Association of a device-based remote management heart failure pathway with outcomes: TriageHF Plus real-world evaluation.

AIMS: Clinical pathways have been shown to improve outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). Although patients with HF often have a cardiac implantable electronic device, few studies have reported the utility of device-derived risk scores to augment and organize care. TriageHF Plus is a device-based HF clinical pathway (DHFP) that uses remote monitoring alerts to trigger structured telephone assessment for HF stability and optimization. We aimed to evaluate the impact of TriageHF Plus on hospitalizations and describe the associated workforce burden. METHODS AND RESULTS: TriageHF Plus was a multi-site, prospective study that compared outcomes for patients recruited between April 2019 and February 2021. All alert-triggered assessments were analysed to determine the appropriateness of the alert and the workload burden. A negative-binomial regression with inverse probability treatment weighting using a time-matched usual care cohort was applied to estimate the effect of TriageHF Plus on non-elective hospitalizations. A post hoc pre-COVID-19 sensitivity analysis was also performed. The TriageHF Plus cohort (n = 443) had a mean age of 68.8 ± 11.2 years, 77% male (usual care cohort: n = 315, mean age of 66.2 ± 14.5 years, 65% male). In the TriageHF Plus cohort, an acute medical issue was identified following an alert in 79/182 (43%) cases. Fifty assessments indicated acute HF, requiring clinical action in 44 cases. At 30 day follow-up, 39/66 (59%) of initially symptomatic patients reported improvement, and 20 (19%) initially asymptomatic patients had developed new symptoms. On average, each assessment took 10 min. The TriageHF Plus group had a 58% lower rate of hospitalizations across full follow-up [incidence relative ratio: 0.42, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.23-0.76, P = 0.004]. Across the pre-COVID-19 window, hospitalizations were 31% lower (0.69, 95% CI: 0.46-1.04, P = 0.077). CONCLUSIONS: These data represent the largest real-world evaluation of a DHFP based on multi-parametric risk stratification. The TriageHF Plus clinical pathway was associated with an improvement in HF symptoms and reduced all-cause hospitalizations.

External validation of a minimal-resource model to predict reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate in people with type 2 diabetes without diagnosis of chronic kidney disease in Mexico: a comparison between country-level and regional performance.

Background: Patients with type 2 diabetes are at an increased risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) hence it is recommended that they receive annual CKD screening. The huge burden of diabetes in Mexico and limited screening resource mean that CKD screening is underperformed. Consequently, patients often have a late diagnosis of CKD. A regional minimal-resource model to support risk-tailored CKD screening in patients with type 2 diabetes has been developed and globally validated. However, population heath and care services between countries within a region are expected to differ. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the model within Mexico and compare this with the performance demonstrated within the Americas in the global validation. Methods: We performed a retrospective observational study with data from primary care (Clinic Specialized in Diabetes Management in Mexico City), tertiary care (Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán) and the Mexican national survey of health and nutrition (ENSANUT-MC 2016). We applied the minimal-resource model across the datasets and evaluated model performance metrics, with the primary interest in the sensitivity and increase in the positive predictive value (PPV) compared to a screen-everyone approach. Results: The model was evaluated on 2510 patients from Mexico (primary care: 1358, tertiary care: 735, ENSANUT-MC: 417). Across the Mexico data, the sensitivity was 0.730 (95% CI: 0.689 - 0.779) and the relative increase in PPV was 61.0% (95% CI: 52.1% - 70.8%). These were not statistically different to the regional performance metrics for the Americas (sensitivity: p=0.964; relative improvement: p=0.132), however considerable variability was observed across the data sources. Conclusion: The minimal-resource model performs consistently in a representative Mexican population sample compared with the Americas regional performance. In primary care settings where screening is underperformed and access to laboratory testing is limited, the model can act as a risk-tailored CKD screening solution, directing screening resources to patients who are at highest risk.

Diagnosis codes underestimate chronic kidney disease incidence compared with eGFR-based evidence: a retrospective observational study of patients with type 2 diabetes in UK primary care.

BACKGROUND: Type two diabetes (T2D) is a leading cause of both chronic kidney disease (CKD) and onward progression to end-stage renal disease. Timely diagnosis coding of CKD in patients with T2D could lead to improvements in quality of care and patient outcomes. AIM: To assess the consistency between estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)-based evidence of CKD and CKD diagnosis coding in UK primary care. DESIGN & SETTING: A retrospective analysis of electronic health record data in a cohort of people with T2D from 60 primary care centres within England between 2012 and 2022. METHOD: We estimated the incidence rate of CKD per 100 person-years using eGFR-based CKD and diagnosis codes. Logistic regression was applied to establish which attributes were associated with diagnosis coding. Time from eGFR-based CKD to entry of a diagnosis code was summarised using the median and interquartile range. RESULTS: The overall incidence of CKD was 2.32 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.24 to 2.41) and significantly higher for eGFR-based criteria than diagnosis codes: 1.98 (95% CI = 1.90 to 2.05) versus 1.06 (95% CI = 1.00 to 1.11), respectively; P<0.001. Only 45.4% of CKD incidences identified using eGFR-based criteria had a corresponding diagnosis code. Patients who were younger, had a higher CKD stage (G4), had an observed urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (A1), or no observed HbA1c in the past year were more likely to have a diagnosis code. CONCLUSION: Diagnosis coding of patients with eGFR-based evidence of CKD in UK primary care is poor within patients with T2D, despite CKD being a well-known complication of diabetes.

Healthcare utilisation in patients with long-term conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic: a population-based observational study of all patients across Greater Manchester, UK.

OBJECTIVES: Data on population healthcare utilisation (HCU) across both primary and secondary care during the COVID-19 pandemic are lacking. We describe primary and secondary HCU stratified by long-term conditions (LTCs) and deprivation, during the first 19 months of COVID-19 pandemic across a large urban area in the UK. DESIGN: A retrospective, observational study. SETTING: All primary and secondary care organisations that contributed to the Greater Manchester Care Record throughout 30 December 2019 to 1 August 2021. PARTICIPANTS: 3 225 169 patients who were registered with or attended a National Health Service primary or secondary care service during the study period. PRIMARY OUTCOMES: Primary care HCU (incident prescribing and recording of healthcare information) and secondary care HCU (planned and unplanned admissions) were assessed. RESULTS: The first national lockdown was associated with reductions in all primary HCU measures, ranging from 24.7% (24.0% to 25.5%) for incident prescribing to 84.9% (84.2% to 85.5%) for cholesterol monitoring. Secondary HCU also dropped significantly for planned (47.4% (42.9% to 51.5%)) and unplanned admissions (35.3% (28.3% to 41.6%)). Only secondary care had significant reductions in HCU during the second national lockdown. Primary HCU measures had not recovered to prepandemic levels by the end of the study. The secondary admission rate ratio between multi-morbid patients and those without LTCs increased during the first lockdown by a factor of 2.40 (2.05 to 2.82; p<0.001) for planned admissions and 1.25 (1.07 to 1.47; p=0.006) for unplanned admissions. No significant changes in this ratio were observed in primary HCU. CONCLUSION: Major changes in primary and secondary HCU were observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Secondary HCU reduced more in those without LTCs and the ratio of utilisation between patients from the most and least deprived areas increased for the majority of HCU measures. Overall primary and secondary care HCU for some LTC groups had not returned to prepandemic levels by the end of the study.

Development of minimal resource pre-screening tools for chronic kidney disease in people with type 2 diabetes.

Regular chronic kidney disease (CKD) screening can facilitate earlier diagnosis of CKD and preventative action to reduce the risk of CKD progression. People with type 2 diabetes are at a higher risk of developing CKD; hence, it is recommended that they undergo annual screening. However, resources may be limited, particularly in lower-to-middle income countries, and those at the highest risk of having an abnormal CKD screening result should be prioritised for screening. We have developed models to determine which patients are at a high risk of renal impairment. We have shown that, for people with type 2 diabetes and no previous diagnosis of CKD stage 3-5, it is possible to use age, gender, body mass index, duration of type 2 diabetes and blood pressure information to detect those at a higher risk of a reduced glomerular filtration rate. When blood measurements are available, triglyceride and cholesterol measurements can be used to improve the estimate of the risk. Even though risk factors were associated with an increased urine albumin:creatinine ratio, we found no clinical benefit of using the model over a screen-all approach.

Remotely Monitored Cardiac Implantable Electronic Device Data Predict All-Cause and Cardiovascular Unplanned Hospitalization.

Background Unplanned hospitalizations are common in patients with cardiovascular disease. The "Triage Heart Failure Risk Status" (Triage-HFRS) algorithm in patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices uses data from up to 9 device-derived physiological parameters to stratify patients as low/medium/high risk of 30-day heart failure (HF) hospitalization, but its use to predict all-cause hospitalization has not been explored. We examined the association between Triage-HFRS and risk of all-cause, cardiovascular, or HF hospitalization. Methods and Results A prospective observational study of 435 adults (including patients with and without HF) with a Medtronic Triage-HFRS-enabled cardiac implantable electronic device (cardiac resynchronization therapy device, implantable cardioverter-defibrillator, or pacemaker). Cox proportional hazards models explored association between Triage-HFRS and time to hospitalization; a frailty term at the patient level accounted for repeated measures. A total of 274 of 435 patients (63.0%) transmitted ≥1 high HFRS transmission before or during the study period. The remaining 161 patients never transmitted a high HFRS. A total of 153 (32.9%) patients had ≥1 unplanned hospitalization during the study period, totaling 356 nonelective hospitalizations. A high HFRS conferred a 37.3% sensitivity and an 86.2% specificity for 30-day all-cause hospitalization; and for HF hospitalizations, these numbers were 62.5% and 85.6%, respectively. Compared with a low Triage-HFRS, a high HFRS conferred a 4.2 relative risk of 30-day all-cause hospitalization (8.5% versus 2.0%), a 5.0 relative risk of 30-day cardiovascular hospitalization (3.6% versus 0.7%), and a 7.7 relative risk of 30-day HF hospitalization (2.0% versus 0.3%). Conclusions In patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices, remotely monitored Triage-HFRS data discriminated between patients at high and low risk of all-cause hospitalization (cardiovascular or noncardiovascular) in real time.

Examining the effect of evaluation sample size on the sensitivity and specificity of COVID-19 diagnostic tests in practice: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: In response to the global COVID-19 pandemic, many in vitro diagnostic (IVD) tests for SARS-CoV-2 have been developed. Given the urgent clinical demand, researchers must balance the desire for precise estimates of sensitivity and specificity against the need for rapid implementation. To complement estimates of precision used for sample size calculations, we aimed to estimate the probability that an IVD will fail to perform to expected standards after implementation, following clinical studies with varying sample sizes. METHODS: We assumed that clinical validation study estimates met the 'desirable' performance (sensitivity 97%, specificity 99%) in the target product profile (TPP) published by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA). To estimate the real-world impact of imprecision imposed by sample size we used Bayesian posterior calculations along with Monte Carlo simulations with 10,000 independent iterations of 5,000 participants. We varied the prevalence between 1 and 15% and the sample size between 30 and 2,000. For each sample size, we estimated the probability that diagnostic accuracy would fail to meet the TPP criteria after implementation. RESULTS: For a validation study that demonstrates 'desirable' sensitivity within a sample of 30 participants who test positive for COVID-19 using the reference standard, the probability that real-world performance will fail to meet the 'desirable' criteria is 10.7-13.5%, depending on prevalence. Theoretically, demonstrating the 'desirable' performance in 90 positive participants would reduce that probability to below 5%. A marked reduction in the probability of failure to hit 'desirable' specificity occurred between samples of 100 (19.1-21.5%) and 160 (4.3-4.8%) negative participants. There was little further improvement above sample sizes of 160 negative participants. CONCLUSION: Based on imprecision alone, small evaluation studies can lead to the acceptance of diagnostic tests which are likely to fail to meet performance targets when deployed. There is diminished return on uncertainty surrounding an accuracy estimate above a total sample size of 250 (90 positive and 160 negative).

Scale-up of ABC care bundle for intracerebral haemorrhage across two hyperacute stroke units in one region in England: a mixed methods evaluation of a quality improvement project.

BACKGROUND: Intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) accounts for 10%-15% of strokes in the UK, but is responsible for half of all annual global stroke deaths. The ABC bundle for ICH was developed and implemented at Salford Royal Hospital, and was associated with a 44% reduction in 30-day case fatality. Implementation of the bundle was scaled out to the other hyperacute stroke units (HASUs) in the region from April 2017. A mixed methods evaluation was conducted alongside to investigate factors influencing implementation of the bundle across new settings, in order to provide lessons for future spread. METHODS: A harmonised quality improvement registry at each HASU captured consecutive patients with spontaneous ICH from October 2016 to March 2018 to capture process and outcome measures for preimplementation (October 2016 to March 2017) and implementation (April 2017 to March 2018) time periods. Statistical analyses were performed to determine differences in process measures and outcomes before and during implementation. Multiple qualitative methods (interviews, non-participant observation and project document analysis) captured how the bundle was implemented across the HASUs. RESULTS: HASU1 significantly reduced median anticoagulant reversal door-to-needle time from 132 min (IQR: 117-342) preimplementation to 76 min (64-113.5) after implementation and intensive blood pressure lowering door to target time from 345 min (204-866) preimplementation to 84 min (60-117) after implementation. No statistically significant improvements in process targets were observed at HASU2. No significant change was seen in 30-day mortality at either HASU. Qualitative evaluation identified the importance of facilitation during implementation and identified how contextual changes over time impacted on implementation. This identified the need for continued implementation support. CONCLUSION: The findings show how the ABC bundle can be successfully implemented into new settings and how challenges can impede implementation. Findings have been used to develop an implementation strategy to support future roll out of the bundle outside the region.

Remote monitoring data from cardiac implantable electronic devices predicts all-cause mortality.

AIMS: To determine if remotely monitored physiological data from cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs) can be used to identify patients at high risk of mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study evaluated whether a risk score based on CIED physiological data (Triage-Heart Failure Risk Status, 'Triage-HFRS', previously validated to predict heart failure (HF) events) can identify patients at high risk of death. Four hundred and thirty-nine adults with CIEDs were prospectively enrolled. Primary observed outcome was all-cause mortality (median follow-up: 702 days). Several physiological parameters [including heart rate profile, atrial fibrillation/tachycardia (AF/AT) burden, ventricular rate during AT/AF, physical activity, thoracic impedance, therapies for ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation] were continuously monitored by CIEDs and dynamically combined to produce a Triage-HFRS every 24 h. According to transmissions patients were categorized into 'high-risk' or 'never high-risk' groups. During follow-up, 285 patients (65%) had a high-risk episode and 60 patients (14%) died (50 in high-risk group; 10 in never high-risk group). Significantly more cardiovascular deaths were observed in the high-risk group, with mortality rates across groups of high vs. never-high 10.3% vs. <4.0%; P = 0.03. Experiencing any high-risk episode was associated with a substantially increased risk of death [odds ratio (OR): 3.07, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.57-6.58, P = 0.002]. Furthermore, each high-risk episode ≥14 consecutive days was associated with increased odds of death (OR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.06-1.48; P = 0.006). CONCLUSION: Remote monitoring data from CIEDs can be used to identify patients at higher risk of all-cause mortality as well as HF events. Distinct from other prognostic scores, this approach is automated and continuously updated.

The prognostic value of emergency department measured hypertension: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The objective was to assess the prognostic value of hypertension detected in the emergency department (ED). METHODS: The ED presents a unique opportunity to predict long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes with its potential for high-footfall, and large-scale routine data collection applied to underserved patient populations. A systematic review and meta-analyses were conducted to assess the prognostic performance and feasibility of ED-measured hypertension as a risk factor for long-term CVD outcomes. We searched MEDLINE and Embase databases and gray literature sources. The target populations were undifferentiated ED patients. The prognostic factor of interest was hypertension. Feasibility outcomes included prevalence, reliability, and follow-up attendance. Meta-analyses were performed for feasibility using a random effect and exact likelihood. RESULTS: The searches identified 1072 studies after title and abstract review, 53 studies had their full text assessed for eligibility, and 26 studies were included. Significant heterogeneity was identified, likely due to the international populations and differing study design. The meta-analyses estimate of prevalence for ED-measured hypertension was 0.31 (95% confidence interval  0.25-0.37). ED hypertension was persistent outside the ED (FE estimate of 0.50). The proportion of patients attending follow-up was low with an exact likelihood estimate of 0.41. Three studies examined the prognostic performance of hypertension and demonstrated an increased risk of long-term CVD outcomes. CONCLUSION: Hypertension can be measured feasibly in the ED and consequently used in a long-term cardiovascular risk prediction model. There is an opportunity to intervene in targeted individuals, using routinely collected data.

Differences in Characteristics and Ambulance Pathway Adherence Between Strokes and Mimics Presenting to a Large UK Centralized Hyper Acute Stroke Unit (HASU).

Background: In Greater Manchester (GM), prehospital clinicians use the Face Arm Speech Test (FAST) to identify suspected stroke patients alongside pathway exclusions. Within the centralized stroke service, patients with a suspected stroke are taken directly to a Hyper Acute Stroke Unit (HASU), often bypassing their local emergency department (ED). However, many of these patients are experiencing an illness that looks like a stroke but is not a stroke. The data collected in the prehospital setting is rarely used in research yet could give valuable insights into the performance of the pathway. Aim: To evaluate the presenting symptoms and final diagnoses of prehospital suspected strokes and to evaluate the adherence of prehospital stroke pathway exclusions. Methods: We analyzed data from all patients brought in by ambulance and admitted on the stroke pathway between 01/09/15 and 28/02/17. Patient demographics and all data recorded in the prehospital setting were evaluated to identify differences in stroke, TIA, and mimic patients. Pathway adherence was assessed according to whether the patient was local or out-of-area (OOA) and bypassed their local ED. Results: A total of 4,216 suspected strokes were identified: 2,213 (52.5%) had a final diagnosis of stroke, 492 (11.7%) experienced a transient ischemic attack (TIA), and 1,511 (35.8%) were stroke mimics. There were 714 (16.9%) patients that were identified as having at least one pathway exclusion or were FAST negative, of which 270 (37.8%) experienced a stroke. The proportion of strokes was significantly lower in those with a pathway exclusion (41.8 vs. 53.5%; p < 0.001) and the proportion of breaches tended to be comparable or higher in the local population. Discussion: There are high volumes of stroke mimics but identified differences indicate there is an opportunity to better utilize prehospital data. Ambulance clinicians were able to correctly overrule FAST negative results and the volume of these suggest that FAST alone may be too restrictive.

Are do-not-resuscitate orders associated with limitations of care beyond their intended purpose in patients with acute intracerebral haemorrhage? Analysis of the ABC-ICH study.

Implementation of an acute bundle of care for intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) was associated with a marked improvement in survival at our centre, mediated by a reduction in early (<24 hours) do-not-resuscitate (DNR) orders. The aim of this study was to identify possible mechanisms for this mediation. We retrospectively extracted additional data on resuscitation attempts and supportive care. This observational study utilised existing data collected for the Acute Bundle of Care for ICH (ABC-ICH) quality improvement project between from 2013 to 2017. The primary outcome was whether a patient received an early (<24 hours) DNR order. We used multivariable logistic regression to estimate the adjusted association between clinically meaningful factors, including an indicator for a change in treatment on the introduction of the ABC care bundle. Early DNR orders were associated with a reduced odds of escalation to critical care (OR: 0.07, 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.17, p<0.001). Commencement of palliative care within 72 hours was far more likely (OR: 8.76, 95% CI: 4.74 to 16.61, p<0.001) if an early DNR was in place. The cardiac arrest team were not called for an ICH patient before implementation but were called on five occasions overall during and after implementation. Further qualitative evaluation revealed that on only one occasion was there a cardiac or respiratory arrest with cardiopulmonary resuscitation performed. We found no significant increase in resuscitation attempts after bundle implementation but early DNR orders were associated with less admission to critical care and more early palliation. Early DNR orders are associated with less aggressive supportive care and should be judiciously used in acute ICH.

Toward a framework for the design, implementation, and reporting of methodology scoping reviews.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: In view of the growth of published articles, there is an increasing need for studies that summarize scientific research. An increasingly common review is a "methodology scoping review," which provides a summary of existing analytical methods, techniques and software that have been proposed or applied in research articles to address an analytical problem or further an analytical approach. However, guidelines for their design, implementation, and reporting are limited. METHODS: Drawing on the experiences of the authors, which were consolidated through a series of face-to-face workshops, we summarize the challenges inherent in conducting a methodology scoping review and offer suggestions of best practice to promote future guideline development. RESULTS: We identified three challenges of conducting a methodology scoping review. First, identification of search terms; one cannot usually define the search terms a priori, and the language used for a particular method can vary across the literature. Second, the scope of the review requires careful consideration because new methodology is often not described (in full) within abstracts. Third, many new methods are motivated by a specific clinical question, where the methodology may only be documented in supplementary materials. We formulated several recommendations that build upon existing review guidelines. These recommendations ranged from an iterative approach to defining search terms through to screening and data extraction processes. CONCLUSION: Although methodology scoping reviews are an important aspect of research, there is currently a lack of guidelines to standardize their design, implementation, and reporting. We recommend a wider discussion on this topic.

An Intracerebral Hemorrhage Care Bundle Is Associated with Lower Case Fatality.

OBJECTIVE: Anticoagulation reversal, intensive blood pressure lowering, neurosurgery, and access to critical care might all be beneficial in acute intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We combined and implemented these as the "ABC" hyperacute care bundle and sought to determine whether the implementation was associated with lower case fatality. METHODS: The ABC bundle was implemented from June 1, 2015 to May 31, 2016. Key process targets were set, and a registry captured consecutive patients. We compared 30-day case fatality before, during, and after bundle implementation with multivariate logistic regression and used mediation analysis to determine which care process measures mediated any association. Difference-in-difference analysis compared 30-day case fatality with 32,295 patients with ICH from 214 other hospitals in England and Wales using Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme data. RESULTS: A total of 973 ICH patients were admitted in the study period. Compared to before implementation, the adjusted odds of death by 30 days were lower in the implementation period (odds ratio [OR] = 0.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.38-0.97, p = 0.03), and this was sustained after implementation (OR = 0.40, 95% CI = 0.24-0.61, p < 0.0001). Implementation of the bundle was associated with a 10.8 percentage point (95% CI = -17.9 to -3.7, p = 0.003) reduction in 30-day case fatality in difference-in-difference analysis. The total effect of the care bundle was mediated by a reduction in do-not-resuscitate orders within 24 hours (52.8%) and increased admission to critical care (11.1%). INTERPRETATION: Implementation of the ABC care bundle was significantly associated with lower 30-day case fatality after ICH. ANN NEUROL 2019;86:495-503.