapenems over time and before or after initial release of the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) guidance on Sept 8, 2020, was established with generalised estimating equations controlling for patient, hospital, and temporal confounders. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2018, and Dec 31, 2021, 30 041 inpatient encounters with ECR Enterobacterales infections were identified at 168 US hospitals, of which 16 006 (53·3%) encounters were in women and 14 035 (46·7%) were in men, with a mean age of 67·3 years (SD 15·1). Although few patients received carbapenems empirically (5324 [17·7%] of 30 041), many did so as targeted treatment (17 518 [58·3%] of 30 041), including subgroups of patients without septic shock (3031 [45·6%] of 6651) and patients with urinary tract infections without septic shock (1845 [46·8%] of 3943) in whom specific narrower-spectrum alternatives were active. Transitions from non-carbapenem to carbapenem antibiotics occurred most often on the day that the ECR phenotype was reported, regardless of illness severity. Carbapenems were the predominant choice to treat ECR Enterobacterales infections over time (adjusted odds ratio 1·00 [95% CI 1·00-1·00]), with no additional immediate change (1·07 [0·95-1·20]) or sustained change (0·99 [0·98-1·00]) after IDSA guidance release. INTERPRETATION: High carbapenem use in targeting non-severe ECR Enterobacterales infections in US hospitals predates 2020 IDSA guidance and has persisted thereafter. Efforts to increase awareness and implementation of recommendations among clinicians to use carbapenem-sparing alternatives in ECR Enterobacterales infections might decrease global carbapenem selective pressure. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health Intramural Research Program, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and US Food and Drug Administration.

A narrative review on therapeutic potential of naringenin in colorectal cancer: Focusing on molecular and biochemical processes.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a common and highly metastatic cancer affecting people worldwide. Drug resistance and unwanted side effects are some of the limitations of current treatments for CRC. Naringenin (NAR) is a naturally occurring compound found in abundance in various citrus fruits such as oranges, grapefruits, and tomatoes. It possesses a diverse range of pharmacological and biological properties that are beneficial for human health. Numerous studies have highlighted its antioxidant, anticancer, and anti-inflammatory activities, making it a subject of interest in scientific research. This review provides a comprehensive overview of the effects of NAR on CRC. The study's findings indicated that NAR: (1) interacts with estrogen receptors, (2) regulates the expression of genes related to the p53 signaling pathway, (3) promotes apoptosis by increasing the expression of proapoptotic genes (Bax, caspase9, and p53) and downregulation of the antiapoptotic gene Bcl2, (4) inhibits the activity of enzymes involved in cell survival and proliferation, (5) decreases cyclin D1 levels, (6) reduces the expression of cyclin-dependent kinases (Cdk4, Cdk6, and Cdk7) and antiapoptotic genes (Bcl2, x-IAP, and c-IAP-2) in CRC cells. In vitro CDK2 binding assay was also performed, showing that the NAR derivatives had better inhibitory activities on CDK2 than NAR. Based on the findings of this study, NAR is a potential therapeutic agent for CRC. Additional pharmacology and pharmacokinetics studies are required to fully elucidate the mechanisms of action of NAR and establish the most suitable dose for subsequent clinical investigations.

Assessing Clinician Utilization of Next-Generation Antibiotics Against Resistant Gram-Negative Infections in U.S. Hospitals : A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The U.S. antibiotic market failure has threatened future innovation and supply. Understanding when and why clinicians underutilize recently approved gram-negative antibiotics might help prioritize the patient in future antibiotic development and potential market entry rewards. OBJECTIVE: To determine use patterns of recently U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved gram-negative antibiotics (ceftazidime-avibactam, ceftolozane-tazobactam, meropenem-vaborbactam, plazomicin, eravacycline, imipenem-relebactam-cilastatin, and cefiderocol) and identify factors associated with their preferential use (over traditional generic agents) in patients with gram-negative infections due to pathogens displaying difficult-to-treat resistance (DTR; that is, resistance to all first-line antibiotics). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort. SETTING: 619 U.S. hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Adult inpatients. MEASUREMENTS: Quarterly percentage change in antibiotic use was calculated using weighted linear regression. Machine learning selected candidate variables, and mixed models identified factors associated with new (vs. traditional) antibiotic use in DTR infections. RESULTS: Between quarter 1 of 2016 and quarter 2 of 2021, ceftolozane-tazobactam (approved 2014) and ceftazidime-avibactam (2015) predominated new antibiotic usage whereas subsequently approved gram-negative antibiotics saw relatively sluggish uptake. Among gram-negative infection hospitalizations, 0.7% (2551 [2631 episodes] of 362 142) displayed DTR pathogens. Patients were treated exclusively using traditional agents in 1091 of 2631 DTR episodes (41.5%), including "reserve" antibiotics such as polymyxins, aminoglycosides, and tigecycline in 865 of 1091 episodes (79.3%). Patients with bacteremia and chronic diseases had greater adjusted probabilities and those with do-not-resuscitate status, acute liver failure, and Acinetobacter baumannii complex and other nonpseudomonal nonfermenter pathogens had lower adjusted probabilities of receiving newer (vs. traditional) antibiotics for DTR infections, respectively. Availability of susceptibility testing for new antibiotics increased probability of usage. LIMITATION: Residual confounding. CONCLUSION: Despite FDA approval of 7 next-generation gram-negative antibiotics between 2014 and 2019, clinicians still frequently treat resistant gram-negative infections with older, generic antibiotics with suboptimal safety-efficacy profiles. Future antibiotics with innovative mechanisms targeting untapped pathogen niches, widely available susceptibility testing, and evidence demonstrating improved outcomes in resistant infections might enhance utilization. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: U.S. Food and Drug Administration; NIH Intramural Research Program.

Measures and Impact of Caseload Surge During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVES: COVID-19 pandemic surges strained hospitals globally. We performed a systematic review to examine measures of pandemic caseload surge and its impact on mortality of hospitalized patients. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science. STUDY SELECTION: English-language studies published between December 1, 2019, and November 22, 2023, which reported the association between pandemic "surge"-related measures and mortality in hospitalized patients. DATA EXTRACTION: Three authors independently screened studies, extracted data, and assessed individual study risk of bias. We assessed measures of surge qualitatively across included studies. Given multidomain heterogeneity, we semiquantitatively aggregated surge-mortality associations. DATA SYNTHESIS: Of 17,831 citations, we included 39 studies, 17 of which specifically described surge effects in ICU settings. The majority of studies were from high-income countries ( n = 35 studies) and included patients with COVID-19 ( n = 31). There were 37 different surge metrics which were mapped into four broad themes, incorporating caseloads either directly as unadjusted counts ( n = 11), nested in occupancy ( n = 14), including additional factors (e.g., resource needs, speed of occupancy; n = 10), or using indirect proxies (e.g., altered staffing ratios, alternative care settings; n = 4). Notwithstanding metric heterogeneity, 32 of 39 studies (82%) reported detrimental adjusted odds/hazard ratio for caseload surge-mortality outcomes, reporting point estimates of up to four-fold increased risk of mortality. This signal persisted among study subgroups categorized by publication year, patient types, clinical settings, and country income status. CONCLUSIONS: Pandemic caseload surge was associated with lower survival across most studies regardless of jurisdiction, timing, and population. Markedly variable surge strain measures precluded meta-analysis and findings have uncertain generalizability to lower-middle-income countries (LMICs). These findings underscore the need for establishing a consensus surge metric that is sensitive to capturing harms in everyday fluctuations and future pandemics and is scalable to LMICs.

Development of hybrid electrospun alginate-pulverized moringa composites.

The consideration of biopolymers with natural products offers promising and effective materials with intrinsic and extrinsic properties that are utilized in several applications. Electrospinning is a method known for its unique and efficient performance in developing polymer-based nanofibers with tunable and diverse properties presented as good surface area, morphology, porosity, and fiber diameters during fabrication. In this work, we have developed an electrospun sodium alginate (SA) incorporated with pulverized Moringa oleifera seed powder (PMO) as a potential natural biosorbent material for water treatment applications. The developed fibers when observed using a scanning electron microscope (SEM), presented pure sodium alginate with smooth fiber (SAF) characteristics of an average diameter of about 515.09 nm (±114.33). Addition of pulverized Moringa oleifera at 0.5%, 2%, 4%, 6%, and 8% (w/w) reduces the fiber diameter to an average of about 240 nm with a few spindle-like pulverized Moringa oleifera particles beads of 300 nm (±77.97) 0.5% particle size and 110 nm (±32.19) with the clear observation of rougher spindle-like pulverized Moringa oleifera particle beads of 680 nm (±131.77) at 8% of alginate/Moringa oleifera fiber (AMF). The results from the rheology presented characteristic shear-thinning or pseudoplastic behaviour with a decline in viscosity, with characteristic behaviour as the shear rate increases, indicative of an ideal polymer solution suitable for the spinning process. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) shows the presence of amine and amide functional groups are prevalent on the alginate-impregnated moringa with water stability nanofibers and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) with change in degradation properties in a clear indication and successful incorporation of the Moringa oleifera in the electrospun fiber. The key findings from this study position nanofibers as sustainable composites fiber for potential applications in water treatment, especifically heavy metal adsorption.

Trends in Patient Transfers From Overall and Caseload-Strained US Hospitals During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: Transferring patients to other hospitals because of inpatient saturation or need for higher levels of care was often challenging during the early waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding how transfer patterns evolved over time and amid hospital overcrowding could inform future care delivery and load balancing efforts. Objective: To evaluate trends in outgoing transfers at overall and caseload-strained hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic vs prepandemic times. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used data for adult patients at continuously reporting US hospitals in the PINC-AI Healthcare Database. Data analysis was performed from February to July 2023. Exposures: Pandemic wave, defined as wave 1 (March 1, 2020, to May 31, 2020), wave 2 (June 1, 2020, to September 30, 2020), wave 3 (October 1, 2020, to June 19, 2021), Delta (June 20, 2021, to December 18, 2021), and Omicron (December 19, 2021, to February 28, 2022). Main Outcomes and Measures: Weekly trends in cumulative mean daily acute care transfers from all hospitals were assessed by COVID-19 status, hospital urbanicity, and census index (calculated as daily inpatient census divided by nominal bed capacity). At each hospital, the mean difference in transfer counts was calculated using pairwise comparisons of pandemic (vs prepandemic) weeks in the same census index decile and averaged across decile hospitals in each wave. For top decile (ie, high-surge) hospitals, fold changes (and 95% CI) in transfers were adjusted for hospital-level factors and seasonality. Results: At 681 hospitals (205 rural [30.1%] and 476 urban [69.9%]; 360 [52.9%] small with <200 beds and 321 [47.1%] large with ≥200 beds), the mean (SD) weekly outgoing transfers per hospital remained lower than the prepandemic mean of 12.1 (10.4) transfers per week for most of the pandemic, ranging from 8.5 (8.3) transfers per week during wave 1 to 11.9 (10.7) transfers per week during the Delta wave. Despite more COVID-19 transfers, overall transfers at study hospitals cumulatively decreased during each high national surge period. At 99 high-surge hospitals, compared with a prepandemic baseline, outgoing acute care transfers decreased in wave 1 (fold change -15.0%; 95% CI, -22.3% to -7.0%; P < .001), returned to baseline during wave 2 (2.2%; 95% CI, -4.3% to 9.2%; P = .52), and displayed a sustained increase in subsequent waves: 19.8% (95% CI, 14.3% to 25.4%; P < .001) in wave 3, 19.2% (95% CI, 13.4% to 25.4%; P < .001) in the Delta wave, and 15.4% (95% CI, 7.8% to 23.5%; P < .001) in the Omicron wave. Observed increases were predominantly limited to small urban hospitals, where transfers peaked (48.0%; 95% CI, 36.3% to 60.8%; P < .001) in wave 3, whereas large urban and small rural hospitals displayed little to no increases in transfers from baseline throughout the pandemic. Conclusions and Relevance: Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, study hospitals reported paradoxical decreases in overall patient transfers during each high-surge period. Caseload-strained rural (vs urban) hospitals with fewer than 200 beds were unable to proportionally increase transfers. Prevailing vulnerabilities in flexing transfer capabilities for care or capacity reasons warrant urgent attention.

Improving Sepsis Outcomes in the Era of Pay-for-Performance and Electronic Quality Measures: A Joint IDSA/ACEP/PIDS/SHEA/SHM/SIDP Position Paper.

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) introduced the Severe Sepsis/Septic Shock Management Bundle (SEP-1) as a pay-for-reporting measure in 2015 and is now planning to make it a pay-for-performance measure by incorporating it into the Hospital Value-Based Purchasing Program. This joint IDSA/ACEP/PIDS/SHEA/SHM/SIPD position paper highlights concerns with this change. Multiple studies indicate that SEP-1 implementation was associated with increased broad-spectrum antibiotic use, lactate measurements, and aggressive fluid resuscitation for patients with suspected sepsis but not with decreased mortality rates. Increased focus on SEP-1 risks further diverting attention and resources from more effective measures and comprehensive sepsis care. We recommend retiring SEP-1 rather than using it in a payment model and shifting instead to new sepsis metrics that focus on patient outcomes. CMS is developing a community-onset sepsis 30-day mortality electronic clinical quality measure (eCQM) that is an important step in this direction. The eCQM preliminarily identifies sepsis using systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria, antibiotic administrations or diagnosis codes for infection or sepsis, and clinical indicators of acute organ dysfunction. We support the eCQM but recommend removing SIRS criteria and diagnosis codes to streamline implementation, decrease variability between hospitals, maintain vigilance for patients with sepsis but without SIRS, and avoid promoting antibiotic use in uninfected patients with SIRS. We further advocate for CMS to harmonize the eCQM with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Adult Sepsis Event surveillance metric to promote unity in federal measures, decrease reporting burden for hospitals, and facilitate shared prevention initiatives. These steps will result in a more robust measure that will encourage hospitals to pay more attention to the full breadth of sepsis care, stimulate new innovations in diagnosis and treatment, and ultimately bring us closer to our shared goal of improving outcomes for patients.

Impact of Surge Strain and Pandemic Progression on Prognostication by an Established COVID-19-Specific Severity Score.

IMPORTANCE: Many U.S. State crisis standards of care (CSC) guidelines incorporated Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), a sepsis-related severity score, in pandemic triage algorithms. However, SOFA performed poorly in COVID-19. Although disease-specific scores may perform better, their prognostic utility over time and in overcrowded care settings remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: We evaluated prognostication by the modified 4C (m4C) score, a COVID-19-specific prognosticator that demonstrated good predictive capacity early in the pandemic, as a potential tool to standardize triage across time and hospital-surge environments. DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort study. SETTING: Two hundred eighty-one U.S. hospitals in an administrative healthcare dataset. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 298,379 hospitalized adults with COVID-19 were identified from March 1, 2020, to January 31, 2022. m4C scores were calculated from admission diagnosis codes, vital signs, and laboratory values. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Hospital-surge index, a severity-weighted measure of COVID-19 caseload, was calculated for each hospital-month. Discrimination of in-hospital mortality by m4C and surge index-adjusted models was measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). Calibration was assessed by training models on early pandemic waves and measuring fit (deviation from bisector) in subsequent waves. RESULTS: From March 2020 to January 2022, 298,379 adults with COVID-19 were admitted across 281 U.S. hospitals. m4C adequately discriminated mortality in wave 1 (AUC 0.779 [95% CI, 0.769-0.789]); discrimination was lower in subsequent waves (wave 2: 0.772 [95% CI, 0.765-0.779]; wave 3: 0.746 [95% CI, 0.743-0.750]; delta: 0.707 [95% CI, 0.702-0.712]; omicron: 0.729 [95% CI, 0.721-0.738]). m4C demonstrated reduced calibration in contemporaneous waves that persisted despite periodic recalibration. Performance characteristics were similar with and without adjustment for surge. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Mortality prediction by the m4C score remained robust to surge strain, making it attractive for when triage is most needed. However, score performance has deteriorated in recent waves. CSC guidelines relying on defined prognosticators, especially for dynamic disease processes like COVID-19, warrant frequent reappraisal to ensure appropriate resource allocation.